Game 91, Mariners at Angels
Rowland-Smith vs Saunders, 6:05 pm.
Two not-good lefties face off. The only three interesting hitters on this team right now are left-handed (or, in Smoak’s case, he’s a switch hitter who is much better from the LH side). You probably have something else more interesting to do.
A Series of Unrelated Items!
It’s too bad the exclamation point is completely played out. Thanks to the unstoppable forces of the internet and sarcasm, you can’t use one without implying irony or misplaced enthusiasm. I’m not attempting to do that, I’m just trying to gussy up a links post, because some of this stuff is really interesting. The rest of it is Mariners-related.
1: With all the pitch fx data out there, it was only a matter of time before we started to get solid data on pitch types, and how each pitcher’s results (by pitch) differ from league averages. Fangraphs started showing league averages in the pitch fx sections of player pages, which was cool, but if you want to know what the league average whiff rate was on a slider, well that was tougher. Trip Somers’ site added those data, but what about HR rate? What about batted balls? Harry Pavlidis’ post at The Hardball Times has you covered. I keep coming back to this after months, and it still raises new questions.
The slider has the best raw results, while the change looks great from a FIP standpoint. Of course, the slider’s always been a pitch with a serious platoon split – but why is that?
2: Well, it may be because off-handed hitters see it early. I find the last two graphics in this Dave Allen post fascinating. Having platoon-split data by pitch is wonderful, and having a plausible explanation for why it exists is a perfect accompaniment.
3: Some of you may have seen Colin Wyers’ article at Baseball Prospectus asking a simple question: how do we know how good defensive metrics are? Are they better than they were, and if so, how much?
This started over a year ago with some investigations into UZR’s year to year reliability, and then Colin started to investigate bias in the play-by-play data itself. The article today sums it up: if we have issues with the data (that persist over time), what does reliability really mean? What are we measuring? The question spurs great responses from the usual suspects (Tango, Mike Fast, et al.).
While this seems pretty technical – and it is – I think Fast’s article at THT does a great job of laying out why it matters and why it’s important that these questions get a fair hearing. In comments, Tango and others point out that Wyers’ question isn’t the same as a conclusion. The take-away here isn’t: defensive metrics are worthless. It’s, how do we know how good they are? We can look at how UZR’s constructed, and we note the more granular data we collect these days, and both seem like they’d add a lot. But how do we know? Is this equivalent to moving from using ERA to tRA (a massive, huge improvement)? Or is it marginal?
One of those statements that I’ve never understood (think “Ichiro hurts this team by…”) is something to the effect that the ‘stats guys’ care only about confirming each others results; that it’s a club of people telling each other they’re smart. The on-going debate over defensive metrics shows how ridiculous that claim is, and it does so as quietly and effectively as Ichiro doing whatever Ichiro’s doing renders the vague, inchoate complaints about him meaningless.
4: In last night’s 3-2 loss, the M’s left Casey Kotchman in to face LOOGY-masquerading-as-closer Brian Fuentes. Apathy can affect players/staff as much as it affects M’s bloggers, but it’s still a rather remarkable decision. I know the team’s got injuries (Russell Branyan’s run-in with a rogue hotel coffee table being the most recent and the most bizarre), and the go-to guy for a situation like this – Mike Sweeney- is on rehab with the Rainiers. But how about Milton Bradley? How about Josh Wilson? Dave mentioned on twitter that Fuentes’ FIP v lefties is 0.53 and against righties it’s 6.39. If you’re trying to win the game, you pinch hit. If you’re trying to ‘showcase’ Kotchman, you pinch hit.
Incidentally, reason this season has been awful and surreal #459: I’m writing about how Josh Wilson should’ve been given a high leverage AB.
5: It may be nothing, but divisive prospect (“5 tools!” “Makes Wlad Balentien look like Kevin Youkilis!”) Greg Halman has cut his K rate markedly in July, and hasn’t struck out in 13 PAs, which would seem like a vanishingly small number for anyone but Greg Halman. Halman’s flourished in the PCL, with 20 HRs and a wOBA of .400 and solid CF defense. He’s clearly not ready for the majors at this point, but in a season of disappointments on the big club, Halman heads the list of surprises on the farm. We’ll see how long this ‘improvement’ keeps up, but it’s nice to finally see a tolerable K-rate to go along with the prodigious power, even over a short sample. You can quibble about a decline in walk rate, but he’s been hitting so well that it seems more like nit-picking. Matt Mangini and Halman’s seasons in AAA are among the biggest surprises of 2010. Too bad the biggest is that Chone Figgins has been a replacement level player thus far.
Game 90, Mariners at Angels
Hernandez vs Weaver, 7:05 pm.
Happy Felix Day.
I spent a good amount of time with Rich Lederer down in Anaheim last weekend. Lederer, if you’re not aware, is one of the world’s largest Jered Weaver fans. I am one of the world’s largest Felix Hernandez fans. We’ve gone back and forth on their relative merits over the years, but we still get along pretty well, and Rich was great the whole time.
That said, I’d love to send a taunting email in about three hours, so here’s hoping for a 10-0 beatdown. Go to work, guys.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Gutierrez, CF
Lopez, 3B
Kotchman, DH (3rd time in his career)
Smoak, 1B
Saunders, LF
Johnson, C
Jack Wilson, SS
A Tale Of Two Fisters
Doug Fister, first nine starts of 2010:
BB%: 4.1%
K%: 10.7%
Strike%: 64%
Doug Fister, last five starts of 2010:
BB%: 5.6%
K%: 12.1%
Strike%: 67%
Effectively, Fister’s pitching exactly the same as he was earlier in the season. The difference? His first nine starts, he had a .235 batting average on balls in play, and his last five starts, its .337. Balls that were being hit at people are now finding holes.
He wasn’t an ace in April, and he’s not junk now. He is what he is; a strike-throwing back-end starter whose performance will fluctuate with the randomness of BABIP. Don’t worry about his recent struggles too much. Just like his early season success, it won’t last.
Game 89, Mariners at Angels
Fister vs Pineiro, 7:05 pm.
I’m back in NC after my weekend at the All-Star Game, and will resume posting as regular again. Thanks for bearing with us, though Jay and Marc did a great job while I was gone.
As for the M’s, the second half of the season sees the focus officially shift to the future, so expect to see Smoak and Saunders in the line-up pretty much every day, as they are today.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Gutierrez, CF
Lopez, 3B
Bradley, DH
Smoak, 1B
Saunders, LF
Johnson, C
Jack Wilson, SS
Jamey Wright Replaces Chad Cordero Too
In addition to the move outlined below by Marc, the M’s have also signed Jamey Wright as a free agent, and he will take Chad Cordero’s spot on the roster. Cordero rejected his assignment to Triple-A and is now a free agent.
Wright is what Sean White is supposed to be – an extreme groundball guy who gets hitters to pound his sinker into the dirt. The problem is that he doesn’t do anything else well, and his below average command and lack of an outpitch make him a pretty mediocre reliever. He’s nothing to get excited about.
Still, though, any day that involves Sean White going away is a good one.
Chris Seddon up, Sean White down?
The TNT’s Ryan Divish is reporting that Rainiers LHP Chris Seddon has been added to the 40 man roster and his heading north to join the Mariners. Not sure about the corresponding move, but it looks quite likely that Sean White’s lost his spot in the bullpen.
Seddon was a minor league free agent the M’s picked up from the Marlins organization. He’s been a decent innings eater, but a drop in his walk rate led to a half-decent FIP of 4.12 this year. His ERA is even better, thanks to a low BABIP and a marked improvement in his ability to get righties out. His stuff isn’t overwhelming, but with a reduced walk rate and a bit of improvement in his GB rate, he’s made himself a decent option to replace Garrett Olson. Man, I’m really selling this, aren’t I?
This is the latest step in what’s been a month or two of constant churn in the Tacoma bullpen. The M’s picked up all manner of indie leaguers, ex-MLB relievers and ex-prospects and given them each a bit of time to make an impression. Most haven’t worked out, as they’ve demoted a few guys to AA, and released Billy Traber (to make room for Dustin Ackley). This is what depth is for, and while it’s nice to see them make these moves quickly, I’d really like to see a bit more separation between the fill-in guys and the MLB bullpen. As it is, Seddon isn’t much different from 3-4 guys in the M’s pen, and that’s yet another example of why 2010 hasn’t gone to plan.
Here’s a video of an interview Mike Curto did with Seddon, and here’s a picture of Seddon in action. Here’s Divish’s blog post on the move.
Back to the Future: Mariner Edition
If you’re at all familiar with 1989’s smash-hit Back to the Future II — i.e., the pinnacle of American filmmaking — you’re probably also familiar with the part of that movie in which an elderly Biff Tannen (the 2015 version) steals Doc Brown’s time-traveling DeLorean in order to deliver a copy of Grey’s Sports Almanac to a young Biff Tannen back in 1955.
The Almanac, as everybody who’s anybody knows, is the source for “all sports facts [and] in-depth coverage of all major sporting events from 1950 to the year 2000.” The value of such a thing in 2015 is purely nostalgic; in 1955, however, such information is worth cash money. The young Biff soon realizes as much and uses the Almanac to (1) amass great wealth via gambling success, (2) build a giant, evil casino empire, and (3) forever alter the course of Hill Valley’s future, from one of smiling faces and winding roads to a horrid, crime-ridden dystopia.
In other words, the usual.
Though the narrative thread from Back to the Future represents an extreme version of such a thing, it’s actually not uncommon to hear a person — anyone, really — wonder aloud what it might be like to visit a younger version of himself and provide counsel. Said counsel needn’t be for financial gain, either — perhaps it’s merely to say, “You should love your mother more” — but the idea is the same: if we knew then what we know now, well, things would be different.
As we enter the honorary (if not actual) second half of the season, it’s only natural to look back on what has been. The Mariners’ season has probably not gone exactly the way the organization would’ve preferred — and it certainly hasn’t gone the way that most Mariner fans would’ve preferred.
It begs the question: if certain people with ties to the Mariners could travel back via DeLorean to their pre-season selves, what advice would they give and how would it affect the future as we now know it?
A couple of attempts:
Time Traveler: Dave Cameron, Captain of the USS Mariner
Message from the Future: Future Cameron informs Past Cameron that Ken Griffey Jr. will amass 100 plate appearances before the end of May, that Milton Bradley will have an early-season freakout, that Chone Figgins and Jose Lopez will more or less forget how to hit a baseball, that Ian Snell will pitch exactly like Ian Snell, and that Sean White will be utilized more than is decent in a high-leverage capacity.
Effect: Confident in the overall health of the organization, Cameron keeps his cool; however, he makes a note to dose himself heavily with some manner of prescription benzodiazepine before sitting down to watch his Mariners.
Time Traveler: Jack Wilson, Mariner Shortstop
Message from the Future: After accidentally pushing the wrong button, Wilson finds that his time-traveling DeLorean arrives not at his, but at Josh Wilson‘s, house.
Effect: Jack tells Josh how the two of them will combine for only 0.5 WAR by the All-Star break. Also, they decide to become blood brothers.
Time Traveler: Cliff Lee, Happiest American Man
Message from the Future: Knowing that they’re basically the awesomest guys ever, Future Lee and Past Lee just kinda sit quietly together, each with a beer in hand, and consider the possibilities of a universe in which there are two Cliff Lees.
Effect: World peace or something like that.
Time Traveler: Mike Sweeney, Designated Hitter
Message from the Future: Future Mike tells Past Mike that he’ll slash .263/.327/.475 and will accrue 0.5 WAR though just 110 plate appearances — that he will, in short, bear a shocking resemblance to a league-average DH. Future Mike further advises Past Mike “not to pass out” upon hearing this news.
Effect: Past Mike passes out. Wouldn’t you?
Time Traveler: Ian Snell, Riddle Wrapped in a Mystery Inside an Enigma
Message from the Future: Future Ian Snell throws a rock through the window of Past Ian Snell’s home. Attached to the rock is a note that reads “Throw strikes, jerkface.”
Effect: Hardly any — except for the Past Police find and arrest Future Ian Snell, at which point the latter becomes permanently trapped in the past. (What? It could happen.)
Ackley, Two Others Join Rainiers
In a move that didn’t really surprise anyone who saw the details of the Lee trade, which included one 2B Matt Lawson, the M’s promoted 2B Dustin Ackley to Tacoma. The news? It was Ackley, plus LHP Edward Paredes and RHP Anthony Varvaro.
Let’s talk Ackley first because the suspense would be too much to bear otherwise. Ackley started out the year doing pretty awful, hitting just .147/.289/.227 in April. The separation on the OBP was pretty awesome, but otherwise it did not seem that much was going in his favor. Of course, this was entirely an aberration because Ackley had a .180 BABIP in that month, and being a left-handed hitter possessing strong contact skills and a bit of speed, you should be expecting him to be regularly sitting above .300. In subsequent months that was the case and he was hitting .303/.475/.447 in May and .294/.387/.451 in June. The left-right splits aren’t that great, as he’s .225/.375/.270 against southpaws to .280/.395/.435 against right-handers, but it’s also his first pro year, he’s being rushed, and I will threaten internet violence on the first person who suggests that the M’s should now consider him to be a platoon player.
The defense hasn’t been coming along as well as everyone has hoped. Remember all of those lovely quotes in the press during spring training, fawning over him and claiming that he looked like so much of a natural out there that they mistook him for another player entirely? That hasn’t held up. He’s made thirteen errors in seventy games on defense and has struggled like you might expect any player would at a tough level learning a new position. We knew that it would be more defense holding him back than offense, so this should be surprising. I’m not worried. The M’s aren’t worried. Ackley himself doesn’t seem to be worried, as back in April he was helping Pineda learn English using a Rosetta Stone program. He’s about as focused as you could hope from a player when it comes down to it. He’ll get it in time.
Getting to the bullpen arms, we come to Varvaro, who dropped to the 12th round in ’05 due to Tommy John surgery. Varvaro was a starter his first three years before switching to relief full-time last season. He ended the year in the Arizona Fall League, where he started to show better command with a 13/3 K/BB in 13.1 innings. While not at the same levels for the D-Jaxx, he’s gone from walk rates of six and over seven in 2008 and 2009 to one under five this year, and if you knock out April from that span, it’s under four. Varvaro might still be a year off, so no one should be expecting him to step in soon, particularly in a high-leverage role. He is, however, trending positively at a tough level to do so.
Paredes shares some similarities with Varvaro in that he has good stuff, bad command, and gave up starting last season. While he’s had his struggles against right-handers, Paredes downright vicious against same-handed batters and had walked fewer than one and struck out more than twelve per nine innings, a separation he started to distinctly show last season. The knocks on him is that he’s almost certainly a strict left-on-left guy down the road and, contrary to Varvaro, his command has been trending worse after a great April. I wouldn’t expect him to step in next season either, but we’ll see I guess.
The only other moves that have gone along with this thus far are that Beavan, Lueke, and Lawson joined the Diamond-Jaxx and LHP Billy Traber was released in Tacoma. This means that someone’s getting forced out of the rotation to make way for Beavan, but the last two spots there have been in flux all season so it’s really no big deal.
All-Star Game LiveBlog
For those of you interested in such things, I’ll be liveblogging the all-star game for FanGraphs from my perch here in Anaheim. I’ll start at 4 pm pacific time, and you can come hang out and watch the game with me here.