160 Responses to “Pete’s Edgar-Vote-Tracking-Effort”

1. Paul B on January 6th, 2010 10:51 am

   Baker, ugh, drags up the “not on the first ballot” argument.

2. wazzu93 on January 6th, 2010 10:52 am

   MLB.com votes (Bloom and Bodley omitted since they’re already on the list)

   Mike Bauman NO
   Peter Gammons NO
   Ken Gurnick NO
   Chris Haft NO
   Carrie Muskat NO
   Mark Newman NO
   Marty Noble NO
   Tom Singer YES
   Lyle Spencer NO
   Jim Street YES
   T.R. Sullivan NO

3. Pete Livengood on January 6th, 2010 10:53 am

   Watching MLB TV’s HoF show, a couple of guys I previously hadn’t seen a ballot (or at least a full ballot) from revealed who they voted for.

   Peter Gammons voted for Alomar, Blyleven, Dawson, Larkin, Raines, Trammel, and McGwire.

   Tom Verducci voted for Alomar, Larkin, Raines, and McGriff.

   No Edgar from either of them.

4. Mike Snow on January 6th, 2010 10:59 am

   Okay, final known tally is 39 yes, 56 no, 41%.

5. wazzu93 on January 6th, 2010 11:12 am

   Sheesh, Dawson is the only guy in? And Edgar gets less than 33%-bummer.

6. illdonk on January 6th, 2010 11:16 am

   Edgar received 36.2%. It looks like voters with web presences and who publicized their votes did skew towards him.

   How much must it absolutely suck to be Bert Blyleven? I wouldn’t vote for him, but this year-after-year stringing-along has to just be torture…

7. nvn8vbryce on January 6th, 2010 11:39 am

   I guess that I don’t understand how someone whom MLB found worthy enough to name a league-wide award after (a la the Cy Young) couldn’t get voted into the HoF on his first vote.

   Yes, I understand that there are major feelings of inferiority felt towards the DH from those that only see teams on the senior circuit. I also understand the feelings of those that believe that the DH is only a part-time position – and to an extent, I can agree with them.

   However, the above are only a small portion of what Edgar meant to the Mariners. No player with the exception of Junior or possibly the Bone has had the impact on the Mariners franchise like Edgar.

   If it wasn’t for the efforts of Edgar and Jr., we may not be having this discussion today as the Mariners would have been plucked from Seattle just as the SuperSonics were under an owner that couldn’t get a replacement for the Kingdome.

   While this is very discouraging, I am still determined to see Edgar get into the HoF. It may take some effort from us in USS Mariner land along with other bloggers to make some of these writers wake up to what Edgar is and was for the Mariners.

8. Pete Livengood on January 6th, 2010 12:15 pm

   Where are you getting that percentage, illdonk? MLB TV reported Edgar getting 32.7%…. Now I see that the Hall of Fame itself is reporting that 36.2% (actually 36.178%, 195 votes out of 539 cast, 210 votes shy of election; 7th highest vote total).

   Here’s the ballot:

   1. Andre Dawson, 420 of 539, 77.9%
   2. Bert Blyleven, 400, 74.2%
   3. Roberto Alomar, 397, 73.7%
   4. Jack Morris, 282, 52.3%
   5. Barry Larkin, 278, 51.6%
   6. Lee Smith, 255, 47.3%
   7. Edgar Martinez, 195, 36.2%
   8. Tim Raines, 164, 30.4%
   9. Mark McGwire, 128, 23.7%
   10. Alan Trammel, 121, 22.4%
   11. Fred McGriff, 116, 21.5%
   12. Don Mattingly, 87, 16.1%
   13. Dave Parker, 82, 15.2%
   14. Dale Murphy, 63, 11.7%
   15. Harold Baines, 33, 6.1%

   I am not disappointed by Edgar’s showing. Over one-third of voters is a strong base from which to begin. Now the hard work of convincing the unconvinced begins, and we’ll need to do it fairly quickly.

   Why, do you ask? Well, with only one guy getting elected, next year’s ballot will include all the same guys as this year, minus only Dawson (who most did not think of as the top candidate, going in) and the guys who didn’t get to 5% (Galarraga, Ventura, Burks, Karros, Appier, Hentgen, Segui, Mike Jackson, Lankford, Shane Reynolds, and Zeile). First-timers next year include some players with decent HoF resumes, among them Jeff Bagwell, Kevin Brown, Juan Gonzalez, John Olerud, Rafael Palmeiro, and Larry Walker.

   Many writers are hesitant to vote for more than a few guys, even though they are allowed to vote for up to ten. I think the pressure to vote for Blyleven (5 votes shy – how do those 5 guys who returned blank ballots, including Jay Mariotti – feel now?) and Alomar (8 votes shy) will be pretty huge. Dave Parker is in his final year of eligibility next season (I think) – which will put some pressure on guys to check his name. With over 50%, both Morris and Larkin will get strong pushes. Bagwell is a strong first-year candidate. Walker, too, though how much the Coors effect discounts his candidacy remains to be seen. Olerud is kind of Edgar-lite, numbers-wise, but has the strong defensive resume that Edgar does not. I wouldn’t expect to see Palmeiro get any more of the vote than McGwire does, but both will have a niche of support in the 15-30% range (maybe less; unlike McGwire, Palmeiro actually received a suspension for PEDs). Same with Juan Gonzalez, though I suspect he’ll have trouble getting more than 10%. Kevin Brown, who was named in the Mitchell Report, may also have some trouble as a result.

   Still, a crowded ballot. If the ballot isn’t cleared of 5-7 names next year, it looks like 2012 will be the year Edgar needs to slip through – the only member of that underwhelming first-year class who should attract some attention is Bernie Williams (the others, like Jeromy Burnitz, Vinny Castilla, Javy Lopez, Carl Everett, Tim Salmon, and Ruben Sierra – not so much).

   After that, the 2013 and 2014 clases are loaded.

9. Pete Livengood on January 6th, 2010 12:25 pm

   Also, I am encouraged that the error rate for our informal sample here was within about 5% (Jeff reported we counted 39 of 95 cast for Edgar, 41.5%, and he got 36.2%). I actually expected the sample to be a bit more biased toward the presumably sabermetrically-inclined voters with enough web presence to reveal their ballots on the Internet. With a sample of about 20% of the electorate, a +/- of about 5% is pretty good, I would think.

10. whidbeyed on January 7th, 2010 12:59 am

    The place to start the Edgar campaigning seems to be with the Chicago Tribune, which features 7 names on your “No” list.

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