The Most Obvious Move Of The Winter
As the season thankfully winds down and we run out of things to say about Felix, it’s about time we start looking ahead to the off-season. This will undoubtedly be a busy winter for the Mariners, as they set out to hire a new manager and build a roster that won’t suck as bad as this one did. Adding to the intrigue is the sheer quantity of young players that are near major league ready or should be at some point in 2011, which both gives the team some depth and also provides reason to be hesitant about filling holes with established major league veterans. The Mariners are probably going to be a pretty young team next year, as they try to find out just what they can expect going forward from the likes of Justin Smoak, Michael Saunders, and Adam Moore, as well as potentially mixing in guys like Dustin Ackley, Michael Pineda, and Dan Cortes.
So, in several positions, we’re not really sure what the Mariners are going to do this winter, as they’ll have to choose between upgrading the roster and creating opportunities for some young players that make up the future of the organization. There is one position, however, where the plan looks to be pretty obvious, at least from my perspective, and that’s the closer role.
David Aardsma racked up his 31st save yesterday, and after giving up a bunch of home runs in the first half of the year, he has his ERA down to 3.44. As a guy who has now converted 69 saves in the last two years, he’s earned the label of proven closer, which still holds value to quite a few teams around the game. However, for teams who don’t want to pay market prices for high leverage relievers, Aardsma will represent a cost-effective option, as his arbitration raise will likely push his salary into the $4 to $4.5 million range. That’s several million less than what closers have been getting in free agency the last few years, and he’ll have the added benefit of being a guy with two years of club control but only one year of commitment, thanks to the arbitration process.
If the Mariners decide to put him on the block this winter, he’ll have some trade value. And, given the expected structure of the club, they’ll almost certainly make him available this winter. It would be crazy not to.
For starters, 2011 doesn’t look like a contending year for the Mariners, given how many young players they’re going to have to break in at once. “Proven Closers” are a luxury that rebuilding teams can’t afford, and that’s likely what the Mariners will be next year. And, while Aardsma will have value to a contender with a budget, that value will likely diminish the longer the team holds onto him. Even if he has a good year in 2011, his payday in arbitration for 2012 will get up into the $7 million range, at which point a lot of teams would rather shop for a better closer in free agency. While the Mariners have two more years of club control on Aardsma, only the next one has any significant surplus value, and so he’s better viewed as a guy going into the last year of his contract.
And, for this team, there’s just no reason to keep a guy who won’t be here in 2012, especially at a position where he will probably be replaced without too many problems. Even with all his pitch selection issues, Brandon League is still an equal or better pitcher than Aardsma, and should be able to handle the closer role in 2011, so the team wouldn’t see a big downgrade in ninth inning performance. In the middle innings, the organization has a host of promising young bullpen arms who could step in and provide value both in the short term and long term. Cortes, especially, provides a lot of the same skills that Aardsma brings to the table, only he’ll do so at the league minimum next year, and has a long term future in Seattle. Giving Aardsma’s roster spot to Cortes would save the Mariners a decent chunk of change without significantly downgrading the bullpen, and would allow the team to evaluate one of their better prospects at the same time.
As we’ve talked about, the M’s won’t have a lot of money to throw around this winter, so saving $4 million by moving Aardsma could create enough payroll flexibility to let them go out and make a move for a guy who can make an impact elsewhere. It’s a good winter to be DH-shopping, and the team could use another reliable starter at the back-end of the rotation as well. Moving Aardsma not only gets you value in what the team could get back for him via trade, but in what the team could acquire with the money that would go to having him on the roster next year. They won’t get anyone’s top prospect for him, but the combined value of the return in trade and the ability to redistribute the cash to other places on the roster make this a no-brainer.
Aardsma’s time in Seattle is almost certainly coming to an end. At some point this winter, the M’s will be presented with an offer for their closer that simply makes too much sense to pass up. It’s the one thing about this off-season that you can essentially take to the bank.
Game 149, Rangers at Mariners
Hunter vs Fister, 1:10 pm.
Two big pitching mismatches went as expected in the first two games, so now we get a match-up of two pretty similar pitchers, as both guys throw strikes with pedestrian stuff and hope that the ball finds a defender. The game will probably be decided by which offense performs better, which oh crap.
Game 148, Rangers at Mariners: Dan Cortes and Justin Smoak Forced to Join Big Club
Vargas vs. Cliff Lee, 6:10pm
Your line-up, courtesy of Shannon Drayer
1: Ichiro
2: Figgins
3: Lopez (DH)
4: Gutierrez
5: Justin Smoak (1b)
6: Bard
7: Tuiasosopo (3B)
8: Saunders
9: Wilson
With their teammates on an exciting 8 hour bus ride from Memphis to Oklahoma City for the AAA Championship, Dan Cortes and Justin Smoak got the call they’d probably been dreading since mid-August. Instead of playing a largely-irrelevant one-off game for the AAA championship, they’re going to head to Seattle to join the Mariners as they slog through the remaining 15 games on the schedule. In exchange for an upgrade to their mode of travel, they’ll spell the likes of Casey Kotchman and Jamey Wright. As Cortes hasn’t played in the majors yet, he’ll likely be the target of pranks played by Brian Sweeney and Sean White. When people talk about what an amazing job pro athletes have, take a moment to consider Dan Cortes.
Cortes has the velocity and big breaking pitch of Brandon League; and like League, he occasionally suffers from bouts of wildness. But his FB may actually be better than League’s (though his breaking ball isn’t as good, Cortes may actually throw his, so it might even out). After converting to the bullpen a few months ago, Cortes has only had a few truly terrible outings (including last Saturday’s PCL Playoff meltdown in Seattle), but he’s got the most pure stuff of any reliever on the M’s 40 man.
This was first reported by Kirby Arnold of the Everett Herald, who didn’t mention if Cortes was crying when he saw him at Safeco. Photo of his delivery here.
Game 147, Rangers at Mariners
Wilson vs Hernandez, 7:10 pm.
Happy Felix Day.
I’m going to miss tonight’s game because my wife is doing a sprint triathlon in the morning, and we have to be up at some ungodly hour to get her to the race for “morning” registration. For the last month or two, missing a Mariners game hasn’t been a big deal – in fact, I’ve intentionally skipped most of them, as this team is basically unwatchable. But, since Felix is pitching, I actually wish I could see this one live.
That’s how good Felix is – he makes the least entertaining team in baseball worth tuning in for. Go Felix. Be awesome.
How Not To Use Park Factors
A few days ago, Baseball Reference updated the park factors they use on their site to include data from 2010. This caused some pretty decent sized changes in some of the stats that they host that are park adjusted, including their version of Wins Above Replacement. Most notably, the addition of the park factor data caused CC Sabathia to overtake Felix Hernandez for the AL lead in their version of pitcher WAR, as they’ve significantly upped the offensive level for New Yankee Stadium and significantly lowered it for Safeco Field. As Sean Forman noted in his post announcing the move, the data indicates that shas “become more of a pitcher’s park”.
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However, when you look at the data for Safeco this year, you’ll see some interesting things.
At home, the Mariners have hit .236/.302/.325, and on the road they’ve hit .232/.294/.352. The plate appearances are almost exactly equal, so we can actually just compare straight up numbers from the M’s offense, home and road.
Singles: +33
Doubles: -6
Triples: +1
Home Runs: -25
Non-HR extra base hits have basically been the same. The team has more singles at home, but fewer home runs. That translates to slightly less offense, but not that much. The offense’s overall production suggests that Safeco has played as a slight pitcher’s park, but not an extreme one.
On the pitching side of things, it’s another story though. Mariner pitchers have held opposing hitters to a .235/.294/.361 line at Safeco, while giving up a .274/.333/.440 mark on the road. Despite facing 140 more batters in Safeco, they’ve given up 32 fewer singles and 21 fewer home runs. The pitching staff has been helped quite a bit by Safeco, which is the main reason that the park is appearing to be an extreme run suppressor. But, remember, Safeco plays very differently for left-handed and right-handed pitchers, and the Mariners built their pitching staff to take advantage of that fact. And, not surprisingly, the vast majority of the difference in performance at home and on the road can be attributed to those lefties.
At Safeco:
Ryan Rowland-Smith: 222 PA, .263 BABIP, 2.25% HR/PA
Jason Vargas: 401 PA, .254 BABIP, 2.00% HR/PA
Luke French: 148 PA, .222 BABIP, 2.70% HR/PA
On Road:
Ryan Rowland-Smith: 261 PA, .344 BABIP, 7.28% HR/PA
Jason Vargas: 333 PA, .287 BABIP, 3.00% HR/PA
Luke French: 146 PA, .272 BABIP, 2.74% HR/PA
Those three are driving almost all of the difference in performance of the M’s pitching staff at home versus on the road. Remember how we said that the team had given up 21 more home runs on the road than at home? Ryan Rowland-Smith has given up 14 more away from Safeco by himself – he is 67 percent of the difference in team home run rate.
The Mariners have intentionally loaded up on soft-tossing flyball lefties because Safeco Field is death to right-handed power hitters, and those pitchers can exploit that difference by letting long fly ball outs get tracked down in the left center field gaps.
Know who can’t do that? Right-handed pitchers. It’s actually pretty easy to hit a ball out to right in Seattle, so left-handed hitters have few problems pulling balls over the wall. That’s why RHPs rarely exhibit home/road splits at Safeco that are anything close to what LHPs offer.
Felix’s home/road splits, by the way? His BABIP is four points LOWER on the road, and his HR/PA is 1.39% at Safeco compared to 1.87% on the road. To translate that into actual numbers based on his PAs, if his home and road HR rates were equal, Felix would have given up an additional two home runs in Safeco this year, going all the way from six to eight.
However, because blanket park factors make no attempt to correct for how differently parks play based on the handedness of the player, we’ll now get to see people making claims about Felix benefiting dramatically from the extreme pitcher’s park that he calls home, ignoring the fact that it is not an extreme pitcher’s park on the days that he takes the hill because he is not left-handed.
The sabermetric community currently uses one-size-fits-all park factors right now only because, to this point, we’ve been too preoccupied with other things to actually put in the time and effort it takes to do them right. In a few years, once we’ve applied component park factors based on handedness to each player’s performance, we’ll look back and laugh at some of the conclusions that using one park factor for every player forced upon us. One of the things we’ll laugh at is the notion that Felix Hernandez got some dramatic benefit from Safeco Field in 2010. He didn’t, and we shouldn’t act like he did.
Redemption And Punishment
This will probably be the last thing I write about Josh Lueke for a while, but after receiving a few compelling emails about the subject and having some conversations with people who don’t follow the team or know anything about his situation, I thought it would be worth having a discussion about. Please, keep the comments civil – I know this is a sensitive topic for a lot of folks.
The details surrounding the incident that Lueke was involved with are awful. Here is the original story from his arrest, and then coverage of his no-contest plea. Regardless of what legal terminology is used, it’s pretty obvious that Lueke did something to a girl that should never happen. We weren’t there, and there’s no way any of us can know exactly what happened that night, but there is little doubt that Lueke’s actions that night were despicable, to say the least. There is no justifying what happened, even without knowing all the details.
So, now, the Mariners have a pitcher in the organization that did something awful. A lot of people, when they find out about what happened, want the Mariners to get rid of him, as they don’t want to be faced with the situation of having to root for a guy who has this kind of history. When we did the poll last week on whether you would root for Lueke as a Mariner, 24 percent of those responding said that they would not. For them, his crime outweighs any help he could offer to the team by pitching well. This is a totally understandable point of view.
However, there’s another level that goes beyond not rooting for the kid, and that’s the belief that the Mariners (and presumably, every other Major League organization) should not be willing to employ him. And that’s a position that I don’t think I can get behind. Lueke spent 42 days in jail due to his actions, and has satisfied the legal punishment laid out by the laws of the land. There are no pending charges against him. He has not gotten in any trouble since the incident occurred. By most accounts, he’s remorseful for what happened, and has gone along with all of the requirements set out by the organization since he was acquired, including mandatory counseling.
The argument that the Mariners should cut ties with Lueke is essentially based on a “one strike and you’re out” policy that offers no chance for redemption. Should a 19-year-olds mistake prevent him from pursuing his chosen career after his legally required debt to society has been paid? I don’t think so. As much as it makes my skin crawl when I think about how I would feel if the victim had been my daughter, I also have to consider how I might feel if Lueke was my son.
I’m sure my (eventual) children will not be perfect, and they’ll make some pretty big mistakes. I hope that, when they do, forgiveness and redemption are offered to them, and that they have a chance to make things right. In no way do I want to minimize what Lueke did, but at the same time, I believe that he should be afforded the opportunity to make a living, just like any other person in America who was not in the public spotlight. I can’t support the notion that one night of horrible decision making should be enough to justify the end of Lueke’s career.
He has paid for his crime, and he will continue to in the days to come. It will follow him around for the rest of his life, and deservedly so. But, I don’t believe that punishment should go so far as to nullify a chance at redemption. Lueke deserves another shot to do better. He’s going to have to live on the thinnest of ice, where any future screw-ups will likely spell the end of his career, but he should get the chance to do so.
I will feel certainly feel conflicted every time he puts on a Mariner uniform. My feelings, however, should not negate his right to pitch in the big leagues.
Brock and Salk segment
I’m doing my regular spot with Brock and Salk at 11:30 today. My post for them will go up tomorrow instead of today as usual, by the way.
I’ll have something up here on USSM later today, but for this morning’s recommended reading, check out Shannon Drayer’s latest post, dealing with the involvement level of the ownership during the last few years. It’s good stuff.
Game 146, Red Sox at Mariners
Buchholz vs Pauley, 3:40 pm.
The M’s play an afternoon game today so that the Red Sox can take off afterwards, and with a match-up of Buchholz versus the Mariners offense, this one shouldn’t take very long. It’d be nice for the M’s to rough up Boston’s young starter and knock him off the list of potential Cy Young vote receivers (he won’t get much support, but he might steal a vote or two that would otherwise go to Felix if he ends the year with an ERA in the low 2s), but I wouldn’t hold your breath.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Branyan, DH
Gutierrez, CF
Kotchman, 1B
Lopez, 3B
Saunders, LF
Moore, C
Woodward, SS
Game 145, Red Sox at Mariners
Matsuzaka vs French, 7:10 pm.
Dice-K is one of the least watchable pitchers in all of baseball. He takes forever, he nibbles at the corners, he throws a ton of pitches – he’s anti-entertainment. And then you have the M’s. Unless you are Luke French’s mother, there has to be something better for you to do tonight.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Branyan, DH
Gutierrez, CF
Kotchman, 1B
Lopez, 3B
Saunders, LF
Moore, C
Josh Wilson, SS
Rainiers versus Memphis: PCL Championship Series Preview
The Rainiers’ run for the PCL Title continues this afternoon in Memphis. Game 1 starts right about now, with Blake Beavan getting the start for Tacoma against Evan MacLane and the Redbirds. You can listen here or follow gameday once it’s posted here.
As with any minor league series, you can only learn so much by looking at the season statistics. The Rainiers starting rotation looks excellent by tRA , but the bulk of that stellar pitching runs above average total is due to the contributions of guys who won’t be playing this series: Luke French, Chris Seddon, Ryan Rowland-Smith and Garrett Olson are in Seattle, while Michael Pineda’s been shut down for the year. Instead, the Rainiers turn to Beavan, Mauricio Robles, Yusmeiro Petit, Ryan Feierabend and Andy Baldwin – none of which were in the rotation when Tacoma was swept by Memphis back in May.
Memphis’ rotation looks average by tRA (or RA for that matter), but it’s got a considerable edge in experience and polish. Evan MacLane’s a PCL vet who’s pitched well against Tacoma, and Brandon Dickson’s a lanky righthanded ground-baller with good command. The top two starters are Lance Lynn, a 2008 draft pick out of Ole Miss, and PJ Walters, a veteran who’s seen time with St. Louis this year and 2009. Walters is something of an enigma, as he’s gotten great results and racked up lots of strikeouts without much of an outpitch. He’s got Fister-esque velocity from the right side, and reports on his off-speed pitches tended to be mixed. He apparently has a good change-up (and unlike Fister, he uses it), and that’s helped him post solid K% and K/BB numbers in AAA. Lynn’s a guy with a 90-91MPH fastball that can outpitch his repertoire, as he did to close out Oklahoma City in the PCL semifinal series – Lynn struck out 16 in 7IP. Still, his stats this year aren’t eye-popping, and as much as some praise his competitiveness, I’m not sure Memphis is the clear favorite in his game 4 start versus Ryan Feierabend.
Why? Memphis has a number of hitters with somewhat pronounced splits. 1B Mark Hamilton is essentially Bryan LaHair – he’s death on a stick to righties (1.100 OPS this year), but he’s lost against lefties (.577 OPS this year). Ruben Gotay isn’t a whole lot better – he had a .50 point wOBA split in the majors, and his OPS splits this year in AAA look similar. The righties on the team – led by OF Allen Craig – have much more even splits. If Mauricio Robles has decent command, he could excel against this team.
In general, the Rainiers have an advantage at the plate, with a much better team wOBA and much more power, which is only partially offset by Memphis’ contact edge. Halman, Mangini and Brad Nelson were all on the team in May, but Dustin Ackley, Justin Smoak, David Winfree and Tug Hulett weren’t (they replaced average-to-below-average hitters from Tommy Everidge to Ezequiel Carrara to Ramon Vasquez). The Rainiers have the advantage at CF, 2B, SS and possibly 1B (Smoak and Hamilton have the same problem), it’s a push at 3B and RF, so the only real positional advantage for the Redbirds is LF. Catcher’s a bit unsettled, but I suppose we’ll be nice and give the nod to Memphis.
The bullpen’s tough to call, but I’m tempted to give the advantage to Tacoma. Cortes/Lueke/Patterson is a formidable trio at this level, and if they have command, they’re lights out. Memphis had a great closer this year in Fernando Salas, but he’s been called up. Their ‘pen includes some solid AAAA/MLB journeymen types, and that can be useful – just as Tacoma prospered early in the year with a rotation made up of experienced journeymen like David Pauley and Luke French. But not many teams in baseball (and certainly not the Mariners) have the kind of potential in their bullpen that Tacoma does. The Cardinals did send AA closer Adam Reifer to Memphis before the PCL semis, and he’s a legitimate prospect, but he’s not on the level of Cortes or Lueke.
In a neutral setting, I’d be tempted to give the edge to Tacoma, but I think it’s going to be tough for the Rainiers to win 3 times in Memphis. They’ll need to hit HRs, and they’ll need very good outings from Beavan and Robles.
Match-ups and preview from Mike Curto here and the TNT here. BBREF team pages for Tacoma and Memphis.