Milton Implosion #1
We knew this was part of the deal when the Mariners traded for Milton Bradley. He is who he is. And, so now, we have our first Milton Bradley Situation. Per Mike Salk:
According to a source, Bradley yelled at the umpire from the bench before being told by Don Wakamatsu to cool it. Wakamatsu said that he would handle the umpire himself. Bradley responded that someone had to say something and that if Wak wouldn’t, then he would.
According to the source, a few minutes later Bradley walked back over to the skipper and said, “I’m packing my stuff. I’m out of here.” And then he left.Mariners General Manager Jack Zduriencik said Bradley is still a member of the team. “Milton is part of what we’re doing,” he told me this morning. “Anything that happens between a manager and his players should be handled internally. Sometimes tempers flare over the course of a season. Wakamatsu thought it was time for Milton to come out.”
I really doubt Milton is in the line-up tonight.
Prospect Pitching Performance of the Year to Date
RHP Michael Pineda, last night at Huntsville:
7.0 IP, 4 H, 11/1 K/BB, 2/6 G/F, eleven of last twelve retired in order
The Huntsville offense ranks fourth in the league right now in OPS, walks drawn, runs, and RBI. Pineda tore them apart.
Be cautiously exuberant.
Game Twenty-Six Recap
Boo, 11-15.
Let’s start with the one caveat – James Shields is really good. He was my preseason pick for the AL Cy Young award this year, so he’s not some random shlub. Even good offenses don’t do much against him, and well, the Mariners don’t have a good offense.
What are we going to say about the offense? The big move to shake up the line-up was flip-flopping Bradley and Lopez so that Milton was back in the cleanup spot, which was the right call. He rewarded Wak with some really bad at-bats, staring at pitches in the strike zone. Pitch selection is only swinging at hittable pitches, not standing there with the bat on your shoulder and letting the ump ring you up on anything that isn’t right down the middle. He was pulled after his third at-bat, in which he left the bases loaded, and I can’t imagine Wak was very happy with Milton’s performance. His second stint as the cleanup guy might not last much longer than the first.
Can’t lay all the blame on Bradley, of course. Junior looked as hopeless as ever, and really, asking him to hit a guy like James Shields at this point in his career is just remarkably unfair. You don’t invite your friends over to watch your grandfather wrestle a brown bear. This is the baseball version of that. Griffey isn’t a major league player anymore, and he’s going to be continually embarrassed by pitchers of Shields’ quality.
The offense wasn’t the only thing that blew, as the defense was uncharacteristically terrible. Jack Wilson made three ridiculous errors, Figgins added another official one and could have been given a second on a dropped pickoff, Kotchman put a guy on base with a bad throw after a nice dive, and Adam Moore tossed in another passed ball for good measure. The team was only charged with four official errors, but they made seven or eight mistakes in the field, and generally looked like a team that just couldn’t play the game.
In more positive news, let’s talk about the only good thing the M’s had going tonight – Jason Vargas. If you’re not on his bandwagon yet, I don’t know what else you need to be convinced. Going against a really good line-up, he racked up a career high eight strikeouts, constantly fooling Rays hitters with his fastball/change-up combination. He gave up a home run to Evan Longoria, but other than that, he was brilliant, despite the ridiculous lack of support he was getting from his infielders. He may have only pitched 6 2/3 innings, but when you factor in the outs that Wilson and Figgins cost him, he basically threw eight innings of brilliant baseball. I know everyone’s in love with Doug Fister right now, but of the two, Vargas is the one who I’d bet on sustaining his success all year.
Of course, once Vargas came out (and we were treated to a random Brandon League appearance), we got to see the prize of the seven man bullpen and the reason Shawn Kelley is back in Tacoma – Jesus Colome. You know, the guy who is so good that there’s no chance he’d clear waivers, despite the fact that he’s been outright released by different organizations in his career. Colome continued to show the same “skillset” he’s always had – no command of his fastball, no outpitch, and living evidence that throwing 95 doesn’t make you a major league pitcher. Supposedly, the M’s coaching staff thinks they fixed him in spring training, but there’s no reason to believe that – he still sucks, just like he always has, and there’s no reason for him to be on this team.
But hey, Cliff Lee tomorrow, and the M’s only have to figure out how to score runs off Matt Garza. I’m sure that won’t be hard.
Game 26, Rays at Mariners
Shields vs Vargas, 7:10 pm.
The kinda sorta new look Mariners take the field against one of the best teams in baseball for the next three days. Will be interesting to see how they handle going up against a legitimate beast for the first time this year. They begin their three-lefties-in-a-row series with Jason Vargas tonight, who will try to hold a good Rays line-up in check. Good luck, Jason – you may need it.
Two line-up changes tonight, as Milton Bradley finally reclaims the cleanup spot, while Jose Lopez drops to 6th against a right-hander, and Jack Wilson hits 8th for the first time all year, with Adam Moore moving down to the #9 hole. Griffey still DH’ing, hitting 5th, Kotchman still hitting 7th. Yup.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Gutierrez, CF
Bradley, LF
Griffey, DH
Lopez, 2B
Kotchman, 1B
Wilson, SS
Moore, C
Radio Spot
I’m going to be on with the guys from ESPN Radio 1080 in Portland at 4:05 pm. Tune in if you’re down there or listen live here, though I’ve also been told it’s simulcast in Seattle on Comcast Sportsnet, so whatever that is, if you have that, you can use that too.
The Bullpen’s Dirty Secret
When the M’s traded for Brandon League to bolster their bullpen, most of us saw a end-game foursome of David Aardsma, League, Mark Lowe, and Shawn Kelley and penciled the relievers in as one of the team’s strengths for 2010. And, I think the perception is still there that the bullpen is one area where the Mariners have an advantage over their opponents. The problem – given how the bullpen has shaken out, it’s not really true anymore. Two reasons:
1. Mark Lowe, setup man.
Instead of mixing and matching the League/Lowe/Kelley trio based on how often they had pitched and the opposing hitters due up, Wak opted to give Lowe the 8th inning job and relegate League to middle relief. This is despite the fact that League is demonstrably better, and better suited to a “fixed inning” role. As we’ve talked about before, Lowe is something of a glorified right-handed specialist.
His career FIP against RHBs is 2.80, but its 5.62 against LHBs, and he’s shown a huge BABIP platoon split as well (.286 vs RHB, .355 vs LHB), exacerbating the issue even further. His problems with lefties are not subtle – they have hit .298/.382/.514 against him in his career, and this year is no different. His fastball/slider combination is effective against righties, but do nothing to fool left-handed batters, and he’s basically abandoned his change-up at this point in his career, so he doesn’t really have anything to throw opposite handed hitters.
This creates some high leverage problems when he’s called upon to give an innings worth of work, which usually requires him to get a lefty or two out. We saw this in the 11th inning on Sunday. He gave up a single to left-handed hitting Julio Borbon to start the rally, and then once Elvis Andrus reached on a bunt, he was able to get right-handed hitting Michael Young to strikeout, but then had to face back-to-back lefties in David Murphy and Josh Hamilton. A deep sac fly and a single later and the game was basically over, as Lowe’s inability to get LHBs out (combined with Rob Johnson’s inability to catch) gave the Rangers a couple of runs.
Lowe has his uses, but he’s not good enough to be handed a strict role and allowed to pitch no matter who is due up. He needs to be selectively used to face mostly right-handed hitters, and the team can’t rely on him to get tough lefties out in critical situations. And yet, as the anointed setup man, that’s what they’re going to ask him to do.
2. Shawn Kelley is no longer on the team.
Because the team decided to go with a seven man bullpen, Kelley hadn’t gotten regular work (a sign that the team didn’t need seven relievers in the first place), and since he had an option left, the Mariners shipped him to Tacoma when Lee returned. The problem, though, is that Kelley is the team’s third best relief pitcher, behind Aardsma and League. His ability to get both lefties and righties out, while pounding the strike zone, make him more valuable than Lowe, even if the stuff isn’t as visually impressive.
On a team without a left-handed reliever, Kelley is a pivotal guy, because he’s the only guy in that bullpen besides Brandon League and David Aardsma who has a demonstrated ability to get good left-handed hitters out. Wak’s obviously not going to bring Aardsma in to get a lefty out in a high leverage situation in the 7th or 8th, so if League has already pitched or is not available, the M’s don’t have any other good options, so they are stuck with Lowe or Sean White. Those guys are below replacement level against left-handed hitters. That’s a bad situation for the M’s.
Right now, with the Mariner bullpen being structured as it is, it’s not a strength anymore. The closer is good, not great, with obvious strengths and weaknesses. They have one really good setup guy, but he’s being used in middle relief. There’s a good right-handed specialist in the 8th inning role, a three guys who are basically replacement level in White/Texeira/Colome, and then a starter-turned-mopup guy in Ian Snell.
It’s getting overlooked because of the offensive problems the team has experienced, but this isn’t a great bullpen, and the Mariners are going to play too many close games to give away wins by keeping it like it is. The team needs to bring Shawn Kelley back, let him and Lowe share the 7th inning duties (depending on handedness of opposing hitters), and make League the setup guy to Aardsma. At that point, they’d have a good bullpen again.
This current group – it’s not so hot.
Don’t Count On Seeing Hannahan Again
Heading into spring training, it looked like Jack Hannahan was going to be the team’s utility infielder, playing a couple of times per week and offering the team some decent depth in case one of the regulars needed a day off. Then, he pulled his groin. He missed all of spring training, and then got sent out on a rehab stint with Tacoma. At the the time it started, Wak said they’d like to get Hannahan about 50 at-bats before they brought him back.
Well, he’s got nearly 50 at-bats, and there’s no indication that he’ll be rejoining the Mariners this week, or any week in the near future. In fact, Jack Hannahan may not be in the team’s plans anymore.
The smoking gun here is the Josh Wilson promotion. They would not go to the hassle of putting him on the 40 man roster, then risk having to pass him back through waivers to just fill in as the utility infielder until Hannahan reached the 50 AB mark. The decision to call Wilson up from Tacoma after Sunday’s game means that he’s here for a non-trivial amount of time. They’re not swapping out Hannahan for Wilson.
So, the only other path back to the roster for Jack Hannahan is by taking the roster spot of Ken Griffey Jr (not happening) or Mike Sweeney. While this would improve the team, they’d still lack a first baseman who can give Kotchman a day off against tough lefties or a right-handed bat to pair with Bradley at either LF/DH against LHPs. In reality, given the current roster, the guy who replaces Sweeney on the roster should probably be a right-handed hitting OF/1B/DH type. And that, obviously, is not Hannahan.
The other indication that the team isn’t planning on bringing him back has been his usage down in Tacoma. He’s played in 11 games, starting nine at 3rd base and two at DH. They have made no attempt to groom him as a utility infielder, and even with Wilson promoted on Sunday, he was back at third base last night, with Chris Woodward getting the start at shortstop.
Barring an injury to Figgins or Lopez, I don’t think we’re going to see Hannahan back with the Mariners any time soon. The rehab portion of his assignment is, for all intents and purposes, over – now, he’s just been demoted back to being a Triple-A guy again.
Rainiers Game Thread
No Mariner game tonight, so we direct your attention to the Tacoma Rainiers instead. In fact, the R’s are even on TV tonight, as FSN is broadcasting the game as part of their deal with the Portland Beavers. That said, if you choose to watch the game, you should do it with the sound off, and tune into the great Mike Curto on 850 AM. Also, you should be reading his blog, which is full of good, interesting information, plus a side of Curto-humor.
Line-up for Tacoma:
Saunders, RF
Tui, LF
Hannahan, 3B
Everidge, DH
Carp, 1B
Alfonso, C
Vazquez, 2B
Woodward, SS
Carrera, CF
Chris Seddon starts for the Rainiers against Cesar Carillo. The Portland line-up isn’t that interesting – local kid Aaron Cunningham is the best prospect on that team.
On the Value of Flexibility to a Marginal Contender
A couple of commenters on recent posts have brought up a common refrain among Ms’ fans these days: that the team’s biggest need is a big bat, and that until they acquire one nobody should waste any time worrying about incremental improvements to the 24th or 25th spots on the roster.
Obviously, the Mariners’ offense has not been very good. Nobody will seriously argue that there aren’t many different positions at which the Mariners could conceivably get better. If the right player came along, and the asking price was right, I have no doubt that the powers that be would love to add another solidly above average bat to improve the team’s .290 wOBA. That underlying point is obvious to the point of being pretty much not worth mentioning.
The specific point conveyed by these comments, though, simply could not be more wrong. After watching the Texas series, this should be abundantly obvious.
A team built around run prevention that struggles to score runs absolutely must worry about the flexibility the last few roster spots give them. Far, far more than a team with a good offense, in fact. A team like the Yankees will routinely run away with games. In contrast, 9 of the Mariners’ 11 wins this season have been by 3 runs or fewer (7 of them by either 1 or 2 runs). With strong pitching, great defense, and a mediocre at best offense, this team will see more close games than pretty much any other team in baseball with a shot at contention.
The team’s weak offense makes optimizing its bench more important. Not less.
Why The Roster Isn’t Fixed Yet
While we applaud the Mariners for making two correct decisions yesterday, and while they have improved the roster with the additions of Ryan Lagnerhans and Josh Wilson, the roster is not yet fixed.
Right now, the Mariners have the following line-up options, based on the current roster (leaving aside catchers, because that’s an entirely separate issue).
Vs RHP:
OF: Ichiro, Gutierrez, Langerhans
IF: Kotchman, Figgins, Wilson, Lopez
DH: Bradley
Bench: Griffey, Sweeney, Wilson
or
OF: Ichiro, Gutierrez, Bradley
If: Kotchman, Figgins, Wilson, Lopez
DH: Griffey
Bench: Sweeney, Langerhans, Wilson
I think most of us would prefer option A, as it gets Bradley out of the field (and hopefully keeps his bat in the line-up more often), improves the defense, and relegates Junior to a reduced pinch-hitting role. However, there’s a pretty big problem with that alignment – Josh Wilson acts as the only backup for the other seven guys, because the other two bench dudes can’t play the field. And that’s being kind enough to assume that Josh Wilson can serve as the fourth outfielder, despite the fact that he’s played one game in the outfield in his entire professional career.
Yes, the team can now safely pinch hit for Jack Wilson since they have a guy who can play shortstop to replace him after he’s removed, but that’s the only strategic move you can make. Want to pinch run? Tough, can’t do it. Want to pinch hit for Langerhans when the opposing manager brings in a southpaw in a high leverage situation? Nope, there’s no one else to play left field. While the team’s best line-up now includes Langerhans in left and Bradley at DH, that scenario also creates a remarkably inflexible bench that allows Wak to make one substitution per game. If any of the starters get a minor injury that force them into a day-to-day situation, the team literally would not have a backup for anyone else.
That’s the cost of carrying 12 pitchers and two guys who can’t play the field. An MLB team cannot operate like this without being severely hamstrung in every close, late game situation. We’ve already seen these problems rear their head, with things like Eric Byrnes facing a tough RHP in ridiculously high leverage situations, and last night’s moves don’t address the issue. If the team goes forward with this roster, they essentially will have to choose between keeping Griffey as the regular DH against righies, or not having a usable bench. That’s not a choice they should have to make.
If we accept the fact that Griffey isn’t going anywhere (and we have to – it’s just reality), then the Mariners simply have to choose between Mike Sweeney and the seven man bullpen. They cannot have both. No one can realistically expect the M’s to be able to make the necessary late game moves while they are hamstrung with a bullpen spot they don’t use and two DH’s who can’t hit.
Since Wak is apparently dead set against going back to six relievers, that makes Sweeney the odd man out. You cannot make this roster work with him on it and a 12 man pitching staff. We’ll find out tomorrow if the Mariners are willing to make that call, but I don’t get the sense that they are. I have a feeling that, tomorrow, the Mariners will take the field with a still-broken roster. It’s improved, but it still doesn’t work.
Jettisoning Byrnes and Tuiasosopo was the right start, but there’s one more move to be made. The team has about 30 hours to make it. Let’s see if they’re willing to admit that this roster is still broken.