Trade Michael Pineda?
Turning comments back on for this post as a test since I know many of you will want to weigh in. Behave.
My newest post is up on the Brock and Salk blog, and in it, I advocate the team exploring a trade for Michael Pineda. Yes, seriously.
I realize that the thought of trading Pineda is going to sound crazy. He’s a 22-year-old flamethrower who is already a quality Major League arm, and the Mariners control his rights through the 2016 season. He’s the leading candidate for the American League Rookie of the Year, and a big part of why the Mariners have been competitive this season. But, for those same reasons, Pineda would attract a ridiculous amount of demand if the organization let it be known that they would move him for the right price.
The list of available starting pitchers this summer is weak and thin. There is no Cliff Lee on the market, and so teams looking to upgrade their rotation will be frustrated by their options. There are also multiple contending teams that are up against their payroll limits, and given their budgetary restraints, they wouldn’t be able to take on much salary even if they could find a player they coveted. Pineda solves a lot of problems for these teams, offering a league-minimum front-line starter who would be with their organization for years to come.
Read the rest over at 710sports.com, and the link to my segment with the guys should be up on that page soon..
Is everyone forgetting about Nick Franklin and Kyle Seager? Seager has torn up every level so far, and his start in Tacoma is extremely encouraging – 5 XBH in 6 games so far.
My point is, its not like we are absolutely barren in position player talent. Let’s keep our Felix/Pineda at the top, just like the Giants did with Lincecum/Cain to get a ring.
But he should have been our Tulo, Thanks again Bavasi!!!!!!!!!
From Dave’s lips to Z’s brain – I think this trade should have happened yesterday. While my heart is screaming no, the Braves’ and Nationals’ series tell me that we need more offense and need to DFA some of the dead weight from the team.
Size and strength have virtually nothing to do with pitcher injuries. Weight has been shown to have a small correlation with durability, but not much of one, certainly not one that materially affects Pineda’s individual odds of staying durable. It’s absolute folly to suggest that some characteristic of an individual pitcher means he’ll be an exception to the rule.
Nobody should ever be off the table. If the Rays called up and offered Longoria for Felix, I’d take it, then I’d attempt a backflip, then when I got out of the hospital a few months later, I’d go watch Longoria man 3B in Safeco. Pineda’s worth a ton, and it’d take a ton for the Ms to give him up, but if a team’s willing to offer a ton, it’s never smart to say he’s off limits.
Grandal, Alonso, and Frazier would be a pretty great haul. Not sure if I pull the trigger, because I think Alonso tops out at about 2-WAR if he’s a LF or DH and I’m not a huge Frazier fan, but it’d force GMZ to think long and hard.
Whether trading Pineda is the right path is dependent on several factors:
1. What’s being offered
2. The potential of other pitchers to fill in the void
3. The potential (or lack thereof) of other position player options, internal or external.
etc. (how likely is Pineda to master a change-up, stay healthy, etc. etc.)
Since I’m not sure we have carte blanche to go full-hog rosterbation here, let me just say that it’d be a very difficult decision. Where it’s so much easier not to pull the trigger, it’s very unlikely to happen.
Nobody’s forgetting about Franklin and Seager. But Franklin and Seager aren’t going to solve this offense. Not by themselves, and not by 2012. Only Seager’s even got a decent chance to crack the 25-man by next year, and he’s just now starting to take reps at 3rd, where he doesn’t exactly fit the profile. Franklin’s 20, had a mediocre first half of the season, isn’t a lock to stick at shortstop, and may have just suffered a concussion.
Pretty radical moves need to be taken to bring the Mariners from an abysmal offense to a decent one. Whether that’s trading someone like Pineda or relying on smaller moves and next off-season remains to be seen, but just about the only thing that’s certain is that we can’t rely on the talent that’s currently in-house to get us there.
I don’t want to like this post or this idea, Dave. I’ve already gotten really attached to the big guy wearing #36.
But, I’d be lying if I said I thought your post wasn’t well-thought out, or didn’t make baseball sense.
It makes too much sense. I hate sense, sometimes.
But I have a thought or two on the matter.
Pineda’s never been asked to be an ace, and because of how few innings he’s pitched is being closely monitored. There’s a real possibility that he’ll face a shut-down for the year by September if his current innings keep up.
Wouldn’t a team attempting to barter use those points as a way drive down the price on Pineda?
Would a guy like Doug Fister make more sense to trade, as well as Jason Vargas? Vargas would need a team with a big ballpark (and Great American Ball Park in Cincy would kill his effectiveness, so that’s out)…but those two are going to become expensive sooner than Pineda and have much more replaceable skill-sets as starting pitchers.
The return back for them would be lesser than what if we parted with Pineda, true. But with starting pitching at such a premium price, couldn’t we significantly upgrade our offense using those two as chips as well?
I think the idea is solid, but I’m wondering if it HAS to be Pineda.
I think we have something in that guy, and it could be extremely special. How often does a 22-year-old with such limited pro innings do what he’s done in half a season of the big leagues? And I love his mentality, always learning. He’s already got it in his head how bad walks can be, I’ve seen him more than once be disgusted that he gave up 3 or 4 in a start.
He just gets it, Michael Pineda does. I’d be VERY, very leery of any trade scenario including him. And if done? Boy, it had best be the right baseball trade.
Seager is tearing it up, but he is blocked at 2nd. I haven’t followed him too closely, but is he viable at SS or 3B?
We’re nearly 300 games into gnashing our teeth over whether pitching and defense can carry a bad lineup. Trading Pineda would help this, so I reluctantly (because he’s damned good) agree.
Pineda is a high risk guy according to Dave. Let’s say that’s true. Do people truly believe that Dave, this board and ESPN 710 Seattle listeners are the only people aware of this information?
Wouldn’t they factor this information into their pricing model of what they will give up for Pineda?
Trades work only if both sides benefit at the time or they have a different idea of what is valuable and what is not. Also, as with any trade, it depends on what the other side wants to give up. If the Yankees wanted to trade Teixera, Cano and Jesus Monero for Felix, who here would say no? Nobody. But the list of prospect players i heard Dave talking about trading for didn’t really spark my fancy. I’m not in favor of giving up very high value players for 3-4 lesser value players. Perhaps it is correct that the 3-4 lesser players are “safer” but what you also give up is the high ceiling with the 1 player. It’s all about risk vs reward, if a team is willing to give you less risk for your high risk, be willing to bet that they are getting in return high reward for their low reward, otherwise why in the hell would they make the trade?
Dave rosterbates better than most.
No. Hell no. No, no, no.
For the price we’re paying him, I’d rather trade Felix, or Guty, or Ichiro.
I’d rather not trade ANY of them.
But pitching is just too frail to lob around like it’s money we’ve just got to spend. A major injury to the King, and after trading Pineda, we’d be almost completely broke.
There’s nothing we’ll gain from trading him that we can’t afford this offseason. Which is another consideration.
Given the choice (and we’ve seen both versions in this town) I’ll take GREAT pitching with bad offense, versus lots of runs with AWFUL pitching.
If we’re not careful, we’ll end up with BOTH awful offense AND awful pitching.
No way, shape, or form do you trade Pineda…or Hernandez.
You could get 10 “top prospects” for each guy, and every one of them would be about their age or slightly younger, and it’s likely you would not get their talent from ANY of the 20.
These guys are now SURE THINGS at a very young age. Why would you trade for a bunch of maybe’s trying to hit (and probably missing) the same jackpot you just hit?
Pitching is NEVER a “sure thing.” Pineda could blow his elbow out tomorrow. We saw what happened with Bedard. Good starting pitching is also more replaceable, and cheaper in my opinion, than offense.
Given a choice, I’d trade Ichiro over Pineda or Felix, but that ship has sailed and he just wouldn’t draw much of a return anymore. We have FIVE dominating pitchers right now. Trade one for guys who can help the offense…I think it’s downright ignorant not to see the logic in that. Even if whoever is plugged into the rotation is replacement level…well, we would basically still have FOUR guys who are pitching at ace level.
I’m too attached to Felix to say trade him but I think trading him would result in a greater plus for the organization seeing as we would have a ton of money freed up plus the haul of players we could get. Not just prospects, but major league ready guys.
I don’t know why you guys are complaining about the comments on 710. At least there the folks aren’t afraid to challenge Dave. On this website it seems more people are hell bent on agreeing with Dave Cameron regardless of what he says.
I saw this article, for instance, linked to on the 710 website:
http://www.ussmariner.com/2011/03/16/pineda-isnt-ready/
I haven’t seen anyone link to it here. What was the response to why Dave originally thought Pineda was not ready?
Under no circumstances would I trade Pineda. The thing that separates him from the other pitchers you mentioned in your segment are size and attitude.
It’s extremely hard to find an ace that would be an anchor to your staff; we potentially have three. We need 1, maybe 2, competent bats to spark this lineup. Trade Bedard, Fister or Vargas for an adequate hitter, and stay on course.
I know this anemic offense has been torturous to but trading a pitcher of Pineda’s caliber seems a little extreme.
Amen!
What about 3-way trade:
We get:
Carlos Beltran, Yonder, Yasmani
Mets get:
Carlos Peguero, Chone figgins, (3rd piece from Cincy)
Cincy gets:
Pineda
Can we please sign Yu Darvish during the offseason? I know there is a huge risk with signing Japanese pitchers, but this guy is a STUD! He’s much more polished than Dice-K or any other pitcher that we’ve seen. If we could manage to sign him, trading Pineda for a few high-level prospects would make much more sense too.
I think a 3-way could very well happen, wstanley425. The basic premise is solid enough.
But why on Earth would the Mets agree to this deal? They’d be taking on a bad contract of ours as they unleashed their own bad contract onto us. And where would Figgins play for them?
Only if David Wright was gone does this trade make any sense for them.
Carlos Peguero isn’t enough of a “young player” for them to build with, either. Ergo, not enough benefit for the Mets to pull the trigger and get in on this rodeo.
The Mets are very much in our boat- trying to build with younger players while escaping the weight of contracts that just didn’t pan out.
It’s not a horrible trade outline, IMHO. But it blatantly favors us and the Reds.
Four hours ago, a comment in favor of trading Pineda:
Now, do we have a surplus of aces? We have Felix and Pineda. We have pitching depth, and God please allow one or more of Taijuan, Hultzen and Paxton become an ace, but we only have two pitchers who have dominated at the major league level.
That’s why the M’s won’t trade Pineda.
But it is a very intriguing idea, and I like the way Dave Cameron thinks outside the box.
We’ll have to pay an enormous posting fee just for the chance to talk turkey this off-season, teddyballgame9. And that’s IF we’re the highest bidder.
Darvish isn’t a free agent of his own accord until 2014.
Hasn’t Darvish repeatedly thrown way too many pitches? He may not be a good risk.
Trades work only if both sides benefit at the time
OOPS did that backwards sorr should be the otherway.
That’s why Dave mentioned trading to a team that’s currently contending. Young pitchers are very risky for the long-term, but teams will pay a lot to get a premier arm to get them into the playoffs in the short-term. Pineda does that, and gives a good possibility of getting good future value. That’s why his trade value is extremely high.
How about your out of your fucking mind you stat nerd
Here’s what I think. Pundits get bored and start coming up with dopey trade scenarios. No trading outstanding young talent. Period. This team looks great right now – better than the 1982 Twins and ahead of them in many respects. Chill.
Yeah, because Dave is so bored. It’s not because he cares about this team and wants to see it do well. No sir. Just bored.
Who gives a crap if we’re “better” than the 1982 Twins. Are they leading the AL West?
There is nothing wrong with bettering the team in any way shape or form. You may not like giving up Pineda, but if he got us back players who were just as good, wouldn’t that make the team better overall?
We all like Pineda and his potential, but at the end of the day (thanks Jack Z) he’s only one guy on a team with several holes. If we can get rid of one surplus item to fill needs, why in the heck shouldn’t we pursue that goal?
I’d only take Ryan Braun.
I could forgive them for trading Felix at this point, and I honestly think that makes at least a *little* sense, but if they trade Pineda, I can honestly say I would not forgive them for a long long long time….