Trade Value Of The Guys That Might Get Sold
After the belly flop the team pulled in Anaheim – corresponding with winning streaks from the Rangers and Angels – the team will be sellers rather than buyers at the deadline. However, in looking at what the M’s have to offer contenders looking to bolster their rosters, it’s not like we’re going to see a bunch of blockbuster deals that reload the farm system here. The M’s have some pieces with a bit of value, but they’re going to have to position themselves as the Wal-Mart of the trade deadline – it might not be the highest quality stuff around, but at least it doesn’t cost much.
Here’s who the M’s will likely be taking phone calls for over the next few weeks:
Brandon League, RHP.
Good-but-not-great reliever with limited track record as a ninth inning guy. He’s got value, especially because his salary is relatively cheap and he’s under team control for 2012, but you’re not going to get the kind of guy that can turn a franchise around for him, and of course trading League depletes an already weak bullpen that doesn’t have a lot of good options going forward. In fact, given that the M’s will control League for next year and the state of the rest of the arms in the bullpen, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Jack Zduriencik just decided to keep League for himself. They’d likely move him if a team overpays, but with guys like Francisco Rodriguez getting dumped for salary reasons and Heath Bell available, I don’t know how much demand for League there will really be.
Erik Bedard, LHP.
We all know the deal here – even though his current injury isn’t arm related, the fact that he’s on the DL isn’t doing his trade value any good. He hasn’t pitched a game in September since 2007. He’s pitched four innings in October during his entire career. Is any contender going to look at Bedard and believe that they can count on him to pitch well not only for the final two months of the regular season, but also be able to take the ball in the playoffs as well? They might be willing to gamble on him, but they’re not going to be willing to surrender a premium young player for the right to hope that this is the year that Bedard stays healthy all season.
Adam Kennedy, 2B.
After a nice start to the season, he’s turned back into the guy who signed a non-roster invite to spring training a few months ago. He’s been a nice player for the M’s, but on a contender, he’s a bench guy. The M’s will be able to move him for a prospect with warts who is years from the Majors or a low-ceiling guy who could be a role player if everything goes right, but don’t get your hopes up that you’re going to be able to get anything significant in return here.
Jack Wilson, 2B/SS.
Look around baseball at some of the players that are starting at shortstop for contending teams – Yuniesky Betancourt, Brandon Crawford, Ronny Cedeno. Jack Wilson has been available for months, and none of these teams have called and said “yeah, he’s better than what we have.” The M’s will be able to trade Wilson if they pick up most of the rest of his contract, but they’re not getting anything back for him. The M’s don’t want Jack Wilson anymore, and neither does anyone else.
So you’ve got one guy who might be able to bring a solid-but-not-spectacular prospect in return, one guy who could bring some unknown thing in return, and two guys the team can give away if they want. That’s not exactly dealing from a position of strength.
While it’s nice to dream about what the M’s can get if they packaged all these guys together, the reality is that the only guys on the M’s roster who would really generate excited phone calls from other GMs are Felix, Pineda, and Ackley, and I’m pretty sure that none of those guys are getting moved in the next few weeks. League and Bedard might bring you an interesting young player or two, but the M’s aren’t going to be able to reload at the deadline this year. Maybe Jack has a trick or two up his sleeve, but overall, I think we’re probably in for a more boring trade deadline than you might expect.
Minor League Wrap (7/4-10/11)
Greetings! I suppose you might be expecting that this week was the week in which some of the international free agent stuff started going official for us. It wasn’t. Even though one of the guys spreading rumors from Venezuela said that things would start to get announced on the 10th, they weren’t, and we continue to wait. Maybe they get announced today, with the all-star break going on. Maybe we’re really tough negotiators. Maybe we have recognized that the international market is increasingly insane. Maybe we don’t care that the market is insane considering that we continue to have a pretty good return rate on our signings there. I don’t know! Let’s talk about things that have actually happened!
To the jump!
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Series Wrap-up, Futures Game, etc.
Well, at least this series cleared up a lot of nagging questions. These past four games have had a decidedly “2010 Mariners” feel to them, and I suppose I should be happy that it’s taken as long as it has for this no-hit M’s team to ape the look and feel of last year’s no-hit M’s team. As Jeff pointed out at LL, this sweep has taken the M’s postseason odds from 17% to 3% at Cool Standings. Baseball Prospectus’ odds were never as bullish, so the M’s odds have dropped fractionally to 0.7%. The race is not technically over, but hey, the problem of how to limit Michael Pineda’s innings in a tight divisional race has sort of solved itself.
Even down 2-0, I thought the Angels had a better than 50/50 shot to win today. Yes, Felix was pitching, but so was Dan Haren, and with the M’s bullpen sliding… I’m just not surprised it ended the way it did. In fact, I keep trying to recall how it was that the M’s beat Jered Weaver and Dan Haren in a quick two-game set back in May. I mean, I know they did it, and I watched the games. But even having seen it, I can’t imagine how it would look for this team to beat that team behind those starters.
For the second consecutive series, M’s pitchers allowed a three-ball walk. I can’t believe that no one on the bench watches the game with more focus than those of us grabbing beers, distracting kids or doing yardwork, but the evidence would suggest they don’t. In the minors, you’ve got a starting pitcher or two charting the game, and you have to figure they’d notice. I’ve always wondered about how this baseball ritual works in the majors; recent events make me wonder if some of the charts are doodles of cars and caricatures of the opponent’s manager. What do pitchers get out of this, anyway? How does it help Jason Vargas to know that batter X struggles against 97 MPH fastballs up in the zone and 92 MPH sinkers away?
I’m trying to remember what it was like to be confident when Jamey Wright – THAT Jamey Wright – came into a tight game. Looking back, it’s a classic example of why statheads drone on about small sample sizes. Most everyone here knows that BABIP fluctuation or strand rate will play havoc with a reliever’s ERA (another reason ERA isn’t useful). But Wright’s instructive because, for a brief, confusing moment, his peripherals changed too. He was striking more people out and walking fewer back in April/May. Then, just as suddenly, he reverted to being the same Jamey Wright we’ve known for years. Anything can happen in a small sample. The FIP categories of walks, strikeouts and home runs are important because they’re much more stable than things like hits or runs allowed, but pretty much nothing’s “stable” over a week or a month except perhaps Yuniesky Betancourt’s walk rate.
One of the keys to the sweep was Angels’ 1B Mark Trumbo, the same guy I trashed in the AL West prospect preview. According to Fangraphs, he’s now the most valuable rookie position player in the AL. How does a guy whose slash line looks like it’s ripped from a Mike Jacobs baseball card put up 1.6 WAR at the break? First, offense is down so substantially that a .300 on-base percentage *from a first baseman* is no longer an automatic mark of failure. Second, Trumbo’s been solid defensively. There’s still some disagreement amongst the defensive metrics, but he certainly looked like a good defender this weekend (and considerably better than Justin Smoak). Partial season UZRs aren’t all that meaningful, but if you assume Trumbo adds a few runs defensively, his WAR doesn’t seem that crazy: a few runs at the plate, a few runs in the field, and you’ve got the makings of an average-to-decent player. That’s not saying a whole lot, but I’m still stunned – both by the fact that Trumbo’s holding his own and by the fact that he’s performed so much better than Justin Smoak.
In brighter news, the Futures Game featured a ray of hope for M’s fans in the person of James Paxton, who threw a seven pitch 1-2-3 inning for the World team today in Arizona. The Canadian lefty hit the mid-90s on the gun, and got a comebacker from Jason Kipnis and induced a weak grounder from hyped prospect Bryce Harper. Larry Stone spoke with him afterward, and Paxton mentions that he’s picked up a new change-up this year, and his performance against righties will be interesting to watch down the stretch for AA Jackson. Alex Liddi also played – again – and made an excellent defensive play to retire Giants speedy CF Gary Brown. Liddi’s arm is a weapon, but the bat’s still a work in progress. He went 0-3 with a strikeout against the Rays Matt Moore. Mind you, Matt Moore was jaw-dropping today, hitting 100 mph (he’s a LEFTY) on the TV gun and 98 on pitch fx, then breaking in a good high-80s slider. Liddi saw both the 98mph heat and an 86mph slider and that was that. On the bright side, no one Liddi will face for the rest of the year has that kind of arsenal.
Quick Thoughts From Anaheim
Since I was down in Long Beach for the national SABR convention, I made the trek over to Angels Stadium each of the last three days. A few quick thoughts from the stadium:
1. The rally monkey is the worst invention ever. So horrible.
2. Dustin Ackley is fantastic. He hit line drives all over the park all weekend long, worked counts, played defense… seriously, he might just be the best position player in the organization right now.
3. Justin Smoak hit a bunch of balls pretty hard that went right at people. I know this slump is getting long and tedious, but I’m not too worried. He was never going to be Albert Pujols, so his fantastic April might have inflated expectations beyond a reasonable amount, but he’s still a good young hitter.
4. Felix topped out at 94 today on the same gun that had Jeff Gray (!?!) at 93 tonight. Pitch F/x says he hit 95, but he sat around 91-93 for most of the day. I’m not worried yet, but the M’s should really start backing off of his workloads in the second half. I know he’s big and strong and has endured large workloads before, but he’s averaging 113 pitches per start and has thrown 100+ in all but two games all season. You can justify workloads like that when a team is going for a playoff spot, but not in a rebuilding year. Wedge needs to put a tighter leash on Felix for the rest of the year.
5. Speaking of teams going for a playoff spot, I’d imagine this week ended any thoughts of the M’s being buyers at the deadline. With Texas finally playing well and the M’s getting whooped by the Angels, the team’s playoff chances are now slim to none. Any pretense of this being a contending team is now over, and I’d imagine we’ll see veterans moved in trades over the next few weeks. The Mariners still should focus on acquiring pieces that can help them sooner than later, but they’re probably out of the running for any rental types or guys who would be more about 2011 than 2012.
6. Mike Trout is fast.
Game 91, Mariners at Angels
Whoa, sorry for the late game thread. M’s scored 2 in the top of the first on a two-out single by Adam Kennedy. Happy belated Felix Day!
Hernandez v. Haren
Line-up:
1: Ichiro
2: Ryan
3: Ackley
4: Smoak
5: Kennedy
6: Gutierrez
7: Bard
8: Seager
9: Halman
Game 90, Mariners at Angels
Pineda vs. Pineiro, 7:05
The M’s best chance to sneak a win in the series comes tonight, as Michael Pineda gets to face the Angels for the first time and the Angels start someone other than their big two. Joel Pineiro’s been a decent starter this year, though his strike-out rate’s at a career low, and his GB rate (while still above average) is just over 50%, a far cry from the 60% he put up in his last year with the Cardinals. Still, the M’s have made guys like Guillermo Moscoso and Cory Luebke look amazing, so forget I said anything. Pineiro struggled a bit against lefties so far, so it may be a decent matchup for Kyle Seager.
Franklin Gutierrez isn’t feeling well today, which means Greg Halman slides over to center field and Carlos Peguero is back in LF. I’m glad Guti’s taking a day off, and it doesn’t sound serious, but then, the flare-ups he had during spring training didn’t sound serious either, and here we are half way through the season and Guti’s been on the DL and hit like a pitcher when he’s played.
Line-up:
1: Ichiro
2: Ryan
3: Ackley
4: Olivo
5: Kennedy (1b)
6: Smoak (DH)
7: Seager
8: Halman
9: Peguero
In the minors, Jarrett Grube returns to the Rainiers and gets the start tonight against Reno (7pm). Dylan Unsworth, the South African pitcher who only walked one in the AZL season last year got roughed up a bit today v. Johnson City in the Appy league. Chris Sorce takes the ball for High Desert at 7, and Everett and Peoria haven’t named starters yet.
Game 89, Mariners at Los Angeles MikeTrouts
Beavan vs. Santana, 7:05
Peguero gets a night off (against a righty, no less) and Ackley’s up to the #3 spot in the line-up.
1: Ichiro
2: Ryan
3: Ackley
4: Olivo
5: Smoak
6: Cust
7: Gutierrez
8: Seager
9: Halman
On tap in the minors:
* Tacoma’s at home taking on Reno at 7. We’ll see if Carp is back in the line-up. Luke French vs. ex-M’s property Gaby Hernandez.
* Mauricio Robles moves up to AA Jackson and gets the start tonight. He had a rough go of it in High Desert, but he’s just building strength in his come-back from elbow surgery. Last night’s starter, Erasmo Ramirez, is officially on a cold streak. One of my favorite dark horses, Ramirez had a great April/May, but the Nicaraguan’s freakish control has left him at times, and he’s starting to develop a HR problem. Hey, it was an aggressive promotion and he’s not out-and-out bad. C’mon Erasmo!
* Taijuan Walker pitched last night for Clinton and gave up 1 hit in 6 innings, striking out 11. Tonight’s starter is not Taijuan Walker, but it’s ex-M’s prospect, then Orioles injury victim, now M’s reclamation project Tony Butler. It’s only a matter of time before we reacquire Chris Tillman.
Angels Call Up Top Prospect Mike Trout
Kyle Seager had one day to be the center of attention. The Angels called up their top prospect, CF Mike Trout, from AA this morning to replace Peter Bourjos who strained his hamstring on a double last night.
Trout was the Angels’ 2nd first round pick in the 2009 draft, a kid from a cold-weather state that not many people expected a lot out of. Oops. Though he doesn’t turn 20 until next month, he’s currently sporting a .324/.415/.534 line in the high minors along with what’s reported to be plus defense in center field. He’s stolen 28 bases thus far as well. A right handed hitter, he doesn’t show much in the way of platoon splits. He’s far and away the Angels top prospect, and some have him ranked as the #1 prospect in all of baseball (ahead of Bryce Harper). The Angels had a bit of a dilemma on their hands given that Peter Bourjos, the rookie incumbent in CF, is an elite defender. Would they move Trout off the position? Move Bourjos? For now at least, they don’t have to. If Trout hits like he has in the minors, he can play anywhere and be an all-star.
He may not start quite as hot as Dustin Ackley has, but he shouldn’t be overmatched. It pains me to say it, but I think this could be a great move for the Angels. Instead of using Torii Hunter and Vernon Wells to cover for Bourjos (and picking up someone like Juan Rivera or a AAAA left fielder), they limit the defensive hit due to Bourjos’ injury. They’re getting Trout’s feet wet a bit earlier than they may have planned, but he’s not going to be a Super 2, and I’m not sure they could’ve held him off in April of next year anyway. The choice here was pushing his call up to May of 2012 or going for it now. With the Halos starting play a game back of the Rangers, they need to put their best team on the field right now.
Assuming he plays tonight, he’ll face Blake Beavan, which is a far cry from the challenge Seager faced last night.
Interesting tidbit courtesy of Sam Miller of the Orange County Register: “If Mike Trout were on the Angels low-A team in Cedar Rapids, he would be the second-youngest player on the roster. If he were on the high-A team in the Cal League, he would be 17 months younger than his youngest teammate.”
The AL West race in 2011 hasn’t featured great teams, but it’s never been boring. Wow.
Game 88, Mariners at Angels
Fister vs. Weaver
Kyle Seager’s first game in an M’s uniform is a divisional clash against arguably the best pitcher in the American League. The M’s did beat Weaver back on May 18th behind a Jason Vargas shutout, but Weaver responded with a complete game shutout of his own on June 14th.
M’s line-up:
1: Ichiro
2: Ryan
3: Kennedy (1B)
4: Smoak (DH)
5: Ackley
6: Olivo
7: Seager (3B)
8: Gutierrez
9: Peguero
More on Seager
You’ve read Jay’s great piece on the move, but I wanted to chime in with my thoughts and discuss the strategy of the move in more detail.
First, Seager’s got a short, quick, level swing that he used to ping line drives around Cheney Stadium when I saw him. That’s great; I’m generally pro line-drive, but it actually makes it harder to know what to expect. He’s not going to hit for much power (the HR he hit at Cheney was a routine fly hit into a strong wind), but his eye should help him post an OBP well above that posted by the M’s left fielders, and easily above the incumbent at 3B, Chone Figgins. He struggled a bit against left-handers, just as Ackley did initially in AAA, but that almost sounds like nit-picking when he put up a .523/.571/.795 line against right-handers. The Angels start four righties in the upcoming series, by the way.
In some ways, this is an ideal situation for Seager. He’s playing in the same infield as his elementary school friend/rival, the guy he’s replacing is putting up one of the worst seasons in M’s history and is widely reviled by M’s fans, and he’s playing for an org that clearly doesn’t mind a 3B without HR power. On the other hand, he’s going to be making his debut in an absolutely crucial four-game series against a division rival at a time when the M’s are within 4 games of the division lead. The M’s clearly thought that playing a talented hitter in this series meant a lot more than playing a veteran hitter, and that’s a sentiment I’m sympathetic to. But let’s be clear: the M’s think the best chance they have to stay in a wide-open AL West race is to call up a 23 year old 2B who’s played two weeks in AAA, and a half-season in the high minors. I agree with their decision, but I don’t like what that says about this team.
Kyle Seager moved to 2B upon signing with the M’s, and he spent 2010 there for High Desert. This year, he played 2B for Jackson, then starting playing more 3B in Tacoma (as Jay mentioned). He played the position in college, so it’s not like he’ll forget which base to throw to, but he doesn’t have the arm strength of an Alex Liddi; David Bell may be a decent comp. In any event, the M’s aren’t turning to Seager for his glove, and Figgins has been so shaky defensively this year that it’s not at all clear that Seager will be a downgrade. Still, if you’ve been nervous about position switching, then this has to be something of a red flag. The M’s moved Figgins off of 3B, but he had much more professional experience at 2B than Seager has at 3B. He’s been very solid since his promotion to Tacoma, but we’re talking about six games and a smattering of chances.
In short, the M’s probably aren’t making this move because they’re smitten with the BABIP-driven video-game slash line Seager’s produced in Tacoma. They’re making the move because they’re desperate, and their offense is comically bad. So yes, Seager’s not terribly experienced at 3B (at least in professional ball), but they’re almost certainly right that he’ll be of more use than Figgins. I’m happy that the M’s system has options to help the ballclub beyond the consensus top 5 guys, but what does it say when a guy like Kyle Seager would hypothetically upgrade several positions in the M’s line-up? The player development group should be praised for Seager’s breakout, but what does it say that no one who started the year as a 3B could fill the role? I was impressed by Seager, and hope he has at least as much success as Dustin Ackley’s had in his first tour of MLB, but for every positive statement you can make about this specific move, you can make a negative one about this move’s context.
Welcome to the show, Kyle. Keep the M’s in the divisional race, would you?
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