Game 13 Recap
Dave · April 18, 2010 at 5:28 pm · Filed Under Mariners
Boo, 6-7.
I didn’t see the game, so I have nothing to offer, other than it doesn’t look like I missed much. So much for Snell having his best start as a Mariner, though if he was under the weather, we can give him a mulligan. He’ll have to show something pretty soon though, especially if Fister and Vargas pitch well the next couple of days.
Oh, and it appears that the team made three more outs on the bases today. This is becoming a huge problem.
Absolutely. We lost this one largely because of the baserunning errors.
Well, that and a lack of hitting with men in scoring position.
1-5 (J Lopez 0-2, F Gutierrez 0-1, A Moore 0-1, C Kotchman 1-1)
On a positive note, Kotchman is lookking GOOD at 1st base. Both on defense and with the bat.
Agreed. That was my first thought when the game ended.
Contact and speed are the strength of the offense. Granted Kotchman being aggressive is the wrong move. Ichiro and Figgings have to keep running, unless extra base hits are more frequent.
Some of the base running was so horrible that you almost had to start questioning if they were trying to get outs.
Wonder how Kenji is doing in Japan. Are we missing him yet? Moore has looked very raw.
Seeing Figgins sacrifice in the 8th was extremely frustrating. Having a good OBP guy give up an out in the situation is just foolish. (If it’s Jack Wilson, maybe its OK.) Why managers love the sac bunt so much is beyond me. Even if they don’t know or believe in the stats, haven’t they seen it fail enough times to know not to do it? I like Wak, but he bunts too often.
(And if Figgins did it on his own, Wak should tell him not to do that.)
Was at the game today. The infield defense was awesome but the baserunning was atrocious.
I’m OK with aggressive mistakes but this was just dumb. Kotchman took off for second after a line drive hit when Byrnes had already stopped at third and the ball was being cut-off. Don’t know if he ran on his own or Tinsley didn’t stop him on the bag. Ichiro’s was an aggressive move — looked like it might be a hit — but still shouldn’t have been double up. I’m stricken the third error from my mind, but recall it being terrible at the time.
Not sure what Wak was doing with the pen, burning through 4 pitchers in 4 innings. Isn’t there a game tomorrow?
The baserunning flat out cost them at least two runs. Hope the guys can straighten it out soon because they can’t afford to keep throwing runs away.
The good news was the Ms were in it in spite of Detroit having massive opportunity to bury us. (RISP 2-for-18?).
The sac bunt was a bizarre call in the 8th, not even a dyed-in-wool by-the-book guy bunts down two in the eigth with Figgins hitting from the left side. The chances of him getting doubled up are zero. Crazy call to give up an out there with a chance for big inning.
Agree, with fishbeak and dave, for all the talk about belief system, the Ms are a really bad baserunning team at this point. 11 steals and 5 CS is not going to scare anyone, but forget the steals, they are just running into 2-3 outs every game just through bad judgement. Kotchman does every other time he is on base.
Our catchers dont catch the baseball so good, and no, Mr Sims and Mr. Rizzs, they are not getting “crossed up”, they are just missing the ball.
Lastly, Milton Bradley never seems to know how many outs there are and what the count is, happens once every game, he is a DH on his best day. He came up throwing again yesterday after he caught the third out, he does that regularly.
End rant
I cringed and cursed when that happened. I know what he was trying to do, but the rest of the team (especially Lopez who swung at a first pitch in the dirt) isn’t cut out to finish the situation…
I said to myself if Wilson for some reason gets on base we will win, and then that happened.
On Figgins’ sacrifice:
Is it at all possible he was bunting for a base hit? I don’t remember exactly what the bunt looked like, but the more I think about it, the more I can’t make any sense of sacrificing there.
Milton wasn’t confused about the count yesterday. He was fooled on a pitch and thought it’d be called a strike.
I can’t defend him on the throw with three outs, though.
Any news on the Cliff suspension appeal?
Nope he came up showing bunt and bunted directly to the pitcher. I feel like the way he puts the ball in play and makes things happen, we need him swinging the bat.
I was fine with the Figgins sac bunt. It gave one of the the hottest hitters in the league (Gutierrez) a shot at tying the game with a base hit. Lopez’s bat seems to be coming around a bit too. He also could have tied it.
Seems like one of those calls that looks a lot better in hindsight when it works in your favor.
Personally, I was fine with the bunt. It moved up the runners and if he got a good one down it’s a base hit, which is a bonus. Then we had 1 out with runners on 2nd and 3rd. Right idea, bad execution.
Hitting with runners in scoring position is nothing magical – it’s just hitting. The M’s don’t have many really good hitters, so they are going to struggle with RISP. Just like they struggle with the bases empty. Or with a man on first; when the hot dog vendor is in section 119; when Sims wears a leather hat, or a cloth hat, or some other hat, or no hat… Nothing they can really do about it, we knew going in that this roster was average at best in the batters box.
But the blunderifous baserunning, that they can do something about. I don’t remember Kotchman having a rep as a blockhead on the basepaths, so I’m assuming this is the result of coaches saying ‘be aggressive’. Coaches should stop saying that.
That’s why going based on percentages is a lot betterthan going with who’s hot. Hot and cold streaks aren’t predictable (or rather, when they’re going to end isn’t predictable). Bunting with Figgins just gave up an out for very marginal gains. Down two runs, giving up an out with a guy who’s pretty good at avoiding making them is bad, bad, bad.
What I really want to know is how long will Wakamatsu keep running out the lineup with the worst DH in the league batting 5th?
Our cleanup hitter and Griffey have combined for 4 RBIs in 13 games. That’s ridiculous production for what should be the most productive RBI hitters.
The first baserunning error today was very perplexing…I believe that the first base coach sent him.
Ichiro’s out on the basepaths was just a hit-and-run gone wrong. Not much you can do about it.
I don’t understand Griffey batting against Coke. What is the point of Sweeney being on the roster if your aren’t pinch hitting there?
Miguel Cabrera can really rake. Even his out was impressive today. And his HR wasn’t that far from leaving the ballpark. Wow!
“The Mariners still have not heard the final decision on Lee’s appeal. Jack Zduriencik was hoping to hear today but now it looks like Monday will be the earliest they could learn how many games Lee will have to miss.” – Shannon Drayer
I know this is OT, but – if the appeal fails, can’t he just come back “healthy” before he’s actually ready to go, then serve his “suspension” on a game he wouldn’t actually have pitched anyway? Sure, we’d only have 24 guys active really, but would that be so bad to get the suspension out of the way?
Somebody has to sit Kotchman down and talk to him about his decision-making on the basepaths. Getting into rundowns twice in two days is just inexcusable.
Based on the decade’s worth of data distilled into the Run Expectancy Matrix:
runs scored with runners on 1st and 2nd, zero outs: 1.573
runs scored with runners on 2nd and 3rd, one out: 1.467
It’s a small change, but it is a change to the negative. Naturally, the individual hitters involved are going to be a factor. If you think Figgins is slow and hits into a lot of double-plays, maybe having him bunt is a good idea. If you think Gutierrez is a RH pull hitter who is likely to hit a deep fly to left that will score a runner from 3rd, maybe having Figgins advance the runners is a good idea. But I hope Wak doesn’t think that.
Apparently he does, but even if he gets the sac fly that’s only one run. And then you have a runner on second with Lopez at bad… somehow I don’t see that as a positive.
I was at the game today ( first game of the season.) What is up with the Mariner fans? A little support for the home team would be nice. It was so fucking quiet all game long. Stand up and cheer when a good play happens. Why don’t people understand it is ok to cheer for more than homeruns? I had some big fat lady next to me rocking her baby to sleep. And everytime I stood up to for an awesome double play people thought I was nuts. So lame. The fans need more coffee or we need more Sounder fans at the game. It is so annoying when the three Tiger fans at the game made more noise then 25,000 Mariner fans. Less soccer moms at the game please and more baseball fans. Thank you.
Telling people what kind of fan they should be is discouraged around here.
Coming from a guy named “behappy.”
You’re welcome.
Answering several things:
@Utis – According to the NPB English site, Kenji is hitting .274/.312/.521 with 3 HR’s.
@M’s baserunning – I was at the game too, and when I saw the rundown play develop I was standing at the concourse behind home looking towards RF. I saw Kotchman take off for 2nd, then I turned and looked towards 3rd. Saw Byrnes stop, then realized Kotchman was meat. But when Byrnes broke for and was thrown out at home, my next thought was why not just let Kotchman get tagged out. At least you still have the runner @ 3rd.
@Figgins’ sac bunt – As soon as I saw that, I thought, “Hey, that’s something I’d see at Koushien.” Second thought was that he was playing for the 2 runs now. Remember who you had coming up after Ichiro got on base:
Figgins, Guti, Lopez, Griffey, Byrnes, Kotchman, etc.
After the bunt, you have runners on 2nd and 3rd with one out. You need at least 1 base hit, maybe 2.
So with 1 out, you’re banking on Guti and Lopez getting those hits. Because if they didn’t, you were depending on exactly who came up in the 9th to get the 2 runs:
Griffey, Byrnes, Kotchman, etc.
And as much as we like those guys, I think Wak was going for the tie right then and there. That and right when Figgins made the bunt, the call was made to the bullpen. Wetteland pointed at DA and made the “T” sign which meant if we tied the game, he was coming in.
Other notes about the game:
– Since I was there, I decided to stand behind home to see if Snell’s plant foot was still crooked. It may have been, but it certainly wasn’t totally pointed in.
– I thought today would have been a good day to practice taking pitches against Scherzer since he has a habit of lasting only 5-6 innings and throwing a lot of pitches. It didn’t quite feel like it happened especially w/r/t Lopez and Moore. Yes, I know about Lopez and not to expect him to change. But I really don’t know what to make of Moore. On Friday, Rob taking that bases loaded walk (and two walks total!) made me think he was at least getting that part of the memo. He does have an OBP of .391.
-Corollary to that last thought. Why isn’t OBP shown on the stats after the 1st AB for each batter?
An old Irish expression: Is í ding di féin a scoileann an dair.
Translation: It is a wedge of itself that splits the oak.
Meaning: Beware of the enemy within.
Poor baserunning can lose games more quickly and more often than good baserunning.
Lesson learned, boys.
Because, contrary to logical consideration, OBP isn’t widely recognized as a more accurate measure of a given batter’s ability/skill/production/etc.
Shameful, yeah, but it is what it is.
I know, but given the new administration, perhaps some education is in order?
The more practical explanation is that there is only so much space on the scoreboard, and after the first plate appearance, they give you the batter’s results in prior plate appearances.
Earlier in the week I made a post saying that I think we will be 8-8 by the end of the homestand (wednesday). That seems like a very viable option yet. The Mariners just need to take two out of three from the Orioles at home. I looked at all the pitching matchups and it is very possible that we could go on another 4 game winning streak. We may be 9-7 by the end of the week, and I would say that is pretty good with no Cliff Lee, or Erik Bedard and after an incredibly slow start!
I’m not a huge fan of Griffey’s skills at this point in his career, and we were sitting way out in the front row of section 195, but it was pretty impressive on his first at bat to pull a sharp single between the first and second baseman on what looked like a high fastball. The reading in the park was 94mph and it surprised me that he could pull that pitch.
Eric Byrnes had a few adventures in left field that were amusing to watch.
That home run by Cabrera was crushed. Something he’s pretty good at. Otherwise Snell pitched reasonably well (though the walks were not an especially good idea on his part…). He pitched out of the Eric Byrnes play-the-ball-into-a-leadoff-triple in the first inning that was pretty impressive.
And overall, even with the loss, it was an enjoyable afternoon sitting in the sun at the ballpark.
I think Sweeney will be gone by next week, and the reason is Bradley’s knee. If Bradley is a day to day game decision, and Burns is in LF, that leaves one player on the bench to back up 7 positions. On days Bradley can’t play, Tuiosopo is the only backup infielder or outfielder. Yesterday’s game when Bradley pinch hit for Wilson was a great example of what could happen. Say Bradley hit a home run to tie the game, which would be great, but then with Wilson out of the game the M’s would be going into an extra innings with Tui playing short, and not a single player on the bench that can come into the game on defense.
Sorry to say, Don Wakamatsu is a dinosaur, a relic. Even after the already-obvious revelations concerning the importance of OBP and, in particular, the absurdity of the sac bunt were revealed in Moneyball, he continues on his path of utter obsession over giving away his team’s most precious commodity – outs. In carrying this delusion to its zenith, the 8th inning Figgins bunt became one of the most egregiously boneheaded moves in history. What sane, moderately enlightened person would deliberately give up one-third of his team’s prized 8th-inning outs in order to move his runners one-fourth of the way closer to home? Down by 2? With your speedy number 2 hitter at the plate? Knowing, with Ichiro at first, the likelihood of grounding into a double play is zero? Knowing that Figgins can’t hit a two-run double by bunting? Who would do that? When Figgins squared on the first pitch, I threw my remote across the room and nearly threw up.
I can’t hardly freaking take it anymore. The Mariners need to score runs and they ain’t gonna do it by surrendering outs. Period.
I really eexpected Byrnes to try to score on Kotchman’s single, but couldn’t see on TV if this would have been worth the risk. No one seems to have commented on what his chances of scoring (from scoring position) would have been, though it seems like they would have been higher than the move he wound up making during the Kotchman rundown. I feel more forgiving of Kotchman under the assumption that he figured Byrnes would be trying to score so of course he’s leg out 2nd base- it might even draw the cutoff and ensure Byrnes scored. I would be interested also in knowing if Brumley or Byrnes made the decision to stop as well as the decision to go during the rundown. Lastly, is it worth noting that we’ve changed our 3rd base coach? Does this have significant effect on all the baserunning snaffus?
I think Byrnes made the right call to try to go home once Kotchman was in a rundown. Even if he felt there was a 95% chance he’d be out then it was the correct decision.
If Kotchman gets tagged out which was about 99% certainty then Byrnes would be on 3rd with 2 out, which has a 0.37008 run expectancy. If he gets tagged out at home then Kotchman is in at second with two out, with a 0.32193 RE. So you are really only giving up 0.04815 RE by trying to go home, even assuming you’d be out. Then you have to balance that with the chance that the throw is offline, the 1b doesn’t make the throw or Byrnes knocks the ball out. Then you’ve got a run in and Kotchman on 2nd with one out an RE of 0.68844. So Byrnes wasn’t giving up much by going, and there was pretty big payoff. It works out to a potential 35-1 payoff on the bet to go home.
If Kotchman stuck at 1st, with Byrnes at 3rd with one out the RE would have been 1.20177.