First Base Options

Dave · December 19, 2009 at 10:00 pm · Filed Under Mariners 

I know the excitement-o-meter is off the charts right now, and the last week has raised everyone’s expectations for how Jack is going to finish the off-season. First base is the obvious next step, and since they got Cliff Lee, why not dream about Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, Lance Berkman, or Joey Votto, right?

The problem, though, is that you can only acquire players who the other team wants to trade. And there’s just no real signs that any of those guys are available right now. You can want them to be, but if they aren’t, they aren’t. They may be available at some point in the future, but as of today, the odds of getting any of those kinds of players are slim, and the price you would have to pay to get it done is prohibitive.

That is why, in reality, I think the M’s are going to end up spending $4 to $5 million on a solid, non-star first baseman for 2010. They have around $10 million or so left in the budget, and I’d expect them to save some cash to sign one of the injury prone/old starting pitchers on the market, whether that be Erik Bedard, Ben Sheets, John Smoltz, Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, or whoever. I also get the feeling that they’re going to sign a reliever, and they’d love to have a lefty for Wak to use in the 7th/8th innings. So, saving some cash and getting a less sexy name at first base is probably the way to go. And if something opens up for a bigger acquisition down the line, you can evaluate whether it’s the right move then.

Essentially, here are the options that I’m aware of as of now:

Via Trade:

Lyle Overbay, Toronto

The classic average first baseman. He doesn’t do anything well or poorly. He makes okay contact. He draws some walks. He hits for some power. His defense at first is fine. He’s just average across the board, offering little risk and little upside. Given the M’s roster, that’s actually a pretty valuable piece, because he’s the kind of player you can count on without worrying about significant variance. The win or two he would add over Mike Carp is pretty important in terms of the M’s playoff chances, so even if he’s not exciting, it is a real upgrade and potentially worth pursuing.

He’s due $7 million in the final year of his contract, then he’s a free agent. You could probably get the Blue Jays to kick in a couple million if the M’s were willing to take him, as they just acquired Brett Wallace to be their first baseman of the future, and Overbay is just in his way. As a one year fill-in who didn’t cost much, he could help the team score some runs and not be a big obstacle if the Padres put Gonzalez on the market in July. The price has to be right, though, and that depends on Toronto’s desire to move him.

Luke Scott, Baltimore

Scott, we’ve talked about. An outfielder who is willing to transition to first base and could probably be acquired for the right price, he’s arbitration eligible and will make around $4 million in 2010. Lefty with power and patience who strikes out a bit, he’s similar in total value to Overbay, though he also offers the defensive flexibility to be able to play the outfield if need be, and the M’s could keep him past 2010 if he had a good season. Whether those positives outweigh the cost of acquiring him from the Orioles, who would not give him away, is a pretty big factor.

Ryan Doumit, Pittsburgh

Another guy we’ve talked about as a potential fit for the team. He offers a bit more risk and upside than either Overbay or Scott, as he’s young and could catch part-time, giving the M’s the chance to get some offense from behind the plate while offering insurance if either Moore or Johnson are not ready for the start of the season. He’s also a switch-hitter, so from a flexibility standpoint, it would be hard to do better. Lots of downsides, though – he’s coming off a bad season, he’s had wrist injury issues which are known to sap power, and he has next to no experience at first base. He’s also an overly aggressive hitter, which the M’s are in the process of getting away from. That’s a lot of extra risk for the M’s to be taking on, though the upside is there.

He’s under contract for $3.5 million in 2010 and $5 million in 2011, so the contract is right. Pittsburgh would want something useful in return, though, so like Scott, the M’s may decide that they’re better off acquiring a cast-off that won’t cost them any talent and could offer similar production, even if it comes with less flexibility.

Willy Aybar, Tampa Bay

A bit of a personal favorite, he’d be an upside play, kind of in the mold of what the M’s did with Gutierrez and Aardsma a year ago. A switch hitter with gap power and good contact skills, he has the tools to be an above average hitter, but the results haven’t been there the last two years due to low BABIPs. Some players really are true talent .270 BABIP guys, but we’re still dealing with a small sample on Aybar, and we shouldn’t conclude that he is just yet.

He’l be 27 next year, and remains on my list of guys who could take a big step forward if given regular playing time. He also has experience at both 3rd and 2nd (though he may getting too large for second base, especially on a team that values defense), offering the positional flexibility that the team likes. In a lot of ways, he’s a really good fit for the roster.

Unfortunately, he plays for Tampa Bay, and they are the hardest team in the league to trade with. They value their young, cost-controlled players and are reluctant to make any deal that is not a heist for their franchise. They know that Aybar has some upside, and given his team friendly contract, they’re not likely to part with him unless they get something back that they like even more.

James Loney, Los Angeles

The gap between what Loney has been and could be is pretty large. He has tremendous contact skills, the kind of swing and frame that should generate power, and the athleticism of a guy who could be a really good defender at first base. Heading into his age 26 season, though, he has yet to translate the skills into performance.

His lack of power is the real problem at the moment. His ISO was just .118 last year, simply not good enough from a non-premium defender at the position. He has more juice in his bat, as he’s shown in the minors and in his 2007 season, but the power can only be hoped for, not expected. Despite the athleticism, his UZR is below average in nearly 4,000 innings at first base. And the walks don’t make up for the rest of the package.

The Dodgers are unlikely to give up on him so soon, so he won’t be easy to acquire. And yet, he just hasn’t produced at a level where the M’s should be comfortable paying a premium to acquire him in lieu of other available options. The upside makes him interesting, but the cost to acquire probably eliminates him from discussion.

Mat Gamel, Milwaukee

In some ways, Gamel makes a lot of sense. Jack drafted him in Milwaukee, so there’s not much of a question over whether they like what he brings to the table. A 23-year-old lefty who pounds the ball all over the field and draws a bunch of walks is certainly appealing to the M’s, and he’s basically major league ready. Rather than serving as a short term solution, he could help the team win in 2010 and beyond.

There are problems, though. He’s not good defensively, and probably won’t be anywhere. He lacks the physical abilities to be a quality glove guy. He also strikes out an awful lot and doesn’t have the power of a guy like Branyan, so you have to live with a bit lower average without getting the 35 homers. The doubles and walks make him a good hitter, but given his defensive issues, he’s not going to be a star unless he’s a great hitter. And, while Milwaukee probably would trade him if they got the right return, his price tag will be high.

He probably won’t outproduce the veteran options for 2010, so acquiring Gamel would be a move for the future. But if it takes a big part of the future to get him, is the team really better off? A Morrow-Gamel deal has been discussed, but it seems like neither team is really pushing for it. The M’s may be better off just getting a player who can produce in 2010 and worry about the future later.

Via Free Agency:

Adam LaRoche

Everything I said about Overbay is true about LaRoche. They’re very similar players. LaRoche has a tad more power, though he’s spent his career in the National League, so you have to adjust his numbers down a bit. He’s a good but not great hitter and an okay defender, and the overall package makes him about league average. The problem, though, is that his strong finish to the 2009 season has deluded him into thinking he’s worth significant money. Rumors have him asking for 3 years and $30 million. Anything more than 1/7 is an overpay in this market, so he’s probably out unless his agent can talk some sense into him.

Russ Branyan

As I mentioned the other day, the M’s already have enough health risks, and they may not want to compound that by bringing Branyan back and counting on him to play the field. His power makes him a good player when he’s healthy, but whether he’ll be able to play well or often is a real question. Even at a discount, the M’s might now be best suited going for a lesser player with a healthier profile.

Carlos Delgado

See Russ Branyan, just replace the herniated disc with knee problems and the fact that he’s almost 40.

Ryan Garko

The right-handed version of Overbay. He’s a decent enough player, but he’s better off somewhere else.

Eric Hinske

A useful platoon hitter who is a better defender than he’s usually given credit for, but the M’s aren’t going to run a platoon at first base, and Hinske isn’t that much better than Mike Carp. Probably not a real option.

Hank Blalock

He’s just not very good, and offers way too much risk with not enough reward.

Internal Candidates

Mike Carp

His strong performance in limited time in Seattle has probably inflated his actual value in the eyes of some fans. As a player, he’s similar to Overbay, just with less power and worse defense. He has good plate discipline, but lacks the power to be a really good hitter, and his contact skills are just fine, not exceptional. For this player type to work, you generally have to have excellent bat control and be terrific in the field, ala John Olerud or Mark Grace. Carp is not that kind of defender or contact hitter, leaving him shy of the major league skills needed to be a quality major league starter. He’s probably a +0 to +1 win player for 2010, and the upside is limited. He’d be cheap, but the team could do better.

Jose Lopez

This probably deserves it’s own post, but no, the team should not move Lopez to first base. He’s not so bad defensively that he’s killing the team at second, nor is he so good offensively that the team should be willing to make the move to keep his bat in the line-up. He’d probably be a decent defender relative to the average first baseman, but offensively, he’d be among the worst in the league. If you don’t want him playing second base, then you don’t want him on the team. And maybe you don’t, but this is a terrible market in which to try to trade a second baseman, and he has value at his production/cost level, so giving him away is pretty foolish. In reality, the M’s best option is probably to let him keep the spot warm for Dustin Ackley, hope he has a big year, and try to trade him again next winter.

Comments

143 Responses to “First Base Options”

  1. furlong on December 21st, 2009 5:58 am

    I think they already have the first baseman on the roster. Tui

  2. Mr. Egaas on December 21st, 2009 6:54 am

    I don’t really see Aybar as available. Aybar got some pretty good run last year (336 PAs) and this is when they still had Iwamura, hurt (260 PAs) for most of the year. They still likely want a partner for Pena and Zobrist. and Aybar is the perfect fit to fill that role.

    Aybar is really the only other 1B on their 40-man roster and fits a versatile bench role for pretty cheap, a commodity for that payroll.

    That said, I imagine this role gets filled by one of Overbay, LaRoche or Huff. None are exciting, but there is potential there. Personally, I’d like to see a run at Casey Kotchman who is an elite defender who should have some good offensive years in him (still only 26), a page out of the Gutierrez book of Zduriencik targets.

    Let’s not forget, the system is looking pretty thin at this point after giving up the trio of Aumont, Ramirez and Gillies. Can’t sacrifice the entire future at this point for a run now without seeing some execution first.

  3. joe simpson can hit on December 21st, 2009 6:56 am

    Mike Lowell is having ligament surgery in his thumb and won’t be playing for awhile.

    I’m still hanging on to my Doumit love. I blame Dave, who floated Doumit a while back.

  4. Mr. Egaas on December 21st, 2009 6:59 am

    I wouldn’t be entirely opposed to the idea of Mike Lowell at first base.

    I had thought about this too, and if it were a part of a platoon as a part time guy with the Red Sox putting up most of the bill, I may be on board.

    There’s a reason the defense has degraded. Lowell is getting old and slow. I don’t see it being much better at 1st than at 3rd. If you want to go “safe” with this roster spot, Lowell isn’t the answer.

    Dude is done.

  5. Miles on December 21st, 2009 7:03 am

    Let’s not forget, the system is looking pretty thin at this point after giving up the trio of Aumont, Ramirez and Gillies. Can’t sacrifice the entire future at this point for a run now without seeing some execution first.

    Yes, save the cookies for a mid-season aquisition. Sign someone who doesn’t cost years or specs or go with Carp. That is of course something comes along that is a no brainer.

    I wish we knew Branyan’s health status. Could you imagine his first half bat over the course of a whole season?

  6. Mere Tantalisers on December 21st, 2009 9:13 am

    Dave,
    Thanks for the post, I’ve been looking for a breakdown of the options.

    You omit Nick Swisher, who is capable of playing 1B and offers some flexibility. He’s a player you’ve advocated for in the past (and it is easy to see why) so I wonder why you leave him off now.

    I know the Yankees outfield is a little thin at the moment, but there are OFers on the market and filling the corners should not be difficult for them. On the other hand, they are shopping around for pitching, so it seems like a Morrow/Swisher package might fly. Probably it would be Morrow plus (Vargas/Olson/French?), but even so, but we’ve got some depth in 1 WAR pitchers while the Yanks are low having shipped Kennedy and Coke off for Granderson.

  7. codybond31 on December 21st, 2009 9:40 am

    Adam Dunn is the answer at 1B no question.

    Washington needs and would love a cheap 2B with power like Lopez. Add a young OF like Saunders to play CF for them, their sold.

    This would give us an infield of:
    1B-Dunn
    2B-Figgins
    SS-Wilson
    3B-Beltre*

    Yes we love our pitching and our defense, but why do people forget what has killed this team and annoyed fans to death? … No game-change, middle of the order, run producing, Power bat.

    Dunn answers that, plus gives us another Left handed bat.

  8. codybond31 on December 21st, 2009 9:41 am

    Adam Dunn is the answer at 1B no question.

    Washington needs and would love a cheap 2B with power like Lopez. Add a young OF like Saunders to play CF for them, their sold.

    This would give us an infield of:
    1B-Dunn
    2B-Figgins
    SS-Wilson
    3B-Beltre*

    Yes we love our pitching and our defense, but why do people forget what has killed this team and annoyed fans to death? … No game-change, middle of the order, run producing, Power bat.

    Dunn answers that, plus gives us another Left handed bat.

  9. Mere Tantalisers on December 21st, 2009 9:51 am

    Russell Branyan was a game changing middle of the order Power bat.

    What killed this team and annoyed fans to death was that C, 3B, SS, and LF were shamefully unproductive on offense. Two of those at least have been drastically improved, while the other two may or may not be better but certainly will not be worse.

    Dunn is just not worth it.

  10. joser on December 21st, 2009 9:56 am

    I think they already have the first baseman on the roster. Tui

    There are so many things wrong with this idea I’m just going to assume somebody was trying to be funny.

    You omit Nick Swisher, who is capable of playing 1B and offers some flexibility. He’s a player you’ve advocated for in the past (and it is easy to see why) so I wonder why you leave him off now.

    Because there’s no indication the Yankees want to move him, which means you’d have to trade valuable pieces to get him. To the Yankees. Morrow+ (likely a very big +) is too much to pay, particularly when there are other options.

    There are a bunch of other players Dave didn’t mention either despite expressing a like for them in the past.

  11. Dave on December 21st, 2009 9:57 am

    Jose Lopez and Michael Saunders for Adam Dunn – ladies and gentleman, the stupidest trade suggestion of the year.

  12. Mere Tantalisers on December 21st, 2009 9:59 am

    Washington needs outfielders something awful

  13. PackBob on December 21st, 2009 10:06 am

    Another thing to consider is that, with the Angels’ losses and the Ms gains, management might consider increasing the budget with the increased potential for a division championship. I think it would have to be something that clearly improved the team, rather than a potential improvement. Excitement is already high, and another “oh, wow!” trade or acquisition by Jack Z could really fill the stands, and the extra revenue could offset the increase in budget.

  14. Mere Tantalisers on December 21st, 2009 10:08 am

    Joser –
    Swisher is a three win player being paid like a 1.5 win player. Morrow plus isn’t too much depending what the plus is.

    Availability is certainly an issue, but just because he’s not being actively shopped doesn’t mean he’s can be made available. Loney, Scott and Aybar aren’t being actively shopped as well as far as I know.

  15. Adam B. on December 21st, 2009 10:11 am

    I could see Dunn being a fit down the line, But obviously you’re not going to get him in anything resembling that trade, and just like every other “pie in the sky” 1B people bring up, he might be a more realistic acquisition Seven months from now.

    Another mid-season acquisition I’d be interested in is Carlos Pena. He’s a free-agent next year, and if the AL East goes to New York and Boston again, Tampa Bay will probably be looking for some kind of return before he walks for some real cash.

  16. Dave on December 21st, 2009 10:17 am

    But obviously you’re not going to get him in anything resembling that trade…

    I can’t believe I have to clarify this. Lopez and Saunders for Dunn would be worse than the Bedard deal for the Mariners. Dunn has no real trade value. At $10 million, he’s probably a little bit overpaid. He’s a +2 win player, maybe +2.5 if you’re really generous.

    Lopez is a better player who makes 20% of the money. Trading him straight up for Dunn would be stupid. Throwing in the team’s best prospect, who you have six years of control over, is insane.

    Adam Dunn is not appreciably better than Overbay. And we’re talking about Toronto having to eat a couple million to get rid of him. You do not want Adam Dunn.

  17. Adam B. on December 21st, 2009 10:24 am

    Let me clarify my post. I wasn’t saying that Dunn was worth more then Saunders. He isn’t.

    I was just commenting on how poorly envisioned that trade would be for both teams.

    I could see something like Morrow for Dunn.

  18. Dave on December 21st, 2009 10:26 am

    I could see something like Morrow for Dunn.

    Let me re-clarify, then – $#!$*^$#@!

    ADAM DUNN IS NOT GOOD. DEFENSE MATTERS I CAN’T BELIEVE YOU GUYS STILL DON’T GET THIS ARRRRGH.

    Okay, I feel a little better now.

  19. Adam B. on December 21st, 2009 10:30 am

    In the interest of further Dave cussing…

    Even as a DH? 😉

  20. Dave on December 21st, 2009 10:32 am

    DH is filled. The team cannot carry any more guys who can’t play the field.

  21. Adam B. on December 21st, 2009 10:36 am

    DH is filled. The team cannot carry any more guys who can’t play the field.

    I agree, I was thinking more along the lines of a mid-season “improvement” acquisition in the event Griffey/Bradley are put on the DL or Saunders underperforms and Bradley shifts to LF.

    I understand that this may not be such a great idea.

  22. TumwaterMike on December 21st, 2009 10:44 am

    Has anybody thought about Micah Hoffpauir from the Cubs? He’s stuck behind Derek lee at 1B and seems like a good young player with some upside. Just a thought. Maybe a couple of mid level prospects for him.

  23. sp_da_man on December 21st, 2009 10:50 am

    I’d rather see SEA grab some FA on a 1-year deal/maybe a 2-year (team option) then trade for some of the underwhelming guys mentioned like Overbay, Scott, Loney, etc..

    With the market overloaded with 1B’s let wait it out a bit till the marlet comes down a bit then grab someone like LaRoche.

    I think Garko could be a sleeper though. He was having a pretty solid season last year till the great CLE fire sale of 09.

    Still pretty young, a good, not great hitter & plays good defense. Plus, maybe he & C. Lee are friends & that could help Lee’s transition.

  24. eponymous coward on December 21st, 2009 10:57 am

    Casey Stengel had a saying for players like Adam Dunn: “I don’t like those players who drive in two runs with their bat and let in three with their glove. That puts me down one.”

    Fun facts:

    Adam Dunn’s OPS/wOBA in 2009: .907/.391
    Randy Winn’s OPS/wOBA in 2009: .726/.321

    Adam Dunn’s WAR in 2009: 1.2
    Randy Winn’s WAR in 2009: 1.7

    In other words, Adam Dunn’s defense in 2009 was so terrible it turned him into a worse player than Randy Winn.

    Yes, I know “ZOMG WE NEED A BAT”. Well, we don’t need one attached to terrible defense. No thank you on Adam Dunn.

  25. Kazinski on December 21st, 2009 12:19 pm

    Jose Lopez and Michael Saunders for Adam Dunn – ladies and gentleman, the stupidest trade suggestion of the year.

    Did you miss the “Bradley, Carp, Pineda, Olson, and Halman for Miguel Cabrera.” suggestion?

  26. Leroy Stanton on December 21st, 2009 12:34 pm

    Did you miss the “Bradley, Carp, Pineda, Olson, and Halman for Miguel Cabrera.” suggestion?

    Thanks for pointing that out. That was mine. 🙂

    Big difference though. I thought Cabrera was more of a salary dump. After looking into a little more, I realize that is not the case. We’d have to give up more. But, are you saying you wouldn’t do that trade?

  27. Kazinski on December 21st, 2009 12:38 pm

    Dave,
    you seem to be holding Dunn’s outfield defense against him when we would only be having him play first. His UZR/150 at 1B was only -25, which is much better than his -39 UZR/150 in the outfield.

    That’s 14 runs saved having him playing a full season at 1b rather than the OF!

  28. micahjr on December 21st, 2009 12:53 pm

    I’m with the “wait it out crew,” though Kila Kaaihue, is an interesting bat to me. I’m not sure he would be worth trading for, given that he is only a slight upgrade over Mike Carp, and doesn’t have flaming red hair, to boot. I like the idea of trading for an impact bat midseason, if we are still in it in the AL West. It will cost us less than getting that same bat right now. Sign Branyan in January, and I think we are fine, until he goes down with an injury, at least.

    Micah Hoffpaiur is a terrible idea, even though he shares my name. Dude will be 30 on opening day, and has shown nothing at the big league level.

  29. Renner on December 21st, 2009 1:03 pm

    Has anybody thought about Micah Hoffpauir from the Cubs? He’s stuck behind Derek lee at 1B and seems like a good young player with some upside. Just a thought. Maybe a couple of mid level prospects for him.

    This is an interesting suggestion. I hadn’t thought about that but now that you mention it, he seems to be exactly what we’re looking for. I would rather have had Jake Fox but Hoffpauir could be a solid player and it probably wouldn’t take much to get him.

  30. Leroy Stanton on December 21st, 2009 2:19 pm

    I still think Cabrera will be moved. Detroit’s not desperate, but now is the best time to move him if they do intend to move him. Here’s why:

    Prince Fielder and Adrian Gonzalez will both be traded before the 2011 season starts. The reason is that they are FAs after 2011. The Yankees won’t be involved because they have Texeira. I don’t think the Angels will be because they have Morales and need the money for a #1 starter. The Phillies have Ryan Howard. That leaves the Red Sox, Mets, Cubs, and Dodgers as the other big-market, high-payroll teams.

    The Red Sox are hamstrung with Lowell and Ortiz, and just committed $16.5MM a year to Lackey, but you can never count them out. Also, the Ortiz and Lowell contracts will be history after this year, so while they could acquire Gonzalez at anytime, Cabrera would be difficult this year unless Detroit took Lowell.

    The Mets could go for one of these guys too. They do have the need, but I think they’ll sign Bay and that would preclude a $20MM first baseman. The Cubs could go for one of them after 2010 when Lee’s gone, but are unlikely to, as long as they have Soriano’s contract. The Dodgers have Loney and a whole lot of uncertainty right now, so they’re probably out too.

    The Red Sox and the Mariners are the two teams that have been most interested in acquiring Gonzalez. They both have a strong need at 1B, but there is a substantial premium attached to both Gonzalez and Fielder at the moment. In the end, I think Boston has the best package to offer San Diego and will eventually acqire him. They have Lowell and/or Kotchman in the interim.

    So, Dombrowski could decide to move Cabrera now. After Cabrera’s drinking incident, fans probably wouldn’t be too upset about it either. And he’d be better off doing it while the Red Sox are still players and before Fielder and Gonzalez are truly available.

    The Tigers have already decided to retool this year by getting rid of Jackson and Granderson. The Tigers also have Ryan Streiby, a highly rated prospect, ready to step in at 1B. While they have tried him in left, he’s a pretty big kid and a natural first baseman. And they are already going with two rookies anyway, Austin Jackson in center and Scott Sizemore at second. Rick Porcello, their #2 starter, is only 21. Alex Avila also figures to get significant playing time at catcher. So the youth movement has begun.

    Of course, Granderson, Edwin Jackson, and Cabrera are not exactly over-the-hill players. In fact, they’re all still young. So, this leads me to believe that the Tigers aren’t really trying to get younger as much as they are changing their approach.

    Detroit also has many dead-weight contracts coming off the books after 2010. With the exception of Cabrera, they have very little committed beyond 2011. They also want to extend Verlander, just like the M’s want to extend Felix. I don’t think 2010 is a throw-away year for them, but I don’t think they expect to seriously contend either. I think what we’re seeing in Detroit, just like the new General Motors, is a new approach Tigers. A team whose future starts to take shape in 2011. The same year that Prince Fielder will be moved.

    I think Fielder fits in Detroit for the obvious reason, he’s Cecil Fielder’s son, but other reasons as well. By 2011, the Tigers will have a ton of money and could trade for Fielder and extend him. The could use, in part, prospects obtained by dealing Cabrera. In addition, Fielder is more valuable as a DH than a fist baseman, plus he brings a needed LH bat to the lineup.

    The Mariners fit into the picture because JackZ tends to strike when the seller is motivated, not when they’re expecting a premium. We already know that he has talked with Dombrowski extensively during the Jackson/Granderson dealings. He probably has a clear idea of what Dombrowski is trying to accomplish.

    Cabrera has a long-term, fair market value contract, with a bit of character risk. But he is a young, proven bat that would fit very well for the Mariners. He’s the type of RH hitter that could thrive in Safeco – he hits the ball a long way. Plus, he is Venezuelan – just like Felix. That may not be a huge deal, but it certainly wouldn’t hurt either. It also tells Felix we have a long-term commitment to winning. In addition, Felix’s extension could be structured in a way that eases Cabrera’s salary burden. 2010-2012 are the years where Cabrera’s salary taxes the budget. After that, Ichiro’s contract is off the books. I’m sure Felix would be willing to give the M’s the needed flexibility between 2010-2012.

    Well, in a lot of detail, that is why I think the M’s could possibly land Cabrera. There are really no obvious good options at 1B right now. Every one of them seems to leave the M’s a bit short of being a true contender in 2010. So, if JackZ does make a big move at 1B, I think it’s more likely to be Cabrera than Gonzalez or Fielder. But, if the Red Sox move on Cabrera, I think we have an excellent chance of landing Gonzalez later on. And that means starting the season with Lyle Overbay or equivalent.

  31. jouish on December 21st, 2009 3:25 pm

    re: Cabrera.

    There are a bunch of things I’m not sure about with this line of thinking. The biggest is this.

    Cabrera isn’t cheap. Assuming we extend Felix that gives us:
    Cabrera | 19M | 5WAR
    Ichiro | 18M | 5WAR
    Felix | 15M+ | 6WAR

    That’s 52M tied up in 3 players.
    Assuming you have a payroll of 100M, that gives you 48M to come up with around 30 more wins (90 wins to be in first), or 1.6M/win. That’s a pretty tough challenge year in, year out and it gets worse if one of those 3 guys gets hurt.

    We’ve been pretty spoiled with Guti and Lee signings giving us that type of leverage, but I’m not exactly sure that’s a long-term sustainable ability without a deeper farm system than we currently have.

  32. Bonegar Grifftinez on December 21st, 2009 3:52 pm

    This is an interesting suggestion. I hadn’t thought about that but now that you mention it, he seems to be exactly what we’re looking for. I would rather have had Jake Fox but Hoffpauir could be a solid player and it probably wouldn’t take much to get him.

    Not sure if Micah is the option. He is a good player but he is 29 and has never been a regular at the MLB level and when he has had an extended run in the lineup he has been decent but not great. Plus Derrek Lee is a free agent at the end of this season and the Cubs might decide to try to rebuild and use Hoffpauir as a stop gap in the interim. Lee is making roughly 13M per and after the production he had last season he might be looking for one last 3-4 year deal at big money before he retires and I am not sure the Cubs would be interested in him. If they plan to let him test free agency or even let him walk then he would be in play at the deadline if a contender needs a 1B upgrade and Lee is willing to waive his no trade. For all of those reasons I don’t see Micah as an option.

    So to make a short point long I am not sure Hoffpauir would be available.

  33. Leroy Stanton on December 21st, 2009 4:20 pm

    That’s 52M tied up in 3 players.
    Assuming you have a payroll of 100M, that gives you 48M to come up with around 30 more wins (90 wins to be in first), or 1.6M/win. That’s a pretty tough challenge year in, year out and it gets worse if one of those 3 guys gets hurt.

    We’ve been pretty spoiled with Guti and Lee signings giving us that type of leverage, but I’m not exactly sure that’s a long-term sustainable ability without a deeper farm system than we currently have.

    That’s a fair point. But the 3 extra WAR (assuming Overbay at 2 WAR) goes a long way for this year’s team. And the 2013-2015 teams won’t have Ichiro’s salary or 5 WAR. It does present a problem for 2011-2012 though.

    The main point I wanted to make was that Cabrera is at least feasible, whereas Gonzalez and Fielder are probably too expensive in terms of talent right now.

    I don’t know if the deal makes sense overall, but it is certainly better than Bay or Holliday long-term.

  34. joser on December 21st, 2009 4:32 pm

    We’ve been pretty spoiled with Guti and Lee signings giving us that type of leverage, but I’m not exactly sure that’s a long-term sustainable ability without a deeper farm system than we currently have.

    Not to mention you don’t get Cabrera just for the price of his contract — the trade to obtain him further strips the farm.

  35. Leroy Stanton on December 21st, 2009 4:51 pm

    Not to mention you don’t get Cabrera just for the price of his contract — the trade to obtain him further strips the farm.

    But you might be able to get him because of the price of his contract. And we don’t know what the budget is.

  36. Kazinski on December 21st, 2009 5:32 pm

    But the 3 extra WAR (assuming Overbay at 2 WAR) goes a long way for this year’s team.

    But your trade scenario has us giving up Bradley, who can be penciled in for about 3 WAR. And there is no way we can afford both Bradley and Cabrera. In fact there is no way we can afford Cabrera even without Bradley.

  37. Leroy Stanton on December 21st, 2009 5:43 pm

    But your trade scenario has us giving up Bradley, who can be penciled in for about 3 WAR.

    There’s a lot of ways to get 3 WAR and Bradley is possibly the worst (unless you get him for Silva). If the Tigers would take Bradley, then that would make Cabrera cost ~$9MM in 2010 and 2011. And then you could explore other LF options or use Saunders.

    And there is no way we can afford both Bradley and Cabrera. In fact there is no way we can afford Cabrera even without Bradley.

    Since I don’t know what the budget is I guess you might be right.

  38. moethedog on December 21st, 2009 6:11 pm

    Loney has seen progressively declining BA’s, Slg%, OBP, BABIP, and ISO in his three (or 2.5) years as a regular.

    During this last year…which was his worst production-wise…pitchers threw more fastballs and sliders and fewer curves and change-ups….

    Looks like pitchers have caught up with his strengths ….

    He’s a .290/.350/.440 type of guy. Carp will give you that. Forfree.

    Keith

  39. ClaytonMiles on December 21st, 2009 7:26 pm

    Cabrera is great, but his contract seems too long and too big for Jack Z.
    I think there is nothing wrong with letting the market come to the Mariners. Perhaps waiting will give us the best out of a 1B-SP-RP signing and then later we can swing the best trade possible, because you know we’ll be front and center for it.

  40. Kazinski on December 21st, 2009 8:17 pm

    Bradley 2007-2009 OPS – .902 1016AB.
    Cabrera 2007-2009 OPS – .931 1815AB.

    Bradley 2010-2011 cost – Carlos Silva + 6M.
    Cabrera 2010-2011 cost – 40m.

    Bradley 2012 – 2014 commitment – 0M.
    Cabrera 2012 – 2014 commitment – 80M.

  41. Leroy Stanton on December 21st, 2009 8:34 pm

    Carlos Silva + $6MM = $31MM

  42. Leroy Stanton on December 21st, 2009 8:43 pm

    Kazinski,

    Maybe I misunderstood your earlier post. Did you think I was giving up too much for Cabrera? I thought it wasn’t enough.

    You get that Bradley’s a headcase and can’t stay healthy, right?

  43. Kazinski on December 21st, 2009 9:45 pm

    You get that Bradley’s a head case and can’t stay healthy, right?

    I get that he is a risk, but a risk worth taking given his production and cost.

    I also get that Cabrera is drunk and unreliable. You get that committing 120m to someone that clocked in a blood alcohol level of .26 the morning of a critical game in a pennant race, which his team ultimately coughed up, is just crazy, right?

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