Trade Value Of The Guys That Might Get Sold
After the belly flop the team pulled in Anaheim – corresponding with winning streaks from the Rangers and Angels – the team will be sellers rather than buyers at the deadline. However, in looking at what the M’s have to offer contenders looking to bolster their rosters, it’s not like we’re going to see a bunch of blockbuster deals that reload the farm system here. The M’s have some pieces with a bit of value, but they’re going to have to position themselves as the Wal-Mart of the trade deadline – it might not be the highest quality stuff around, but at least it doesn’t cost much.
Here’s who the M’s will likely be taking phone calls for over the next few weeks:
Brandon League, RHP.
Good-but-not-great reliever with limited track record as a ninth inning guy. He’s got value, especially because his salary is relatively cheap and he’s under team control for 2012, but you’re not going to get the kind of guy that can turn a franchise around for him, and of course trading League depletes an already weak bullpen that doesn’t have a lot of good options going forward. In fact, given that the M’s will control League for next year and the state of the rest of the arms in the bullpen, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Jack Zduriencik just decided to keep League for himself. They’d likely move him if a team overpays, but with guys like Francisco Rodriguez getting dumped for salary reasons and Heath Bell available, I don’t know how much demand for League there will really be.
Erik Bedard, LHP.
We all know the deal here – even though his current injury isn’t arm related, the fact that he’s on the DL isn’t doing his trade value any good. He hasn’t pitched a game in September since 2007. He’s pitched four innings in October during his entire career. Is any contender going to look at Bedard and believe that they can count on him to pitch well not only for the final two months of the regular season, but also be able to take the ball in the playoffs as well? They might be willing to gamble on him, but they’re not going to be willing to surrender a premium young player for the right to hope that this is the year that Bedard stays healthy all season.
Adam Kennedy, 2B.
After a nice start to the season, he’s turned back into the guy who signed a non-roster invite to spring training a few months ago. He’s been a nice player for the M’s, but on a contender, he’s a bench guy. The M’s will be able to move him for a prospect with warts who is years from the Majors or a low-ceiling guy who could be a role player if everything goes right, but don’t get your hopes up that you’re going to be able to get anything significant in return here.
Jack Wilson, 2B/SS.
Look around baseball at some of the players that are starting at shortstop for contending teams – Yuniesky Betancourt, Brandon Crawford, Ronny Cedeno. Jack Wilson has been available for months, and none of these teams have called and said “yeah, he’s better than what we have.” The M’s will be able to trade Wilson if they pick up most of the rest of his contract, but they’re not getting anything back for him. The M’s don’t want Jack Wilson anymore, and neither does anyone else.
So you’ve got one guy who might be able to bring a solid-but-not-spectacular prospect in return, one guy who could bring some unknown thing in return, and two guys the team can give away if they want. That’s not exactly dealing from a position of strength.
While it’s nice to dream about what the M’s can get if they packaged all these guys together, the reality is that the only guys on the M’s roster who would really generate excited phone calls from other GMs are Felix, Pineda, and Ackley, and I’m pretty sure that none of those guys are getting moved in the next few weeks. League and Bedard might bring you an interesting young player or two, but the M’s aren’t going to be able to reload at the deadline this year. Maybe Jack has a trick or two up his sleeve, but overall, I think we’re probably in for a more boring trade deadline than you might expect.
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On Bedard,
Yes they will! Especially a team who has a lot of good young guys in thier system!
That’s exactly what so many of the proposals in this thread are – throwing a bunch of AAAA players (though I would call it “depth” not “strength”) into a deal. No one will give us anything of value for the lot of them, not even if you include Kennedy.
I am dreaming here myself, but to make mine come true, first Wedge must run Jack Wilson out at SS a time or two a week so that people can see that he hasn’t forgotten how to play the position. My dream is then that a contender that values defense suddenly comes up with an injured SS. Then I think we MIGHT get a B prospect if we ate practically all of his salary, as Dave said.
Jack Z should keep working the phones, though – every once in awhile, you get a GM like Bill Bavasi or Woody Woodward on the other end of the line, and he gets desperate.
The only way Jack Wilson would have any value is if every SS in MLB went on the 60 day DL at the same time. The worst SS in MLB is Ian Desmond of the Nats with a triple slash of .223/.264/.308 for a .570 OPS. Jack Wilson’s is .226/.252/.250 for a .502 OPS. Jack Wilson has an OPS+ of 45, for god’s sake. He is worthless and could be DFA’d (along with a number of others) and not get a nibble.
They want to get rid of McGehee because he isn’t doing anything. You want him here?
I read on Twitter that the going rate for an average journeyman-type batter is one good, nearly-MLB ready prospect or multiple high-A “ace” prospects. Which just isn’t worth it. Everyone know it’s a seller’s market this year, big time.
Every MLB club has plenty of AAAA players or can easily acquire such players. That’s a basic numbers game outcome of the talent pyramid. There is only one player that is the best in baseball. There are 25 players that are the 25 best. There are 1100 players that are the 1100 best (1100 being roughly the number of players that are on the combined 40-man rosters. Which means there are at least another 1000 players that can play at the tier just below that. So there’s is no shortage of players at the AAAA level; there are around 1000 of those guys around and only 30 clubs to employ them.
Consequently, no matter how many AAAA players you put together you just can’t create a significant value package that is worth an average value MLB player.
*******
When you rosterbate and fantasize trade packages, you need to dispense with the notion that some quantity of replacement level talent adds up to a true MLB talent equivalent. It doesn’t.
Acquiring average MLB talent requires surrendering either: 1) equivalent average MLB talent; or 2) prospect talent that has a realistic potential of being something more than average MLB talent.
I note that Rasmus appears to be off the block in StL, how about putting together a package with League, Vargas, and a AAAA guy for Alex Gordon? KC is said to be considering moving him. No more foolish an idea than many already posted here.
Isn’t “AAAA Player” a different term for “Replacement Player?” Why would anyone think replacement players were relevant in trade discussions.
I think people think of players like commodities…like if I pile up enough coal, it will be worth one gold ingot. But it’s not like that. You can give me as many Herbert Shmerbilders as you like, I’m not giving you my Van Gogh.
This team’s “only area of strength”, if it has one, is pitching. Is it becoming clearer why Dave was at least willing to think about trading Pineda?
Yeah, and this is especially true because there are only 25 roster spots. Sure, six 1 WAR guys are worth more than one 4 WAR guy, but unless you have that many open roster spots, what good does it do you?
Why is it our trade chips always seem to get injured…. In 2009 Beltre and now Bedard and Aardsma? When will our luck change?
Jack Wilson’s value, such as it is, is in the field not at the plate.
If my starting shortstop was, for example, Yuni, I would first punch myself in the face, but then would get someone like Jack as a defensive replacement.
Our luck will change when they stop playing atop that Duwamish burial ground. Once the team moves to a new stadium in –I don’t know, Bellevue — everything will start going their way. I predict this will happen sometime after Las Vegas wins its first World Series (which will be just after Portland wins its second).
Well, somewhere in there you should leave Cleveland, as that is the sure cure to self-facepunching. And then you should consult the Yuni Matrix.