Left Field And DH
Let’s face it, the weakest part of the Mariners roster right now is the offense. And, because people are generally used to team building through improving weaknesses (even though that’s not always the best idea), a lot of fans want the Mariners to add more offense to the roster. Traditionally, left field and designated hitter are two spots where you expect to get a decent amount of offensive production, so it’s pretty common to see people suggest that the M’s should pursue another hitter that plays one of those two spots, in addition to the first baseman that is clearly needed.
I’d like to suggest that the team is set at both LF/DH with what they have. And they can actually expect some pretty decent production from those two spots, given a four man combo platoon/rotation of Milton Bradley, Bill Hall, Ken Griffey Jr, and Ryan Langerhans (or Michael Saunders, but I’d rather he play every day in Tacoma than play a part-time role in Seattle).
Each position will be given something like 700 plate appearances in 2010, split at approximately 500/200 against RHP/LHP. With the four guys currently penciled into those spots, the breakdown should look something like this.
LF, vs RHP: Langerhans (250), Bradley (150), Hall (100)
LF, vs LHP: Hall (125), Langerhans (50), Bradley (25)
DH, vs RHP: Griffey (250), Bradley (150), Various (100)
DH, vs LHP: Bradley (100), Griffey (50), Various (50)
The regular line-up against lefties is easy – Hall in left and Bradley at DH. Both hit LHPs well historically, while Hall is the better defender, so Bradley gets to rest his body when a southpaw is on the mound. Against righties, it gets a little more complicated – Bradley will play when he can, with Langerhans/Griffey essentially splitting the other spot depending on Milton’s health and whether Wak wants to maximize his defense that day.
Using this kind of job sharing plan, the total PA breakdown would be as follows: Bradley (425), Griffey (300), Langerhans (300), Hall (225), Various (150).
In terms of decision making, three of those spots are fixed. Bradley and Griffey are on the team – that’s already been decided. Because of their respective health problems, you have to build in expected injury time for both, which is why the unnamed Various players are accounted for. That may be Mike Carp filling for a few weeks when Junior is on the DL or Wak using the DH to give his regulars a half-day off, but there will be playing time at DH doled out to guys who don’t begin the year on the roster.
That means the only two potential players you could replace are Langerhans or Hall, and in reality, you probably can’t toss Hall off the roster – he’s due $1.3 million from the club for 2010, and given his ability to backup a lot of positions while also serving as a RH platoon LF, you’re probably not going to be able to find a guy who offers the needed flexibility that this roster requires. So, that just leaves Langerhans.
He’s penciled for 300 plate appearances, and he’s something like a +1 to +1.5 win player over a full season, so you’re expecting about +0.5 to +0.75 wins in production from him in that role. Let’s say you decide you want to replace him with a better hitting outfielder, a guy who is a +2.5 win player over a full season. We’ll call him “Johnny Damon”, just for fun.
Obviously, you’re not going to limit that guy to Langerhans share of the playing time. So, you reduce the number of days that Bradley and Hall get in left, with Bradley shifting more to a DH role and eating away at some of Junior’s playing time. Perhaps the new allocation of resources looks like this:
“Damon” (600), Bradley (400), Griffey (200), Hall (100), Various (100)
You get Damon’s +2.5 wins, but you lose Langerhans +0.5 win and some portion of Hall’s expected production against LHPs. You also lose the ability to play the match-ups depending on who is pitching on each day, and you make Hall the backup center fielder, making the team worse on days when Gutierrez can’t play. All told, you’re punting about +1 win of value, so the real upgrade is about +1.5 wins.
How much do you think the team should pay for that +1.5 win upgrade? Wins are going for about $3.5 million apiece on the market this year, so you can’t expect Damon to sign for less than $7 million per year, and rumors have him asking for more like $10 to $12 million per season. Even if you think the M’s could get Damon (or someone like him – remember, he’s just a placeholder for Better LF Hitter Guy) for $7 or $8 million, the team would be paying about $5 million per actual win added.
There are simply much better ways to spend the remaining money in the budget. The team currently has ~0 expected value from first base, as Carp is probably replacement level-ish. As we talked about a few weeks ago, a guy like Lyle Overbay could add +2 wins in value at first base, and he’d cost at most $7 million, and probably less (assuming Toronto would kick in some cash to get rid of him). The team also has a bunch of near replacement level options for the #5 starter spot, so adding a starting pitcher from the Smoltz/Martinez/Sheets/Wang/Bedard group could easily add +1 to +2 wins in value, while certainly coming at a lower cost than adding an offensive minded left fielder.
The Mariners do not have enough money for an LF, 1B, and an SP. If they get good value, they might be able to afford two quality players at those spots. It seems clear to me that 1B and SP are the cheaper, easier routes to upgrade. The current group can handle LF/DH, and provide good value to the team. The M’s don’t need to add another bat there. There are better ways to upgrade the roster, even if it doesn’t satisfy some people’s constant need for “a power bat”.
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Has there been any recent news on Branyan? He was looking for 2 (or more) years, but it doesn’t look like he’ll be getting that in this market.
Is Adam LaRoche an option? Is he likely to get his 3/$30M, and if not, what is a reasonable offer?
We just did a really long post about first base last week. This is not that post.
Dave,
Of that group of pitchers, which do you think is most likely? I like the idea of Sheets but haven’t heard what kind of money he is asking for.
Incidentally, you’re no longer allowed to fill in “Jason Bay” instead of “Johnny Damon.”
Thankyou Dave. The Mariners fan base was in dire need of a dose of reality regarding the LF/DH spot. Bradley will see plenty of time in the outfield and Griffey will see plenty of time at DH. Saunders is not going to be with the big club in the Langerhans role, it would be detrimental to his development. And as fans we should be content with this situation, a Langer-Hall platoon is very likely to outproduce Saunders. Especially this year.
And if Griffey falls flat like first half 2007 Ibanez I have little doubt Saunders can win the everday LF job after the all star break by tearing the cover off the ball a la Jones in 2007.
Yes, yes and yes.
The reason the Mariners have been focusing on bringing in guys with flexibilith is that they can pick and choose between the available options to bring in the players that can give them the most value for their money. They’ve put themselves in a good position to make the highest value choice and make the pieces fit.
I’m not sure why there should be much importance put on what a player is asking for.
Is French truly at his ceiling, and still replacement level? When we acquired him for the Bus, people seemed to be happy that he _was_ the Bus, but younger… which is to say, potentially somewhat better than replacement.
I just don’t see Bedard being the option, mostly because of how late he’ll be healthy. I could see him being signed as a third SP this offseason, though, with a heavily incentive-laden contract. And starting on the 60-day DL.
I’m still thinking the two most likely names are Sheets and Washburn, but I think Sheets might be asking too much money. Bring back The Bus! $5M enough?
I can’t imagine Bedard is too serious an option because he won’t be healthy to start the season.
If they’re going to take a flier on an injury guy, they might as well get him for the whole season. I like Sheets, personally.
Also why isn’t Jim Thome being discussed as an option at 1B?
Dave, thank you for making me a better (well, better-informed, anyway) baseball fan.
Dave, I like your idea with Saunders starting in AAA. He’s a good backup plan if Bradley or Griffey shockingly get hurt, and he has the potential to outperform Hall and Langerhans. What shot do you give Saunders of playing well enough to earn a non-injury promotion later in the year?
I agree and, with all due respect, this is borderline obvious. Once Bradley entered the picture, there was no longer any room for a DH or a LF, because he’s a very good hitter that’s going to play those two positions. The club needs a 1B and could really use a SP. Branyan/Sheets is the obvious combo available in free agency, but Z doesn’t usually do what’s obvious.
Dave,
Great analysis. In your opinion, does an Overbay at first and one of the SPs you listed in our rotation make us a playoff contender?
It doesn’t really feel like one to me but I was wondering what the statistics would say.
Jim thome is just another version of delgado and branyan basically, right? Id rather just see branyan back since he’s proven he can hit at Safeco.
I’ve also seen his asking price at 12M.
Over all those options I’d like to see us get Garland on a 2-3 year deal. He’s young and an inning eater. Always been near 200innings or over and at a descent ERA…Then again, we thought that about Carlos Silva. haha
Here, here! You’d like to think you’d come up with Dave’s stuff if you could think about baseball full-time, instead of just when you’re having sex.
@ nathaniel dawson : “I’m not sure why there should be much importance put on what a player is asking for.”
Because in the absence of any better information, it is reasonable to assume the Mariners are operating on a budget similar to last year’s, and therefore they have a limited amount of money left to spend.
Dude hasn’t played 1B regularly since 2005, that’s why. He’s not a 1B anymore.
Ok, maybe I should have asked what it will ultimately take to sign him. There isn’t really all that much money left to play with and if he’s too expensive as opposed to Wang, or whoever, makes a difference as to what can be spent at 1b.
Other advantages of this would be that the Mariners could claim they chose Overbay over Bay.
*groan*
Yeah that was a bad joke.
Good points on LF and DH … but why is everyone still talking about Saunders? A 23-year-old outfielder with a weak arm who strikes out 1/3 of the time and slugs .279. Is any of that going to get appreciably better?
Yes.
I just don’t get this love for Langerhans, that we would think him taking 300 ABs over a season was a good thing. If the formula drives to the solution that you have Langerhans getting 300 ABs, versus the 125 ABs or so that a 4th outfielder should get. There has been so much whining about Jose Lopez because he only has a OBP of .306 – well Langerhans had .306 last year.
The guy is a poor man’s Johnny Moses/Jeremy Reed. Lousy/not-so- good teams have OF guys like Ryan Langerhans getting 300 ABs. The M’s need another option.
I meant to say –
If the formula drives to the solution that you have Langerhans getting 300 ABs, versus the 125 ABs or so that a 4th outfielder should get, you need to change the formula.
sorry
They Yankees are looking for a cheap option in left….I wonder if we could pull off a reasonable trade for Swisher.
The best this team can do is give ~90% of a full-time starting position to two players (Hall and Griffey) who project to combine to be about a .5ish WAR player (~0 for Griffey, ~.5 for Hall)? Really?
I’m not buying this scenario. I think, rather, that what happens is Zduriencik finds someone who can slide to 1B OR LF without being a complete trainwreck as part of his search to “fill 1B”, while bolstering the rotation, he waits and sees which of Carp or Saunders looks ready during spring training/early season, and when the Hall/Griffey quasi-platoon comes off as the endless series of outs that it likely will be, one of them gets the callup and Hall hits the waiver wire (Griffey arguably should be the one getting DFA, but we all know that’s not going to happen). Yeah, it sucks to blow 1.3 million, but hey, sunk costs.
Jose Lopez has been a replacement-level fielder over the past three years. Langerhans has given his teams half a win defensively over the same period.
That’s why Langerhans should get 300 ABs.
There has been so much whining about Jose Lopez because he only has a OBP of .306 – well Langerhans had .306 last year.
Ryan Langerhans plays good defense. Jose Lopez plays average defense.
As a 4th OFer, Langerhans is fine- he’s basically Endy Chavez.
…And Langerhans’ value was added in 210, 111, and 101 ABs over those three years, Lopez’ value in 524, 644, and 613.
Langerhans is both better than Lopez, and also practically free.
I think the point is, that while the LF/DH situation isn’t that great, it’s more cost effective to leave it alone and spend what’s left on upgrading SP and 1B. The net benefits for the money and current roster play that out. Yes, none of us really want to see Jr. or Langerhans get that many AB’s, but that’s where we are. And, it’s a loooong way from where we were going into 2008.
…And Langerhans’ value was added in 210, 111, and 101 ABs over those three years, Lopez’ value in 524, 644, and 613.
Langerhans is both better than Lopez, and also practically free.
Um, no, let’s not go crazy here. Langerhans was terrible in 2007, and actually far worse than Lopez, who was having a very down year himself that year (-1.3 WAR as opposed to 0.1 for Lopez).
You ever hear any mention about sample sizes? Saunders has grand total of 129PA in the majors. In Tacoma in a half season he had a .922ops and a .234iso. Is he that good? No, he is probably somewhere right in the middle. Bill James projects a .742ops next year for him.
And where do you get the weak arm info? In high school his fastball was clocked at 92mph on the gun. That is probably right up there with Ichiro and Gutierrez.
Word. 121 ABs is the perfect amount of time to evaluate a player. Kudos.
So, if Saunders does go back to Tacoma, is it because he’s still got things to learn down there, or because there just isn’t any room for him. I’d like to hope it is the former, because the latter makes the Griffey deal even more stupid.
I disagree that the M’s don’t need a DH. Here’s some good reasons to get one:
1.) Every year there’s a lot of good hitters who nobody wants because they can’t field. This year is no exception with Guerrero, Thome, and Dye and probably others, along with good hitters who can field who will become available because no team has an opening at that position. And there are very few, if any, DH jobs available anymore, so more than one of these players will be available for very cheap eventually before the season starts.
It was a huge mistake for the M’s to settle for what they did last year at DH, and it’d be a huge mistake again to not give the 1 year $2 million contract plus regular DH playing time which is all it would take to get one of those guys this year, and get another big bat in the lineup.
2.) The team as it stands now is hugely dependent on Milton Bradley staying in the lineup all year. That is an incredibly foolish gamble for any serious contender to make. If the M’s get a DH and 1B, then the lineup will be fine even if Bradley does something stupid.
3.) Even if Bradley keeps out of trouble, another .800 OPS bat in addition to him, the 1B, and Ichiro would only help.
TLDR version: a good DH would be extremely cheap after the jobs run out, good insurance in case Bradley screws up, and a good addition even if Bradley doesn’t screw up. There’s no good reason not to get one, and plenty of good reasons to do it.
agreed, i think it was great to lay it out the way you did. Often times people would say bring in “Damon” but forget to subtract the playing time of others in that position and account for where they will play and their value at that position (a huge detail often over looked)
Overbays value would be right at market value per win (before the jays kicking in some money, assuming they did) but why hasnt the deal happened yet (either in the Lee Deal or the Morrow deal?)
I think the point is, that while the LF/DH situation isn’t that great, it’s more cost effective to leave it alone and spend what’s left on upgrading SP and 1B.
Giving Griffey/Hall 525 PAs instead of, say, Saunders isn’t “leaving it alone”, though, given that all of them are roster choices- it’s a conscious decision to use replacement-level veterans as the equivalent of a full-time player.
Then again, given the Sweeney/Griffey love from last year, this seems like something the organization is comfortable with.
What do you mean by ‘replacement level fielder’? This doesnt mean anything. Do you mean that his UZR is about 0? This means he is a league average defender. You have to apply ‘replacement level’ to the complete package of offense + defense + position. Someone having a UZR of 0 at a position doesnt make them a ‘replacement level defender’.
Lopez is a roughly league average fielder (close to 0 UZR). He is about a 2 to 2.5 WAR player when you count his offense, defense, and positional value. Thats barely above league average. Which is very good for a player with Lopez’ contract.
Langerhans is lower WAR than that.
We love Langerhans because he is above replacement level and free. That means he is a good value. When he is taking those ABs we are also getting his great defense. He is probably 1 to 1.5 WAR if he played full time. You would normally pay $4-5 million for that in free agency, but instead the Mariners can pay him $500k because his defensive skill is greatly undervalued by most other teams.
He might be practically free, so I guess it can be argued that he is worth every penny. That is why he is a perfect fit for a lousy team with low payroll – especially at 300 ABs.
Egads!!(such a statement needs to be brought out of retirement) This bogus statistical analysis which purports to assign Win/Loss value to a player reminds one of the old worn out cliche about statistics – Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics.
To propose that a career .232 hitter who hit .218 for you last year is a better player for your team than a player who drove in 96 RBIs and hit 25 HRs last year is to truly give into statistical delusion. Please – Think about what you are saying. Can you possibly really believe this nonsense?
I would prefer to see Saunders as the primary LF, with Hall getting time as the back-up/4th OF.
Bradley and Junior should split time at DH, with MB getting the majority of the ABs.
Once one of the old guys gets injured, that will open more playing time for Hall/Langerhans, etc.
I don’t really understand the desire to send Saunders back down to Tacoma to hit OPS 900 + again. It just seems that LF should be Saunders’ job to lose.
But yes, overall I certainly agree with the idea that we don’t need to pay for any additional players to play LF/DH for the M’s. There are currently enough options under contract to work with in 2010.
I love the idea of giving LF to Saunders, platoon against tough lefties to help keep his spirits up and prevent development of bad habits but otherwise trot him out there day after day.
His value nor skills are not likely to improve much in Tacoma. He looks like a ball player – let’s let him play.
This seems like a better investment than the alternatives. If Saunders hits .218 next year at least he will be another year more experienced and it will be an investment in him getting better. If Langerhans hits .218 he will look like himself.
Lopez’ fielding value scores over the last three years have been +2.1, -5.2, and +2.9, which adds up to -0.2, and I interpreted that as “replacement level”. (UZR/150 of 1.4, -4.8, 1.5)
I take your point that “replacement level” should be applied to the player’s value overall, though. Makes sense.
Langerhans’ WAR when adjusted for playing time (3.4 WAR over 1263 PAs) still looks like a slightly better player than Lopez (7.1 WAR over 2977 PAs)
Funny, I never hear people trot out that quote unless they have failed to understand the statistics in question.
Yes, I can. It’s sort of the whole point of the site.
Well, part of that proposal is that you add in defensive value as well as the offensive value. Ignoring defensive value is, um, REALLY DELUSIONAL.
And, really, RBIs? You can do better than that.
Actually my friend, I do not know you nor do I know your exposure to advanced statistics, but unless you are exceptional (meaning you have greater academic exposure to statistics and mathematics than 99.5% of the people in the USA)it is likely that you are much less qualified than myself concerning evaluating statistical truths. What is your academic background in statistics? Humble me.
There is no accounting for what some people will believe.
Slavery is freedom. Less is more. Ryan Langerhans is better that Jose Lopez.
So, you want Langerhans to play second base?
It’s difficult to argue with Dave’s reality-based analysis–”here’s where we are, so this is the best we can do”. And that’s a cryin’ shame.
What this breakdown confirms is that we’re effectively playing with a 24-man roster. Because of KGJ. He is not only one-dimensional…he sucks at that one dimension.
If we’re concerned about offense (as we all should be), there’s one thing we need to do–maximize ABs for Ichiro, Figgins and Bradley. They are unquestionably our three best hitters. The idea of 600 combined ABs for Griffey and Langerhans is pathetic.
And as for #4? I say it’s a crime not to find out if that’s Saunders.
But I also agree that’s not going to happen as long as ABs are needed to mollify Griffey. We are killing ourselves.
Langerhans’ WAR when adjusted for playing time (3.4 WAR over 1263 PAs) still looks like a slightly better player than Lopez (7.1 WAR over 2977 PAs)
Part of the reason he doesn’t have as much playing time is his limitations as a player (2007 showed those quite nicely)- he’s never gone past 400 PAs in a MLB season. More than haf of that WAR is from one season (2005). He really should be evaluated as a nice player with limitations (solid defense, some walks, a bit of power, can’t hit much, though) who makes a decent 4th OF.
Also…
it is likely that you are much less qualified than myself concerning evaluating statistical truths.
By all means, enlighten us on why RBIs beat Wins Above Replacement as a tool to evaluate players.
I don’t know (or care) what your academic background is that supposedly makes you more educated about “statistical truths” than “99.5% of the people in the USA”.
If you think batting average and RBIs are better tools to evaluate baseball players than something like WAR, then you’d be well-served to comment less and listen more, especially considering your tone.
Lopez is a much better fit than Langerhans.Our defense is solid enough to withstand Lopez’s below level defense. We need his offense, bad. He’s also only 26 and could develop a lot more. Offensively he has done well and could do even better. Defense is his only real problem I believe. Offensively he has show he can hit for power, a descent average, and in the clutch (3 game winners last year). I don’t see the Mariners finding a 2nd baseman who can do even close to what Lopez can do offensively in Safeco. Develop Tui, make lopez run a little more and lose a few pounds off his fat ass, and give the 26 year old some credit.
Don’t feed the trolls, people. If someone wants to argue that BA and RBI are the way to evaluate players, ignore them unless they show a willingness to learn. This guy clearly does not show that.
Unless we are trading Bradley or griffey is leaving our LF and Dh are basically set. In left Bradley/Saunders and DH griffey/bradley/whoever else.
If were not going to make a trade then spend the money on Branyan. And if we got the ability get a low risk high reward pitcher (sheets) or an innings eater (Garland).
Agreed. And what kills me the most about giving Junior his ABs while reducing Saunders’ (if, that is in fact what happens) is that it appears to be a step in the opposite direction of the way the team has appeared to value defense, athleticism, young, cheap(er) talent.
Or is it just a matter of letting Saunders hit in Tacoma for another year while Junior and Hall are still under contract?
Dave’s scenario illustrated the possible outcomes based on Jr/MB/Langerhans/Hall playing the DH/LF platoon.
What is the expected outcome of allowing Saunders to be The LF when including all other factors? (Saunders (most likely) is the better of all of the potential LFers, not having MB play LF gives him a batter chance to play longer, stay healthy)
Hyperbole, ego and tone aside, I’d still like to see the statistical refutation to his statement:
Actually, support for that statement…
The point at which a particular statistical analysis leads you to patently silly results is the point at which you should make the statement to oneself – “Gee. I guess this particular measurement I am using fails in this particular analysis.” And then discard it and realize there are better, more useful measurements out there.
I am sure the WAR measurement is interesting and somewhat valuable when comparing like players at like positions – comparing all full time 2nd basemen, for example. But it becomes less useful as it attempts to spread out to more complex comparisons – a 4th outfielder vs. a full time 2nd baseman. It is a nice attempt to make something simple out of something complex, and is interesting as a point of discussion, but fails utterly in the type of evaluation you are attempting to do when comparing Langerhans to Lopez.
It is similar to saying that because a dog had millions of hairs and only one four legs, that a dog’s hair is more important to the dog. Hey, I can develop a statistical model to assign importance of body parts to a dog – but if the results are silly, then you just have an interesting silly model.
And I am sorry if you don’t feel like sharing your statistical bona fides with me – I only called you out about it because you implied previously that I was some statistical nimrod, while you had all knowledge great and good.
Ummm… you know WAR has a positional adjustment built into it, right? You HAVE looked it up, right?
Anybody who cites RBIs as a measure of offensive worth pretty much demonstrates they’re a statistical nimrod.
And anyone who dismisses a measure without examining it is a nimrod, period.
Ergo, you have demonstrated twice that you are a statistical nimrod. You’re willfully refusing to use your native intelligence.
This is not permanent or indeliable, but it requires a desire to learn (if only to critique); prove our initial observations wrong and at least TRY to learn something about what you’re dismissing.
Here’s the thing – you have no idea what you’re talking about. If you want to learn, we will help you learn. If you just want to spew your ignorance, then go away.
Of course I know that it has a so called positional adjustment built into it which attempts, once again, to make a complex analysis simple. This doesn’t make it accurate nor “valuable”. There are buttloads of assumptions built into all of these supposed super-stats,including WAR. They are interesting to discuss and give some insight, but if your answers are silly, you have to understand the limits of that particular statistic.
Here is an example of silly stat analysis- who can claim to be the greater power hitter – Ryan Langerhans with 27 home runs, or Greg Briley with 29 home runs? Answer – This stat analysis does not mean anything and to argue otherwise is silly and to not understand the limits of stats.
Im definitely going to agree that you wanna have value for every player on your team. And i love what has been happening with our team in the GMZ era. But at the same time you cant just fill your team with guys like Langerhans just for the sake of “value”. If you do that with too many players you are just gonna be an average team. Its not like we as fans get to cash in on this value at any point. That value that we do save with some players has to be spent on players with a high risk/reward at some point. I believe there was a post earlier about this.
I guess as an analogy, in my fantasy football league we do an auction type draft. I drafted a very solid team with cheap guys that played above what i paid for them. I was happy with myself, but at the same time, i finished just above .500 and lost to the guys that spent all their money on the studs that played at their predicted value or even slightly below it. Sure if those studs got hurt, or fell off the face of the Earth, then those teams were screwed. But they got the trophy and I didnt, even though my team had more “value”.
Im by no means saying i dont like the way the Mariners are put together, i think we are going to be very good, especially with the moves that we have been making. I guess the only thing i like about Bavasi was that he did take those chances, he just had poor judgement on which players to take that risk on. I just think going out of or way to accommodate players like Langerhans is slightly foolish. If he is on our team, then great. And if not then thats great too. I love seeing all the new stats and opinions, but sometimes it comes down to players being good and players being scrubs, and Langerhans is a scrub. Maybe hes one of the better scrubs in the league, but he still is one nonetheless.
The Mariners just traded for Milton Bradley, and you’re complaining that they aren’t taking risks?
Also, your analysis of Langerhans is just wrong.
First off, the best thing about WAR is that it allows you to compare players who play different positions.
Second, I think you’re maybe getting thrown off by the person who said Langerhans is better than Lopez. That’s really not true at all. As Dave said, a full season of Langerhans is worth about 1.25 wins. As we know from the data we’ve acquired over the last several years, J Lo is worth about 2.25. I think that most baseball fans (even those who do not have a better understanding of statistical truths than 99.5% of the population) are aware that 2.25 is a bigger number than 1.25 so Lopez is the better player (additionally I’m pretty sure those numbers don’t factor in how much Safeco hurts Jose. If he played in a park that was more neutral to righties, he’d probably be worth another half a win or so). Now Lopez is getting $2.3 mil this year while Langerhans is getting $.5 so if you want to get into value (which I assume is what the guy who said Langerhans is better than Lopez was referring to), we’re looking at a completely different discussion, but that’s not what you’ve been talking about. You’ve been talking about who’s better and on that point you’re right: Lopez is better than Langerhans.
That’s not to say you haven’t made some mistakes elsewhere in your analysis. And I don’t think anyone was questioning your ability to understand or analyze statistics. They were questioning the statistics you chose to highlight. You specifically mentioned RBIs and homeruns which are not stats that have a ton of predictive value or even relate all that strongly to current value (RBIs in particular has very little to do with a player’s skill). I’m sure if you continue reading this site, you’ll get a better idea of which statistics are worth focusing on and which ones you’re better off just disregarding.
I do not believe that HR and RBI are the greatest or best stats available but they so obviously point out how Lopez is a more valuable player, along with BA (and some of those other more “boring” old time stats) than Langerhans, there really isn’t any need to go further with analysis, into more exotic stats.
I have read MOST of Dave’s explanation of WAR series and it is interesting, but it is mostly filled with explanations of the assumptions behind the stat. Well, sometimes those assumptions point out interesting stuff, and sometimes the truth is lost in the miasma of the assumptions.
No my complaining wasnt with the Mariners, it was more with the man love for Langerhans on here. It wasnt really complaining at all. Like i said i do like what they are doing now, Im just saying that if all we worry about is squeeking out that value, we will be the Oakland Athletics of the late 90’s and early 00’s…..above average to good, but with no real chance of winning a World Series. Thats why i like the Bradley deal, and think we should take the risk on Branyan, or Delgado, or whoever else at first base. Maybe we overpay by a bit, and maybe Carp ends up ok and exceeds his contract of nothing. But i think everyone would agree that we have a better chance of winning taking that chance with the guys with more potential even if we arent getting the best value.
i think everyone would agree that we have a better chance of winning taking that chance with the guys with more potential even if we arent getting the best value.
You’re missing the point of value purchases. You don’t use Langerhans in left because he’s the best dollar per win buy you can get, but because you do not have an unlimited budget.
If you spend on a left fielder to replace him, that’s money you cannot spend on a first baseman or a starting pitcher. The entire point of the post is that the M’s can build a better roster by spending the money they have left on places other than left field.
We know that you can’t win with a roster full of Langerhans types. I wrote a really, really long post about that before the off-season started. We know, you need good players. We get it. And so do the Mariners, which is why they traded for Lee and Bradley and signed Chone Figgins.
At this point, the M’s can’t afford to “fix” all three of 1B/SP/LF. They have to pick and choose, so they should pick 1B+SP.
But it completely takes out the “risk” aspect when what you traded to obtain said player was a sunk cost albatross.
I haven’t read a word about Carlos Delgado’s “asking price.” Any idea what kind of financial commitment he’d command?
Lot’s of reasons why. You wouldn’t project him to be significantly better than using the other players we have, he could certainly use some more time in Tacoma to become a more polished player, we can keep Langerhans in the organization instead of DFA’ing him, we delay Saunders’ service clock another year.
Well, yes, he is hurt by Safeco Field, but let’s not overstate it. The difference between Lopez in Safeco and a nuetral park is probably something more like 1/10th of a win.
Put it this way, the M’s can go with what they have in left and go get a 1B and SP, or they can go with what they have at 1B AND SP and go spend on LF. They can’t do both.
If you agree with that, then you can also see that what they have in LF is better than what they have at 1B, so the obvious choice is to upgrade 1B and Sp and leave LF alone for now.
[here]
Don’t feed the trolls!!!!!!
All argument aside, I think that the most important fact that supports Dave’s conclusion that we’re going after 1B+SP is that we re-signed Langerhans to a major league contract. This sounds obvious but the underlying reasoning is that we signed him to a ML contract because the Ms wanted him to play LF, not as an insurance policy for the LF free agent they’re going to go out and sign tomorrow.
All signs point to the fact that the Mariners are building a roster that gives them plenty of options for LF but no good ones at first base. It seems like fans are having trouble reconciling what looks like the same anemic offense the Ms fielded last season with the type of winning lineup they think the Ms should have. However, Bradley and Figgins should get on base more than their counterparts did last season and a good bat at 1B will make that differential even more positive. There haven’t been any real sea changes (minus Cliff Fucking Lee, of course) but I for one think the Ms are definitely trending in the right direction.
I’d love to see Chien-Ming Wang in a Mariners uniform. He seems perfect for our style of ball.
I certainly fit in that category.
Unless the offense improves significantly they will be lucky to play something close to .500 ball.
With the moves made so far, the only real hope is that the offense improves organically due to the kids having breakout years.
The things they had going well last year – defense/bullpen mostly – are at least as likely to revert back towards the mean than they are to improve or stand pat.
The good news is that also is the case with the offense. They were so bad, you would expect them to get better just because they were so far from the norm. But there is certainly not a force march towards a respectable offense during Captain Jack’s watch, and that was the teams main weakness last year.
The only reason KGJ is on this team is to keep the fans happy while the difficult job of building a contender is ongoing. If the final team that is assembled results in Griffey getting more than 50 pinch-hitting AB, then that team is NOT a contender. I agree with the previous comment that each year there are DH-type players who fail to land contacts and can be had very cheaply – and be much more productive than the players in Dave’s analysis.
I’m finding it hard to resist feeding the troll. It’s almost as if he is intentionally baiting me by rehashing every single tired argument that USSM worked so hard to debunk over the years. Yeah, many of us were once much like him. But that seems like soooo long ago…
I really hope that Griffey doesn’t get a single at-bat against a left-handed pitcher as DH this year.
I mean, he may be my childhood hero and everything, but he’s a liability now.
Okay, look people, this should be pretty obvious, but here it is:
1. Griffey is on the team. Period. End of story. Whether he should be or not is a moot point.
2. Bradley cannot play the field every day and stay healthy. He has to DH at least some of the time in order to stay in the line-up as much as possible. He cannot be counted on as a regular, every day outfielder.
3. Given #1 and #2, you cannot put another DH on the roster. There’s no room. If you throw Langerhans off and bring in Vladimir Guerrero, you’re going into every game with 3 1/2 outfielders, and one of those is Bill Hall. That’s untenable.
You can want Jim Thome or Vladimir Guerrero or whatever DH you think would help the offense, but you can’t fit them onto this roster and make it work. You can’t do it. Get over it.
I agree that the M’s best chance to improve the roster is at 1B and SP. Who is the best SP that the M’s should try to sign?
Below is the 2009 FIP for several starters:
John Smoltz 3.87
Jason marquis 4.10
Aaron harang 4.14
Pedro martinez 4.28
Edwin Jackson 4.28
Rich Harden 4.35
John Garland 4.48
Jarrod Washburn 4.58
Randy Johnson 4.95
To me, it seems like the Best choices for SP are Smoltz, Pedro, or to swing a trade with Cincy for Harang.
Having the Experience of either Smoltz or Pedro on the pitching staff could really be valuable for the younger pitchers. Imagine the excitement to M’s fans, and even to the national media, that our pitching staff would have if we had Smoltz or Pedro!
Which SP do the rest of you prefer?
Well, yes, he is hurt by Safeco Field, but let’s not overstate it. The difference between Lopez in Safeco and a nuetral park is probably something more like 1/10th of a win.
You think? I obviously don’t have the WAR formula memorized, but turn just five of his warning track fly balls into homers and his OPS shoots up by .041 points. That seems pretty significant by itself and depending on where you put him it could be a conservative estimate. Plus that totally disregards that fact that if he played somewhere where it was easier to hit homers, pitchers would probably throw him fewer strikes and he might actually walk thirty times. It seems like all that could add up to at least a quarter win, but like I said, I don’t have the formula memorized. Maybe it’s less than I’m envisioning.
Is it really that likely that the platoon in LF produces more value than a full season of Saunders? I understand that the M’s aren’t sold on him (they resigned Langerhans), but can’t Bradley just be the almost full-time DH, Griffey etc. filling in when he isn’t? Are we paying Langerhans above league minimum?
Even if Saunders isn’t ready to hit MLB pitching at the start of the season, is another season at triple A really better for his development than steady major league plate appearences? I know the team is trying to win this year, but I have trouble seeing any combination of Langerhans/Hall/Bradley outproducing Saunders by a significant amount when Bradley in LF means Griffey/various at DH.
Amen.
Short of a major trade, the ways to improve the roster are limited and obvious: add a high upside starting pitcher and good-hitting 1B. In free agency, that means Sheets, Bedard or the Unit, and [see Dave's post on 1B, none of whom are particularly exciting].
[way over the line. you don't get to equate people who disagree with you with cult members]
Also the chance that Saunders locks onto major league pitching and does something like 270/340/430 with good defense has to add to the equation favoring giving him the full time job.
Dave, I hope that your latest post wasn’t directed at me. I actually think that Griffey can be useful as long as he is facing right-handed pitchers. I just think he’s a liability against left-handers,and I therefore believe that having him in the starting lineup against a left-handed pitcher is akin to throwing away your DH spot altogether. We’re better off with Bradley DHing with Hall OR Langerhans in left (Langerhans because the value of his defense versus Bradley’s {and also minimizing the injury risk of Bradley} makes up for his bat being just as bad as Junior’s against southpaws.)
[too huge, please link to things like this]
There are some scary, scary bad pitchers on that list.
I think the only ones even worth taking a serious look at are:
Bedard, Chapman (not for this year), Garland, Randy Johnson, Lowry, Pedro, Mulder, Myers, Sheets, Wang and Washburn.
Also, It’s so weird that Mark Prior is the second-youngest player on that list. Dusty Baker should be ashamed of what he did.
I never much liked the “…damn lies” quote as a refutation of statistics.
Sometimes there’s a false sense of achieving greater accuracy when forecasting WAR, ROI, etc., as more variables are introduced and accounted for.
Yet accommodating for or accepting variance (UZR, for example is best looked at over several seasons), is a much better approach than having highly accurate but almost meaningless stats like RBI’s
Sorry, some people browse on mobile phones, etc, and that comment was just a big list of (mostly uninteresting) pitchers. It’s pretty easy to look on Cot’s or whatever if you want to know who the free agents are.
Well, it was me that posted the long list…I thought immediately afterword that I should have linked to it. Here.
My point was that there is available pitching but the talent pool is dwindling. I tend to agree that Sheets and Wang are worth a look, and Johnson and Washburn have some sentimental value, but when I look at that list there isn’t really a number 3 starter that pops out at me.
(Fixed the link)
And IE6. Oh, god, how I wish everyone would get off IE6.
Google Chrome, baby!
Bradley can’t be counted on even if he stays healthy. With his mental problems in addition to his injury history, it’s unlikely he plays the whole season no matter where he plays. So if we get a DH and make Bradley play LF everyday and he eventually gets hurt, it’s not a big deal because we didn’t expect him to make it through the entire season anyway, and he was still worth the $3 million investment, and the lineup still has a good DH so it’s no worse than if we still had Bradley and didn’t sign a DH.
And if we don’t get another DH, then what happens when Bradley either throws a tantrum or gets hurt just playing DH (one of which will probably happen)? Who plays DH then? We missed out on Vlad, Thome, et al., and now the lineup’s just like last year: the 1B and Ichiro and then a bunch of mediocre OPS hitters besides them. I’d rather have both Bradley and a good cheap DH as insurance, instead of having to rely so heavily on the flaky Bradley staying in the lineup just to keep the offense average.
As far as the roster, that’s easy. The starting 9 includes Bradley and the DH. The bench has Griffey, either Moore or Johnson for backup C, Langerhans for 4th OF, and Hall for backup IF. There’s your 13.
And on top of that, there’s still a good chance Bradley doesn’t get hurt playing LF and the lineup is a lot stronger because of that and our new DH.
As far as the roster, that’s easy. The starting 9 includes Bradley and the DH. The bench has Griffey, either Moore or Johnson for backup C, Langerhans for 4th OF, and Hall for backup IF. There’s your 13.
Games played, 2008-2009:
Milton Bradley: 250
Jack Wilson: 193
Games played at SS since 2006:
Bill Hall: 0
If anything, this really exposes the problem of carrying Griffey on this roster. You can’t AFFORD to have a guy on this roster whose job is to tickle Ichiro and pinch hit 3 times a week, when two of your regulars are fairly certain to miss more than a month at some point during the season. That 25th guy is going to get significant playing time with this roster.
Jack Hannahan: 2
I don’t know what you’re talking about… we’re fiiiine… /sarcasm
You think? I obviously don’t have the WAR formula memorized, but turn just five of his warning track fly balls into homers and his OPS shoots up by .041 points. That seems pretty significant by itself and depending on where you put him it could be a conservative estimate. Plus that totally disregards that fact that if he played somewhere where it was easier to hit homers, pitchers would probably throw him fewer strikes and he might actually walk thirty times. It seems like all that could add up to at least a quarter win, but like I said, I don’t have the formula memorized. Maybe it’s less than I’m envisioning.
WAR isn’t park-neutral? How on earth can you use it to compare values of players in different parks if it’s not park-neutral? And shouldn’t the point be to adjust it to be truly park-neutral?
Jose Lopez doesn’t magically become a better hitter in a different park that doesn’t relentlessly scre RHB like Safeco- his skillset remains the same, the environment the skillset is used in is different, and so the results are different. Judging player value needs to be separated from the environment they play in. WAR doesn’t do that?
I don’t know what you’re talking about… we’re fiiiine… /sarcasm
I’m not exactly sure Hannahan is the answer as Wilson’s backup either, but he’s closer to an answer than Hall is. (Ideally, we’d have a roster that had a proven backup to Wilson instead of a cripple at DH, and someone who looked a lot better than Hall did last year as an OF to platoon with Langerhans in LF and spell Bradley every so often, Bradley would be the DH, and you’d sign a 1B… but that’s not going to happen this year.)
It seems to me that Saunders will play in Tacoma until Bradley blows up or Griffey gets injured. One of those things will happen at some point in the season. Until that happens Saunders get more AB and playing time in Tacoma.
It would seem to me that Z has played this well. Bradley can either exceed expectations or Saunders will have a slot to fit into when Bradley blows up.
Let’s find a 1B and SP.
As for Griffey, don’t underestimate the importance of tickling Ichiro and supporting Bradley’s fragile ego. That could be quite a few wins right there.
I think like most people here I love all the moves so far this season with the exeption of the Morrow trade and the Griffey bring back.
I understand the latter wa
I think like most people here I love all the moves so far this season with the exeption of the Morrow trade and the Griffey bring back.
I understand the latter was a business decision, but it may come at the cost of bringing Branyan back. Which leads me to the question: How many wins did we give up by having Griffey/Hall/Langerhans/etc. filling those 500 or so at bats that would have gone to Branyan?
Your intuition is correct. The difference is much more than one tenth of a win.
Lopez:
Career, home OPS: .689
Career, road OPS: .740
That’s a significant difference, but last season it was crazy-off-the-charts different:
2009, home OPS and sOPS+: .641 65
2009, road OPS and sOPS+: .883 138
Last year, at home, Lopez at the plate = Rob Johnson (.615 OPS)
Last year, on the road, Lopez at the plate = Russell Branyan (.867 OPS)
I don’t see any splits for park in the Fangraphs player data. Am I just missing it?
What I’ve always done is go to baseball reference and look at OPS+ (which is park adjusted) as well as look at OPS for the home road split (which is what I did for Lopez).
If there is a better way, point me to it and I will use it in the future.
although, career wise, he has played 261 games at short, more than any other position except for 266 games at third.
I think a bigger concern with Hall is his hitting. His wOBA the last 4 years is .369, .317, .297, .261.
Not a good pattern. The M’s are really depending on a regression to the mean in 2010, as opposed to the trend representing a decreasing underlying skill set in which case he’ll be out of baseball very soon.
This comment was made in relation to Overbay. This is my question, exactly. What does this mean? Does it mean that it has been discussed and they haven’t agreed on anything yet? Does it mean that it just hasn’t happened yet? Or does it mean that it won’t happen?
Given the Jays desire to get rid of him and the Mariners need for a cheap reliable option at 1st, it seems odd that two deals involving the two teams could have come and gone with hardly a whisper of his name–that is, unless it’s something that just isn’t going to happen.
Perhaps I’m just over-analyzing things…
Back to Vlad Guerrero for a minute, do his knees prevent him from playing 1st base some of the time, and couldn’t Bradley play 1st base the rest of the time?
Couldn’t we also then start with Saunders as the regular LF, and only demote him to AAA if he does not perform. Sure, this makes Langerhans an overpaid bench warmer, but to test out what we have in Saunders, I think it’s worth it, if it doesn’t work out, back to the platoon solution.
So a regular lineup would be something like:
1B/DH: Guerrero/Bradley
2nd/3rd: Lopez/Figgins
SS: Wilson
LF: Saunders
CF: Gutierrez
RF: Ichiro!
Guerrero, supposedly, is relatively cheap, so it would also leave some cash for a Sheets/Pedro signing for the #4 spot in the rotation.
Again, this all hinges on Guerrero’s knees, and if he can play even 40-50 games at 1st, but if he can, then I think it could work.
But the team only has ~$10M left to spend. How do you propose filling 1b+SP+DH on that budget?
Also, is Brzeczyszczykiewicza pronounced exactly as it’s spelled?
No, when I said it, I meant that Langerhans was a better baseball player than Lopez. I will admit to some hyperbole in the statement, but I meant it to be read the way it came across.
I don’t know the details of Langerhans’ 2007, but at first glance I find it hard to believe at first glance that 244 PAs spread across three different teams in a single season is likely to be representative of a player’s actual talent, when all the other seasons have had him significantly better than that.
I have to say I’m more interested in having a discussion than in humbling anybody, but since you asked so nicely, I have degrees in Economics and Information Systems, and while it has been a few years since I actually designed and ran an experiment to prove an hypothesis, I do still know the difference between a standard deviation and a least-squares regression.
Dave,
Great analysis. It really brings out the roster flexibility that Z has built into the lineup going into 2010 even with Griffey occupying a bench spot. My only real concern here is what happens if (and probably when) 2 or 3 of these guys get hurt. If you look back at Bradley, Griffey, Hall and for arguments sake Jack Wilson you can pretty much count on 2 or more of these guys being hurt at the same time.
This is why I tend to lean towards the M’s needing more flexibility out of their 1b option, someone like Luke Scott who you have mentioned in the past that can also cover LF if needed.
This would allow more flexibility for the front office in who they call up from the minors to cover the vacated roster spot.
Sign Branyan to a one year deal, Try to pick up Sheets if he is to expensive or signs somewhere else maybe take a look a V. Padilla as a SP option. Padilla does a good job of killing innings and posted a war of 2.0. Dont give out more than one year contracts on either guy for we need some flexability with 2011 payroll in we are to sign Felix.
I’d love to see Randy Johnson back in a Mariners uniform. If we get him and Lyle Overbay I’d be pretty happy.
I like Sheets but I think he’ll go elsewhere on a 2 or 3 year deal. I don’t hink the M’s will take the risk on more then one year. Maybe resign Washburn for 1 year, if he does well trade him at the deadline again. Also Bedard would be an option but probably not until May. Fister could hold down that starter position until then.
On second look, you may have been closer than I thought. Safeco depresses runs scored by about 5%, so last years team that scored 640 runs would have been expected to score about 660 in a nuetral park. With Lopez getting about 10% of the plate appearances, that adds about 2 runs to his offense. Probably a little more because he was better than the average Mariner hitter last year and right handers are hurt more. So maybe as much as 3 or 4 runs better in a neutral park.
And for a couple people that asked, Fangraphs WAR (if that’s the version you were refering to) does not make any adjustments for park or league. At least not unless and until they switch to wRC+.
And for a couple people that asked, Fangraphs WAR (if that’s the version you were refering to) does not make any adjustments for park or league. At least not unless and until they switch to wRC+.
So Lopez is more like a 2.5-3.0 WAR player if park effects are removed, instead of a 2.0-2.5 WAR player? That’s a fairly substantial difference in value, and places him pretty solidly as a solid MLB 2B… and he’s STILL younger than Jeff Clement.
Plus that totally disregards that fact that if he played somewhere where it was easier to hit homers, pitchers would probably throw him fewer strikes and he might actually walk thirty times.
No he won’t. He has trouble identifying what is and is not a strike, he will never walk a lot. Look up players with simillar numbers in their early career, they usually max at 30-35 walks in their mid to late thirties. If they can stick that long.
I suppose that would depend on which WAR metric you are using. Rally includes park and league effects, using TotalZone instead of UZR, and has Lopez at 1.7 WAR last year.
eponymous coward,
Here’s my assumption (and for the record it’s totally possible that I’m wrong on this and if that’s the case, I’m totally willing to hear all about what’s right):
I was under the impression that one of the major components of WAR is wOBA which DOES factor in park effects. However parks do not treat all hitters equally. I definitely think the Safe is a lot more damaging to pull power righties like Jose and Mike Cameron than it is to pull hitting lefties like Raul or Russ or even to less pull centric righties like Edgar and Bret Boone. I don’t think I’m alone on that (I’m not am I? AM I?). For that reason, I assume the park adjustments are imperfect. They can scale all Mariners hitters up by 5% because SafeCo allowed 5% less runs than the average park or whatever, but I had assumed that they do not factor in hitting style. Of course, I could be wrong. If they really are able to determine exactly how much SafeCo hurt Jose, then I’m even more impressed by sabermetric analysts than I was already.
And then Nathaniel posts something that shows that my assumption was wrong and that I landed on the correct conclusion completely by accident. Eh, what the hell. I’ll post this anyways.
WAR on Fangraphs includes blanket park effects which adjusts everyone the same way – this works for retrospective value (which is what WAR is for) and not as well for true talent level discussions (which is what you guys are talking about in regards to Lopez).
Yes! I was right!
So I was wrong about that. I thought I had heard several times that Fangraphs didn’t use park factors.
It’s easy to assume that Safeco hurts Lopez more than other players – certainly it hurts him more than left-handers – but as far as I know, no one has ever really studied the issue in depth. Without any knowledge to tell us any different, it’s probably best to say that Safeco affects Jose Lopez the same way it affects all other right-handers.
Nicely written and analyzed article with some good comments. I learned a few things.