What They’re Improving On
One of the popular comments made in response to the suggested offseason plan is that the team looks a lot like last year’s, and last year’s team was terrible. People see the same names and associate equality in production from one year to the next, which is one of the biggest mistakes made in projecting future performance. For reference, here is what the Mariners got in Wins Above Replacement, by position, in 2010, and where that ranked in MLB.
Catcher: 0.1 (30th)
First Base: -1.4 (30th)
Second Base: 0.6 (24th)
Shortstop: -0.3 (27th)
Third Base: -0.4 (29th)
Left Field: -0.5 (29th)
Center Field: +2.2 (24th)
Right Field: +4.8 (10th)
Designated Hitter: -0.2 (11th)
Starting Pitchers: +13.4 (17th)
Relief Pitchers: -0.4 (29th)
Yes, you’re reading that correctly. The Mariners got below replacement level production out of 1B, SS, 3B, LF, DH, and the bullpen. Catcher produced one RUN above replacement, while second base came in just slightly better than that. Truly, the only positions on the team last year that performed any better than what you could have expected from a Triple-A callup were CF, RF, and 4/5 of the starting rotation.
Nick Punto is an upgrade over what the team got last year. Hell, Willie Bloomquist is an upgrade over what the team got last year from most of the roster. Don’t fall into the trap of thinking that similar names equals similar production. By any reasonable projection system, the Mariners will improve by quite a bit next year, even if they don’t make major upgrades this winter. There is just no way they’re going to get those kind of below replacement level seasons from that many positions again.
Yeah, I think the focus on names (Nick Punto) has obscured the ideas Dave had:
– add depth in the middle infield, because what’s there isn’t going to cut it
– add a veteran catcher, because we need depth there too
– add a bat who isn’t strictly a DH, but who can play some at other positions
– add a reasonable starter to add depth in the rotation
– sign a couple veterans to bolster the bullpen
– dump Lopez, trade Aardsma to help get the salary to accomplish the above
– don’t do contracts longer than two years
– keep within last year’s salary budgets and don’t assume any additional checkbook
With all that in mind, yeah, I see the right moves giving you a ~.500 team, without either crippling you in 2012 financially or blocking kids (Ackley, Franklin and so on). (To be honest, I think you could have made a lot of these same moves during the 2009-2010 offseason, and it’s unfortunate that the M’s didn’t do them then, but hindsight being 20/20 and all…)
I remember back in 2002 & 2003 that we fans were pissed at the Mariners for not making the moves to make it into the playoffs. Even Lou was upset with mid season decisions; however, we had a team that was winning consistently and on the fringe of making the playoffs. Unfortunately we wanted more and NOW so we held on to players too long and tried to buy the rest in the off season. Final result was a prolonged shitty team with moments (2009) where we think they are getting it together. Until I see enough of the quality core of this team being from the Mariners system, I wont believe there will be anything sustained. Right now you have Ichiro and Hernandez as your core. If most of Smoak, Saunders, Moore, Vargas, Fister and Ackley turn out to be part of that core in 2011 then 2012 looks good for the start of a run at the playoffs for several years. Any piece added as a starter should be looked at for the future OR as a bench player for short term. I see Punto only as a bench player but too young to keep short term so why waste the slot. I am with many here and think it is time to let the youth play and add a few backups to keep them fresh. As much youth as will be playing, the bench will need to be good and versatile. Unless Bradley has a come back player of the year season, he will be the Griffey of 2011!!!!
Any piece added as a starter should be looked at for the future OR as a bench player for short term. I see Punto only as a bench player but too young to keep short term so why waste the slot. I am with many here and think it is time to let the youth play and add a few backups to keep them fresh.
The Mariners do not have anyone who is a good young player capable of contributing in 2011 to play SS (Nick Franklin’s not ready yet). Their options are Jack Wilson, who’s provided nothing of value in his performance in over a year as a Mariner, and who has shown a clear decline in ability to stay in a lineup over the last several years (averaging about half a season of play the last 3 years), and Josh Wilson, who’s a replacement-level player and isn’t particularly young (he’ll be 30 when the 2011 season opens).
You have to play a shortstop. You don’t get to go “well, since we don’t have anyone who’s young who would be good at the position and we can’t trade for Troy Tulowitzki, we’ll just skip putting one out there”. Is your choice really to play the same crappy players who were completely inadequate to the task last year? Or are you willing to accept that SOME improvement is better than NO improvement?
In a couple of my entries, I have made it relatively clear that I advocate for Ackley to start the season on the Major league roster and I dont see the Mariners getting rid of Jack Wilson.
Based on that and what you just said I concede having a good defensive backup may justify spending the money on Punto. It just seems like there could be a little more bat out there somewhere so when a replacement at SS comes in we dont go from bad bat to no bat!!