Game 15, Orioles at Mariners
Hernandez vs Vargas, 7:10 pm
Despite his power displays the last couple of days, Wak decides to keep the standard line-up he’s been running out there the last week or so. Probably playing the “if it ain’t broke” card, so we’ll have to see a low scoring game or two before he gives up on the inexplicable Lopez/Griffey tandem in the 4/5 spots.
Vargas looks to match Fister again in the “leave me in the rotation contest”. Will be interesting to see how much he features that cutter again tonight.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Gutierrez, CF
Lopez, 2B
Griffey, DH
Bradley, LF
Kotchman, 1B
Moore, C
Wilson, SS
A Comparison Sure To Make You Shudder
Hat tip to Mike Salk for getting me thinking about comparable pitchers for Doug Fister. We bounced a few names back and forth, including Jon Garland and Chris Young, as tall right-handers with sub-par fastballs who have made it work in the big leagues. Garland’s more of a comp for Fister than Young is, since Young pitches up in the zone and gets strikeouts and flyballs, while Garland is more of the slight groundball guy that Fister is.
However, there’s one other very comparable pitcher to Fister, and you won’t like this one. In fact, let’s just throw out the numbers without the name first.
Comparable Pitcher, April, 2008: 89.3 MPH FB, 1.93 BB/9, 3.86 K/9, 45.6% GB%, .269 BABIP, 81.2% LOB%, 6% HR/FB, 2.79 ERA, 4.69 xFIP
Doug Fister, April 2010: 88.9 MPH FB, 1.89 BB/9, 4.26 K/9, 47.5% GB%, .212 BABIP, 82.4% LOB%, 0% HR/FB, 1.42 ERA, 4.42 xFIP
Pretty much the same profile – no walks, lots of contact, some groundballs but not a ton, good luck on balls in play allows a lot of stranded runners, creating an unsustainably low ERA.
Comparable Pitcher? You probably guessed by now, but it’s Carlos Silva. I don’t really need to tell you how things went for him after his first month as a Mariner.
This isn’t to say that Fister is going to implode, become the worst pitcher in the game, start fights with his teammates, and eat a disgusting amount of food. But, it should hopefully serve as a reminder that any pitcher can look good by throwing strikes and letting hitters get themselves out for short stretches of time. It doesn’t generally work very well in the long run, though. With no out pitch, good hitters will make Fister pay for being around the strike zone so much. The last two starts were really nice to watch, but don’t get used to it – he’s still the same guy he always was.
Lee Cleared; Set to Start May 2nd
There may not have been much of a case at first, but the points about Lee’s recovery from foot surgery, the abdominal injury, and his lack of work at that point in spring training, placed the errant pitch enough doubt to clear him. Because, you know, headhunting in a meaningless game between two teams that aren’t even in the same league made a whole lot of sense to begin with.
The result is a boon to the M’s regardless, but it will come at a good time too. Lee will be scheduled to face the Rangers on the 2nd, and then the Angels on the 8th, and then Tampa Bay on the 14th, which gives him enough room to work his way in against some of the weaker teams in our own division, while at the same time setting him up to be ready to face a legitimate challenge in the Rays. Our May schedule isn’t daunting, but it’s not the cakewalk April was set up to be either.
Game Fourteen Recap
Yay, 7-7.
I won’t be able to add much the next three nights, as MLB.tv’s insane blackout policies prevent me from watching any Orioles games. So, I’ll just be going off the box scores for the next few days.
Fister is quickly becoming Jarrod Washburn 2.0, just without all the annoying parts that came along with the old version. Throw strikes, make opposing batters hit their way on base, and trust your defense is a great recipe in Safeco Field, especially for a guy with middling stuff. He won’t keep this up, of course, but it’s nice that the M’s have a guy who can step in and eat innings when needed. I’d say Ian Snell’s shot at staying in the rotation when Cliff Lee returns just took a hit. He’s going to have to pitch well pretty soon, because Fister won’t give up his spot easily.
Two more extra base hits for Casey Kotchman tonight raise his season line to .286/.367/.595. Call me crazy, but maybe he shouldn’t hit seventh tomorrow.
Franklin Gutierrez left the game after what was described as wincing as he rounded the bases in the 7th inning. Apparently, he’s okay, but the M’s lack of outfield depth becomes a pretty huge problem if this persists. I don’t think anyone wants Eric Byrnes playing center field in a non-emergency.
Game 14, Orioles at Mariners
Bergesen vs Fister, 7:10 pm.
The Orioles stagger in at 2-11, but this team is not Astros-bad. Their offense is suffering from some key guys off to slow starts (including Adam Jones and Nick Marakis, who are clearly better than they’ve played so far), their pitchers are allowing a .341 BABIP, and they’ve lost a couple of close games when their closers have melted down. Don’t be fooled by their record – this series won’t be a cakewalk.
Bradley’s back in left field tonight. They know how he’s feeling better than we do, but the M’s are riding him really hard so far this year, as he’s currently on place to play in 139 games. He’s only done that once, back in 2004, when he played a career high 141. And he’s playing the outfield almost exclusively at this point. This can’t be sustained forever, but as long as the M’s are committed to Griffey in the line-up, they don’t have much of a choice, as we saw how bad the offense vs RHPs can be without Bradley. This will be something to watch going forward.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Gutierrez, CF
Lopez, 2B
Griffey, DH
Bradley, LF
Kotchman, 1B
Johnson, C
Wilson, SS
Monday Radio Hit
Starting tonight, I’m going to be doing a weekly radio spot on “The Locker Room” on 1510 KGA in Spokane. I’ll be on at 5:35 tonight, though most weeks it will be 5:20. You can listen live from the link on the right hand side of their page.
Some Changes At USSM
With Derek off to take over the fiction writing world, obviously USSM has lost a pretty big asset. We’re not going to be able to replace him, nor are we really going to try. But that doesn’t mean that we’re just folding up our tent and going home. To offset his loss, we’ve made some changes behind the scenes, and this post will hopefully help clarify what the site will look like going forward.
The Line Between Aggressive and Dumb
If you’ve watched the Mariners play the first two weeks of the season, you’ve seen the team’s speed create runs through stolen bases, forced errors, and taking home on shallow fly balls. You’ve also seen the team run themselves out of innings and make a load of inexplicable outs while trying to advance in situations where they had little chance of success.
So, it probably should not surprise you that the Mariners are tied for second in bases taken, They have advanced an extra 20 bases on fly balls, wild pitches, passed balls, and the like, and have added an additional 11 stolen bases to that total. Only the Dodgers have gotten more extra bases by running aggressively this year.
Also not a surprise? The Mariners lead the league in baserunning outs, having made nine while trying to take an extra base and six by getting caught stealing. In just 13 games, they have made a staggering 15 outs, taking at-bats away from their hitters and essentially canceling out all the good that the aggressiveness has done.
In most cases, taking an extra base is worth about a quarter of a run, but making an out on the bases costs a team about half a run. The out is essentially twice as bad as the advancement is good. So, when you’ve taken 31 bases but made 15 outs to do it, you’ve basically broken even, where the total overall value added to your offense by running has been no different than if the team had just played station to station baseball.
The argument that is usually made in favor of aggressive baserunning is that it puts pressure on the defense, but in reality, the M’s have routinely been taking pressure off of the defense by running themselves right out of rallies. There are few better things for a pitcher than having a runner in scoring position make an out, keeping him from having to throw high stress pitches out of the stretch. And the Mariners have made a lot of outs in situations where they already had the pitcher on the ropes, only to let him off the hook by getting thrown out.
For guys like Ichiro and Figgins, there should be a pretty long leash. They’ve proven to be two of the best baserunners in baseball over their careers, and they’ll add value through utilizing their speed throughout the year. But it’s the other guys that Wak has to rein in. Milton Bradley has already made three outs on the bases, while Casey Kotchman has made two (both on glaringly bad decisions this weekend). Bradley isn’t slow, but he’s got a long history of injuries that have routinely kept him off the field, and he’s not a good enough baserunner to justify the risk. Kotchman is one of the slowest guys in baseball, and simply shouldn’t be wandering away from a base he’s reached safely unless he can walk into the next one.
The top two guys can run and be aggressive. They have the ability to really add value through their wheels. The rest of the team, though, need to put the breaks on the craziness. The hitting isn’t good enough to overcome no-added-value baserunning, so the Mariners simply have to be smarter about picking their spots. Jack Wilson can’t get thrown out by 10 feet stealing second base anymore. For this team, guys on base are going to be a precious resource not to be wasted.
Let the top two guys run all they want, but the other seven, they need to show more restraint, and soon, because the Mariners can’t keep running themselves out of rallies like they have been through the first two weeks.
Minor League Wrap (4/8-18/10)
The wraps are back again, for a second minor league season. It’s your one-stop shop for all the data you need on the past week in minor league action, distilled into a more easily digested form (but littered with box scores for the more curious among you). As per usual, I’ll try to be around as much as I can to field questions about this and that when it comes up. Unless it’s about Rafael dePaula, because I haven’t heard anything lately.
To the jump!
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Game 13 Recap
Boo, 6-7.
I didn’t see the game, so I have nothing to offer, other than it doesn’t look like I missed much. So much for Snell having his best start as a Mariner, though if he was under the weather, we can give him a mulligan. He’ll have to show something pretty soon though, especially if Fister and Vargas pitch well the next couple of days.
Oh, and it appears that the team made three more outs on the bases today. This is becoming a huge problem.