Game 122, Mariners at Yankees
Hernandez vs Burnett, 4:05 pm.
Happy Felix Day.
Let’s just get right into the story of the day. Starting in left field tonight – Matt Tuiasosopo. I’m one of the group of people who agree that he should probably play more often than not, given the current construct of the roster. Jose Lopez and Casey Kotchman have no chance of being on this team next year, and his best positions are the infield corners. I’d have no problem with the team running Tui out there at either position for most of the rest of the year. I don’t think he’s going to turn into a good major league player, but letting him try to prove his doubters wrong is more useful than just assuming we’re right and giving his opportunity to guys playing out the string.
However, Tui should not be taking at-bats away from Michael Saunders. Ever. Saunders is one of the core guys that this team needs to develop in order to have a long term winner, and he needs to play as much as humanly possible. I’ll give Daren Brown the benefit of the doubt that Saunders is still sore from his fight with the wall, and maybe he’s not ready to go yet, even though they just said it was “a day off” on Tuesday when Tui subbed for him and had the big night. Four days later, however, Sanders is still on the bench.
I’m really hoping that Tui’s display in Baltimore isn’t going to earn him regular time in left field. It’s not a position he should ever really play anyway, and he certainly shouldn’t be playing instead of Saunders. Kotchman or Lopez, sure. Saunders, no. Let’s hope that the good young left fielder is back on the field tomorrow, regardless of how Tui does tonight.
Update: Saunders is healthy. Brown chose not to play him. He’s officially eliminated from consideration for the permanent managing gig. Just a ridiculous decision.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Branyan, DH
Lopez, 3B
Gutierrez, CF
Kotchman, 1B
Moore, C
Tuiasosopo, LF
Josh Wilson, SS
Smoak’s Defense
When the Mariners traded Cliff Lee for Justin Smoak (and stuff), we summed him up as a switch-hitting first baseman with power, patience, and a good glove. That was the generally accepted scouting report on the Rangers top prospect, who had drawn comparisons to Mark Teixeira coming out of college. In their pre-draft write-up, Baseball America said the following about Smoak’s glove:
As a first baseman, Smoak has Gold Glove-caliber actions and soft hands. His footwork and instincts around the bag are advanced and his arm strength is adequate… He is thought to be the best combination of offense and defense at first base in this draft class.
Two days after the trade, I had a very interesting conversation with a scout who had seen Smoak extensively over the last year. He told me to watch Smoak play for a few weeks, then let him know what I thought of his defense. He’d heard all the glowing reports as well, but after watching him play regularly as a pro, he wasn’t buying it. He mentioned that Smoak was one of the slowest players in the league, and had no athleticism to speak of. Generally, he just wasn’t impressed at all with his defensive abilities.
I took his challenge, and tried to watch as much of Smoak’s defense at first base when he was in Seattle as I could. I grudgingly agreed with his assessment – he was slow, the footwork wasn’t great, and I didn’t see anything that made me think he was a good defender in the making. Since he got optioned back to Tacoma, I’ve talked with a few more people who have seen him play regularly who feel the same way – they’re shocked when they watch him play, because we’ve all heard the “future gold glover” talk.
Trying to figure out what’s going on, I sought out a few more scouts whose work I respect. Neither of the guys I talked to work for the Mariners, so they don’t have a stake in his future. I was hoping one of them would point out something I was missing. Nope – just more “that guy is slow” and “I don’t get it either” talk.
At this point, I’m struggling to find anyone who likes Justin Smoak’s defensive abilities, much less projects him as a high quality defender. Speed and athleticism aren’t everything at first base – after all, Casey Kotchman might be the slowest guy in baseball – but I’m scratching my head at the reports of him being a plus glove. In the time I’ve watched him play, I don’t see it, and neither do a variety of scouts I’ve talked with.
I still believe in the bat, as the power and patience are legitimate, and he’s got enough offensive potential to be a good player even without adding much in the way of defensive value. However, I’m a little less excited about the guy than I was when the Mariners made the deal. The Mark Teixeira comparisons seem like a bit of a pipe dream at this point. A switch-hitting Justin Morneau, pre-2010 crazy breakout, is probably more along what we should expect. That’s still a nice player, of course, but that’s more of +3 to +4 win guy than true superstar.
Brock and Salk Day
I’ll be doing my weekly hit with Brock and Salk on ESPN 710 at 10:30 this morning. I’ll be bouncing around on Thursdays for a few weeks until we find a permanent time-slot, but I’ll let you guys know once it gets set.
Also, my latest post for their blog is now up, detailing how David Pauley is Doug Fister.
Ten Mostly Inappropriate Questions for Jack Z.
A lot of you guys (and ladies) are lucky: per yesterday’s announcement, not only will you be able to high-five each other all day and all night at the Hot Sexy USSM Event on September 4th, but you’ll be able to talk directly to the man who’s as likely as anyone to bring the very first World Series Championship to Seattle, Washington.
I’m speaking, of course, about Mariner GM Jack Z.
In the comments section of said announcement, reader Chris_From_Bothell raises a legitimate concern, however, about how questions will be posed to the Honored Guest. Chris suggests that perhaps questions could be fielded from the crowd before Jack appears, so’s to — in Chris’s words — “[get] the most out of the time, [have] a minimum # of microphones or presenters, [remove] duplicate questions or rambling speakers, and so on.” All those are legitimate concerns.
I’m willing to argue that Chris’s represents a rather optimistic view of the human race — a view where mere “rambling” is the worst-case scenario for this Q and A period.
While, in real life, I think I’d probably be able to contain myself and play the part of the good citizen, there definitely exists a parallel universe where — shamelessly and without a hint of self-awareness — I use the Event as an opportunity to ask the VIP any sort of question I’d like. Nor do I think I’m unique in this regard: most of us, were we caught on the right day — perhaps with the right amount of fermented beverage in our gullet — might transgress the unspoken rules of such an occasion and ask questions that are inappropriate, uncomfortable.
In what follows, I ask ten questions that the readership would probably be better off not asking — or at least not asking in the way they’re phrased below.
Voila:
1. This year’s roster was very clearly subject to a great deal of variance. Erik Bedard, Milton Bradley, even Jose Lopez: had everything come together, the team would’ve been hard to beat. As it is, the team is terrible. Question: Would you do it again — i.e. construct a roster that could finish anywhere between 65 and 90 wins? Or has this season taught you to avoid such a strategy?
2. Is Dave Cameron’s pre-season ranking of the Mariners in FanGraphs’ Organizational Rankings — No. 6 overall, in case you didn’t see — is that, as many have suggested, an act of rampant homerism? Or does Dave Cameron maybe have a clue what he’s talking about?
3. Any chance I could serve as your right-hand man? I mean, I see that you’ve got an Assistant GM and a Special Assistant to the GM, but I don’t see anyone in the organization expressly designated Right-Hand Man. I could do that so hard. When do I start?
4. The Ken Griffey Jr. re-signing, appeared to work out as poorly as possible. First, was this something you could’ve predicted at the beginning of the season? (Not that he’d fall asleep in the clubhouse and stuff, but that his performance would be so poor and he’d have so strong a hold over the clubhouse?) Second, to what degree was your decision to fire Wakamatsu directly related to the whole Griffey thing?
5. Regarding Brandon Morrow: Did you trade him because he wasn’t “your guy,” or because there were legitimate concerns about his ability to contribute as a starter? (I guess “little of both” is a reasonable, if unspectacular, response.) Do you regard what he’s done this year as, like, the 90th-plus percentile of possible outcomes for this season?
6. With regard to Brandon League: last year, his splitter was, as Matthew Carruth writes, the toughest pitch to hit, and he threw it about 35% of the time. This year, he’s throwing it way less often, and his strikeout rate has suffered predictably, down from 9.16 K/9 to 6.21 K/9. The xFIPs aren’t that different (3.53 last year, 3.16 this one), but it seems like that splitter is too good not to throw. What gives? Is this League’s choice, or an organizational mandate?
7. I wasn’t joking about that Right-Hand Man thing. What’s that? Restraining Order?
8. How much do you guys — and by “you guys” I mean the Seattle Mariners — how much do you know about measuring/valuing defense? How far off is UZR? Tell us right now… or else.
9. Is there a reason ever to sign a right-handed power hitter for this team, in this park? If “no” — and if it’s obvious to the rest of the league — does that give you a disadvantage when dealing with other teams?
10. What control does the team have over Jose Lopez and his insatiable desire for American cheesburgers?
Someone Just Wants The Season To End
Top 2nd – C Kotchman grounded out to first, J Lopez to third, F Gutierrez to second.
Top 4th – C Kotchman flied out to center.
Top 6th – C Kotchman grounded out to first.
Top 8th – C Kotchman hit a ground rule double to deep center, R Langerhans scored.
That looks like a play by play log of Kotchman’s night, right? Wrong. It’s a pitch by pitch log. Four times, Casey Kotchman walked to the plate tonight. Four times, he swung at the first pitch he saw. Four times, he put it in play.
Four at-bats, four pitches. I’m no historian, but I’m willing to bet that’s a record.
Game 121, Mariners at Orioles
Pauley vs Guthrie, 4:05 pm (maybe)
It’s raining in Baltimore, so this game might not get played. I’m sure the 12 people who plan on attending this epic clash would be crushed.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Branyan, DH
Lopez, 3B
Gutierrez, CF
Kotchman, 1B
Moore, C
Tuiasosopo, LF
Josh Wilson, SS
USSM Event – Now With More Jack Z
Maybe you saw the the announcement about the USSM event at Safeco Field on September 4th and said “that sounds fun, but all they said was the Q&A would include special guests, and I don’t want to pay $20 and find out that that we get to hang out with the Moose”. Well, now, we can be a bit more specific about who is scheduled* to attend, and as you probably guessed from the subject line, Jack Zduriencik will be returning with other members of the front office to hang out with us before the game.
We obviously have quite a bit to talk to him about, so if you want to get some face time with the GM, buy your tickets now.
*Disclaimer: We cannot promise that something won’t arise in the next two weeks that will prevent Jack from attending. He is planning on being there, and he has made it to each of the ones that that we have previously hosted, but it is possible that something may keep him away from the event. It’s unlikely, but we want to make sure you’re aware of the possibility.
Game 120, Mariners at Orioles
French vs Millwood, 4:05 pm.
Odds are pretty good that the Mariners are going to sign a cheap, veteran, innings eater kind of starter this winter. With Felix, Vargas, Fister, and Pineda as the best bet for your first four starters, they’re not going to want to have another unproven young arm a the back end, as they’d be too worried about blowing through the bullpen on back to back days. I’d imagine they’ll set aside a few million bucks for a guy that pounds the strike zone and can be counted on for six decent innings every five days.
Don’t be surprised if Millwood is one of the guys they go after. His high ERA will keep him from cashing in this winter, especially given his age, but he’s basically the same pitcher he’s always been. His 4.59 xFIP is actually lower than it was a year ago, when he posted a 3.67 ERA for the Rangers. He’s the quintessential mediocre innings eater, and he’ll likely be undervalued this winter because of his high BABIP this year. The Indians played this exact same game with Millwood a few years ago, getting him at a discount and then watching him reward them with a high quality season.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Branyan, DH
Lopez, 3B
Gutierrez, CF
Kotchman, 1B
Moore, C
Langerhans, LF
Josh Wilson, SS
It’s Not All Bad
Dispatches from Tacoma.
Dustin Ackley: 3 for 6, 2 doubles, walk-off HR
Justin Smoak: 2 for 3, 2 walks
Michael Pineda: 5 1/3 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 7 K
Josh Lueke: 2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 2 K
Oh, and just because its funny:
Rob Johnson: 0 for 4, walk, passed ball – his third in eight games for the Rainiers.
Game 119, Mariners at Orioles
Fister vs Bergesen, 4:05 pm.
Usually, when the Mariners travel to Baltimore, I take the opportunity to complain about MLB’s archaic blackout rules that prevent me from watching any Orioles game on MLB.TV, despite living seven hours and two states away. This time, though, I have to admit that it doesn’t bother me much – the odds of me choosing to watch these next three games in lieu of spending time with my wife were about the same as the M’s scoring 20 runs tonight.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Branyan, DH
Lopez, 3B
Gutierrez, CF
Kotchman, 1B
Moore, C
Saunders, LF
Josh Wilson, SS