Free Talent
Yesterday, the Giants were awarded Cody Ross on a waiver claim, likely made to keep the Marlins from being able to ship him to San Diego. They didn’t need another outfielder, but they got stuck with him when Florida just let him go, and so they had to clear a roster spot. The guy who lost his spot, Matt Downs, is exactly the kind of guy the Mariners should be picking up and giving at-bats to.
Downs is a 26-year-old right-handed infielder whose career path probably leads to him being a utility player. He’s played mostly second base in the big leagues, but has played everywhere but center field and catcher in the minors. In many ways, he’s similar to Matt Tuiasosopo – only he’s better. He was a 36th round pick in 2006, so he wasn’t promoted through the farm very aggressively, only reaching Triple-A for the first time at age 24. He’s spent the last two years bouncing between Fresno and San Francisco.
Down in Triple-A, he’s hit .280/.339/.460, showing pretty decent power and contact skills, and occasionally the ability to take a walk. In the big leagues, he’s received 148 at-bats, and while his line is just .214/.291/.328, those same underlying skills are still there – the overall line is just dragged down by a .260 batting average on balls in play.
Based on his skills, ZiPS projects Downs for a .321 wOBA going forward. That’s not bad for a guy who can hold down second base and fill in at multiple positions, including shortstop in a pinch. For comparison, ZiPS has Tui posting a .284 wOBA going forward, and Downs is the better defender to boot. If you like Tui, you should like Downs. Same thing, just better.
At this point, the Mariners are just throwing at-bats away with Jose Lopez in the line-up and Chris Woodward on the bench. There’s no chance either of those guys will do anything for the Mariners next year. Downs actually could. Dustin Ackley struggles against lefties, so the team is going to need a right-handed second base option for 2011 in order to give him some days off against tough southpaws, and they may even want to keep him down in Tacoma to start the year to work on his defense and keep his free agent clock from ticking.
Downs could be a cheap, useful fill-in while they wait for Ackley to take the job, and then could easily slide into a utility role after Ackley is promoted. He’s the kind of guy this team should be giving playing time to – someone with some potential to be useful going forward, and who will cost essentially nothing to acquire.
Give the Giants a mediocre relief arm for Downs, and then he and Tui can fight it out for the right-handed utility infielder job. Woodward can go away, and Lopez can stop playing everyday. This is what lost seasons are good for – giving guys like Downs a chance to see what he can do. The Mariners shouldn’t waste opportunities like this so that they can keep running out useless players who will be in another organization next year.
I wasn’t making an argument. I was pointing out how poor I thought yours was. The ballpark is balanced,except for one aspect … the amount of talent provided by the home team through a myriad of decisions that have nothing to do with 326′, 331′ or 385′.
Dave, I get your overall point, but this is sloppy sabremetrics.
You know very well that BABIP is a skill for hitters, and given Downs lack of MLB time we really have no idea what his true talent BABIP is.
It could be .260.
Stick to his AAA stats when making your argument.
Actually, by definition, it has no value. Well, at least no value over a replacement level player. Factor in his 7-figure salary, and Lopez actually has significantly less value than a replacement level player.
Tommy Davis had two great years at Dodger stadium, and never became a good hitter for any consistant length of time after he left.
If Tui is playing on this team next year, we suck. He is not a major league player, at least not on an average (or above average team). Its great he’s a hometown kid and all, but we need to cut the court. He can’t hit and is a stiff in the field. He’s hitting .169 for sh!ts sake!
Enough with the human interest side of baseball. This team needs winners and the best players possible, not a guy that brings in an extra 60 fans a game because some fans like the fact he’s local and his bro played football for UW. If he’s playing next year, we’ve become Kansas City.
You know very well that BABIP is a skill for hitters, and given Downs lack of MLB time we really have no idea what his true talent BABIP is.
It could be .260.
You know what we don’t do when we don’t “know” something? Assume that the guy is an outlier. There’s no reason to believe his true talent BABIP is .260. Assume .300 unless you have a reason not to.
.300 is MLB average. That includes all the really good hitters.
As a 26 y.o. waiver wire pick-up with mediocre minor league stats and modest power, the far safer, and more likely assumption is that he is worse than MLB average. His career AAA BABIP is <.300, ~ .295 by my quick calculations, why would you assume he not only doesn't fall off, but betters that in MLB?
Sure, regress him some from the .260, but don't pretend you should regress it all the way to average. We have a lot of information that suggests he's a worse than average MLB hitter. Exhibit A: he's freely available.
I love irony so, well, I feel the need to point this out…
Downs’ AAA BABIP is .305 over 707 at bats…. For those who are interested in more than just AAA numbers, his career minor league BABIP is .321 over 1614 at bats.
Yeah, snapper is just wrong. ZiPS projects his BABIP going forward at .286. You don’t project outliers based on a lack of data. For coming in with your normal attitude and claims of “sloppy sabermetrics”, maybe you should try harder to know what you’re talking about?
I think you did nothing of the sort. You pretty much blew off the point and ignored it.
Frandsen… now Downs… watch for Ryan Rohlinger in the next couple of seasons if the Giants don’t give him a shot.
Giants could use Sean White…..swap! swap!
.286 which is not .300.
How is that inconsistent with my statement?
People throw around low, or high BABIP all the time saying the guy is going to regress. Well, for hitters they don’t all regress to .300.
Just making the leap: low BABIP = regress to .300 is sloppy sabremetrics.
Presumably it includes all of the really bad hitters too….
Given all we know about Downs, which is a bigger leap-his BABIP will regress to .300 or the assumption that he could be a true talent .260 BABIP guy?