First Round of ’10 Draft, Today
This isn’t nearly as exciting as last year, but I could say that and it could apply to a lot of different things at this point. As you may know, the MLB draft is starting up at 4 pm PDT today, 7 pm EDT, and the teams will make their first and supplemental first round selections and then call it quits until 9 am tomorrow, when they’ll go through round thirty. The Mariners will pick 43rd out of 50 when we get to that point.
After they make that pick, we might have a lot to say about who’s still on the board and where the team might go from here. Until we get there, we’ll have the usual exclamations of “I never expected (player) to go to (team) at (slot)!”, of both the good and bad variety, local product Josh Sale will come off the board, the Yankees and possibly the Red Sox will buy a promising but unpolished prep player out of his college commitment, and the Astros might do something stupid (they’re attached to Sale’s name at the moment, which is decidedly not stupid).
I’ve heard two names attached to the M’s so far, which is surprising given their usually clandestine dealings and how silly it is to project that far out. One of them is another sort of local guy in Langley B.C. catcher Kellin Deglan, who turned eighteen four days ago and I think went to the same high school as former farmhand Tyson Gillies. Deglan hits from the left side and has a good amount of raw power, though given the background, you can emphasize the rawness. He’s also regarded as a guy who’s nearly certain to stay behind the plate, as he has good pop times and his athleticism and arm strength are much praised. Baseball America has mentioned that Deglan worked out with Twins star and fellow Canadian Justin Morneau in the offseason, and his stock is definitely on the rise, but for those of you hoping to uproot Johnson or Moore from behind the plate, he’s more of a long-term option and would almost certainly take a few years to get going.
YouTube:
Baseball Factory TV, Deglan at Under Armour All-America, Aug. 2009
Baseball America, Deglan hitting at Wood Bat Championships, Oct. 2009
The other name that has come up a few times in the local and national media is Utah prep shortstop Marcus Littlewood. ESPN’s Keith Law claimed that the M’s were expected to take Littlewood with their first pick, which prompted a write-up from Larry Stone earlier in the week. The exact opinion you’ll get on him will vary depending on who it is you’re talking to. Some say that his stock is on the rise, that he possesses some of the best hands in the draft, that he’s a real gamer and a baseball kid through and through, and that he’ll hit at least fifteen home runs as a pro and is likely to stay at short. Others look at him and see the slow footspeed and less than ideal reactions and see him as a defensive-minded third baseman, without the rocket arm or the power to justify staying on. Any team that picks him up would have to be pretty confident in their ability to either get him to stick it out at short, hit for power, or both.
YouTube:
Hitting, 2009 WWBA World Championship
Fielding, 2009 WWBA World Championship
Right-handed at-bat, 2009 Tournament of Stars
Left-handed at-bat, 2009 AFLAC All-American Game
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The Mariners have no pick in the first round (Figgins), and one pick in the supplemental (Beltre), right?
Is that what you mean by 43rd out of 50?
So why would we take a C when we have Stephen Baron who we just drafted last year and we have Adam Moore behind the plate? I guess in the MLB draft you go BPA but why not take a high upside arm or a raw bat?
I’d like to see the Mariners draft Danielle Lawrie. With our line-up, we could use her bat.
Catchers fail to develop / stick at the position so frequently, especially in this organization, that it would be only a slight over-reaction to pick one in every draft.
But at #43 we’re getting a bit far away from the easy “consensus”; so I’m betting that when Jay gives us a great summary of the guy the M’s picked, it will be none of the above.
And she has that “leadership” thing going for her too. I bet she could underhand throws from 3rd to 1st to beat out runners. And hit better than Lopez.
Shanfan – or trade for her brother (who has some pop and patience).
GoldenGutz – I think this would be an example of not putting all your eggs in one basket. Baron isn’t exactly tearing it up so far (nor is Moore at the MLB level), and so much can happen between HS and when a kid like this might be able to make it to MLB. The plan to take the highest player left on the M’s board at 43, regardless of position or need, seems like a good one to me.
Of the two kids discussed here, personally I’d rather see the M’s take the catcher.
On Josh Sale, here’s the take of local scout and Baseball Northwest guru Jeff McKay. I’ve seen this kid play a few times myself, and I think McKay pretty well nails it. While he’s definitely a legit top three round talent, personally I think first round may be a stretch for Sale. He definitely has power and patience, but there are some holes in his swing (can he plug them?) and he certainly isn’t going to impress much defensively. If he’s a DH type, that doesn’t bode well for a NL team considering him. He’s a corner outfielder, at best. I hope I am wrong – I love to see the local kids succeed, and by all accounts of those who know him, this is a great kid.
Ackley is hitting .483 with an OBP of .628 in the last 10 games, and is hitting .337 in the last 30 games. For the season Ackley is hitting .189 against lefties and .281 against righties, while Figgins is hitting .318 against lefties and .172 against righties. Platoon? Please?… Something to make me watch.
Not to mention, she’d be less of a gas can out of the bullpen than half the guys that are there at the moment.
Wow, you’re not kidding about Marcus Littlewood and his slow feet.
I’m hoping for Littlewood, when it’s all said and done. I heart switch-hitters and we don’t have many in the org with promise. Only Nick Franklin, Shaver Hansen and Efrain Nunez, that I can remember.
And all three are just beginning their careers, so who knows what you have there?
I could see Gibbs here, too (another switch-hitter). I know the argument that you don’t wanna select catcher in the first round for the message it’ll send to youthful incumbents like Moore and Johnson.
To which I’d say: Tough noogies. This org needs talent, and if the best player at #43 is a catcher from LSU, so be it.
Life in the big leagues is knowing that there’s a zillion guys that want your job…and are working like dogs to get it.
That means you’re on notice 24/7 as far as productivity goes, and always looking over your shoulder.
If a player can’t take that as part of the deal?
Well….
I’d rather see Gibbs behind our dish than Rob Johnson, anyway. I have more regard for Moore and his future.
Correct. From the second round out, the M’s will be picking seventeenth every round.
Baron isn’t hitting, for one thing. I also get the impression that the new organization is going to put a greater emphasis on catcher defense, which means that we’re unlikely to see the old tradition of drafting a hitter and praying that they can be competent enough to stay behind the plate.
Whoever the M’s pick, they’ll be telling us they picked the BPA. Given earlier precedents, I don’t think that’s going to be prep pitcher. We’ll see, I guess.
That gets me to my input on Littlewood, as a segue. With the opinions on him and his abilities/ceiling pretty mixed, it seems like any team taking him would be betting on the 90th percentile of what he’s capable of. That’s something you can get away with when you have multiple picks high up, not so much when you have one pick in the top fifty and fairly late at that.
One reason I like baseball more than football is that I didn’t hear until yesterday that the draft is to occur today. The NFL draft, on the other hand, is a constant, year-round discussion for some folks. Fie on them.
Funny how, in other sports, draft day gets treated as a footnote — whereas in the NFL, it’s considered such an epic groundbreaking event that the sports media feels it necessary to shove it down your throat for two days whether you’re a rabid fan or not. >:(
You’re right about that, scott19…the NFL draft is just PERVASIVE about their draft, to the point of ridiculous. You get the idea that Apollo and Hermes and other demi-gods could slip into the second round (where YOUR team is!)…
My brother and I both qualify as draftniks and football fanatics- albeit more baseball guys than football.
But I have some friends who don’t follow football at all…and some of them could even offer up stuff like “I hope the Hawks don’t draft Mays. For all that athletic ability, he doesn’t have instincts or pure tackling skills”.
“Geoff, you’ve never watched a USC football game. HOW do you know that?!”
“I dunno…I guess I just picked it up from somewhere…”
Three hours and some change to go before the MLB draft starts. I’m all geeked enough, methinks.
Go, M’s!
Littlewood. Think Littlewood. Jim Thome could never run, either.
It is depressing to think that the Angels have 5 picks and the Rangers have 4 picks before the M’s pick.
Thome, also a shortstop coming out of high school, but I’d need to look at pictures of the two around the same stage of development before deciding that comparison isn’t insane. No disrespect.
Well the farm is lacking talent at every position. The 25-man roster is pretty much riddled with holes. So ANY good pospect regardless of position will be beneficial. I believe they should take the most talented player available, with no regard to position.
If the M’s fail to sign their 43rd pick do they get a comp pick next year?
Oh, no, Jay. Might well have come out looking like a bad comparison. But that was strictly a “if a guy can hit enough, don’t care about running” reference.
The two are QUITE different players, and I’d be one step in the looney-bin to call Thome as Littlewood’s ceiling!
For a real ballplayer comparison, I’d think maybe Wilson Betemit is the closest (if I remember right, Betemit had athleticism but was never a plus runner…even as a kid)?
No comp picks for comp picks.
Good, good, was worried for a second there. Of course, now I’m wondering why you’re excited if Betemit is your comp.
So they will probably draft someone with ‘signability’ at 43 since they can’t get compensation next season for an unsigned comp pick.
Signability doesn’t mean overdraft though.
Possibly, spanky. But I think the finances aren’t going to dictate as much of what they did as what they did at picks #27 and #33 last year (teeth gnashing, must stop).
They don’t have multi-millions going to such a high pick this year, like they did in Ackley last year.
So I think they’re going to go “BPA”, all the way. And if he’s a difficult sign, they have the budget to work something out.
I think this draft will be like night and day compared to 2009’s.
Draft Micah Gibbs please. Switch hitting catcher with above average defense, solid bat, and incredible leadership skills.
Nah, I think Littlewood will prove to be a better pro prospect. I like Littlewood’s swing a lot better- from BOTH sides of the plate. But there WAS a time when the Braves were extremely high on Betemit. He just didn’t prove to be all that good.
FWTW Overhyping the NFL draft originally was ESPN’s idea. They said to the league, “We want to televise your annual draft.” The league’s reaction was, “You want do WHAT?” The NFL didn’t see the potential at first, they had to be sold on it.
FWTW Overhyping the NFL draft originally was ESPN’s idea. They said to the league, “We want to televise your annual draft.” The league’s reaction was, “You want to do WHAT?” The NFL didn’t see the potential at first, they had to be sold on it.
Personally I hope the Mariners wait and see if someone falls due to contract demands and sign him. A legit first rounder in the supplemental round would be awesome.
Jay any chance the M’s take a chance on a guy like Austin Wilson and try to convince him Seattle is better then Stanford?
No one knows what’s going on with Wilson right now, but one thing possibly going in the M’s favor is that they’ve made commitments in the past to fund a prep player’s education once they finally retire from baseball, Steve Baron just being the latest example. That said, I think that he might be off the board by then.
I’m going to use this thread as a catch-all for reactions, since there’s no real point in starting a new one. I’ll be liveblogging it at my place, which promises to be a blend of thoughtful analysis and aggravating punning. I’ll be back to analyze the pick here after it happens.
Gee, thanks a lot for that, ESPN.
I’m not an NFL “hater” at all, but would probably consider myself more of a casual-to-intermediate fan (i.e. one who watches the ‘Hawks if I’m home when the game’s on and watches the post-season). However, I do get a bit annoyed at the overhype of the NFL’s draft day…especially when it comes at a time of the year when two major sports (baseball and soccer) are starting their seasons, two others (basketball and hockey) are into their playoff rounds — and yet all you seem to hear about during that three-day stretch from the sports media (particularly from some of the idiots who do sports radio) is the freaking NFL draft.
I understand that rabid NFL fans who treat the game as if it’s a religion and follow no other sport but the NFL get bored and restless at that time of the year…and I guess the big networks feel they have to placate that crowd somehow. However, I could also see where such a media-saturated overkill of an event which does not involve actual live games, but rather, who *might* wind up on this one or that one’s rosters could actually serve to drive the casual fan away.
And, strangely enough, I’ve known religious NFL fans who constantly complain about how “long and boring” MLB’s season is — while, at the same time, the sports media has gone out of its way to ensure that the NFL (with the shortest official schedule of any major sport) no longer has a “off-season.”
Well, I have no interest in the NFL but I can understand why the draft would be a bigger deal there than in the MLB. The players drafted this year can have an impact — sometimes a season-changing impact — on the team in the year they are drafted. What’s more, the fans may have been following those players for several years, watching them weekly in (the infinitely more entertaining, IMO) college football, or at least have a pretty good idea of who they are. With the possible exception of rookie quarterbacks, these guys aren’t going to disappear into a farm system or be toiling in obscurity for years after the draft: as a fan you mostly know what you’re getting and you mostly see it on the field right away. For a country that has less and less patience for any kind of delayed gratification, the NFL draft delivers exactly the kind of quick-fix satisfaction the fans demand. For them, the MLB draft is like learning an instrument and working small gigs on the way to being a rock star; the NFL draft is like playing “Rock Band.”
Just heard the M’s take Littlewood with the 67th pick….