DH Candidates
I decided to save the second-baseman-we-could-trade for a larger post next week, since there will be some crossover with guys who could fill the backup SS/utility infielder role. If the Mariners don’t like any of the cheap free agent second baseman, it’s likely they may look to the trade market to fill both of the 2B and UT holes, and they’ll be buying from the same market, so we’ll just look at that all at once.
So, today, we focus on the boppers. The Mariners are probably going to make a run at some kind of offensive upgrade this winter, and as we’ve discussed, DH is really the only line-up spot where they can do that. Especially if they go with cheap stop-gaps at second base and in the rotation, they’ll have some money to spend on a guy who can hit the ball over the wall. The problem will be that, as a pretty obvious rebuilding team, they’re not going to be very high on the list of destinations for many free agents, especially the older guys who are looking to land with a contender and have already made a lot of money. Jim Thome would probably love hitting in Safeco Field, but I doubt he wants to spend his age 41 season on a team that will be projected to finish in the cellar by just about everyone.
And, by nature, most DHs are older. It’s a position generally stocked by guys at the end of their careers who can’t play the field anymore. So, that presents another dilemma – should the team really be spending a decent amount of its budget on a guy who is on his last legs? Yes, the offense needs improving, but if the team isn’t going to win the World Series next year, they probably shouldn’t spend $7 or $8 million on a guy in his late-30s anyway, as that money would have to come from the pool that could potentially be invested into players who would actually be productive in 2012 and beyond.
So, we’re basically throwing out guys who might be on their last contract. They’ll probably want to play elsewhere anyway, and it doesn’t make sense for the M’s to use a lot of resources on a guy who may not be an active player in 12 months. We’re also going to eliminate all right-handed hitters from the search, because bringing in a bat-first guy who will get killed by Safeco doesn’t really accomplish anything. Oh, and as we mentioned in the last piece, the organization probably can’t afford to have the DH be only a DH if they’re going to carry Milton Bradley – they’ll need him to be able to fake it, at least, at first base or in left field, to give them necessary roster flexibility.
Using those filters, we can say goodbye to the following possibilities, for the most part: Jason Giambi, Troy Glaus, Paul Konerko, David Ortiz, Jim Thome, Magglio Ordonez, Vladimir Guerrero, Johnny Damon, Manny Ramirez
Suddenly, a deep group of available hitters looks a lot smaller. Let’s take a look at some of the possibilities.
Adam Dunn, Free Agent
Let’s just get this one out of the way – he’s the longest of long shots to fill this spot. He’s stated his distaste for DH’ing before, and if he had his druthers, he’d stay in the National League. He’s said the right things about being open to being a DH, as his agent certainly wants him too have as many bidders as possible, but it’s not something that he really wants to do, and odds are pretty good that he’s not going to want to do it for a last place team. Given that teams like the White Sox are known to be going after him, there’s little chance that he’ll end up signing a contract in the team’s budget anyway. He’s available, and he fits the mold of what the team is looking for in some ways, but he’s probably not going to be the guy they end up with.
Prince Fielder, Milwaukee
I threw water on these rumors a few weeks ago, arguing that his $15+ million salary in 2010 and desire for a huge, long term extension priced him out of the Mariners plans. However, after I wrote that post, I had a couple of people in the game tell me that they think the Brewers will be aggressive in trying to move Fielder this winter, and that they’ll work with teams who might not be able to afford him to get them into the bidding. It sounds like they realize that there won’t be a huge market for Fielder this winter if they don’t create one, so while they’re not going to pick up any of his 2011 salary, they might be amenable to taking back some salary in a deal that got them the pitching they were looking for. I’d still say its a longshot, but the odds might be a couple of points higher than I thought they were when I wrote that post.
Carlos Pena, Free Agent
Once a guy who figured to be way out of the team’s price range, Pena’s ridiculously bad September (.122/.258/.232) and ugly showing against Cliff Lee could be driving his price down significantly. He has the kind of offensive skillset that the Mariners would like – patience, power, and relative youth – but he’s also a pretty decent defender at first base, and it’s unlikely that he would want to relegate himself to being a DH at this point in his career. The M’s could offer him a chance to split time at first with Justin Smoak, but that’s probably not going to be that enticing either. I’d expect Pena to land with a club that needs a first baseman, and right now, that’s not the Mariners.
Aubrey Huff, Free Agent
Huff is the walking definition of an enigma. His wOBA by year since 2004: .365, .315, .346, .337, .387, .297, .388. There’s a couple of really bad years, a couple of mediocre years, and a couple of great years in there. And that was during his prime. Now, headed for age 34, he’s probably on the downside of his career, except that he just had the best season of his life. He upped his walk rate by 50 percent without striking out any more than he did in 2009, and the left-handed power is still there. He’s young enough that a multi-year contract isn’t out of the question, but would the Mariners want to take commit several years to a guy who was below replacement level in 2009? I’d imagine the Giants will probably try to re-sign him as well, so they’d have to outbid a winning team where he’s comfortable in order to get him. He’s an option, but there are hurdles here.
Lance Berkman, Free Agent
If the Mariners are going to sign an older guy, this would be the one I’d be the most in favor of. Yes, he’ll be 35 next year and struggled with the Yankees, but he’s still got some good baseball left in him. A switch-hitter with one of the most patient approaches in MLB, the question is how his power will hold up as he ages. He had trouble driving the ball this year after a wrist injury, but that shouldn’t linger into 2010. Prior to this year, he’d posted a wOBA of .383 or higher in every single season of his career, since his brief debut in 1999. He’s a legitimate offensive force, and he’s still mobile enough to play first base when necessary.
The problem will be location. He negotiated a full no-trade clause into his contract with the Astros because he’s a Texas guy who values being close to his home. There was some talk that he was planning on going back to the Astros this winter, but they did trade for Brett Wallace and have talked about moving Carlos Lee to first base, so that might not be an option. The Rangers, however, have a gaping hole at first base and will have money to spend this winter, so if they show interest, Berkman probably won’t choose Seattle. If the Rangers pass, for whatever reason, he could be a really good fit though. His numbers and age will keep him from getting a huge paycheck, so he’ll be in the M’s range in terms of salary, and he could reasonably be a good hitter for several more years. The key would be convincing him to sign here – if they could do that, he’d be a good guy to target.
Luke Scott, Baltimore
A guy I’ve been advocating for quite a while, the M’s probably missed their chance to acquire the O’s slugger. Given how well he finished the 2010 season, Baltimore will be inclined to keep their best hitter, even as a second year arbitration eligible guy. They can afford to give him a raise to the $6 or $7 million range, so they don’t need to trade him this winter. Odds are they’ll keep him for the start of 2011, let him crush some more home runs in the first few months of the season and shop him around this summer at the deadline.
Hideki Matsui, Free Agent
Now we start to get into the pool of guys who just aren’t all that great, and don’t represent the kind of upgrade that the team is looking for, and would generally just be a waste of money. I’d throw Adam LaRoche, Lyle Overbay, and Russ Branyan into this mix as well. They’re all average at best players with some real limitations, and if the Mariners were just going to go with a guy who would be a decent-but-not-great hitter, I’d rather see them give an unproven kid a shot. I just don’t see much point in paying money to have any of these guys around for one year. They won’t make the team that much better, and there’s basically no upside with any of them. Pass.
Brad Hawpe, Free Agent
If the team can’t get any of their higher priced targets to come here, Hawpe could be an interesting flyer. After years of productive offense (along with putrid defense) in Colorado, he just fell apart this year, hitting .245/.338/.419. For an epically bad defender, that’s just not going to cut it, and that’s why he got released this summer. He didn’t hit after catching on in Tampa Bay either, so he’ll be looking for any team that is willing to give him a chance to get his career back on track this winter. He’s not in the position to be choosy, and if the Mariners offered him a low base salary with incentives and a chance for 600 plate appearances, it would probably be the best offer he’d get all winter.
He’s not an elite hitter, but it seems unlikely that all of his offensive skills evaporated at age 31. Interestingly, he’s not a classic pull-power lefty, as only 40 percent of his career home runs have been hit to right field. He’s shown power to all fields before, and while his numbers are inflated by Coors Field, there are reasons to think that he could be a good hitter again. He’d come with more risk and less upside than a guy like Berkman, but he’d be significantly cheaper and is more likely to sign here. He wouldn’t be my top candidate, but I’d make sure he knew I was interested before he took a deal from someone else.
Dan Johnson, Tampa Bay
I threw his name out there a couple of weeks as the kind of guy that I’d like to see the Mariners give a shot to, though he’s basically a stand-in representation for any number of older minor league sluggers who haven’t gotten a real shot at a full-time job. The M’s basically went this route with Russ Branyan a couple of years ago and it worked well, but I get the sense that they might not be willing to do so again. The team is willing to admit that they’re rebuilding only to a point, and they’ve repeatedly avoided going with a full fledged young roster that would lead to low expectations and lower attendance. The casual fan is going to be looking for some kind of big offensive acquisition this winter, and Dan Johnson won’t be what they’re looking for.
While I think there’s a baseball argument to be made for using the position to try to find a guy who might be here for several years at a low cost, there’s also a legitimate business argument to be made that the team needs to put a decent product on the field next year or risk alienating a portion of the fan base that can be hard to win back. A few years ago, I probably would have dismissed that reasoning, but declining attendance is a legitimate concern, especially since the team continues to tie payroll to number of people who come to the games. With jobs on the line and some angry customers to appease, hesitation in going with another “trust me on this one” type of guy is valid. Besides, Tampa Bay won’t want to just give Johnson away, so you’d have to give up some kind of asset to take that risk in the first place. I can see why spending money on a bigger name guy is more appealing.
That’s not an exhaustive list, as there are other guys who could become available throughout the winter, but hopefully it gives you some idea of what the team will be looking at this winter. There’s a couple of guys in the high rent district that they can’t afford, a couple of middle age guys who might be fits if they wanted to play in Seattle, and some low cost flyers that the team might have to settle for if they can’t land a bigger name.
Not to mention the bane of SSSs……
I like the Berkman idea a lot. But what I’d really like to know is what everyone thinks one of these so called stupid moves would look like. Would Adam Dunn on a 5/90 deal be stupid? Because if the Mariners offered it I would guarantee that is a contract he would sign.
Small sample size?
Personally, I do not find the list that depressing. I would be happy with several of the names, so long as they don’t cost us a 2nd round draft pick.
The M’s clearly need to upgrade the offense generated by the DH spot. However, upgrading one position will not have nearly as big of an impact as the improvement that needs to come from the five or six positions that are already filled:
1B – Smoak
2B – Ackley (at some point)
3B – Figgins
LF – Saunders (probably)
CF – Gutierrez; and
C – Moore (maybe).
Realistically, if the M’s offense is going to improve significantly, the group above will have to provide the improvement.
Berkman scares me… I don’t like thinking this way but he’s displaying some very sure signs of losing his power. ISO down steadily the last three years, HR/FB down steadily the last three yeras, LD% going down the last three years, BABIP down but not significant enough to explain power loss.
If it is just a wrist injury, how likely is it that he’ll recover and restore everything he lost? Don’t wrist injuries nag and persist?
Berkman is my choice, flat out, but I’m just wary.
I tried looking up some players’ numbers at Safeco, and could only find ESPN’s recent 3 year splits.
From the guys in Dave’s list, (I didn’t check everybody but) Matsui had good numbers at Safeco (OPS around1.100), and also among guys rejected by Dave’s filter, I checked Vlad and he indeed had an OPS around 1.100 at Safeco.
But we really already missed the boat on Vlad, he’s probably too expensive now. Sucks that we also missed the boat on Frank Thomas’s comeback year a few years ago.
The M’s miss too many boats when it comes to hitters.
I’m not disagreeing with the rest of your statement – but some amount of improvement will probably come simply by not filling that DH hole with guys whose cumulative OBP is below .270, whether they’re big boppers or not…
One thing they might try is doing a platoon with Matt Mangini and some righty with a big platoon split.
You know, that could mean that any one of these candidates could do that…..bad season or not….
I guess I disagree about the economics. There are minor exceptions (the Seahawks when they were owned by the Nordstroms being the main one) in Seattle sports history to this maxim: winning teams draw, losing teams draw flies. The Sonics sold out the season when they were good and attendance dropped when they started missing the playoffs. The M’s correlation between attendance and winning is pretty strong. The Seahawks went from years of a waiting list for season tickets to none at all when they stank, and sold out Qwest for years when they were good. Husky football tickets used to be left in wills; under Ty Willingham they were left on doorsteps like zucchini from backyard gardens.
Other than maybe Manny or Vlad, who among the potential DHs is really going to make someone change their mind from “Doug Fister is pitching, I wonder who will be eliminated on American Idol” to “Doug Fister is pitching, but the M’s have X at DH, so I’m going to drive down to Safeco for the game”? People will want to see Felix pitch, they will want to see Pineda when he comes up, and that’s about it. If Ackley hit .500 his first week up, he’d become a quick legend and a draw. The difference between Aubrey Huff and Dan Johnson won’t make a material difference to M’s attendance. Make the best baseball decision and live with it. Regression to the mean is our friend in 2011 anyway.
Not really, he kinda faded late in the season this year, and seemed hobbled. Has to have hurt his value.
Trading for Luke Scott is what I’d like to see, as he wouldn’t necessarily be a rental, we could keep him around. Question is what do we have that the O’s would want? They are not going to take our castoff junk for basically their best hitter.
Hawpe and Pena both seem like guys who might sign cheap and/or incentive laden one-year deals and hope to prove they aren’t done after terrible 2010 seasons. I’d gladly take either of them.
Pena is probably the more NAME player but I’d lean toward Hawpe, who was pretty good as long as you keep him out of the field.
I fully agree. We shouldn’t give a shit about the marketing side.
And taking into account such fizzle fazzle led to the geniuses in the Mariner FO trying to acquire “hometown boys” or clean cut players who usually played like unmitigated crap.
Yeah, that marketing angle sure was a great success, wasn’t it?
Those fuckers need to stay out of baseball decisions. Just stay busy marketing the real superstars that we have in Ichiro and Felix. That’s all they should be doing. When the team starts winning more, the fans will come back in droves. we got Ichiro et. al to thank that so many turned up as it is to watch this year’s crap.
Also, no more Jack Z favorites, please! Whenever some unnecessary (and unmerited!) angle gets added, things are more likely to fail.
Just acquire a guy who looks likely to produce (i.e., HIT at Safeco!!!!). Thinking about other peripheral shit is what sent us up this creek in the first place.
This is kinda depressing. To improve one of the worst-hitting teams in history, we can upgrade at two positions — second and DH. But we should get a bench player for second so that Ackley can slide in eventually, and we will get a second-tier DH because the best ones won’t want to play here.
Other than that, we play mostly the same guys and hope they hit better. Not very encouraging.
This is the lineup I would like to see most next year;
Vs. LHP
1.RF Ichiro
2.3B Figgins
3.DH Berkman
4.1B Smoak
5.LF Bradley
6.CF Gutierrez
7.SS Uribe
8.C Moore
9.2B Ackley
Vs. RHP
1.RF Ichiro
2.3B Figgins
3.DH Berkman
4.1B Smoak
5.2B Ackley
6.CF Gutierrez
7.LF Saunders
8.SS Uribe
9.C Moore
On paper that lineup is leaps and bounds better than the one the M’s put out this year and for only 5-7 million in payroll increase and possibly 10-12 adding and innings eating veteran. Give Berkman, Uribe and an innings eater guaranteed 2 year deals and all could be had. Lets get er done.
Looking at Berkman’s plate discipline numbers, what stands out to me is that he is still making really good contact, but might actually be taking too many pitches. While his O-Swing% was well below average at 20.9% (Avg. = 29.3%) his Z-Swing% was the lowest of his career at 66.4%. He also saw fewer pitches in the strike zone than average, and well below his usual rate at 44.4%.
So he wasn’t getting as many pitches in the Zone and the ones he did get, he wasn’t swinging at enough. Maybe his drop in power is just due to not taking cuts at the good pitches as often. The high contact rate and good plate discipline make him look like a guy who might return to form just by going back to swinging at good pitches in the zone like he used to.
The Mariners can get a Dunn, VMart, Berkman or Luke Scott. As long as they are willing to overpay.
Unfortunately, I think we’ve seen that Bradley’s body won’t hold up when he’s asked to play the field.
Plus, there’s no point to relegate Saunders to a platoon role in 2011. The Mariners have to find out exactly what they have in him (just like the other young guys), and this next year is the perfect time to do so – it’s not as if they’re going to contend.
The time to think about platooning him (or using him as trade bait) is 2012, if/when they’re actually trying to win the division – IF at that point they feel they’ve seen enough to determine he’s not worth playing against lefties.
Any possibility of a 3 or 4 way trade where we flip Aardsma/Vargas/Figgins/etc. into the prospects Milwakee would want for Fielder? I know hoping for Aardsma to turn into Fileder to turn into prospects is a long hope, but it seems a little more likely than getting Fielder with waht we have to offer straight up. Also any chance we go with a Bradley/Halman platoon? That probably wouldn’t improve DH at all, but Halman seems to be able to hit a dinger now and again, and with that ability plus his defense, he seems like a pretty good 4th outfielder. It’s a tricky offseason, I’m intrigued to see what route the M’s go with
Like Dave indicated in his post, Milwaukee is not negotiating with much leverage in the case of Fielder. Also, there is money coming off the books next year, so if ownership raises the payroll a little (not alot like some are suggesting) they have the resources to sign him to an extension.
I know we all have gotten used to the idea of Smoak being our everyday first baseman. But he could be a barganing chip at that point. It is not like his glove is that much better then Fielders.
I am not advocating any of this. I am just saying… this is not out of the realm of possiblilty.
Have any of you read the comments by Macha last week regarding Fielder and Braun? He was nice about it, but he said that he spoke to Braun only a few times during the year because Braun had his own way of doing things and talking to him didn’t matter.
His remarks about Fielder were even worse. He said he never spoke to Fielder during the year but a few times and he said he didn’t think any of his teammates did either. He said he kept to himself and he wasn’t sure if that was on orders from Boras or if it was because of the pressure of a new contract. He eluded to the fact that he was not a team player and not a great teammate. He didn’t say he was a bad guy, just not a leader. Do we really want a guy like that? I am not looking for choir boys, but we don’t headcases either.
Vargas is a league average pitcher and Figgins is being overpaid. Besides which, if we got prospects worth Prince Fielder would we really want to trade them?
Miguel Cairo-you don’t get more proven then that guy….
The M’s will at least try to get Fielder. Not sure they can, but they will be a player, no doubt. The connection that Jack and McNamara have with Fielder is strong, and they know they need to make a big move to show they can acquire offense.
“McNamara recommended with all his heart and soul that the Brewers select Fielder with their first pick in the 2002 draft. He told his bosses to ignore the critics and skeptics. Fielder, he said, was the best high school player he had seen and was convinced he would become a star.”
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/nl/brewers/2007-07-02-brewers-fielder_N.htm
sorry, I took a little break from USSM a couple weeks ago and didn’t realize there was already a post about the Fielder/front office connections.
Why would Berkman or Huff come to Seattle?
The only way to get a decent DH bat from the FA market is for the M’s to open their wallets and increase the payroll, not going to happen. The M’s would have to convince guys they are going all in. They would have to overpay for guys and bring in a whole group like Konerko, Martinez/Buck and Hardy to make this team worth while.
No cheap DH option is going to come to Seattle on a one year deal plus maybe an option to try and restore their FA value in 2012. It’s not going to happen.
If the M’s were able to get someone off that list? It would probably be someone like Haupe and he would come in here and nearly ruin what’s left of his career. I don’t see a guy like him thinking Seattle is a realistic choice.
It doesnt make any sense to add a one year wonder for DH at this point. This team needs flexibility as was quite obvious this season. Unless the player filling the role of DH can provide other benefits such as playing a couple other positions good, the Mariners dont need him. If you can say that Bradley, Lopez and Wilson are gone from this roster AND ownership was willing to suck up the price difference THEN a Berkman is worthwhile.
Personally, I would like to see a 3rd baseman at the same time and leave Figgins at 2nd for a good part of season as I dont want to see him revert to the early season results again. Plus that might get a second solid hitter on this team. Oh wait this sounds awful close to the Beltre/Sexson will get us over the top idea…I take it back – Let the young guys play!!!!!!
I still like the Scott idea, but this is my new one. Flip Aardsma, maybe one of our starters, and some decent prospects to Cincy for Votto. Make him the 1B, Smoak can be our DH, and can spell 1B once or twice a week. Done and done.
I gotta admit…the “ideas” for trades and “flips” are pretty damn amusing….
Dave writes:
Sure it does. Unless the M’s have re-written their budgeting rules, the M’s should throw as much money as they can on a 1-year DH contract, because it’s not going to make a difference in 2011. Maybe Berkman or Thome would listen if the M’s will pay top dollar. Sure, it’s not a great $/WAR ratio, but who cares? The M’s aren’t saving the money for the following year.
As for Bradley, I’d rather the M’s treat him as the sunk cost he is. They should get the best DH they can buy, and determine whether Bradley or a AAAA league-minimum super-sub is going to be the best fit after that. Isn’t it better for them to have a good DH and a decent defensive reserve than to have one marginal DH and one marginal DH/1B type? If Bradley’s done, release him.
OK, here is who we MUST get as our SS next year:
Hiroyuki Nakajima!!
He is coming to MLB via posting system.
I have been watching him on a regular basis for over two years now, and he is a stud.
Many people consider him as one of japans top3 hitters.
Very fluid smooth defense.
Strong arm.
He WILL hit somewhere around .285-.320
WE NEED THIS GUY!!! Only 28yrs old..
I mean… I can bet my mercedez that he will be waaaay more productive than the Wilsons Bros…
He will add the much needed “spark” to this team.. both offensive and defensively.
Also.. if we can get our hands on Darvish or Iwakuma.. they are for real too.
BUT NAKAJIMA IS THE MISSING PIECE TO THIS AWFUL DREADFUL TEAM!!
You guys might not believe me.. but you’ll see once he gets here… where ever he plays.. im just hopin he will be wearing a mariner jersey come 2011…
PLEASE Z!!!
Agree, if the price is low Jack should sign this guy, Jack and Josh are awful
Yes..get him signed!!!
Also, earlier there was mention of turning Smoak into a DH. Got to believe that would destroy much of his value to the team. Playing a position fulltime AND hitting make him what they traded for.
At some point you have got to quit switching pieces unless you are sure they are past their prime or should be on the bench. It is scary thinking that this team might have LF, 2nd, 1st and C all filled with fulltime 1st and 2nd year players but that just means the bench will become very important for the long haul.
Really though how many more runs would the Mariners needed to have scored this season to have been in competition. A 100?? What we have could probably do that by just having okay seasons of .250. 200 runs shouldnt be that hard with someone driving in Ichiro and Figgins more often!!! You get the young SS and then Berkman will look pretty nice as a DH.
Get it done Jack!!!
A few Hiroyuki Nakajima links.
Wikipedia
Baseball Cube Stats
Pictures from the WBC
If, if , if, if, if.
Just to throw it out there, what about a platoon DH where both DH’s are capable of playing another position. For instance, maybe Dan Johnson as LH DH and backup 1B and Pat Burrell (or somebody similar) as RH DH and backup LF.