Prospect Performance of the Year (to date), Part II
23-year-old manchild Carlos Peguero’s line tonight at West Tennessee: 4-5, 3HR.
Peguero’s now hitting .378/.452/.797 so far this year, with 9 home runs. He’s also striking out at a far lower rate than he did last year (21.6% of his ABs this year v. 35% last year). The past few years, Peguero’s been a lefthanded version of Greg Halman without the athleticism. So far this year, he’s done everything you could possibly hope for out of a young slugger.
Credit to Jay for never fully giving up on Peguero. For my part, I’ll admit I had more or less written him off before the start of this year. It’s early, but he’s back on my radar in a big way.
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14 Responses to “Prospect Performance of the Year (to date), Part II”
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Trade him before he turns into Wlad Balentien! 😉
My Oh My! (Do I have to pay copyright fees?)
What is a conservative projection for Peguero?
That he never makes it out of the minors.
It’s a month in Double-A. Please don’t go penciling Peguero into any future line-ups.
According to Grifol, “He has possibly the best power in the organization.”
Fully understood, hence me asking for a ‘conservative projection.’
I checked his numbers out at fangraphs (thanks dave).They weren’t really encouraging. He has a BABIP over .350 the last three years. Even with luck on his side, he K’s in Mark Reynolds fashion.
I agree don’t ‘pencil’ him in any future lineup at the Majors.
He could have the best power in the world but it doesn’t matter if he can’t hit the ball consistently and play defense.
The Wladimir Balentien comparison is a pretty apt one, though Wlad is a better athlete than Peguero. But it’s the same general skillset. A left-handed version may be a better fit for this ballpark, but that’s the kind of player we’re looking at.
Unless he can sustain the improvements in his contact rate, he’s probably not a big leaguer. Even if he can, he might be a marginal one.
The Mariners had a guy something like this over a decade ago. His name was David Arias. I hope Peguero doesn’t wind up being a PTBNL.
David Arias was also a roid user so who knows how good he actually was.
David Arias was also a roid user so who knows how good he actually was.
He and many others.
I think this line of conversation can end here.
Question about BABIP…what is the expected range of deviation from straight average. Basically at what point is a BABIP considered lucky or unlucky? Thanks.
Again (and I should have made this clearer in the post), the most I’m willing to say at this point is that Peguero’s back on my radar. He’s not a great prospect by any stretch. He is, though, adapting to Double-A in the early going in a way I never imagined he was capable of.
Preach…
As I understand it, the best way to look at the sustainability of BABIP is to look at GB/LD/FB rates and speed.
Faster players (Ichiro!) tend to have higher BABIP as they can beat out more throws to 1st. Players who hit a higher percentage of LD also have higher BABIP. I believe the rule of thumb was something like LD% + 12% tends to be close to BABIP before adjusting for speed.