Game 43: Angels at Mariners
Day game after a night game means that Gutierrez gets a rest and Michael Saunders gets the unenviable task of facing Dan Haren.
The M’s trot out a lefty-heavy line-up, but Haren’s been impressive against lefties this year – he’s cut his walk rate against southpaws to below 5%, and his K rate is safely above 20%. This is a sample of only 164 plate appearances, but these stats stabilize quickly. Good luck, Peguero!
With the early start, it’s not surprising to see Chris Gimenez get the nod at catcher, but this will be the third straight Fister start that Gimenez catches. Gimenez has thrown out the same number of runners on the basepaths (3) as Miguel Olivo, in almost 240 fewer innings.
1: Ichiro
2: Figgins
3: Smoak
4: Cust
5: Kennedy
6: Rodriguez
7: Peguero
8: Gimenez
9: Saunders
SP: Fister
Immediate Expectations For Ackley
My newest post is up at Brock and Salk’s blog, and it deals with how quickly we can expect Dustin Ackley to become a good Major League hitter. I’ll be on the air with the 710 ESPN guys at 9:30 am to talk about Ackley and the M’s.
Here are the first few paragraphs of the new piece – you can read the rest at their blog.
You’ve probably heard that Dustin Ackley is on fire down in Tacoma. After a tough April, Ackley is hitting .377/.482/.638 in May, and an even more impressive .463/.540/.707 in his last 10 games. He’s dominating Pacific Coast League pitchers, and it won’t be long before the Mariners give him a chance to show what he can do in the big leagues.
Given all the busted prospects the M’s have had over the last few years and the continuing struggles of most of the young hitters on the roster right now, I wouldn’t blame you for exercising a little skepticism about what Ackley might be able to do over the rest of the season. A lot of players tear up the minors only to face a reality check once they get to the big leagues, and gaudy numbers in Triple-A do not always translate to immediate success.
However, there are reasons to believe that Ackley may not experience the same growing pains the Mariners have had to endure with the likes of Michael Saunders, Jeff Clement, and Wladimir Balentien. Unlike the other three, Ackley succeeds using high level hand-eye coordination that makes up for a lack of big time power. While he has six home runs for the Rainiers already, he’s never going to be much of a slugger, and his value at the plate will come by racking up singles, doubles, and walks.
Over the last 20 years, players with this kind of high walk, low strikeout approaches have often made seamless transition to the Major Leagues. In 164 at-bats for Tacoma, Ackley has drawn 33 walks and struck out just 25 times. Here’s how a few other similar hitters have fared in that category before getting promoted:
Game 42, Angels At Mariners
Vargas vs Weaver, 7:10 PM.
Franklin Gutierrez returns to the team and immediately goes back to center field and the #5 spot in the line-up. Wedge recognizes that even a rehabbing Gutierrez is better than a healthy Miguel Olivo.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 3B
Smoak, 1B
Cust, DH
Gutierrez, CF
Kennedy, 2B
Olivo, C
Peguero, LF
Rodriguez, SS
Minor League Wrap (5/9-15/11)
Abbreviated stuff. I’m still in NYC and probably won’t have time to respond to comments promptly, but hey, there’s the usual pitcher/hitter/transaction stuff, and a few random notes as I have seen fit. As stated before, the next wrap will be off-schedule as well. Also, we signed a Cuban left-hander last week, and I know at least a few things about him.
To the jump!
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Franklin Gutierrez is back
The Mariners activated Franklin Gutierrez tonight, and sent RHP Tom Wilhelmsen to AA Jackson to get some work in the rotation. Wilhelmsen worked as a starter last year for A Clinton before moving to the pen in the Arizona Fall League.
Gutierrez has played fairly well for AAA Tacoma in a de facto spring training assignment. He hasn’t played a ton of CF; he frequently gave way to a replacement late in games, and played several games as the designated hitter. Still, with Michael Saunders in deep freeze at the plate, the M’s obviously thought the time was right to bring Guti up.
This won’t fix the M’s defensive woes by itself, but it certainly helps an anemic offense and a surprisingly poor defense. I think expectations should be limited for a while, but he’s still a far sight better than Saunders.
Game 41, Twins At Mariners
Hernandez vs Liriano, 7:10 pm.
Happy Felix Day!
A year ago, this would have been a fantastic match-up, but right now, Francisco Liriano is a shell of what he was. He’s not throwing strikes, he’s not getting strikeouts, and he’s been one of the worst pitchers in the American League. There’s talent there, but if the M’s let him get himself in trouble, he probably will. Patience is a virtue tonight.
Also, Geoff Baker suggests that Dustin Ackley is not coming up tomorrow. While he doesn’t have any direct quotes from team officials, he’s in a position to have someone in the front office tell him this directly without putting it on the record, and he has better access to information than I do, so take his report with more credence than what I was told this afternoon.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 3B
Smoak, 1B
Olivo, C
Cust, DH
J. Wilson, 2B
M. Wilson, LF
Ryan, SS
Saunders, CF
Ackley Coming Up “Soon” – Maybe Tomorrow
Yesterday, Jack Zduriencik went on KJR with Mitch Levy and said that Dustin Ackley would be up “sooner than later”. Ackley then proceeded to hit a home run on the first pitch of the Rainiers game today and added a couple of singles as well, giving him another three hit day and continuing his torrid run through the PCL of late. This afternoon, I was told that soon could equal tomorrow, as the organization is apparently considering promoting Ackley to the roster after tonight’s game.
Now, I want to make sure this is all spelled out; It wasn’t Jack who told me this, so the information could be wrong. He also didn’t say that they were definitely calling him up – the way it was described to me is that they were going to talk about whether he should come up tomorrow. The Rainiers have an off-day to travel back from New Orleans, and so from a logistical standpoint, there are reasons to do it tomorrow. The team probably would prefer he debut at home to a warm reception, and may rather call him up while he’s scorching hot rather than waiting a few weeks and having a potentially cooled off Ackley make his debut with a little less confidence.
They might decide to just leave him down for a few more weeks in order to get past the presumed deadline for Super Two status, but I was told that wasn’t much of a consideration because most people in baseball don’t think the Super Two statute will still exist by the time Ackley would be eligible for it. It’s a part of the arbitration rules that no one really likes, and it could easily be abolished in the next collective bargaining agreement – the current version expires in December.
The team has already crossed the threshold of service time where Ackley is guaranteed to be under team control through 2017, so they would not lose him to free agency a year early by calling him up now. They do risk the possibility that he ends up qualifying for arbitration after 2013, which could escalate his salaries fairly quickly, but if they believe that Super Two status won’t exist in a few years, than there wouldn’t be any financial harm in calling him up now.
As for who would go away to make room for him, my guess would be Luis Rodriguez. Despite my fondness for the little guy, his line right now is just .173/.279/.308, and there’s a pretty good chance he’d make it through waivers. The M’s could probably flip-flop those two without having to give up any organizational depth or make a call on a Jack Wilson trade right away.
Obviously, we’ll find out tomorrow. I don’t know that the team will call Ackley up, but it’s apparently being talked about. It’s obvious that he’ll be up soon – the only question is whether soon is tomorrow or a few weeks from now.
Game 40, Twins At Mariners, For Real This Time
Pineda vs Baker, 7:10 pm.
The solution to rainouts? Change cities and play under a roof. We’ll actually have some baseball tonight after a couple of impromptu days off. Once again, Eric Wedge has said that he won’t use Brandon League as his closer tonight, wanting to give him a day off. The fact that everyone just had two is apparently not a factor. I’ll officially call that weird.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 3B
Smoak, 1B
Cust, DH
Olivo, C
Kennedy, 2B
Peguero, LF
Rodriguez, SS
Saunders, CF
The Encouraging Start Of Dustin Ackley
When April ended, Dustin Ackley’s season line for Tacoma read as .211/.336/.305, and the skeptics came out of the woodwork. His slender frame makes it easy to explain poor performances as simply the product of a guy who doesn’t hit the ball all that hard, so even pointing out that his line was driven by a crazy low BABIP wouldn’t satisfy them.
Thankfully, Ackley has responded with a monstrous May performance – after yesterday’s four hit game in New Orleans, his line for the month is now at .344/.453/.590. That said, a rebound in BABIP and a small power spike over two weeks shouldn’t be enough to shift opinions on his timetable or his eventual ceiling, and just as the April concern was misguided and premature, so too would be calling for his promotion based on an even smaller sample of success.
However, there is one area where Ackley is showing real improvement, and it’s something that should be quite encouraging to the Mariners – his ability to hit left-handed pitching. Ackley struggled against southpaws in college and in his professional debut last year, showing little to no power and essentially hoping for a walk to get on base. This year, however, he’s doing quite well against LHPs, with a line of .256/.434/.436. He’s still drawing a ton of walks as usual, but he’s also showing a bit of power, as five of his 10 hits against southpaws have gone for extra bases.
Being able to handle lefties was one of the main things he needed to work on down in Tacoma this year (along with his defense at second base), and the fact that he’s showing progress in that area is great news for the M’s. Ackley’s never going to hit for the kind of power that will make him a masher against right-handed pitcher, so he can’t really afford to post a huge platoon split. He has the swing and the plate coverage to be the kind of hitter who can succeed against same-handed pitchers, but he just hadn’t done it up until this year.
We’re still only talking about 50 plate appearances, but he’s doing things against southpaws that he hasn’t done before. That’s a pretty good sign for the future, and gives more reason for optimism that he might be able to make an immediate impact once he comes up from Tacoma.
Game 40, Mariners At Indians, Round 2
Pineda vs Tomlin, 10:05 am (maybe).
If the rain holds out, then Michael Pineda will take the hill against a team that gave him some pretty big problems in spring training. The Indians can run a bunch of left-handed bats out there in a row, so today could be a good test for him – if they play.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 3B
Smoak, 1B
Cust, DH
Olivo, C
Peguero, LF
Ryan, SS
Saunders, CF
Wilson, 2B