M’s Sign Garko
Well, we finally know who was the long rumored right-handed 1B/DH type the Mariners were after – Ryan Garko, who they have now signed. He gets a 1 year, $550,000 deal, which is quite frankly a massive bargain. To get a quality platoon player in his prime for barely more than the league minimum… for comparison, he’s basically the equal of Garrett Atkins, who signed for $4.5 million earlier this winter.
So, on the cost to acquire relative to talent scale, he obviously makes a lot of sense. The question, though, is how the team will fit him onto the roster.
Garko is a lefty masher, a guy who has consistently hit LHP well but been just okay against RHP. Given the current roster, there aren’t going to be too many DH at-bats open against LHP, with Byrnes slotted in as the left fielder and Bradley shifting to DH against southpaws. So, to get Garko in the line-up vs lefties, he’ll have to play first base, which means he’ll be Kotchman’s platoon partner. That downgrades the defense quite a bit (Garko isn’t much with the glove), and it will be interesting to see how often Wak is willing to make that offense-for-defense swap, especially if Kotchman is hitting RHPs well.
The other issue, and one that we’ve discussed quite a bit lately, is how this kind of move will affect the composition of the bench. Here’s the roster, as it stands – we’ll use vs RHP as the example for now.
Starters: Johnson/Moore-Kotchman-Lopez-Wilson-Figgins-Bradley-Gutierrez-Ichiro-Griffey
Bench: Bard-Hannahan-Garko-Byrnes
This is the bench if the M’s continue to carry 12 pitchers, limiting themselves to just four reserve position players. You have a backup catcher, a backup first baseman, a reserve utility infielder, and a reserve outfielder. That should be enough, right?
Nope. Because here’s what it now looks like against LHP.
Starters: Johnson/Moore-Garko-Lopez-Wilson-Figgins-Byrnes-Gutierrez-Ichiro-Bradley
Bench: Bard-Hannahan-Kotchman-Griffey
Note the problem that will occur in any game where the team faces an LHP and one of the outfielders has to leave, whether via injury/ejection/whatever. If Gutierrez runs into a wall, you move Byrnes to center and stick Griffey in left, and that’s your outfield for the day. Assuming, of course, Griffey’s knees are up to playing the outfield that day, and that Wak is willing to sacrifice the team’s biggest strength (OF defense) and turn it into a glaring weakness. If Junior can’t play the field, or Wak doesn’t want him to, then you’re doing something like putting Garko out there and sticking Kotchman at first, which isn’t much better, honestly.
This isn’t some outlandish scenario where two guys crash into each other and have to leave the game. This will be an issue every single time the M’s face an LHP. They’ll just be playing without a fourth outfielder, which will get really old, really fast.
Given this, I think the M’s have to carry another outfielder. Bradley and Byrnes just aren’t reliable enough to count on them being able to cover all the innings in the outfield between them, especially if Byrnes is also the only backup to Gutierrez and Ichiro. And if you’re going to carry another outfielder, that means a five man bench, which means an 11 man pitching staff.
That they signed Garko, and they know all of the stuff I just wrote above, I have to believe that is a real consideration. Jack even mentioned that an 11 man staff would be “ideal” at our USSM gathering in January, but also mentioned that a decision like that would have to be made during spring training, after they look at how the pitching staff shakes out.
Perhaps I’m reading too much into this signing, but I’d bet that Garko’s addition makes it far more likely that the team breaks camp with only six relievers.
That was all of six games. There’s no way you can look at a player for 6 games and have much of a clue if he can handle the position. The best evidence we have is his minor league history, none of which suggests that he would be able to move over to second and play well there. Is it possible that he could do it? Well, yes. Is it very likely? Not at all.
How likely is it that Tui is the next Clement and gets traded because we have Figgins at 3rd and Lopez/Ackley at 2nd for the near future? Is it really right to make Tui wait 3-4 more years to get to the majors when other teams can use him, and the M’s can use what those other teams have? I just don’t see a future for him unless Figgins goes to second, and that is unlikely. I belive there was already a discussion about that not being of an advantage to the team anyways.
Most likely, I see Lopez staying at 2nd this year, Ackley coming up next year, and Lopez and Tui getting traded next off season, or at the deadline to get that 3rd starter we may need if Snell/Olson/Vargas/French/Fister arn’t cutting it.
Thanks IwearMsHats. I should have used the word then in the proper context.
Is it really right to make Tui wait 3-4 more years to get to the majors when other teams can use him, and the M’s can use what those other teams have? I just don’t see a future for him unless Figgins goes to second, and that is unlikely.
Well he could alsways be the backup catcher.
I don’t think we will see Garko behind the plate unless it’s an absolute emergency.
Also, I think Bard will be the back-up catcher unless he is awful in ST.
Moore probably needs more time in Tacoma and Johnson might not even be healthy.
And, they also signed Alfonzo.
So if the two kids aren’t ready yet, we have two guys with a lot of MLB experience invited to camp.
Garko will not be one of the two catchers.
The best evidence we have is his minor league history, none of which suggests that he would be able to move over to second and play well there.
Well, actually, if you read the thread I linked to, that’s not clearly the case. Several people who saw him in Tacoma said “he’s done OK enough during his time at 2B to deserve a shot there”.
With all the changes to the team, did the number of wins for 2010 go up substantially or just end up near what Dave proposed back before the trading started?
Seems like this team has enough young players where their up side has more chance of happening than the opposite especially the pitching staff where Lee is the only one over 30.
Even with Griffey, the expected 25 players would average below 30.
Cant see Tui or Saunders making this team unless a couple people injure themselves during spring training which has a clear possibility.
Is it just me, or would Garko have a lot more MLB catching experience if he wasn’t on a team with Victor Martinez? He might be more than talented enough to be a #2, or catch once a week, etc.
Options are never bad.
I agree on the #2 catcher option for Garko. How much do you need from a backup catcher? One a week? What if Lee decides Garko is his man? As a pitcher I’d want his bat in the lineup vs. other options.
He obviously has the tools. And if he IS some drop off from another backup catcher, I am not certain that the negative outweighs the positive of the extra pitcher or extra position player flexibility. Especially for an offensively tepid and injury prone roster.
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21 games at AAA. Looking “OK enough” to “deserve a shot there” is hardly good evidence that he’d be able to play the position well in the Majors. If he plays the position a lot down in Tacoma this year and plays it competently, we’d have a lot more confidence that he’d be able to play it well in the Majors. Right now, there’s not much reason to think that he could.
If the M’s are still in the hunt for a 3rd SP, does the idea of going with 11 pitchers change which pitcher we go for?
I’d imagine we’d be placing more premium on innings eaters. And that that might make Bedard less interesting. Dave tweeted about Pedro/Smoltz, but both of those guys can only be counted on for 5 innings a start. I’m not advocating Washburn, but at least he averaged more than 6 per start last year.
Anyone sign Livan Hernandez yet?
[ot]
I wonder how “rusty” Garko is with catching. He did it at the “AAA” level as well. It appears his bat is what brought him to the big club, with Victor Martinez and Co. ahead of him. I hope he gets a good look in ST at the catching position. That would be a real nice fit, if he is competent.
I love all the moves that Jack Z has made, as a whole so far, but the one move that appears to be horrible so far is the trading of Bill Hall for Kotchman. Kotchman is only a defensive player at best. His career OBP is only .337 and his SLG is only .406. For a position that is primarily a power position, I believe the M’s could have used the 3.52 million, that they signed Kotchman for, and given this to Branyan or someone else. The signing of Garko officially signaled the end of a possible Branyan reunion to the M’s. I know this is only for one year, hopefully, and this will lead to the trade for Adrian or Prince, but I just can’t help but feel that the M’s did Branyan and the fans wrong.
Jim Street says “rumblings in blogoland are that the M’s may be bringing back Bedard.”
Just one question, where is blogoland?
Boy, you guys sure are determined to take this thread off topic, aren’t you?
I think most people would agree with this. Note, though, that the M’s shed $1M in Bill Hall’s salary, so Kotchman’s net cost is $2.5M.
It wouldn’t surprise me much if Jack Z actually does regret the Kotchman trade, considering where the market for Branyan and Garko eventually went.
It also wouldn’t surprise me if Jack Z knows more than us about Branyan’s back and Kotchman’s likelihood of breakout.
Moore starting in Tacoma, Bard is the backup catcher, and Langerhans will be in Moore’s bench spot. Garko is your emergency catcher, as he was a catcher at Stanford in college. There is your extra outfielder and you can come out of Peoria with a 12 man pitching staff.
From Jeff Kingston via Pro Ball NW
Here’s an attempt to get back on topic…
Doesn’t this strongly suggest that the Mariners are looking to bolster the DH far more than platooning Kotchman? If that’s the case, doesn’t this mean that Bradley is the left-fielder with nothing more than an occasional appearance at DH?
Also, Garko’s contract was structured heavily based on plate appearances. This leads me to believe that the Mariners laid out a scenario for Garko where he could be reasonably assured of significant playing time. Do you think it’s reasonable to believe that Garko was told he’d be given a chance to outperform Griffey and, if he does that, he will have a good chance of reaching at least some of those plate appearance bonuses?
Dave, does this quote from Jeff Kingston change you playing time calculations at all – or did you already consider this info?
CCW,
I liked the Kotchman move. LaRoche would’ve been better, but not much. And he wasn’t available at the price Arizona paid at the time Jack made the Kotchman deal. I also think Kotchman has the potential for a nice upside surprise. I think he’s one of the key guys to watch this year.
It was the Morrow move that I hated. 🙂
I would be very surprised if Garko catches a single game this year. Zduriencik is a defense-oriented GM and he didn’t sign Garko to be a catcher.
I wouldn’t read much into Garko’s plate appearance incentives. Lots of players have goofy incentive clauses for things they’ll never attain.
But these are very attainable and they start at just 325 PAs and move up in increments of 25 or 50.