New WSJ Piece
Since some of you have asked that I start linking to stuff I write elsewhere more often, here’s the piece I wrote for them today. I tackle the notion that 2010 is the year of the pitcher, when in reality, offense isn’t down from last year much more than it has been in many other recent years. It’s just a continuation of a trend rather than some massive outlier like the moniker might lead you to believe.
It’s also important to keep year to year relativity in mind when discussing the Mariners offense. Yes, it’s bad, we all know that. But if someone just pulls out total runs scored and says “this is the worst offense since blah blah blah”, it’s good to remember that offense is down everywhere, and has been trending down for years. It’s not an apples to apples comparison. The game has changed.
Yep, that’s just what I was thinking a while back when some national columnist was claiming the drop in offense was proof the juicing era was over.
I thought no, it’s more like the era of two-walks-and-a-bomb roster construction was over. Guys who can field their position are in vogue again, and that’s a double hit to run production.
Weeeelllll…
2010 Mariners: 3.25 runs/game, 2010 MLB: 4.44 runs/team/game
2008 Mariners: 4.14 runs/game, 2008 MLB: 4.65 runs/team/game
2004 Mariners: 4.31 runs/game, 2004 MLB: 5.01 runs/team/game
1978 Mariners: 3.84 runs/game, 1978 MLB: 4.10 runs/team/game.
This year’s incarnation of the Mariners is pretty much the worst team ever so far in terms of offensive production compared to the league, even when you start putting run production back in correct historical context. So much for being the 2010 version of the mid-80’s Cardinals…
Also- if this is a trend, where does it stop? Hopefully it stops before we end up where we were in the late 1960’s, with very boring pitcher’s duels every night, waiting for someone to make the mistake so you could win 2-1.
I’m not sure what year-to-year relativity has to do with it. If this were a question of people comparing this team to the 1993-2006 time period, then sure, overall offense is significantly down from then.
But the Mariners are on pace to score the fewest runs by any team in either league since 1971/1972. While the 2010 figure of 4.4 R/G is certainly down from recent years, it would actually be the 5th highest rate among the 20 seasons from 1973-92. Yet even in our relatively high-scoring 2010 context, the Mariners are on pace to score less runs than every single team from those 20 seasons.
Again, we have to go back to the 1971 and 1972 seasons, a time when teams averaged under 3.8 R/G, to find teams that the 2010 Mariners can outscore. So yes, we can put this team in its historical context, but only if you want to be truly depressed.
Also- if this is a trend, where does it stop? Hopefully it stops before we end up where we were in the late 1960’s, with very boring pitcher’s duels every night, waiting for someone to make the mistake so you could win 2-1.
The other night the Blue Jays beat the Rays 17-11.
Apparently they didn’t get the memo.
[off-topic]
[off-topic]
[off-topic]
[off-topic]
[off-topic]
Agreed
The WSJ piece highlights three years to show this is year is a trend, not an outlier:
2001 – 2002: -3.3%
2007 – 2008: -3.1%
2009 – 2010: -3.7%
Mariners production for the same years is:
2001 – 2002: -12.2%
2007 – 2008: -15.5%
2009 – 2010: -17.7% (extrapolated based on performance to date)
So whether you look at 2010 or the whole decade, the Mariners are front runners. Maybe we can turn this to our advantage? We can charge journeyman pitchers for the ERA benefits we provide them. That will give the front office a cash infusion to bring in more defensive specialists and remodel our ballpark to be even more pitcher friendly. Eventually, we’ll master this scheme and win more by scoring less.
Certainly seems like any negative trend happening in offense is going to be magnified by Safeco field, lending the “front runners” title to the M’s… Until recently (ie, prior to Petco, Target, etc.) we were also a front runner in “pitcher friendly” parks (I often wonder how much MORE of a marvel Safeco field could be if the left field foul line pointed east?).
Now add that to the fact that our GM is a big believer in defense and on base %, as a cost effective method with our current payroll (yes, yes, I know… it hasn’t worked), and the magnifying glass gets bigger still.
I highly doubt, no matter which sluggers we add to the roster, we’ll ever lead the league in batting or runs.
(Just heard: RIP Seattle M’s coaching staff…)