USSM Goes To Safeco 2010
You didn’t think we were going to let a little thing like a terrible team stop us from having another USSM/LL event at Safeco Field again, did you? Of course not. Jeff Sullivan, Matthew Carruth, and I (and hopefully Derek…) are making our annual trip to the park, and this year, it will be better than ever. Saturday, September 4th, an afternoon and evening of baseball. Details are below. (Hint – click on “full screen”, it will make the doc much easier to read)
If you’ve been to any of the ones we’ve done at Safeco previously, you’ll notice the big difference this time – the Q&A is going to be held in the 300 level, rather than the Ellis Pavillion as before. By hosting that portion of the event in the seats, we get around the capacity problem we’ve run into previously. Where the Ellis Pavillion only holds 275 people, forcing us to turn interested attendees away, we now have the ability to sell a ticket to anyone who wants to come. We can pack the house with USSM readers, which is a pretty exciting opportunity.
Of course, since we’ll be taking up the 300 level for the event, the timing of the Q&A has also been moved up, and will now be held from 3:30 to 5:00 pm. That’s right – you’ll get into the park before the gates open, so you’ll get to talk baseball with members of the Mariners front office while BP is going on, and no one else will be inside. Once the gates open at 5:10, we’ll have to disperse so that those with tickets can, you know, sit in their seats, so we’ve arranged a special area where we can spend the two hours prior to game time just hanging out and talking baseball.
One of the things I’ve always wished we could do better about the prior Safeco events was have more interaction with the attendees outside of the Q&A itself. This time, we’ll have two hours leading up to game time to socialize and talk baseball in a less formal setting. And then, of course, you get to stick around and watch the game.
A 90 minute Q&A, a two hour USSM “mixer”, a good seat to the Mariners game on a Saturday evening, and a USSM t-shirt for $20? Good luck finding a better deal than this. These are always a good time, and I think this should be the best one yet. Don’t delay – buy now, and buy a lot.
Minor League Wrap (8/9-15/10)
I’m not actually here; it just looks like I am because there’s a posting. For the next week I’m going to be away from the computer, which means that the next wrap is going to be delayed to sometime mid-week.
The draft deadline is 9 pm PST tonight, so hopefully we’ll have some more good news beyond just Shipers by that point. I’m sure one of the other guys will have a post discussing what did or didn’t happen late this evening. I’ll be in the dark about it until I get back.
To the jump!
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Mauricio Robles’ AAA Debut
M’s prospect Mauricio Robles made his first AAA start this afternoon at Cheney Stadium. The hard-throwing lefty was acquired from Detroit along with Luke French in the Jarrod Washburn deal last year. He’s a converted catcher outfielder (thanks JY!), so it’s perhaps not surprising that his command and polish aren’t quite at AAA levels just yet. His fastball is MLB-quality, however, and he used it to dominate the Round Rock line-up for 4 innings today. Of course, baseball games are considerably longer than 4 innings, and he was completely out of sorts in a painful 5th inning that saw him give up 5 runs. Still, his first four innings were as dominant as anything I’ve seen from Pineda this year.
After yielding a single to the lead-off man, Robles retired the next ten hitters in order, with 6 strike-outs, a pop-up and 3 weak grounders. This prompted Rainiers’ play-by-play man Mike Curto to comment, “Let’s try this out, just to see…. Happy Mauricio Robles day?” As if shrinking from the implied comparison, Robles almost immediately lost his command. He got through the 4th without allowing a run, but picked up an injury tagging out Brian Bogusevic in a run-down. In the 5th, he looked absolutely lost. He walked 3 in the inning, including a bases-loaded walk to OF Jack Shuck. He grooved a fastball to the next hitter, Collin DeLome, who promptly hit it out to right field for a grand slam. He was having trouble with his release point (he threw a pitch 3 feet over the next hitter’s head; it was so wild it couldn’t be interpreted as a purpose-pitch) and his mechanics, and lost some velocity as well.
His FB started in the 96 MPH range, and sat around 94 through the fourth. In the 5th, it was more often 93 with a number of 92s, all without any semblance of control. Our fearless leader Dave Cameron mentioned that he thinks Robles is destined for the bullpen, and today’s outing would seem to support that view. And yet…for 3+ innings, he was dominant. It’s easy to find excuses or mitigating circumstances ranging from the general (converted catcher! Not used to pacing himself!) to the specific (he was injured immediately before he lost the strike zone), but it’s time for him to show that he doesn’t need them anymore. His stuff is good enough, though his change wasn’t as good as I’d hoped it would be. Until he makes that leap, though, he’s a confounding prospect – moving from unhittable to unwatchable from game to game or inning to inning. Still, on balance I was impressed with Robles, and terrible 5th inning aside, I’m excited about his promise.
Pictures below the fold.
Ms Ink Jordan Shipers
The Mariners busted slot recommendations this morning, giving 16th-round pick Jordan Shipers an $800,000 bonus to forego his commitment to Missouri State. The Ms have paid low-6 figure bonuses to a few guys in recent years, but this is the first time the Mariners have gone significantly above slot since they signed Matt Tuiasosopo back in 2004.
This is fantastic news. Teams like the Red Sox, who do not care about angering the Commissioner’s office, have had a giant leg up on the competition for years when it comes to mining the draft for talent. We just recently saw a sign of Boston’s aggressive draft strategy paying dividends, as OF Ryan Kalish, a 9th rounder who signed for $600,000 back in 2006, ripped through the high minors to make his major league debut this season.
The Mariners may not do this much next year, with all signs pointing to the team picking in the top half of the top half of the first round. The fact that they are willing to take a shot on signability guys, though, just makes this front office’s combination of smarts and resources that much more formidable. For reasons that outsiders have trouble fully comprehending, there are only a handful of teams willing to thumb their nose at Bud Selig’s seemingly toothless recommendations for draft bonuses. If the Ms become one of those teams, the system should get better in a hurry.
Game 118, Mariners at Indians
Hernandez vs Masterson, 10:05 AM.
Happy Felix Day.
The M’s put their ace on the mound as they go for the sweep. Not a bad position to be in.
Game 117, Mariners at Indians
Vargas vs Talbot, 4:05 pm.
Over the last 30 days, Michael Saunders has been the team’s best hitter – he’s at .288/.351/.442. Chone Figgins isn’t that far behind, at .298/.371/.375. Josh Bard has been decent for a catcher, hitting .257/.316/.400. And then everyone else has been horrible. Ichiro’s not hitting. Branyan’s not hitting. Gutierrez isn’t hitting. Lopez isn’t hitting. Neither Wilson can hit. Kotchman’s not hitting. Adam Moore’s still struggling. Bradley wasn’t hitting before they DL’ed him. Smoak wasn’t hitting before they optioned him to Tacoma.
Or, to put it another way, over the last month, the Mariners have hit 10 home runs. Adrian Beltre has hit nine.
This can’t continue forever. Eventually, some of these guys will start hitting. I promise.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Branyan, DH
Lopez, 3B
Gutierrez, CF
Kotchman, 1B
Bard, C
Saunders, LF
Josh Wilson, SS
Game 116, Mariners at Indians
Pauley vs Carmona, 4:05 pm.
Fausto Carmona does one thing well – he gets a lot of ground balls. He doesn’t throw many strikes, though, and he’s stopped getting many strikeouts, so he’s kind of a one trick pony. This is the kind of pitcher that the M’s attempted work-the-count approach should succeed against, as Figgins, Branyan, Gutierrez, and even Saunders have the ability to get deep into counts. I’m not saying that the M’s are going to explode for double digit runs or anything, but I’m at least somewhat hopeful that they’ll be able to create some offense tonight.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Branyan, DH
Lopez, 3B
Gutierrez, CF
Kotchman, 1B
Moore, C
Saunders, LF
Josh Wilson, SS
Should The Mariners Trade Chone Figgins?
A few weeks ago, we learned that the Braves and Mariners had a discussion about Chone Figgins before the July 31st trade deadline. The Braves, in search of a leadoff hitter and a guy who could play multiple positions for them, saw Figgins as the kind of guy they could use and get on the cheap, since he’d been a bust in Seattle so far. The Mariners reportedly rebuffed Atlanta’s advances, and the talks didn’t go anywhere.
Well, with today’s news that Chipper Jones has a torn ACL ans is done for 2010, you have to imagine that Frank Wren will at least call Jack Z to broach the subject again. With three years and $26 million left on his deal from 2011 to 2013, it is almost certain that Figgins would clear waivers and could be traded if the Mariners were so inclined. Given that he’s been on fire since August began, and the Braves are now a bit more in need of his services, you’d have to imagine the offer would be even better than it was a few weeks ago. So, that raises the question – should the M’s consider dealing Figgins if the Braves are interested, and if so, what should the asking price be?
Let’s just start with the facts. Figgins is set to make $9 million in each of the next two years, $8 million in the final guaranteed year of the deal, and then there’s a vesting option for 2014 that becomes guaranteed if he gets 600 plate appearances the year prior. This is not an outrageous salary by any means – he’s essentially getting paid like a league average player. However, if you were Jack Zduriencik, looking at the current roster and where the team was in relation to the AL West heading into next year, is that a contract you would offer Figgins as a free agent this winter?
I think the answer has to be no. For a contender, there’s a decent chance that Figgins is worth that much money. The marginal value of a win that pushes you from out of the playoffs into October baseball is huge. For a team like the Braves, who are fighting with the Phillies for one playoff spot, the opportunity to make an upgrade, even if its not a huge one, has a lot of value. For the Mariners, who have no chance of contending this year and probably a longshot at best chance next year, the wins that Figgins will add don’t have a lot of value.
Realistically, the Mariners are probably still going to be breaking in Michael Saunders, Dustin Ackley, Michael Pineda, Justin Smoak, and Adam Moore next year. It isn’t realistic to expect them to hit the ground running and carry this team to a 90 win season, but it’s also not prudent to block their devleopment by bringing in more proven MLB players. The 2011 Mariners are going to be a young team, and barring some huge breakout years from a couple of those guys, they’re probably not going to be able to keep up with Texas.
So, even if Figgins returns to previous form and is a +3 win player next year, those wins probably won’t put the Mariners over the top. By the time this team may be ready to be a legitimate contender in 2012, Figgins will be 34. Do you want to count on him still being an above average player in a few years? More importantly, are you willing to give up a significant chunk of the payroll now in order to find out?
Beyond just the value of the wins added, there’s a question of the natural fit for Figgins here in Seattle. The core of this team’s offense going forward is Ichiro, Gutierrez, Saunders, Smoak, and Ackley – three left-handed bats, a switch-hitter who struggles against lefties, and a right-hander who is in the line-up for his defense. If you keep Figgins, the only open positions where you could potentially get some legitimate offense from a right-handed hitter are SS, C, and DH. You can essentially eliminate the first two spots because guys who play those positions and can hit just aren’t available, so that leaves just DH for the M’s to balance out the line-up and give them someone who can provide some offense against southpaws.
Of course, as we’ve seen, Safeco isn’t a great place for right-handed sluggers, so you don’t really want the Mariners to throw a lot of money at a bat-only guy who hits from that side. In reality, the M’s probably should be looking to fill third base with a young, right-handed (or switch-hitting) third baseman with some power. That way, they could use the DH on a big slugging lefty who can take advantage of Safeco and provide some thump while also still having the kind of hitter in the line-up that doesn’t let teams just mow through the batting order every time they toss a left-hander out there.
If you keep Figgins, there’s no room for that kind of bat. As we’ve seen every time the M’s face a lefty lately, it’s a problem. You just won’t be able to generate much offense against LHPs with some combination of Figgins, Gutierrez, Smoak, Moore, and shortstop du jour as the right-handed bats in the line-up. The core of this team is missing a guy liike Adrian Beltre, who wasn’t just a good glove at third, but could also hit a good southpaw when they took the hill.
I won’t go so far as to say that signing Figgins was a mistake. The move made sense at the time, given the Mariners needs and the idea that they could make a run at the division title this year. However, circumstances have changed, and Figgins is no longer a great fit this team’s future. As they forge ahead with some young talent that probably needs another year of maturation, the aging veteran with a decent sized contract makes more sense for a team in win now mode than a team building for the future.
If the Braves are willing to take Figgins’ contract, the M’s should let them have him, then reallocate that money and position on a player who better fits what the team is now trying to do. Given the financial situation of most teams in baseball, the deal probably wouldn’t be that easy – the Braves would probably want the M’s to take some money back in order to stay under budget. That may end up being the sticking point.
The only two guys under contract for 2011 that the Braves would be willing to part with are Kenshin Kawakami and Nate McLouth. Given that the M’s are basically set in the outfield, McLouth won’t interest them at all, especially at $6.5 million for next year. Kawakami, though, is a bit more interesting. A starting pitcher who has been displaced by the Braves pitching depth, he’s a lot better than his W/L record would indicate – in two years in the big leagues, he’s posted a 4.57 xFIP, basically making him a league average starting pitcher. He’d take a bit of a hit coming to the AL, but he’d also pick up some value by coming to Safeco Field and pitching in front of the M’s defense.
At $6.7 million for next year, he’s a bit pricey for what he is, but not absurdly so. He could serve as an innings sponge for a team that could use one, helping fill a hole in the rotation that doesn’t have a natural answer for 2011. Given his pitcher type and the environment, there’s a decent chance that he could even become an asset for the organization, a guy they could move next summer as a low cost starting pitcher who had rejuvenated his career in a more friendly environment.
Would I rather pay Kawakami $6.7 million for one year or pay Figgins $26 million for three years? The former, and given the Braves current situation, you might be able to do even better than that. Whether its getting them to kick in some of the money owed to Kawakami for next year or kicking in a mid-level prospect in order to make the deal happen, this is the kind of move that the Mariners should be willing to make.
The Braves could use Figgins more than the Mariners, who should be focusing on future wins and building out their young core more than maximizing their current product. Getting out from under the rest of his deal while bringing in a potentially useful pitcher for 2011 makes too much sense to pass up. This is something that I hope Jack Z seriously explores. Signing Figgins made sense at the time – trading him now makes even more sense.
On Brock And Salk Today
I’ll be on with the guys at 9:35 am today.
Also, my latest post for their blog is now live.
You’re Fired, Probably
If ever you’d care to lose faith in all of humanity all at once — or, at least the middle- to upper-middle class, American portion of humanity — you’d do well simply to point your web browser to nytimes.com, direct your gaze towards the bottom right of the screen there, and behold the most popular articles of the day.
Invariably, your worst fears about the species — that we’re petty, self-obsessed — will be realized. Data show that a full 60-65% of these articles are about which kindergarten will best prepare your unborn child for Harvard; another 20% or so concern the health and beauty habits of French women (spoiler alert: they’re anorexic!); and the remainder are just borderline-pornographic descriptions of something called quinoa.
In short, it’s harrowing.
There are exceptions, though, and one such has occurred this week, as the story of Steve Slater, and his spirited departure from a twenty-year career as a flight attendant, has garnered a great deal of interest from the Times readership and, more generally, the American public.
If you’re not familiar with how Slater took care of bidness, here’s a brief account from the very popular Times article:
After a dispute with a passenger who stood to fetch luggage too soon on a full flight just in from Pittsburgh, Mr. Slater, 38 and a career flight attendant, got on the public-address intercom and let loose a string of invective.
Then, the authorities said, he pulled the lever that activates the emergency-evacuation chute and slid down, making a dramatic exit not only from the plane but, one imagines, also from his airline career.
On his way out the door, he paused to grab a beer from the beverage cart. Then he ran to the employee parking lot and drove off, the authorities said.
If you’re on the Twitters or are a reader of the disgustingly well-written Walkoff Walk, then you’re probably aware of this Giant News Event. Though some old-codger types might balk at Slater’s antics, I think most of us have found ourselves in such a situation as we would gladly inform our bosses, co-workers, customers — anybody, really — where they might stick it and how hard.
Plus, the fact that he had the presence of mind to take a beer with him kinda makes this Slater character an all-star in everybody’s
Slater’s dramatic exit — and the public’s corresponding fascination with it — is relevant to USSM readers not only insofar as it’s totally awesome, but also because the events unfolded on the same day — and, really, almost at the same time (mid-day-ish) — as Don Wakamatsu’s considerably less hysterical and certainly less surprising departure from that great, offensively challenged airplane known as the Seattle Mariners.
I don’t know exactly what’s to be learned from these twin events, but the fact that they occurred almost simultaneously and that both represent instances of someone leaving his place of employment in a conspicuous manner — well, it seems to beg for some kind of comparison.
If anything, probably what we can learn is just how weird baseball managing is in the grand scheme of possible employment. Like, here are some of the jobs that my friends and family currently hold: lawyer, writing instructor, sitcom staff writer, other kind of lawyer, children’s librarian, baseball writer, advertising copy writer, computer programmer, third type of lawyer. (Note to self: meet other people besides lawyers.)
With the exception of the comedy writer, whose job is largely dependent on a network’s decision to pick up the relevant sitcom, all these people have one thing in common: mostly decent job security. In each of these cases, the likelihood of getting fired because of poor performance is pretty close to nil. Any of these people would have to reallyreallyreally eff up in order to be relieved of their duties.
Nor is that to say that this particular sample of the employed is super-good at their respective jobs. I mean, they’re probably all good. But even if they weren’t, it’d probably be easy enough to hide their shortcomings.
In baseball, though, managers are fired all the time. And they have almost no job security. And, because we have no sure way to judge a manager’s actual contribution to wins/losses, he can be fired — usually is fired — for circumstances entirely outside his control.
Consider this list of the thirty current managers, sorted by years as manager of their respective teams.
What jumps out first from this list is that a full six of those men weren’t managers at the beginning of the season. That means, right off the bat, that 20% of the employees from this particular group were fired just this year. Consider, by way of comparison, if Morrison & Foerster (the New York-based law firm known affectionately as MoFo) were to fire 20% of its associates. People would, in the parlance of today’s youth, freak the eff out.
Here’s what else we see: that the average manager can expect about 4.5 years of employment. But even that number is probably on the high side when we consider that (a) we’re rounding all the mid-year hires up and (b) the median number on that list is actually three years.
Three years? That’s crazy.
Let’s try a thought experiment. Say I’m a dude who can offer you a job. And say this job is pretty hot. But here’s the thing about it: you’re probably gonna be fired in 2013.
Would you take it?
If the men who’re employed as major leage managers are any indication, the answer is probably “yes” — because those are essentially the terms to which they’re agreeing when they sign their managerial contracts. Now, of course, there are quite a few managers who’re on their second or third or — in the case of Lou Piniella — five teams, which might skew the numbers upwards. Moreover, if someone’s managed for a major league team, he very likely will catch on at a lower level.
Perhaps it’s for these latter couple reasons that little drama surrounds managerial replacements. With the exception of former Seattle manager Mike Hargrove’s bizarre mid-season departure in 2007 — with the team standing at 45-33 and in the midst of an eight-game winning streak — there’ve been very few memorable managerial departures of late. (And there certainly haven’t been any involving emergency slides.) Perhaps managers know they’ll find employment elsewhere, if in a slightly less glamorous league. Perhaps, because many of them are ex-players, they understand that baseball is a game defined much more by failure than success.
Whatever the case may be, the principal draw of baseball’s managerial positions certainly isn’t job security.
Thanks to Dave Cameron and Zach Sanders for their help with Mike Hargrove info.