A Few Words On Mike Carp
Mike Carp just hit another home run for Tacoma, his 17th of the season. Now, before you get too excited, you should probably know that it came off Bobby Kielty. Yes, the outfielder; he was on the mound because the game was a blow-out and Tucson was conserving their pitching staff. So, yeah, maybe don’t get too excited about that home run. Still, Carp did go 2-4 with a walk before launching the homer off a non-pitcher, and his average is now up to .341, so I’m sure the calls for Carp to be promoted will only continue to get louder this week.
However, before you buy your ticket for the Mike Carp bandwagon, I just want to throw this out there:
2010: 8.9% BB%, 22.7% K%, .259 ISO
2011: 8.1% BB%, 20.2% K%, .293 ISO
While Carp is showing a bit more power this year, the vast majority of improvement in his line for Tacoma a year ago and his line this year is in his BABIP, which is significantly less predictive than the core metrics above. After posting a .259 BABIP last year (probably a bit below his true talent level), Carp is at .359 this year, almost certainly above his true talent mark. Slow power hitters usually post marks a bit below the Major League average, which is currently sitting at around .290 – if you were going to project Carp’s BABIP upon getting called up, you’d likely have him somewhere in that range, and that would cause all of his rate stats (BA/OBP/SLG) to tumble quite a bit from their current lofty heights.
Of course, if Carp actually could sustain the near-.300 ISO he’s putting up now, his BABIP wouldn’t matter much, as he’d basically be Ryan Howard. However, playing in the PCL is certainly helping Carp put up these nutso power numbers, and Carp hasn’t exactly come up and hit moon shots in his two prior stints in the big leagues. Maybe he’s made some changes and added some real thump, but in general, betting on big power spikes from guys in the PCL is a fool’s errand. For example, Carp is currently being outhit by Bryan LaHair; these parks can make scrubs look good.
Given that Carp is almost certainly a pretty bad defensive outfielder, and that his offensive surge is based around a lot of balls not being caught by opposing defenders, I understand the Mariners reticence to call him up. I’m not opposing a call-up, necessarily, as Carlos Peguero is not a Major League player and Mike Carp might be, but I do think that some perspective is needed when looking at Carp’s gaudy numbers.
The M’s may get to a point where they agree that Carp has just forced their hand, and they give him an audition in left field. His performance since the beginning of May certainly makes him hard to ignore. However, I don’t see much evidence that Carp has suddenly transformed as a hitter, and I wouldn’t expect an offensive monster if he does get called up. He might be better than Peguero, but that’s not saying much, and I don’t think the team should view him as the answer to their left field problems.
We all know that Carp and Peguero are bad fielders, but how do you think they compare in left? Is one likely to be appreciably worse than the other?
Carp is pretty much just organizational depth.
Halman > Mike Wilson > Carp > Peguero
I love BABIP, it explains so much.
Who’s numbers were better in Tacoma, Peguero or Carp?
I completely understand that the AAA numbers won’t exactly transfer to the big leagues, so who was doing better while in Tacoma? Assuming Carp is just as good(bad?) as Peguero in LF, do his AAA offensive numbers back his case to now get his turn, with Peguero struggling besides his home run power.
We just need to maximize our team with what we’ve got. If that means Carp over Peguero, though it may not be much, it’s still getting all we can.
GO MARINERS!
Anyone can hit home runs in AAA – even Condor hit one tonight!
(I’m kidding, mostly – I’d still like to see Saunders somehow figure it all out, even though I’m not necessarily expecting it anymore)
Dave-
Do you have any opinions of WHY the Mariners continue to use Peguero ahead of Mike Wilson, Mike Carp, Greg Halman, Michael Saunders, basically EVERY other choice we have for LF? Both in the field and at the plate he’s looked a little “in over his head” at times, yet he still seems to be choice #1.
I admit that I like him, for no real reason I can explain, and definitely NOT because I think he’s the most talented guy we can stick out in LF.
Any idea why the Mariners seem so obviously keen on him?
Using First Inning’s numbers Carp had a .262 BABIP last season but still managed a .255 / .328 / .512 batting line with 29 dingers. As you pointed out, this is also with his walk rate and strike out rate staying mostly the same.
If we assume he’s going to post something more in the .280 range of a BABIP, that would mean he’d still be performing well. A .270 / .340 / .530 ish line isn’t exactly below average performing. I’m not disagreeing that his current season is based on a heck of a lot of flukes, but there may be more here than a simple regression problem.
Naturally I’d feel better about his high BABIP if he was hitting more line drives (he isn’t), but there’s still an awful lot of power showing up here. Isn’t he two years into the “new approach” that he was rumored to be working on, sacrificing patience for more contact (or something)? Could be seeing some fruits of that labor.
I certainly don’t think Carp’s numbers are sustainable, especially in the big leagues.
Why I keep beating the drum, though, is that he’s still only 24 and it won’t hurt anything to find out.
If the M’s somehow keep this insane winning up for another couple weeks, and Carp keeps hitting while Peguero stays Peguero, I just think they should give it a whirl.
You’ve seen what he can do. The power is intoxicating. With Peguero and Carp you have two guys who should be mixing it up more at the DH position than the field, but there’s also the Cust factor. Maybe they’re loath to ping-pong these kids back and forth to Tacoma because there’s only one position open between the five of them (Halman, Peguero, Carp, Wilson, Saunders). If Cust weren’t around, they could give them a lot more playing time.
If they plan to bring Carp up, now is the time, while he’s peaking and confident. If they don’t, they are basically saying he has no future here. Maybe he doesn’t. I think Carp has earned one more chance. Unless they are shopping him or they think Peguero’s the answer, they should call him up.
Won’t even try to argue that one. Agree completely.
Who would Carp replace on the roster? Ackley is gonna get the call-up first and I’d guess he replaces Mike Wilson if Jack Wilson doesn’t get the heave ho. Carp would swap with… Jeff Gray?
I think one of the reasons why they still have Peguero out there is that he continues to look less like a moron when he gets to the plate. No I do not have numbers other than the observation that in a few weeks he’s gone from looking like a complete idiot at breaking stuff, to looking dumb swinging at it, to fouling them off and sometimes hitting them. Peguero, like it or not, seems to be improving, albeit he is NOT a major leaguer yet but I think the fact that he continues to show improvement and the the enticement of all that power is kind of tough to put him back down, even though he does need some seasoning.
One more note though. If this truly is a rebuilding year, why not try and see what these B and C level prospects who are having monster years can do? If we can find a place to place Carp every other day, let’s bring him up. I’m glad we have Halman up here as well as having our fun with Peguero and I wish that they would give Cust more breaks to give Mike Wilson ABs. I mean sometimes these type of guys actually translate their success in the high minors even without a great skillset, just by effort and really good coaching. I mean, what do we have to lose?
I believe this is what we’re seeing, actually.
Are we going to see more Halman in LF than Peguero for a couple days? I know he won’t keep hitting like he did today, but it would be nice to see what he can do too. Even slipping on the warning track a couple times, I would like to see if he takes better routes, anb gets better reads off the hitters. Right now it can’t hurt for a bit, and it give us a better idea of what we have. We need to be able to rest Guti when he needs it, but I would like to see Halman get more than just that duty. Play him everyday until he plays out of the spot.
Westy, I agree but I hope we get to see Carp as part of this. I guess I’m being greedy and wanting to see as many of our prospects up and playing as possible. 🙂
One thing I noticed was that 2 of Halman’s 3 hits against the Rays came from breaking balls. They were hangers that you could practically hear begging Halman “Hit me 400 feet and make it hurt.”…but he couldn’t even hit those last year.
Is there any, any chance that the guy has gotten the light bulb to turn on? Right now, I know it’s SSST. But breaking pitches recognition and ability to hit them are really just about the only two things keeping the dude from being a productive big leaguer.
In my uninformed, shooting-from-the-hip opinion, which I don’t much care if anyone debunks, Carp remains in Tacoma to polish his stats so that the Mariners can use him as a trade chip should the need arise.
Carp has no place here. There’s no one whom he might replace that would constitute an improvement. Peguero is bad enough in LF without running Carp out there.
If Carp was hitting Branyan moon shots, that might be one thing. But he doesn’t have that kind of power, and likely never will. I wonder if Luis Jimenez might not be a better overall LH hitting prospect, even at age 29.
There is no, repeat, no “hole” in LF. That hole is filled, as Churchill has suggested, when Ackley arrives, and either Peguero is sent down or Mike Wilson is outrighted.
Halman at least can cover ground, and has a cannon for an arm. He becomes the new Langerhans, a four-tool player without the contact. There are plenty worse.
The notion that sticking Ackley in LF for now will “retard his development as a 2B” IMO is nonsense. His position is hitter. Does anyone seriously imagine that Ackley would remain at 2B if a better glove man emerged who could hit well enough to earn his keep? Do you want a bat like that one takeout slide away from knee surgery? I don’t.
Ackley can continue to take reps at 2B and play 2B in winter ball if they are serious about this, if another suitable LF arrives between now and 2012.
IMO this is still the rebuilding year that most of us envisioned at the outset. There just aren’t enough Miguel Olivo 3-run jacks to make this team a contender. I continue to think they should be sellers at the deadline. I’d be looking to ship Bedard to the Yankees for Austin Romine, after trying once again to stick them up for Montero as an opening ploy. Carp could well be a chip in such a deal.
The reason that Peguero is going to be given every opportunity is because he has the type of raw power that will make a team overlook deficiencies in other areas. He’s definitely a work-in-progress but he’s also a potential 30+ HR guy if he ever develops a clue at the plate and a power-starved team like the M’s is willing to live with some growing pains for now. To his credit, Peguero has made some adjustments and has looked better over the past week, so the M’s will probably let him play himself out of the lineup before sending him down to Tacoma.
I think Carp has earned the opportunity to get a look as a potential DH for the M’s going forward. Cust is 32 and his power is on the wane so he’s not a long-term solution. I’m not saying Carp should replace Cust as the everyday DH but they should try to find him enough ABs to gauge whether he might have a future with the M’s as a DH.
I think Jack Z has made it fairly clear that the organization has no intention of playing Ackley anywhere but 2B. Maybe circumstances will cause them to change their mind but for now I’ll Jack at his word.
It might be clear to you, but it’s not to me. I thought Jack’s statement was actually pretty cryptic, and that he left plenty of wiggle room, as any smart GM would do.
I understand the rationale behind converting Ackley to 2B. But if Seattle stays in the race and Kennedy continues to hit, it makes no sense to move him off 2B to LF and insert Ackley at 2B, thus weakening two positions defensively. Kennedy is not Jack Hannahan, whose glove fit anywhere. He hasn’t been a plus defender at any other position.
If Seattle falls out of contention and writes off the season, then fine, stick Ackley at 2B and be done with it. Until such time, they’re rolling the dice with this move. Putting Ackley in LF upon callup is the best way to get his bat into the lineup without giving up players for another LF or sacrificing defense.
Kennedy is 35, and good as he has been so far this season, he isn’t the future. Chances are we are seeing his last hurrah. He’ll be gone soon enough, and then the Ackley to 2B program can commence. Until such time, they should be getting the most they can from him.
I’ve been wishing, and wanting, and hoping that we stay in “rebuild” mode for the past couple weeks, ’cause we could make some really nice moves with how well some of these vets have been playing (pitching), combined with how many teams are in contention as we get nearer the deadline… It’s gonna be a seller’s market.
But fact of the matter is– only 4 teams have more wins in the American League, and we’re 2.5 games out in both the Wild Card AND our Division. Basically, I think we’re contenders until we play ourselves out of it– otherwise a) you lose the fans, who are just NOW starting to attach themselves to this team again, and b) worse possibly, you lose the PLAYERS, who have worked their asses off to overachieve.
Until that situation changes (or Cust or Smoak get injured) I think Carp is out of luck this season.
(Plus, I STILL think they want him in AAA, padding his stats, so they can move him as part of a trade– he just doesn’t have a position on the Major League roster here. Unlike Wak, I don’t think Wedge is interested in carrying TWO Designated Hitters.)
A couple of points:
1. If PCL stats have no applicability to MLB performance, why bother having a farm system?
2. Why is Carp a known non-MLB player after 103 PA’s, but at 500+PA’s, posters were still calling for more from a steadily worsening Michael Saunders and didn’t give up on him until he had 600?
3. LF is the easiest defensive position in baseball, but the worst hitting team in baseball can’t find AB’s for one of the best hitting prospects in AAA? Thank God we got Cleveland to take Asdrubal Cabrera off our hands – sure, his .306/.357/.539 for a .896 OPS with 11 dingers looks good, but imagine the humiliation of trotting his stone-handed minus 0.5 dWar out there.
Forgot one point: Why is it that Ackley’s .294/.407/.487 for a .896 OPS with 7 Taters and suspect defense makes him the future of the franchise, but Carp’s .341..402/.636 for a 1.038 OPS with 17 Dingers and suspect defense just prove what a chump he really is?
So I see exactly what Dave is saying in the BABIP. But I do think that Carp has earned one more shot in the majors. He has had all of 91ABs in the majors. We can say that minor league stats are not going to make you a all star MLB level player, but it is not the justifying reason to not give him a shot.
I mean I understand the Halman call up completely and I hope he finally has it “click”. But how many times did…one who shall not be named…trade away players that we have never put on our Big League team and give them a shot before writing them off as just minor league prospects.
I do also understand how there really isn’t a place for him on this team position wise because his only MLB position is probably 1st Base or DH but we have Smoak, and well unfortuneatly Cust….
Bring Carp up. Send Mike Wilson down to get ABs cause this isn’t good for his progress by getting one or two days a week….
If Cust needs a break, get Carp in there, and then maybe Cust trips walking down the stairs to the clubhouse and we get to see Carp with a real shot. Then if he sucks or doesn’t project, we get to have Kennedy and Ackley both play with Peguero and Halman in Left.
In my uninformed, shooting-from-the-hip opinion, which I don’t much care if anyone debunks, Carp remains in Tacoma to polish his stats so that the Mariners can use him as a trade chip should the need arise.
I am extremely skeptical Carp has any notable trade value, but stranger things have happened. I’m even more skeptical keeping him out of the majors has much of anything to do with that one way or another. The message “despite his great numbers and our massive gaping offensive holes, we won’t give him a chance!” doesn’t inspire confidence.
I don’t think anyone believes that Carp’s current BA of .341 is realistic or sustainable but his HR numbers have been pretty consistent over the past two seasons. He now has 46 HRs over his last 626 ABs so this isn’t a sudden power surge from him. I’m not sure how that would project into the majors but I’m pretty sure it would be more than the two that Cust has hit this season.
This is a really stupid question.
The idea that WE have a harder time figuring out who has legit talent vs. who is just inflating stats with the PCL’s weakness doesn’t mean that others can’t. In this case, the scouts and coaches know more about the talent of the players they have than we do. Part of the reason Dave is derisive of Carp’s season is that the scouts haven’t been high on what he’s done. They’re impressed with the results, but results do not dictate talent or skill. It’s the other way around.
As Dave is pointing out, there is reason to be skeptical of Carp’s results thus far, as his talent and skill say that he shouldn’t be doing this. Likewise, an inflated number of balls in play finding holes instead of fielders is a huge red flag that there is something amiss. As *I* pointed out above, I think Carp’s overall line with a more league average BABIP would still make him a fine hitter, but not this monster we’re seeing at all.
Same answer as before: talent. Saunders is a highly athletic and toolsy player. His talent, overall, is superior to Carp’s. Not only that, but Saunders has little difficulty playing well in key defensive positions such as corner outfield or center field, whereas Carp is a man without a position (much like Mike Morse was years ago). Carp is a first baseman or DH, at his optimal defensive value.
It is disappointing that Saunders has failed to turn his talent into major league quality skills so far with the bat, as his speed has been useful in baserunning and his defense has been useful with run prevention. One more aspect and he’s an all around excellent player. Carp will basically bring only one good attribute to the game: hitting. And, that’s assuming that he actually has the true talent level necessary to hit as well as he has to justify his being a DH type player.
Not in SafeCo it isn’t. With the way SafeCo Field’s dimensions work, left and center fields have the largest areas to cover while right field has the smallest. A left fielder in SafeCo, optimally, would be someone who could at least spell a center fielder from time to time.
Once again, results do not dictate talent. Carp is not “one of the best hitting prospects in AAA”. He’s a prospect who’s having one of the best hitting seasons amongst AAA prospects. It’s not the same thing.
Since this has nothing to do with anything, I’m going to ignore it as frustrated fan dumbassery.
T.A.L.E.N.T.
Thanks Fan. I think I get it now: talent, or, perhaps, T.A.L.E.N.T., just is and doesn’t need to produce any results and results are inferior indicators which are in no way reflective of talent.
He can’t be worse than Peguero in LF and he won’t strike out as much.
If Carp is worse than Peguero defensively then it would be a bad move to call him up. If he’s not going to get regular play it would also be a bad idea.
Why is Mike Wilson even up with the Mariners right now? Player has extremely hot streak. Player gets called up. Player plays extremely limited and spread apart games. Player loses hot streak. I can see the exact same thing happening with Carp. Let him continue to tear it up in AAA and then use him as a potential trade piece.
GripS-
I actually like the sort of “protocol” I see in the system now.
Whereas in previous years it felt like the manager was at the mercy of whatever the GM and Ownership wanted to see on the field (or the fans) it actually looks like a “belief system” has been put in place now– rather than just lip service to that effect.
Z acquires talent, and assesses it with the minor league system (and not just by “whose got the best stats”)…
Management and the minor leagues provide the big league roster with what they presume to be the most talented guys.
Wedge then uses that talent in the way he sees will best maximize our opportunities as they arise.
There seems to actually be checks and balances along the way now.
I’m okay with that– given the results so far.
Carp’s best chance may be org depth at 1B/DH.
Cust probably won’t be a Mariner in 2012.
Paul B-
I completely agree. If somehow Carp keeps this up he steps into Cust’s role next year. I don’t think there is a need to panic about getting him in the lineup ASAP.
(unless it means that Figgins is removed from the lineup, of course)