The Problem With The Protection Theory
Of all the reasons given for re-acquiring Russ Branyan, perhaps the one that resonates most with people is the hope that having a guy who can hit the ball 450 feet may help the underachievers in the line-up to perform better. There’s no doubt that Chone Figgins, Jose Lopez, and Milton Bradley have all been miserable at the plate this year, producing far less than they did a year ago, and beyond any reasonable expectation of their performance for 2010. Now, with Branyan in the line-up to provide some power, a good amount of people are hoping that those guys will get better pitches to hit, and their production will rise over the course of the season because of it.
There’s two problems with this, however. The first one is that there’s no evidence to support the protection theory. It has been studied many times, and there’s been no link found between the performance of a batter and quality of the player hitting behind him. It’s a theory based on speculation, not on data, which should always make you take pause.
However, that’s not the only issue, nor the one I want to focus on, because making the data argument just leads us back down the tired road of people suggesting we’re too tied up in numbers (read: facts) and miss the human aspect of the game. So, instead, let’s talk about that human aspect, and the side that never gets brought up when the protection theory is espoused – the pitcher.
Pitchers want to get hitters out. In general, pitchers who get to the major leagues and stick around are pretty good at this singular job. It’s what they do, and what they get paid for. However, a key assumption of the protection theory is that major league pitchers are dumber than a box of rocks.
Seriously, here’s the basic theory – if there’s a good hitter on deck, pitchers will want to avoid pitching to that guy with a runner on base, so they’ll throw more strikes in order to avoid walks. These strikes are apparently meatballs, and because the batter in front of the feared hitter is now getting good pitches to hit, he’ll get more hits and get on base more often. The theory demands the pitchers actually pitch in such a way that they fail at the original stated goal, which is to avoid pitching to good hitters with runners on base. Apparently, we’re supposed to believe that pitchers are dumb enough to not notice that this suboptimal pitching strategy allows the guy in front of the good hitter to get more hits, as they just continue pounding fastballs in the strike zone that Mediocre Hitter X can whack.
Seriously, this is the backbone of the theory, and it doesn’t make any sense at all. Why would a pitcher rather give up a hit to a mediocre batter than a walk? They wouldn’t, and they don’t. If a pitcher saw that the way he was attacking guys in front of the sluggers was allowing more baserunners (a necessary result of the idea that guys like Figgins will perform better than they have been), then they would pitch differently, because they would actually be faced with more situations where the slugger had a chance to drive in runs, not less.
With just a few exceptions, pitchers are not dumb. If they can get Chone Figgins to hit .230 by pitching him the way they are now, sans home run hitter behind him, they’re not going to suddenly start pitching him in a way that will let him hit .280. That’s counterproductive to their entire goal. If the protection theory was legitimate, and pitchers did indeed throw meatballs to guys batting in front of big sluggers, they would quickly figure out that this wasn’t a very good idea, and that they would be better off pitching each hitter in a way that gives them the absolute best chance of getting that guy out, regardless of who is on deck.
Which is exactly what they do. This is how pitchers work – get the guy out at the plate, worry about the next guy when he steps in. They do not throw easily whacked fastballs down the middle because they’re living in fear of the guy on deck. It’s just not reality.
Chone Figgins, Jose Lopez, and Milton Bradley should hit better the rest of the year, but it won’t because pitchers are finally giving them pitches they can tee off on due to the presence of Russ Branyan.
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Would you work for free to make your business better?
Of course not.
It’s not even his business. It’s not like they’re offering him equity.
Given the kind of personnel decisions Ichiro! has seen in his time as a Mariner, should he have any faith that some further deferral would result in the right players coming in?
And, moreover, what are the odds that when the M’s are paying that deferred salary people will complain about how Ichiro’s so selfish he’s hurting the team even from retirement? 100%? 200%?
He wouldn’t be working for free. He would be deferring payment. People defer payment from their business to increase the likelihood of future success all the time. Owners of closely held businesses frequently loan money to the company so that it can be successful in the future (when they will presumably be paid back). If Ichiro considers himself so invested in the M’s as to care about its future in that way, I can see him doing it. But I certainly wouldn’t expect him to. Or hold it against him if he doesn’t want to.
But I certainly wouldn’t expect him to. Or hold it against him if he doesn’t want to.
HE IS ALREADY DOING IT
DMZ’s point is the key: it’s not his business. Ownership obviously isn’t going to give him equity, but they aren’t even going to give him any control. He’s just an employee, and not many employees would do that.
Dude, I’m on your side. I know he’s already doing it. That’s two posts up.
I know! That’s — argh
I’m not an expert, but I am pretty sure the Player’s union is not really a fan of players deffering or giving up large parts of their salary (Didn’t that happen with Alex Rodriguez one time?).
I was finding the Branyan move curious as well, like most other Mariners fans, but then I came up with this idea: perhaps Jackie Z is making a minor investment in the offense, not to insure wins enough to compete, but to insure wins enough to guarantee a guy like Cliff Lee victories. If Lee has even a few runs more a game than he’s used to, him taking a loss looks far fetched. So perhaps Jack wanted to guarantee Lee’s highest possible stock by protecting Lee’s odds of getting an extra win or two. If so, it’d be the first time I’ve ever seen a GM make a move in order to protect the value of one player in particular, in order that he could maximize the value gained in return off a trade of that player.
Now, this is all speculation, of course. Who knows if a thought like this ever came across Jack’s mind. But, it’s a shrewd reason, and one I wouldn’t put past our GM.
Here’s a notion: instead of calling for Ichiro to lower his salary (?!?!?), how about calling for the front office to raise the overall budget, so that Jack has the flexibility to get multiple high quality players?
That’d be opposing the side that has more of the money.
That’s unAmerican these days.
Sigh. You could look this stuff up, you know. I mean I realize that’s snarky and all, but… come on. When you start a sentence with “I’m not an expert, but…” just… anyway.
The MLBPA is against contract concessions that reduce the present dollar value of the contract. So if a player and team want to defer money, that money needs to be deferred with appropriate interest, or put in T-bills, or whatever.
And then In Alex’s case, you may remember one of the things he was able to trade off against the dollar contract was the ability to do endorsements in the team’s uniform (rather than the generic fake ones they have to use all the time).
So… yeah.
Well, it doesn’t have to be for free. I’m sure he could make some money off Google AdWords, and maybe the M’s could put a PayPal Donate button on their website for him.
This example does not apply to the Mariner situation but it is interesting re: the protection issue…
In 1961 Roger Maris hit 61 hr’s (was MVP) and was intentionally walked ‘0’ times. Of course the guy hitting behind him was a bit above Branyan.
Seriously? The “ICHIRO HURTS THIS TEAM” meme? I thought everybody killed this dead a couple years ago.
As much as I don’t want to reset this Bill James line for the umpteenth time… bad teams (and bad fans) focus their frustrations on the team’s best players.
Ichiro’s $13 million on the books is not what’s stopping this team from competing. The Mariners have money to spend. They just need to spend it wisely and acquire talent wisely. Ichiro is not the reason this team is so far under .500.
Speaking from a coach’s point of view on the subject of protection, batting in front of a respected hitter does guarantee a higher probability of fastballs – nothing more, nothing less. So the protection comes in the form of that. Whatever it’s worth, literally, is what it’s worth. It may be overrated, it may be a probability variable that translates into an arguable effect, but to whatever degree that fastball-vs-offspeed is a factor, it is as real as it gets.
I’m guessing that there may be 10% of MLB starters who may be “above” the theoretical advantage, and most likely a high percentage of confident closers as well.
To whatever degree a hitter can be “protected”, however, the protection is real.
Speaking from a coach’s point of view on the subject of protection, batting in front of a respected hitter does guarantee a higher probability of fastballs
Have you tracked this, pitch by pitch, and looked at the data? Because at the major league level, it’s not true. It may be true in lower levels, where pitchers aren’t smart enough to not do this, but it’s not in the big leagues.
Sorry DMZ – I was just trying to not add to the constant stream of misinformation that has been spread the last few days.
If Ichiro really wants to show how committed he is to the Mariners, he should not only give up his salary and play for free, he should agree to dress up as the Mariner Moose and ride around on that ATV during 7th inning streches.
Oh yeah, he should also pass out lollipops to children before the game.
If Ichiro refuses to do all these things, that proves that he is selfish–without a doubt!
Maybe I missed the link (I started skimming when I hit some of the comments above) but a chapter from THE BOOK that looks at this from the pitching perspective is posted at The Hardball Times. The conclusion is that protecting a batter just ensures he will get fewer walks, not that that he will get better pitches to hit: