The 2011 Mariners
2010 is in the books at this point. Yes, miracles can happen, and the team theoretically could rip off 65 wins and steal the division title by a hair, but you can’t make decisions based on the expectation of a miracle, and the Mariners have some decisions to make. When a season is a lost cause, the silver lining is the chance to take a look at some guys who wouldn’t get a real shot when a team was trying to win. You can start to look at your roster with an eye towards the following year and try to figure out what you have and what you need. So let’s do just that.
2011 Salary Obligatoins, via Cot’s Contracts:
C: Moore/Johnson – Needs Upgrade.
1B: Carp – Needs Upgrade
2B: Figgins/Ackley – No Move Necessary
SS: Wilson/Wilson – Question Mark
3B: Lopez/Figgins – Question Mark
LF: Saunders – Question Mark
CF: Gutierrez – No Move Necessary
RF: Ichiro – No Move Necessary
DH: Bradley – Question Mark
Bench: Empty – Needs Upgrade
#1: Felix Hernandez – No Move Necessary
#2: Empty – Needs Upgrade
#3: Empty – Needs Upgrade
#4: Doug Fister – No Move Necessary
#5: Jason Vargas – No Move Necessary
CL: David Aardsma – Question Mark
Setup: Brandon League – No Move Necessary
Setup: Shawn Kelley – No Move Necessary
Setup: Mark Lowe – Question Mark
Middle: Ryan Rowland-Smith – Question Mark
Middle: Empty – Question Mark
Long: Luke French – No Move Necessary
Out of 25 roster spots, we’re not even able to label 10 of them as positions that the club doesn’t need to worry about filling. That’s not good, especially considering that the team is not going to have much money to spend this winter. Current obligations for 2010 come to just under $70 million, and that doesn’t include salaries for any of the arbitration eligible guys the team will want back – most notably, Jason Vargas, David Aardsma, Brandon League, Mark Lowe, and Ryan Rowland-Smith. Based on expected raises, you have to pencil that group in for somewhere around $10 million.
That gives the team an $80 million payroll before they go shopping. We have to assume the budget will be in the low $90 millions again next year, giving the team just over $10 million to spend. That doesn’t go very far when you need two starting pitchers, a starting first baseman, a catcher who can play at least half the time, a whole new bench, possibly a designated hitter, and maybe another arm in the bullpen.
Jack Zduriencik is not going to be able to go out and fix all of this team’s problems in free agency. He might not be able to fix any of them in free agency. This team is going to have to make some shrewd trades and get production from low salary guys. There aren’t many in the high minors ready to step in and contribute, so they’re going to have to be acquired from other sources. And that’s where the rest of this season can give the Mariners a leg up.
There are quite a few players kicking around Triple-A who could potentially help the Mariners next year, but need a shot to show what they can do in the big leagues. The Mariners now have approximately four months to give those guys an audition. The longer they wait, hoping for a miracle, the less time they have to find guys who can stake a claim on next year’s roster. That’s why they shouldn’t sit around and wait until July 31st before they start making moves.
Call the Royals about Kila Ka’aihue (26-year-old 1B/DH hitting .326/.503/.617 in Triple-A), and try to pry away Alex Gordon while you’re at it. See if you can get Trevor Plouffe from Minnesota or Tyler Greene from St. Louis to offer another young, cheap option at shortstop. Give Chris Resop a shot to show what he can do on the mound. These are the kinds of players the team will need production from in 2011, and they don’t have enough good internal options to give the kids from Tacoma a shot. Mike Carp is not good enough to be this team’s first baseman next year – not if they want to try to win. Garrett Olson isn’t going to fill one of the holes in the rotation. These guys are serviceable role players at best, and this is a roster that needs more than that.
The organization has a lot of work to do if they want to be a contender next year. They can’t wait until the off-season to go to work. They should start tomorrow. 2010 is officially over, and the team is now playing for 2011.
Ichiro’s value so far in 2010 has been worth $8.1 million in salary, about what he is being paid. How is this a problem? The team only has 23 wins and he has been responsible for two by himself. Look at the value tables on Fangraphs.
Accordint to COTS, Ichiro is $18 mill this year….how is $8.1 and $18 about the same?
Bermanator: I like it! I have long thought that Tampa was a potential suitor for Lee – with a potential ++ return for the Mariners. Good input, logic and supporting detail for your opinion. I would rather see Lee go to Tampa for no other reason than to see him stick it up the Yankees ass on the way to or within the Playoffs.
I think that it’s quite possible that we, here at USSM, will be unhappy with whatever the team might choose to do with Cliff Lee.
I just have this feeling that trading Cliff won’t provide the obvious solutions to all of this teams problems nor will it give us a bunch of all-stars who can pay immediate dividends…and people here will argue that we should have kept him for picks.
And if we kept him for the picks we’d get since he’s likely to opt for free agency for next year, we probably won’t be able to draft a bunch of studs who can play in the majors quickly enough to prevent us from arguing that we should have traded him at the deadline.
I still think that Z’s got a smart head on his shoulders and will make the best deals possible. Maybe not the best deals that we THINK he can make, but the best deals he can actually make…
But I see another rough year next year…and it’ll be tougher and tougher not to seem negative about everything.
The season isn’t over. That’s how it’s about the same. Ichiro has been worth that in 60 games. He still has 102 more games to earn the other $9.9m.
It could be worse. We could still have the “prospects” that we traded for Cliff Lee and had nobody to trade worth trading at the deadline. We also did get to see Cliff Lee in a Mariner uniform completely dominate opposing teams. The M’s record would probably be worse without Lee every fifth day. I also wish the M’s had sold high on Lopez, Lowe, and Aardsma last year. I am also mad that the M’s continue to throw money at Bedard.
Good points pgreyy … and thank you for adding some additional “balance” to the discussion. I do think everyone is trying to provide as much balance as they can within the confines of attempting to sort out and get over the misery that this season has already caused – while looking forward to the future.
In fact, the Mariners need Lee. They should make him an offer he “can’t refuse,” but that doesn’t mean he will indeed accept the offer. They are better off with him than without him. Since that doesn’t appear to be a likely outcome, you are right … there will be a never ending sea of doubt in regard to what the best move should have been in comparison to whatever move the FO does actually end up making.
The team needs many, many things and bringing FA’s to Seattle is not the easiest sell (for hitters particularly), but in light of recent events and team performance, it is not going to get any easier. Building through the draft and an occasional trade (if you can find a willing trade partner) is maybe as good as it is going to get. Overpaying for FA busts has been done to death and the FO is gun shy about doing it again. Figgins is not yet a bust. He will perform. I don’t mind that he got pissed off about being put in the 9-hole. So what … play pissed, perform better – get your old job back! The team would probably also like to give him a chance to hit leadoff for a few games, but they have decided that would be synonymous with traversing over sacred ground. Again, I say … so what. Give it a shot – tell Ichiro the team needs to see how it might work. It’s not like they don’t have time and opportunity to experiment now. They have 100 games left to experiment.
I think Z does have a good head on his shoulders because not so long ago he was “in Z we trust” … in virtually everybody’s opinion. I haven’t seen any posts with that statement in a long time, so I will make it … with a caveat. “In Z we have to trust” He is currently the horse we are riding.
But in other news, according to a poll conducted of MLB players by SI; the M’s have the nicest guy in baseball.
Can we please move Ichiro! to the third spot in the order, and see how many home runs he can hit the rest of the year? Wouldn’t it be fun to see him hit 20 or so out the rest of the season, and then the haters can shut up.
As long as you accept that, there won’t be a change. You have to spend money to make money, in any business.
Neither of us have any way to know what profit margin the Ms have, or are trying for, or need as a baseline. In the absence of direct access to the books to see the literal bottom line, it’s just as reasonable to expect a business to figure out what it costs to put out quality product and then spend that, as it is to roll over and estimate what we think is some meager, marginal budget.
If they can’t spend what it takes to field quality product, then ownership needs to find that funding from somewhere else, sell to someone who can afford it. Or go with what you’re suggesting, which is more bargain-basement shopping.
…or, you know, do what a lot of other teams do and build up their farm. Spending lots of money gets you Miguel Batista, Carlos Silva, and Richie Sexson. It also strips away your top draft pick.
You’d think so… but apparently this baseball team, in this town, doesn’t operate like any other baseball team, or any other private business anywhere.
This is an interesting point. At the very least, getting to see Lee pitch once every 5 days would be a nice compensation prize for watching the rest of the season go to hell. From a purely selfish fan point of view, not thinking about Lee’s value, the team’s needs or the long-term benefits of what we can get for him, it’d be great to just keep him. Let other teams twist in the wind. I hate seeing the Ms be a glorified farm system or holding pen for contending teams. I’d love to see the Yankees, Red Sox, etc. fall over themselves to try to get Lee and then have to make do without him.
I’d also love to see the Ms actually build around someone like Lee, and not perpetuate the feeling that somehow the Ms specifically and Seattle in general doesn’t deserve someone of his talent. You have to start somewhere. If Jack and company can convince him that the Ms are going somewhere, and that they’ll get him the run support he needs in a season or two, and that getting the Ms back to the postseason here would make him an icon in Seattle forever… why not?
Why does the Ms fanbase always have to settle for second best, for later on, for “we’ll get ’em next year”? Why must a premiere player only be seen in terms of what prospects we can get for them, instead of someone to build around?
Why doesn’t Seattle deserve, go after, and lock up someone like Cliff Lee?
Just because this franchise has spent lots of money on those players, doesn’t mean that’s all you can get when you spend money.
And just because you have lots of money doesn’t mean you’d just blow it on one or two “key to the franchise” players. (Though it’d be nice to see the occasional quality investment, as I ranted about above re: Lee.)
That money could go a long way to getting pieces that could round out the farm. Think international signings. Think better role players than we have now, that could be flipped for prospects. And so on.
Is it reasonable to ask if the M’s might give Ackley some PT this season in the bigs? Or is he still too raw for the call up? The seasons over, it wont hurt anything really……his confidence I guess if he can’t perform, but I think he’s capable of putting up at least avgerage numbers!
Ditto!
Exactly!
They need him. They know they need him. They should try to find a way to keep him. For all I know – they are doing just that. Their self imposed budget is a pain in their own ass. THEY ARE NINTENDO.
On most days, they are only going to be as good as that days starting pitcher. The team knows they have no chance to win when they send guys like Snell and Hyphen to the mound … and then they play like they know it. And then, it snowballs. Build around your studs if you can. If you can’t – then move on. Make the effort, spin the effort if it blows up … but make the damn effort.
Chris, I’ve noticed a number of times that you seem to have this notion that if Mariners fans somehow express precisely the correct kind of outrage in precisely the correct way, we can somehow create a situation in which the Mariners add substantial money to the payroll. It’s an interesting idea, but I wonder if you could explain how this might work. It seems to me there are two things fans can do.
1) complain loudly in public and semi-public forums.
2) stop supporting the team financially (primarily via attendence) until a greater investment in the team is made.
It seems extremely unlikely, to put it mildly, that management would be at all responsive in the way you’d like them to be to either of those strategies. (If anything, the latter strategy is at least as likely, if not much more so, to result in lower payroll).
How is this supposed to work?
What about Lou Marson? He fits the bill of a defensive catcher they’ve been searching for in the draft and probably has a higher offensive ceiling than any catcher we have now.
“Trading Ichiro is not an option. He is worth more to the Mariners than he is to any other franchise … and no other franchise is going to spend $17/18M a year for Ichiro’s levels of production. The face of the franchise will not be traded. Nor should he. He is not worth his salary in terms of production on the field – we all recognized that – but he is worth what he is being paid in terms of the “business” of the Seattle Mariners. ”
I wouldn’t completely rule out trading him. In some ways I would compare his situation to the last few years of Gary Payton’s career here: Aging but still effective player on a team in the depths of rebuilding. Probably won’t be as effective by the time the team is good again. Coveted by other teams …
It doesn’t appear that the team will be contending in the next 2 years, by which point Ichiro’s contract will be finished and he will be 38 years old. I’m sure he can still play at a high level but it’s not as if the M’s are going to sign him to a 7 year deal. In fact is it even a certainty that he would return to the M’s? I’m not so sure. The club has had only 3 winning seasons in the last 8 years. Perhaps both sides might agree a change is in their best interests.
I believe that if a team offers the right package in return anyone on this team except Felix and Guti should be available.
Wow. Djw, that’s an extremely valid thing to call me on.
You’re right that an individual fan, or even some sort of organized fan effort, will have zero effect on the budget or decision-making of the front office.
I think when I express these sorts of things, it’s more about what I’d want to see, what gives me confidence in the front office, what kind of armchair quarterbacking I’d do, etc. It’s much more about my enjoyment and my vision of what a great baseball team would look like, than a realistic suggestion or some sort of weird “activist fandom”, so to speak.
It’s also an expression of my frustration of how much the Ms fetishize and make money off of 1995, and how the Ms market to casual fan / tourist destination / family, and seem to build just the minimal team needed to make that profitable.
You’ve given me good food for thought on how I vent or critique in the future. Thanks.
Quick, random thoughts, not deep analysis so I can withstand any comments. Apologies for duplicating any recent posts (and congratulations for you posters for being so brilliant!)
2012 is when Wak and Z’s contracts are up so that is the year we should expect a solid team (and the budget points to that). M’s aren’t going to get rid of them before that. We just finished the second draft of Z’s regime, haven’t even announced any signings yet. That is Z’s strength and the reason he was brought in. He’s already improved it tremendously, it’s just not going to pay major league dividends yet.
Money is not flowing into baseball, or the M’s, as it was in the past. Budget increases are a pipe dream for all of you ‘free spenders’ out there. The New Stadium Effect has worn off for us, plus we’ve sucked a lot, so attendance is not going to improve soon. We shouldn’t spend our money on established players anyway. It never works here. Seattle is a great place to start your career (Junior, A-Rod, Edgar, Tino, Omar, Reynolds, Davis, Langston, Tartabull, Boone, etc., etc, etc.), jump-start your career (Bone, Unit, Freddy, Guillen, Guti, Dan Wilson), or resurrect your career (Moyer, Boone again, Sele, Olerud, Aardsma, Branyan, Cameron), but it’s a horrible place to continue your career (Fasserro, Cirillo, O’Brien, Cowens, Beltre, Sexson, Spiezio, Aurilia, Silva, Bedard, Bradley…?, Figgins…?) If an established player isn’t a bust immediately, they rarely live up to the life of their contract or return the value we gave up. We’d do best to develop our own or trade for ready prospects rather than spend for outsiders. Dumb GM’s and Win Now GM’s have crippled this franchise for much of its history. This year’s team was a patchwork of bargains and risky investments – as will next year’s probably – so that we can get back to being a decent, long-term, sustainable organization like the Twins or Angels, or the Dodgers used to be for decades. At least that’s my hope.
We also went “a bridge too far” this season, thinking we had the magic touch. Too many head cases couldn’t be healed and resurrected at the same time by our ‘new wave’ organization. Chemistry is primarily the result of winning, but there is a component that comes from good people and not just winning. You can’t turn a turd into a tuna sandwich every meal though. Our coaches had some success last year improving players and brought on too many more project players and tried to change too many things in too many aspects of the game at once. It may pay dividends down the road but I think they’ve done more harm than good so far this season. We also implemented new clubhouse food, weight training, yoga, and on and on and on. While these may all be good ideas, we should’ve started with the minor leaguers and introduced them gradually. We couldn’t keep fragile, old players from being fragile and old with new techniques, especially if they don’t buy into them. Bring back cheeseburgers and free weights for the old guys and train the kids in the new ways. While I’m at it, if the eye exercises that Edgar and Branyan used made them better, why isn’t ’he new wave Mariners pushing them?
Every new regime has their eyes on undervalued assets they know of they could bring in, but those dry up with each season. Jack corralled the good ones last year, this year’s were more of the Large Item Pickup variety. There’ll be fewer ‘steals’ out there next year. That’s just the nature of it. And everybody, well at least most teams, is aware of sabremetrics by now. I think we’re still seeing the lingering effects of the steroid/HGH (and amphetamines) era on both statistical analysis and player evaluation. A guy may be clean now but he got big (and stayed healthy) with help. I wish we had 25 of Ichiro when it came to training.
And please, are we so desperate as to think we’re going to improve by picking up Royals rejects? I think Kila will be in the bigs if and when he’s ready and K.C. is out from underneath Jose Guillen’s contract. They’re not going to just give him away if he’s any good. Let’s run Carp, Nelson, and Everidge out there first, we already own them.
2010 was a too much, too soon. A bet we lost, but we still have more chips than we started with. And we sure had a good buzz this winter when it’s needed most. Let’s hope we pawn off Wilson or Bradley and any small part of their salaries before the end of the season too. They’re not going to be any part of moving forward. The good news is that if we do sign any free agents this next winter we shouldn’t lose our draft pick; we’re certainly going to be in the top fifteen.
I agree to both. Gordon is just too young to call him an all-time organizational bust. And it baffles me that no one has stepped in and wanted to give Ka’aihue a shot, and traded for him yet.
It’s equally baffling to me why Gordon hasn’t panned out any better than what he has, though. I mean, this guy was regarded as one of the more surefire prospects for them in years, I heard “off-the charts ceiling” for his hitting tool’s description at least twice.
But maybe he just needs a change of scenery. Didn’t help us with Snell, but if the right deal’s in place, I can see Gordon being WELL worth the gamble.
And Lord knows the Royals aren’t adverse to having players with Mariner history on their roster.
What would it take to land Ka’aihue AND Gordon? I know some guys I’d RATHER see go and saddled to KC, but I’m assuming we have to give up seeming-proportionate quality.
Maybe Jose Lopez, Adam Moore and sell high on a prospect, like Alex Liddi (whom I give no real chance on becoming a star)?
Greg Halman wouldn’t make me cry to say good-bye to, either.
Why do people keep insisting Ichiro could hit for a lot of power if he just wanted to? It’s pure nonsense.
Those three one run losses to the White Sox. The close losses to the Rangers at Safeco earlier this season. Not to mention many other tight games in the later innings. An Ichiro homer would have won several of those games.
But he didn’t want to? An infield hit was going to help more?
Ichiro is a very good player and one of my favorites but to think he can hit for power just because he does in batting practice is rediculous.
The M’s need a Morneau, Miguel Cabrera, Longoria, Braun. A hitter for average and power.
Ichiro is a nice compliment but not a bat that can carry a team.
As long as we’re venting (and picking on the pregame color announcer/postgame ubiquitous microphone girl has to be the depths of venting), here’s one for the Yuni haters to sink their teeth into.
Oakland has been successful with plugging in AA arms into starting roles. We should copy them, and bring up Michael Pineda for the starting rotation next year, as well as Steven Hensley. At some point we would have to shut them down to not get their innings up too much, but we have other serviceable options for fill in starters. This same approach could apply to our bullpen; it worked pretty well with Shawn Kelley.
I also think that we should have attempted to pick up Kila last year.
Shanfan – You had me at “You can’t turn a turd into a tuna sandwich”. Nice post.
And, interestingly, I also noticed Jim Presley’s name mentioned in that article as well under the M’s all-time bottom feeders in OBP per their first 2k at bats…
If Edgar doesn’t get into the HOF sometime within the next few years, Presley — or, should I say, the organization’s overvalue of him — will be a contributing factor as to why he didn’t.
Shanfan…great post and some funny stuff.
Does anyone know if fan favorite Chris Snelling is still in professional baseball?
It does seem like there are other organizations that are also looking under rocks for assets that may be useful. Big spenders like the Yankees and Red Sox do not trade prospects for established vets…they wait throw big money during the off season, but trading away assets appears to be among very old school teams like the Phillies. I don’t see a big market for Cliff Lee.
Or, they trade crappy and overrated ones for them (see: Davis, Russ and Hitchcock, Sterling).
Cliff Lee will be the best pitcher available, at the lowest price (in terms of salary), who will bring back a pair of draft picks next season if he isn’t re-signed.
There will absolutely be a big market for Cliff Lee.
I realize you intended these to be “quick comments” but to take one of your examples, the new workout programs, that’s exactly what’s happening. And the same for food, and so on — it’s not as if they were serving Famous Bowls last season and switched entirely to tofu and mixed greens every day. This criticism doesn’t hold up.
Were you in a coma in 2001?
*Toast* the official food of the Seattle Mariners organization
How bout a commercial where Jack and Wak are standing around eating some. Yum. Ichiro stops by, maybe Figgy. Felix drops in. Dustin. Man, toast. Yum.
2001 Ichiro had a .381 obp with 8 homers. Really carried us.
242 hits, 56 stolen bases, .369 wOBA, 117.4 wRC (second on the team only to Boone), 6.1 WAR (second again only to Boone).
That’s pretty damn close to carrying the team.
That’s utter nonsense. If Edgar never makes it into the Hall of Fame, it has little to do with Jim Presley and the Mariners, and almost everything to do with Edgar Martinez as a player.
I don’t write this as an invitation or attempt to discuss this — this is certainly not the time and place for that. I would just encourage you to take a close look at everything that was going on at the time without the advantage of seeing everything from the perspective we have now, 25 years into the future.
It’s just a knee-jerk response to what you posted — take it for whatever you think it’s worth.
Because six years of Hellickson is worth way, way more than half a year of Cliff Lee, 6 years of Wade Davis probably is too, Matt MOore and Jake McGee aren’t worth Lee, and with their ridiculous depth of talent Tampa Bay is built to keep up a sustained run and doesn’t have to throw their chips in to take one shot at winning it all. There’s no match here. Some teams will gut the farm to make a run, but not the Rays. Nothing to see here. Move on.
Granted, there seems to be a tougher hill to climb for DH’s, so that may or may not affect things in Edgar’s case. But if the 3k hit plateau is regarded as a benchmark, he might have at least had a chance of getting there had the FO at the time not been screwing around with both Ken Phelps and Jim Presley on the roster while Edgar was wasting away in the minors and could’ve been called up sooner than he was.
But, as you said, it’s all now ancient history, so I guess it doesn’t really matter these days.
The thing I don’t want to see is us dumpster diving for relievers this year or next. We have enough questionable control starters to turn into relievers in our system.
What we don’t have is a legit 1b power bat, and I’m all for trying to pick up Prince Fielder if he is okay with a 4 year contract. If he can’t stay at 1b and has to DH we still have Raben, Poythress, Liddi, and maybe Wiswall for 1b. I think the idea that the Mariners can work without a bopper is being sorely tested this year. Fact is, we aren’t a national league team.
By the way moderators, this is a new account, but I used to go by micahjr. Please take me out of the moderation queue. I like HarryHaller better, Hermann Hesse character that was a psychological parallel to himself in the novel Steppenwolfe. I’m sure Jay Yencich is familiar.