Game 79, Braves At Mariners
Bedard vs Beachy, 7:10 pm.
The M’s face one of my favorite pitchers in baseball tonight, but the Braves offense has been scuffling nearly as much as the M’s offense has, so either team could take a 2-1 victory in this match-up.
Unfortunately, even though the M’s get the DH back tonight, they’re not really using it, as Adam Kennedy has shifted to DH with Chone Figgins back in the line-up at third base tonight. For all intents and purposes, this means that the M’s are choosing Figgins to DH instead of Jack Cust, which is just… just release Cust at this point. Eric Wedge obviously has zero interest in using him, and there’s no point keeping a DH in reserve. He can’t pinch run, can’t act as a defensive replacement, and Wedge doesn’t like using him as a pinch-hitter due to his propensity to strikeout. If they’re not going to use him, at least use the roster spot. Bring back Mike Wilson so you’ll have a right-handed DH option against southpaws – that’s a better option that just having Cust sit around and watch baseball games.
Ichiro, RF
Ryan, SS
Kennedy, DH
Smoak, 1B
Ackley, 2B
Olivo, C
Carp, LF
Gutierrez, CF
Figgins, 3B
Comments
184 Responses to “Game 79, Braves At Mariners”
Mr Z:
If he had a few more BB in June, I might agree with you. His BABIP is 70 points higher in June than it was in May, too, which is why is BA is higher.
I’m not sure the fewer K’s is sustainable (if indeed it is a real event and not just SSS) since it doesn’t seem to be accompanied by an increase in BB. If Wedge keeps playing him, we’ll see in July if his K rate goes down or if it regresses.
You aren’t really saying that IBB indicates better pitch recognition?
Wedge has never described being “aggressive” with swinging at bad pitches. Ackley swung at 2 good pitches and then let the last pitch an inch off the corner go by for strike 3. Borderline pitch. Pitcher got the call. It happens. Smoak and Olivo swung at breaking pitches in the dirt. That wasn’t Wedge’s fault. Aggressive within the strike zone is the phrase I have heard Wedge mention. Every coach at every level says the same thing, too.
WKRP in Cin-ci-naati!
Nice Les Nessman reference.
I still can’t decide if you’re serious in suggesting trading Felix…
I’m not.
I am against the idea of “we don’t care how this season ends as long as we play lots of kids, some of which might really turn out for us”. Arguing for a trade of Felix is taking that line of thought to a logical conclusion.
Because if you don’t care what the W-L record is, there is no point in having high-priced players on your roster when you can cash in a superstar for a group of talented kids.
If anything, throwing the season IMPROVES your chances at rebuilding. You get to draft higher, and drafting higher has a very big impact on the talent you get. The difference between #1 and #10 in the draft is a lot of WAR, historically.
This is ignoring the damage you do to the value of the franchise and the fan base… and that damage which is why I don’t buy the argument that “well, it’s a rebuilding year, we don’t care about playing the best players for THIS year as long as we play the kids”, because that damage is real, and being a GM means you are managing a franchise’s value. Your job is not just to optimize how many good young players you have. There’s more to it than that. No, you take advantage of every opportunity you can, because as the 2002-2003 Mariners taught us and the Indians or Athletics of recent years also illustrate (remember when they were the poster child for good management?), being a good team for even a couple years is NO guarantee you get a lot of years out of it.
We need a LF and DH (two of the easier positions to fill) and our 3B to produce (or be replaced too).
Go look at our LF’ers since Griffey got to the majors. Go look at our DHs since Edgar retired. And you can’t blame this all on incompetent management.
Finding quality hitters isn’t as easy as you think. And this task is not going to be helped if the MLB field manager is a huge fan of hackers.
Paul B-
Of course not saying IBB has anything to do with pitch recognition…
But it does have to do with his value– it’s not an out. That’s all. It’s two more positive plate appearances than in May.
Walks don’t equal better pitch recognition except for the upper third of guys, anyways. Pitchers have as much to do with it for everyone else.
As God is my witness, I thought turkeys could fly.
And I though Chai Chai Rodrigweez was a real person.
Look at his K/BB ratio.
Look at K/BB ratio for other power hitters.
K/BB ratio tells quite a bit about pitch recognition. Swinging at pitches out of the strike zone increases K’s and decreases BB’s. Strong correlation.
Eponymous-
I agree with 90% of what you’re saying, but my point on LF and DH was “in relation” to replacing a Cy Young caliber #1 starter… Felix.
Just because the M’s have been awful at filling those positions, doesn’t mean they’re difficult to fill in general. (Dave’s article last week included a list of perfectly acceptable LF candidates.)
Like every other “this management” discussion, I’m deferring until he has salary to work with and we see what he does in a more tradition GM light.
Essentially, Jack Z came in at a moment that was akin to: “Okay, the row boat is sinking out here in the middle of the Pacific… We need you to row it back to shore, patch up all the holes (with no money), add an upper deck to it (with no money), and then row it back out here and WIN THIS RACE… (Smack on the butt) Go get ’em, Tiger!”
Exactly. Always has, always will.
Paul-
True (K/BB ratio)… But there are guys you’d LOVE to have on your team who swing at pitches outside the zone… And guys you’d NEVER want on your team who don’t.
The only point I put forth was, Peguero had 1 more K (essentially the same number) in 20% more at bats. That’s an improvement. When you suggested it wasn’t. The walk rate wasn’t good, yes. But again my point was, unless you’re talking about guys with good eyes, when you’re talking 3 walks versus 4 walks, pitching has as much to do with that tiny difference as Peguero. He’s got a long way to go before he walks at a decent rate. I don’t think you’ll find anyone to argue that with you.
I tend to think that Peguero will end up placing numbers closer to June than May regularly.
May: .167/.216/.570
June: .241/.323/.823
His June BABIP of .278 is still .05 below his minor league career norms, so it is acceptable that his MLB BABIP will end up in the .275-.300 range.
Those are true freaks of nature. Guys like Vlad, Ichiro and Kirby Puckett.
Peguero is no Vlad.
If the drop in K’s is a real drop, we’ll see an increase in BB rate with a larger sample size.
Otherwise, if a player won’t walk, pitchers just stop throwing strikes.
Paul-
And I’m with you there… That’s where we’ll actually find out what we have in Peguero (certainly NOT a Vlad, Ichiro, Puckett, Rose).
We’ll know soon enough (when the end of July comes along– and we can add some numbers to these).
But he may not get the chance, given a trade, or Carp looking better at the plate (he had both one of his worst and one of his best at bats tonight).
***Breaking NEWS***
Nick Franklin was hit with a bat during batting practice before Jackson’s game tonight, suffering an undisclosed injury (and was rushed to the local emergency room). He didn’t return to the team.
Anyone heard more about this?
Man, oh man. SSS warning, to be sure, but here’s Ackley’s line so far since his call-up:
.303/.378/.545
He’ll have to drop off significantly to “match” what Dave thought would be a good showing for his first season. And maybe he will – but wow, welcome to Seattle Mr. Ackley!!
I’d rather have Langerhans in LF than Peguero or Carp.
Ryan Langerhans’ minor league numbers this year:
.311/.407/.541
Not too shabby, especially given his actual competency in the field (when playing left, anyway).
Our Skipper’s post game interview:
“Well, the offense wasn’t very good tonight… You gotta stay positive… Stay up… But at the same time you have to be honest about what the HELL you’re seeing… The biggest disappointment for me is seeing individuals going up there time and time again doing the same things expecting different results,”
Wedgey is getting a little impatient with the offense, sounds like.
All while being platooned, don’t forget.
Just for fun (using your weird slashes)
April .193/.350/.579
May .276/.375/.822
Then 0-12 with 4 walks spread over a week = benched never to be seen again.
Cust needs to improve.
Cust needs to improve.
Cust is done.
*Cust improves, shows he is not done.*
*a mini slump spread over being put in and out of the line-up*
“We need to play kids, Cust is done.”
Obviously he isn’t wanted, so they should just release him so he can go provide value to another team.
Wedge seems to really like that “doing the same things, expecting different results” line. I’m not really sure what he means though. It seems like the entire game of baseball is made up of guys doing the same thing over and over, getting different results each time.
Paul These are my feelings, in real life they mean very little, because I will never be the GM for the M’s. If I was the GM, the 1st thing I would do is break the rules. I would have a sitdown with Bedard, we are going to trade you, but we want you back next year. The trade is good because we are going to get better. We will have player A under contract for 3 more years. He will be a vast improvement over the guy there now. When you comeback we are willing to offer you 2 years at a price we can agree on. What would that price be? OK we have a deal you go away to a contending team we get player A, and you back and happy next year.
I then would be dangling Figins, we will pay his whole salary minus the team min if you take him. He has acted like he wants out of Seattle for 2 years, so help us give him his wish. If we DFA him you might not get him, the is a low risk high reward for you.
I would have Saunders, Peguero, Carp, and Wilson hanging from the highest mast, what can I get for them, a slick fielder you might be able to turn into a hitter, A guy that can hit the ball a mile each time at bat, just needs some seasoning at the plate and in the field. He is probably a DH candidate though. Carp is a utility guy that can play a few spots, and will hit in a few years maybe in the high 200 to low 300, needs a bit more polishing though.
I would be active for a Catcher, LF, 3rd, and a DH. I will only take guys that have a couple years or more on their contract. I would prefer it their 1st contract. that means they are cheap, and they are young. If somebody wanted to give me a high priced rent a player that would help I would consider it if the price was right. Like they pay half his salary and take Figgins.
What I could not trade for i would go into FA with the names of guys I would want. If we still need a DH Vlad would be the guy I pursue very hard. I am not sure about catcer, I would hope we got one in trade. Probably for Bedard. There are also some other guys in the minors that are eligiable, but there are guys that would be non touchable. I might have a few AAA pitchers we could throw in, but just a few. I would guard my top prospects like a mothe hen. Nobody will get them, others would be available for the right price.
I know I am no where near Trader Jack, but I believe he will be in a like mindset when he is out looking. This is how I see him making trades. If it doesn’t make sense longterm dont’ do it. Sorry I rambled, but it is late and my eyesight is bklurrythere might be some spelling blunders but yuo get the idea.
Not sure why you keep wanting to get a catcher. Olivo drives me nuts sometimes – but he’s been consistently one of the top ten hitting catchers this year, across both leagues.
There are better places to use this team’s resources.
Or, you know, seeing the manager put the same worthless 3b out there and expecting different results…
And behind him is what? Nothing. They need a catcher.
One last note for the Peguero defenders.
Earlier I was looking at K/BB rate as an indicator of strike zone recognition. I looked up K/BB for some hitters — this is not an exhaustive list, all I did was look up the hitters that came to mind first when thinking about guys whose value came primarily via the homerun.
Steve Balboni 3.1
Dave Kingman 3.0
Richie Sexson 2.2
Mo Vaughn 2.0
Gorman Thomas 1.9
Jay Buhner 1.8
Richie Zisk 1.6
David Ortiz 1.4
Harmon Killebrew 1.1
For comparison, Pegeuro is off this chart at 5.7.
Maybe he’ll learn, and if not, maybe he’ll have a career. But if he does have a career, I think he’ll be a real statistical freak, in uncharted territory. Which means he’s very likely to fail.
I am against the idea of “we don’t care how this season ends as long as we play lots of kids, some of which might really turn out for us”. Arguing for a trade of Felix is taking that line of thought to a logical conclusion.
Because if you don’t care what the W-L record is, there is no point in having high-priced players on your roster when you can cash in a superstar for a group of talented kids.
——————————–
I’m not sure if i have to explain how irrational this line of thinking is or not….so if you would rather “play the kids” (Peguero over Cust for instance) you are basically part of the group that says get rid of Felix?
It really reminds me of politicians and their ad hominem attacks. What? You’re not for welfare? You must be a nazi and Hitler was probably your grandfather.
Good article if you haven’t already read it.
http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20110627/BLOG05/110629798/1009/SPORTS07
Exactly how I was thinking. Our guys being able to square up some hittable fastballs would do wonders. All I ever see happen is foul ball after foul ball when the other team is hitting home runs.
Josh Bard is a perfectly serviceable backup catcher – his career line is .256/.323/.357.
Not sure why he’s at AAA while Gimenez (.163/.276/.260) is up in Seattle, though. We’ve already got more than enough crappy outfielders, so Gimenez’s “flexibility” isn’t adding much value.
Great-grandfather, actually – and thanks for bringing that up.
If we had someone else to plug in to LF, that could both play defense and hit, I’d agree with you. But we don’t. But the problem is a lot more than just Peguero:
Mariners outfield wOBA and WAR: .273 – -1.4
Peguero’s wOBA and WAR: .292 – -0.1
And Paul, you need to look at Peguero’s process not just the number of walks and strikeouts:
May: Oswing%: 55.4 % – SwStr%: 20.9 %
June: Oswing%: 42.1 % – SwStr%: 17.8 %
Certainly Peguero still needs to cut his swinging strike rate in half, but he is making big strides in pitch recognition and moving in the right direction.
I’m not sure if i have to explain how irrational this line of thinking is or not….
You don’t.
I’m saying that if all 2011 is about is developing kids, and the win-loss record is irrelevant, there is absolutely no point in spending $80-90 million of Hiroshi Yamauchi’s money on that. Do you need to spend $90 million on Tacoma’s 2011 roster to develop kids? No? Then why spend it on Seattle’s roster? Florida takes this approach all the time. They have two trophies to show for it, they bring in plenty of revenue sharing money and likely a profit (and they have a ballpark nobody goes to because the fans know management will burn them). Why not cash in the high-priced veterans (and yes, Felix is one) for all the young cheap talent you can get? You saw what we got back for Cliff Lee as a RENTAL- do you think Felix isn’t going to fetch more than that as a player under team control for several years? Imagine adding another Ackley and Smoak to LF and 3B (cheap, young, pretty good and under team control), AND having another 20 million to spend on the FA market each year from 2012-2014. You’re telling me a GM like Zduriencik couldn’t make use of that?
If, on the other hand, you’re spending Hiroshi Yamauchi’s money on a team where you know you don’t have a GREAT chance of contending, because of factors that can’t just be solved the right way by simply opening a checkbook and writing checks for overpriced veterans, but you’re going to take advantage of an opportunity that’s handed to you if it’s there… and the opportunity is there in late June/early July, then, yes, it DOES make a difference whether or not you play a marginally better veteran or a kid who needs to be in Tacoma. And you don’t trade Felix, because 2011 is about winning as many games as you can, just like every other year.
If he were racist Peguero would not see the field although i do agree i think its a waste to have Halman on the bench.
Here’s one I should have added to the list. Actually, he’s the first player I thought of the first time I saw Peguero.
Frank Howard has 1.9 K/BB. Which is about what Gorman Thomas had.
So, Peguero is sort of a super-exaggerated cartoon version of Frank Howard.
Paul-
I think the fair analysis would be if those stats you show for hitters is from their 1st two months in the league…
Some of your guy’s first month in the league:
Killibrew: 57 AB’s, 15K’s, 4 HR’s
Kingman: 57 AB’s, 15k’s, 2 HR’s
Vaughan: 73 AB’s, 20K’s, 3 HR’s
G.Thomas: 64 AB’s, 26K’s, 5 HR’s
Peguero: 48 AB’s, 17K’s, 2 HR’s
I don’t see the horrible abberation that is Carlos Peguero when comparing them to the same service time in the league, by the stats you were comparing. Which I think is a much more fair comparison. NOT saying he’ll emerge as akin to any of those guys, just pointing out that I think your comparison was flawed.
Based on these numbers– he’s the next Mo Vaughan meets Gorman Thomas? I’d take that…