The Middle Infield
If there’s been a story to come out of Spring Training so far, it’s probably been Eric Wedge‘s comments about opening up the shortstop job for competition, with Brendan Ryan expected to see time there and Jack Wilson to get some work at second base. Could we be seeing another Figgins-Lopez scenario where the team switches two players between the positions they were expected to play?
I don’t think so, and in the end, I don’t think any of this means anything. The reality is that the Mariners don’t really have two starting middle infielders, and they probably won’t all year. They intentionally built a three man rotation that gives them some depth and flexibility, and while those three names might not stay the same all year, I’d expect the allocation of playing time will follow a similar pattern.
Jack Wilson and Brendan Ryan will share time at shortstop. Wilson isn’t an everyday player – we all know that. No team in their right mind would go into the season planning on Wilson playing more than 120 or 130 games, and that’s a best case scenario. With his nagging injuries, Wilson’s going to need frequent days off, and Ryan will play shortstop on the days that Wilson sits. Given this inevitability, it’s natural for Ryan to get reps at shortstop this spring. It would be weird if they didn’t play him there.
At second base, Ryan will likely split time with Adam Kennedy to start the year. Kennedy gives the team a left-handed bat that they can slide into the line-up and a capable defender at second base. When Ryan shifts over to shortstop, or when they want another LH bat in the line-up, they’ll put Kennedy in at second base. Those three will share two jobs, giving Eric Wedge some ability to play with match-ups and keep Wilson off the field regularly.
It also sets them up for the expected summer transition. Sometime in June, Dustin Ackley will pass the expected threshold for Super-Two status, and the team will be able to call him up (if he’s performing well in Tacoma) without worrying about escalating his paychecks too quickly. At that point, they’ll have a couple of options. If Jack Wilson is playing well and has re-established some trade value, they’ll be able to move him to a contender, save some cash, maybe get a prospect, and create playing time for Ackley. Ryan would slide into the everyday shortstop role at that point, with Ackley taking over most of the second base duties. Kennedy would become more of a reserve than a part of a job share.
Alternately, if Wilson is doing his continued impression of an old man, and the M’s find that there isn’t much of a market for his services, they could jettison Kennedy in order to promote Ackley, make Ryan the full-time shortstop, and move Wilson into a reserve SS/2B role. Ryan and Ackley are the two guys with a future in the organization, so if the team gets to a buiilding-for-2012 point in June or July, Wilson will likely either be traded or see his role reduced in order to accommodate more playing time for the other two. In that role, it would help if Wilson could play second base if need be, which is likely why he’s getting work there this spring.
The alignments we’re seeing don’t appear to me to be the signs of any real change in thought on how the situation will be handled. Instead, it simply seems like the logical way to prepare several players to share two jobs. As long as the organization is working on building up Jack Wilson’s trade value, moving him permanently to second base would be a poor idea, as it would signal to other teams that they felt his range had been reduced. Teams are far more frequently in the market for shortstops (a position where talent is in short supply) than second baseman, so swapping Ryan and Wilson would mostly serve to downgrade the team’s ability to get something for Wilson this summer. I just don’t think we’ll see the club go with Ryan at shortstop and Wilson at second very often, and overall, I don’t think this is really all that newsworthy.
But, hey, it’s February and they’re just stretching, so this is what we get for now.
Makes sense to me. I’m kind of surprised that the team is a week into spring training and nobody has been hurt yet.
Ryan is legitimately a starting SS. The only thing that figures to limit his playing time is the presence of Jack Wilson. Clearly, the M’s foresee giving the job to Ryan at some point in the near future.
I completely agree that it’s very unlikely we’ll see Wilson starting at 2B. I think 2B is likely to be, more or less, a straight platoon, at least until Ackley’s arrival.
Agreed. Also, him getting reps at second base could enhance his value slightly as long as he remains primarily a shortstop and fields as well as he has in the past, giving him value to teams looking for some flexibility. I say that based on a vague memory of someone (seems like something Jeff Sullivan would dig up) writing that Jack Wilson literally has not played an inning at 2B in his entire pro career, so showing a little familiarity there with stuff like turning a DP from the other side could be valuable.
The fact that the Mariners plan to give the job to Ryan does not make him a legitimate starting SS, unless you think last year that Josh Wilson was a legitimate starting SS. Ryan has the POTENTIAL to be a legitimate starting shortstop, but right now, he has not hit well enough to justify that claim, which is why he was available for a A-ball project and is being replaced by a career UT (albeit a pretty good one) in STL.
Dave,
IF Jack stays healthy and productive, where do you see him possibly traded to, and who do you think would be coming back in return?
When Tejada doesn’t work out for the Giants, maybe they will make a play for him.
Josh Wilson has -1.2 WAR for his career and has never posted a positive WAR. Ryan has 5.0 WAR over the equivalent of 2.5 seasons and has never posted a negative WAR.
I have to somewhat disagree with the premise here. I disagree that Jack Wilson will have any trade value regardless of how he performs in the first few months of the season thus negating the “build up his value” mantra. Ryan is the long term SS so he should play there. Best case scenario the M’s either get out of some money with Jack Wilson or get a D level prospect—neither an appealing option. Wilson’s ceiling is a .250 hitter with no power/plate discipline with good SS defense. If we can get someone to take the rest of his contract I would be shocked, let alone get a prospect as well in return.
As fans we will likely never know the absolute truth – but the speculation I’ve read indicates the only reason Ryan was available was LaRussa didn’t appreciate what he perceived as a lack of work ethic on Ryan’s part.
I really don’t see how you can compare Paperboy’s numbers with Ryan’s. Not only is Brendan a significantly better defender, he’s also got mad mustache skillz.
He’ll fit right in, then.
Hopefully Ryan will be a bigger contributor to the Mariners than most of those guys (Felix excluded). 😉
I wasn’t comparing Ryan to Josh Wilson talent-wise. He was a handy example of my point that just because someone is given a job as a starting major league SS, does not make them a legit MLB starting SS.
He was a handy example of my point that just because someone is given a job as a starting major league SS, does not make them a legit MLB starting SS.
Right, but Brendan Ryan is a poor example of your point. That’s because, as was mentioned above:
Ryan has 5.0 WAR over the equivalent of 2.5 seasons and has never posted a negative WAR.
In other words, Brendan Ryan is a legit starting SS (2.0 WAR per season = average MLB starting position player).
Yes, I know, he doesn’t hit well. Do we need to go through the argument that expecting most, or even some shortstops to hit like Prince Fielder (or even Troy Tulowitzki) is unreasonable, and there’s a reason why good-hitting shortstops command insane premiums in salary and talent in trade?
There’s close to zero chance the Mariners will be able to get anything of value for Jack Wilson, an overpaid, injury-prone middle infielder with no pop. Defense-first middle infielders are under every rock at AA and AAA, and they cost nothing.
Defense-first middle infielders are under every rock at AA and AAA, and they cost nothing.
You know what? This statement is completely false.
Advanced statistics tell us that about a quarter of MLB teams got less than 1 WAR out of their shortstops in 2010. This is true of 2009 as well.
Really, if decent AAA shortstops who were capable of contributing a win or more on defense and were neutral-ish on offense were THAT easy to come by, why would the Mariners have played Josh Wilson last year?
The bottom line is IF Jack Wilson went back to being a 1.5-2.0 WAR player, he’d have value. That’s not to say he will.
To put this another way: there were four major league teams where their shortstops graded out as a league-average hitter last year: the Marlins, Dodgers, Rockies and Blue Jays. Four. Out of thirty. So 26 teams had “middle infielders with no pop” playing for them.
Again, can everyone stop thinking that shortstops have to hit like A-Rod? Please?
So basically the Mariners should pull out their large item pickups and AAAA fodder while they trade for HanRam or TTulo?
Can we get Mauer and Longoria while we’re at it?
I just figure since we’re playing Fantasy baseball Mariners edition…
Duh….chicks dig the long ball….we need a big bat…duh…
This is reminding me of the discussion we had all winter.
Despite all the enthusiasm for advanced statistics around here, maybe we don’t understand them and the distribution of skills among major league players as well as we think we do? (and I certainly am not excepting myself from that statement–I hadn’t realized just how light offense is among shortstops….)
I wonder if part of the issue with perception regarding shortstops is that, not all that long ago, it DID suddenly seem like big-bat shortstops were under every rock. A-Rod, Jeter, and Nomar all came up about the same time. I remember reading articles talking about how the position had changed, and how all-glove shortstops were just not going to cut it anymore.
Of course that was all nonsense – looking back, it really was just a big blip. People who hit like A-Rod and Jeter aren’t in abundance at ANY position, let alone at short. But perceptions, once formed, are hard to undo – at least that’s been my personal experience.
I think you misread the point which was that there were only 4 major league teams with above average bats at the shortstop position last year, thus invalidating the claim that Brendan Ryan cannot be a starting shortstop because of his below average offense.
Nope, just being sarcastic and mocking the casual fan. What I really wanted to do was highlight and bring extra attention to the fact that it’s not even 4 teams because 2 of those are MVP-types. I agree with you and I’m glad you pointed out how rare a solid bat up the middle is.