Game Forty Recap
Dave · May 19, 2010 at 9:55 pm · Filed Under Mariners
14-26, 8 1/2 games out. The season will be over in a couple of days if the Mariners don’t start winning in a hurry.
There’s not much else to say. Day game tomorrow, so don’t expect any more roster changes. The Mariners have decided to go to war with this group. It’s Little Bighorn 2.0.
Very funny, the “almost won last night”. But I can’t help correcting…
Anymore, the Ms don’t almost win anything. Either (just looking at the lineup) they are bound to lose…
Or they are in a steady-state of almost losing, and then go and do it.
-We expected Griffey to suck. He’s sucking. So we’re really angry about that.
-We expected other players (Figgins, Kotchman,some members of the bullpen, even Felix for that matter) to be productive. They haven’t. But we’re not angry about that becasue they’ll bounce back? What does it matter if they do? At this point their lack of production has been part of the hole that the M’s have dug themselves into and likely won’t get out of if. Since some people want to continously beat the Griffey/Sweeney horse, I’ll continue to beat this one.
I have a serious question-if certain other players were producing at their expected level, what would the M’s record be?
What a difference a year makes.. So many rotten mistakes, It just does not make sence. Are they wrecking this season on purpose? Is there some monster bat that will be in next years draft. Wak and Z were just to good last year for this year to make sence.. I just do not get it. Did I not hear all last Winter “Griffey and his new Reduced role with the team”. The way Wak and Z are holding there line it feels like its Sabatoge. Blow this ship up already. Is it deeper? Are they making it so bad they can get support to trade Ichiro? sory for the rambling
speedomike – that’s an invalid point. Griffey is the main reason for the losses.
Wak continues to puzzle the folks with old school baseball ideas (ie- me). Last night, the Griffey thing isn’t even a topic I can talk about anymore, but more annoying to me was hitting Tui for Kotchman.
You’ve got a guy who’s been really struggling at the plate who finally puts a couple good at bats together, and how do you reward him? Replace him in a key situation with a minor leaguer.
I’m no engineer (a saying in my family when we’re about to say something painfully obvious) but maybe pinch hitting with a guy hitting .152, and fresh from AAA, in a high leverage at-bat is a marginal idea at best?
Or maybe Kotchman got hurt? Did I miss that?
Speaking of which– in the WORSE news department– both Jack Wilson and Erik Bedard have suffered setbacks in their recoveries. Wilson has tendinitis in his knee and has been sent back to Seattle from West Tennessee for evaluation, and Bedard is suffering stiffness in his injured shoulder, and was shutdown during a recent session.
Woo-hoo!
WTF?!?
In the “everybody can use cheery, uplifting baseball news” department– Stephen Strasburg is 3-0, with a 0.00 ERA in AAA, opponents batting .068 against him (4 hits in 59 at bats). His curveball starts at the batter’s head, and ends up hitting the dirt on the outside of the plate– it’s insane!
Good point, speedomike. I think some of the anger directed at Griffey is unwarranted, based on your first premise. I think very few of us expected Griffey to be more than he was last year, which is why we also bought the idea that he would not be anything close to our everyday DH: I believe the scuttlebutt/conventional wisdom of the preseason was that he would be at most a LH bat off the bench/occasional DH against RHP.
I can only speak for myself: I am irritated, as you are, that the guys who were supposed to productive haven’t been (along with my growing suspicion that Chone Figgins may actually be a double-agent, still on the Angels’ payroll — just kidding, everyone). But I think we all hold out hope that those guys will be productive again: Kotchman is not a great hitter, but he has been the victim of some extraordinary bad luck, with a BABIP below .200; Felix for some reason has May splits that run worse than his career numbers, etc. Back to speaking only for myself, I am not so much angry with Griffey as I am saddened by watching him turn into Willie Mays, c. 1973. I wish he could see what the rest of us do.
Beyond that, I think the frustration with Griffey is also as much about roster construction as it is him. We knew going in that Griffey was going to hold down a roster spot that would provide zero defensive value, but as long as the M’s did something else — added lots of flexibility to the bench otherwise, six-man bullpen, and Griffey could at least be useful as a pinch-hitter, it might all work out. None of those things have happened, and indeed the team has compounded the problem by having someone like Sweeney as well. Having a LH aging player who could no longer play the field meant not being able to go after someone like Jim Thome, who has a lot more left in the tank than Griffey. Some of these problems were unavoidable, like Hannahan going down to injury and limiting Wak’s options, but others are not, and that’s what the team needs to fix. But as long as Griffey hangs on, it complicates every move the team might make to try to salvage what little hope remains of the season.
But yeah, the rest of the guys who should be playing better need to get it together, and fast. You could put Prince Fielder in the middle of this lineup, but he alone could not put the M’s in first place the way most of the lineup outside of Ichiro and Gutierrez have performed.
Anyday now I expect the announcement to be made that Z has fired Wak and replaced him with the ghost of Walter Mathau, we’ve signed a long-haired motorcycle riding 12 year old named Kelly Leak to bat cleanup, and traded Cliff Lee for Tatum O’Neal.
Seriously.
The anger directed at Griffey is unwarranted? Whatever dude..this team would be 26-14 if he were not on the roster.
Just a thought, to be a little vicious:
Maybe we’re all looking at this the wrong way: there’s an opportunity here. If we trade Ichiro, Gutierrez, Cliff Lee, Aardsma, Kelley, Fister, Vargas and Felix for a boatload of prospects who won’t be ready for the bigs until next year, hang on to the rest of the club and fill the holes from Tacoma and West Tenn, we could finally answer definitively that question to which we can only posit approximate answers at the moment:
How many games would a team made up purely of replacement-level players win?
Gar-
That cracked me up. Brilliant idea.
Although, sadly, isn’t the hypothesized team of replacement level player wins number HIGHER than what we’re on pace to do this year (we’re looking at 56 wins with what we’ve posted so far– that’s a scary number)?
This just in: “The Mariners are Garbage”
Kinda grasping at straws here, but is it possible one of the reasons for the hesitation in making significant changes is the ‘way’ we’re losing games?
More than half of our losses are by 2 runs or less. Perhaps someone in the Front Office is thinking “We’re in these games, they’re close games, the roster isn’t *THAT* bad”. Perhaps if we were losing more frequently by larger margins…
Of course, the emphasis on pitching and defense will make it look that way, won’t it? We really needed just about everything to work out well to compete with this roster, and most of them haven’t.
-a different “Nate” than the one who posted last night. and really, he sounded samrter than I so if you pick only one, read his posts.
Everyone: The season is over. What could possibly happen that leads to the M’s winning consistently? I understand everyone wont let the season go because its early. Also, because there was such high expectations for the season, its easy to ignore the reality of the situation: The Mariners are a bad team in 2010.
If we cant compete in the worst division in the league, how can we possibly make the playoffs?
The Mariners being in many close games should be even more reason to dump the dead weight to push them over the top.
I’m disproportionally anxious for Dave’s “FuryFest II”. I think it’s because I officially, emotionally gave up on this season as of last night. Now I can just look at this team as a problem to fix for the future…and the glory of Dave’s fury to burn away the chaffe of the bad decision-making and misplaced reminiscence that is 2010.
I am also, for no good reason, disproportionally (and likely, poorly) poetic this morning.
“I felt dirty booing in a crowd that was giving a standing O (which was hard for me to understand).”
Why is this hard to understand?
Mariners’ administration want a night at Safeco Field to be like a day at Disneyland. And just as no trip to Disneyland is complete without a ride on the Matterhorn, no visit to Safeco is complete without an appearance by Ken Griffey Jr.
Therefore wins and losses are irrelevant. It’s the ballpark “experience” that matters.
Just try and boo a Mariner at Safeco Field. You’ll get loads of dirty looks from indifferent fans.
On another note, if I have to listen to one more of those cornball Dave Niehaus commercials about getting an Ichiro or Griffey foul ball, I may just end it.
“Bemused indifference” – best description Ive heard for how most people I know view the team.
Consider the die-hard nature of fans who would show up in a s**t-storm of wind and rain to watch a losing team be ineptly managed to defeat for the umpteenth time. These are folks who have not only drunk the Kool-Aid but seized control of the factory and are demanding IV drips to deliver more, faster.
Another one run loss. Last year they were amazing in one run games but this year they are horrid. That is the difference between this year and last year. Win back half the games that the M’s have lost in extras or the one run games and you automatically are at .500.
MLB’s Transactions page has Erik Bedard being transferred to the 60-Day disabled list. Is there a chance that we are looking at another roster move?
Or, perhaps one more guy doing well can help a couple other guys relax and think about what they’re doing. The marginal people like Rob aren’t going to hit any better even if they had 8 Ichiros hitting in front of them… but maybe Chone, Casey, even Jose might be hitting better if they weren’t pressing so much. (Witness how much of Chone’s 2010 interviews have all included the word “battling” at one point or another.)
Bounce the Ms back to 1st place? Certainly not. Back to quasi-respectable, and give some room to do the right things with other parts of the roster? Maybe. We’re certainly not “one player away”, but hell, it couldn’t hurt.
The Mariners would be in first place if Griffey was not on the roster. Plain and simple, no one can argue against that.
I can…Wak actually had Colome warming up in the 8th. COLOME?!?!? Argh.
Outside of Junior PH for Wilson (who had a good game) I was actually enjoying the effort I was seeing for once. I may be the only one that wasn’t bothered by Tui hitting for Kotchman solely because it was NOT Rob Johnson and I can see Wak wanted a RH hitter out there.
Junior skying that pitch just pissed me off. Why him and why not Langerhans PH. What got me is that Wilson coming out means Tui moves from 1B to SS had we tied it up and gone to extra innings. WRONG WAK.
Just to be clear, I want the M’s to win as much as anybody, and I’m all for discussion (gag harbor) and passion (jepdhood). But can we leave the whiny complaining at the door? I’m sure it’s cathartic for some people, but it gives the impression of immense immaturity. And frankly it’s not productive.
As much as I’d like to agree, I doubt that solely on the concept that our hitting would still be challenged and our
BPsupposedly defensively adept catcher has been the culprit of many losses so far.This. To agree with Lorenzo I think if Z adds a few parts and gets rid of some dead weight and we start performing, I can at least enjoy the rest of the season while hoping for improvement next year.
No whining from me, just venting.
Am I wrong to think one run wins/losses are a factor of luck as much as anything?
My brain is a little mushy right now, but I believe that was to create room on the 40 man for one of the more recent moves.
This is probably what will happen but I sure wish it wouldn’t. If we as fans are going to endure another season without a shot at the WS at least do it in a way that can be built off of for the future. Rebounding to mediocrity doesn’t help as much as being really bad. If the M’s win around 60 they should be first or second in the draft. If they can deal Lee and a few others for near major league ready talent then next year’s rebound can be to above mediocrity. Ackley in 2012 and other trade chips this season could be used to make the M’s good fairly quickly and for a long time without breaking the bank.
Saunders with 400+ plate appearances in LF this season would give a really clear picture as to if the M’s need to be in the Carl Crawford sweepstakes. That would leave SP, 1b and C as the focus for 2011 off season. Pull the trigger Z, get on the phone and start selling.
Yes, but I thought they didn’t have to move him since we had an extra spot.
I hate to ruin the anticipation for you all, but the same crappy lineup is in order this afternoon.
But, hey. $2 hot dogs at the park!
daveblev,
While I agree that Jr. has no place on this roster, I would love to see the statistics to back this statement up. Furthermore, if it can be proven, you can blame Wak for putting him in such high-leverage situations. I don’t think anyone can honestly say they wouldn’t keep trying to play if they were Jr. in his shoes right now.
UW James, I’m assuming that was sarcasm…
I went to spring training this year and saw the Mariners play 4 games. They lost all 4, the last 3 losses were by 7 runs. They couldn’t hit, they couldn’t pitch, they were ok in the field, but the bullpen was a wreck. I remember feeling my optimism disappear like a leaky balloon.
But, it was only spring training, right? Those games don’t really count! However, it was spring training for the other teams, too, so how come my team looked so bad?
So here we are at the 1/4 pole after today. There is only one team in the majors with a worse record. They have had one really good home stand where they went 7-2. Take that home stand away, and the Mariners are 7-24.
I saw it in spring training….this isn’t a good team, no matter how good the starters are. They will struggle to win 70 games.
As the bear said to the hunter, “You’re not really here for the hunting, are you?”
Why not call up Peguero, Ackley or Everidge??
Only to test, because Sweeney, Griffey and Tui sure doesnt play well.
Peguero had power and he´s 23 , Ackley had potential and Everidge its a superstar in AAA
Call up Ackley already? Seriously? Do you not know baseball at all?
Griffey is to blame for everything, and for all losses! If he retired the M’s would be in 1st place by 8.5 games not behind by that many. I think we can pin him with the Kennedy assassination and 9/11 too. I guess when you advocate defense, defense and more defense you should maybe have 1 or 2 guys that you can count on to hit some HR’s once in awhile. Maybe Cliff Lee can finally get us some much needed bats, but by then it wont matter. I dont care how bad people thought Branyon was he still hit 31 Homeruns, and we are sorely missing any kind of real power from this team. Defense is Great for Safeco, but they still need guys that can hit with power enough said. How many 2-1, 4-1 type games have the M’s already lost this season??
Yes, but…
Figure that a team’s Runs Scored for a game will be a bell-shaped curve centered around (their average offensive ability + opponents average defesive/Pitching ability ) / 2, and their Runs Against another bell-shaped curve centered around the reverse*.
Luck determines where on each bell curve you end up for any particular game, and since most teams are within 1 run average of each other (example: Tex vs Oak, R/RA is 4.7/4.5 for Tex and 4.0/4.4 for Oak, so figure the curves center around 4.55 runs for Tex and and 4.25 for Oak) then who wins a 1 run game is largely a matter of luck becaue both teams are in roughly the same part of their respective bell curves. Small variations in luck produce bigger results near the center of a bell curve than they do at the edges.
But if the M’s are playing the Rays, it’s a little different. R/RA for those two teams are 5.4/3.1 for the Rays and 3.3/4.0 for the M’s, so figure the bell curves center on 4.7 for the Rays and 3.2 for the M’s. A 1 run game between those two with the M’s losing means the M’s were already significantly more lucky than the Rays just to get that close (farther to the right in their bellcurve) so the amount of extra luck needed to make up that run is greater than it is for Oak vs Tex.
Shorter version: the M’s are already getting lucky when they lose by just one run.
* – the left-hand sides truncated at 0 of course.
I hate this team but I can’t help but love it.
Fun fact: the 2010 Mariners have a WORSE record after 40 games than the 2008 Mariners.
Fun Fact #2: If you pound toothpicks underneath your fingernails, all the way in, it’s incredibly painful. (See: 2008, 2010 Mariners)
Randy Ruiz was just cut by the Blue Jays. Is it just me, or wouldn’t he make a great DH/platoon 1B for the low low price of free…