Game 121, Blue Jays at Mariners
Vargas vs. Mills, 7:10pm
Jason Vargas and Brad Mills face off tonight in a match-up of soft-tossing lefties trying to keep the ball in the stadium. Both have pretty good change-ups, and that’s nice, because neither’s going to do much with their fastball. Mills’ averages a hair under 85 MPH, which isn’t good, and what’s worse is that he has trouble commanding it.
Will wonders never cease? This line-up looks awfully familiar:
1: Ichiro
2: Gutierrez
3: Ackley
4: Carp
5: Wells
6: Olivo
7: Robinson
8: Seager
9: Wilson
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. It’s amazing how much easier it is to fill out a line-up card when you’ve got hitters. Wells vs. Mills seems like a good match-up for the M’s.
The Rainiers open a series against the Omaha Storm Chasers tonight at Cheney. I’d circled this one at the beginning of the season, as Omaha had what looked like the best assemblage of talent in the minors – Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, Danny Duffy, Mike Montgomery, Johnny Giavotella, etc. Well, all of the above except Montgomery are now playing in Kansas City. They’re still pretty good, but it looks like they’re relying more on vets (Jeff Suppan!) and once-prospects (Vin Mazzaro, Kila Ka’aihue, Robinson Tejeda). That’s fine, as I want the Rainiers to keep up their scoring pace and lead the PCL in runs scored. Reno’s got a commanding lead at this point, but given that Wily Mo Pena now plays for Seattle instead, I don’t think the lead is safe.
Clinton and the entire Midwest League has a day off for travel and for roster shenanigans as they prepare to add players who signed at last night’s deadline. Should be fun to see where some of the new guys end up.
The Jays not only lost last night’s game, they also failed to sign their first-rounder, pitcher Tyler Beede. There’d been a lot of talk that they’d worked out a pre-draft deal – rumors which GM Alex Anthopolous angrily scuttled earlier (he’s been doing a lot of that these days). Anthopolous has had an amazing year, and they were able to sign their sandwich pick for a $1.65m deal (so it’s not like they’re totally empty handed), but losing Beede has to sting a bit.
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You’re right Nate, Ichiro is pure deadweight. Future HOFer goes 2 for 4 yesterday. Hits a lead-off home run the game before. Averaging .273 for month of August. Consistently injury free.
It’s not a matter of if, but when JoBat (Jose Bautista) will homer against the M’s. And how many times.
Just a reminder: Twenty Million Dollars.
Also, Ichiro is having a bad season but is still hitting .266. His wOBA is still 6th best on this team, including some players with a very small sample size. On top of that he’s running a .289 BABIP, which doesn’t really seem sustainable for him.
Must be nice every once and a while for Chris Chambliss to be able to kick back and watch Carl Willis have to pull his hair out in utter futility. “Tough night there, Carl? Heh, heh.”
He’s done the exact same thing many times before. Third baseman plays back with 2 outs and runner on second, Ichi sees him back and bunts. Even if he get a bunt single, the next batter still needs to get a hit to score the run – that’s why the 3B pays back.
It’s not stupid, he knows it isn’t the best thing he can do to get a run in. So that play is selfish.
His on base percentage is barely above .300 which is below even league average. His range in the outfield is not good any more either.
Is he as bad as Griffey was his last two years?
No but he is obviously declining and quite rapidly.
It would be nice if we didn’t have to keep a player just for old times sake. I know he has been a great player but he is not even close to what he used to be.
This is Ichiro’s most undervalued trait.
When a player is injured, he is worthless. And Ichiro is always available. Period. He keeps himself in shape, and doesn’t have any weird run-ins with luggage and glass tables in hotel rooms.
Ha, and don’t forget bending over to pick up your kid’s shoe in a restaurant.
Having ranted a couple times, let me be clear, I appreciate Ichiro a lot, even in this below-par year, and I don’t want him to do anything crazy like crash into a wall trying to make a catch in this lost Seattle season.
No.
The first commandment is THOU SHALL NOT MAKE AN OUT. Don’t forget that.
Lay a good bunt down with the 3B back? Odds no worse than 50-50 and sometimes better. Odds when swinging away? Hm.
He made an out. An out that had no chance of scoring a run.
So just how is Ichiro doing this year? Out of the 25 RF’s with enough PA’s here’s how Ichiro is doing (and I won’t even bother with HR’s and RBI’s): he is dead last in WAR, OBP, ISO, BB%, wOBA, wRC+, wRAA, and in Fielding. Of all 155 position players in MLB he is 149 in WAR and 149 in fielding (the only worse fielders are Vladi, Mark Reynolds, Raul, Yuni, Dan Uggla, and Lance Berkman). And all for only $18 million (although Fangraphs values him at minus $2.7 m making him more “valuable” than only Aubrey Huff, Orlando Cabrera, Lyle Overbay, Alex Rios, Raul Ibanez, and Adam Dunn. Thank god that in a few weeks it will be obvious that the 200 hit mark will not be reached and he can be benched or moved down in the order.
Wow I didn’t realize it was that bad but on this team our pathetic hitting seems normal.
Biggest disappointment of the night is Vargas following up his great outing in Texas with a face plant in his home park. Granted, the Blue Jays can smash bad pitches hard, and his last outing he pitched a season-high number of pitches in a tense, hot bandbox. Maybe that carried over into tonight’s start. I’m pulling for Vargas to finish this year strongly and consistently, but I don’t know what to expect from his starts the rest of the season. Actually, all of the pitchers are kind of an adventure right now. Do we get “Boston” Furbush or “Texas” Furbush? Is Vargas going to be able to string some quality starts together the rest of the season or not? When will the M’s shut down Pineda? Pitching questions going into the offseason are getting as numerous as the hitting questions. Missing the days when you could count on that night’s starter to get you to the 7th!
Also, we’re back in last place. Oakland won over Baltimore.
Really? You guys look at this team and your predominant comment on improvement is: “That right fielder has to GO!”
So, who bats leadoff when his awfulness is benched?
And who plays RF?
And who throws out Pedroia at home plate on a perfect 1-hop strike in a game we ended up winning by 1 run?
And who makes the team MORE THAN $20 MILLION in merchandise & ticket sales annually, making his salary a moot thing to argue?
Ichiro has one year left on his contract. He has been the best player this franchise has known (before this season he never missed an All-Star Game, a Gold Glove, or 200 hits… Only season he hasn’t scored 100 runs was last season…)
He’s not even currently the worst player on the team…
On a decline… Sure, I’ll buy that. “Needs to go”– I don’t even come close to agreeing to that. He leads this team in hits by 39 over the next closest guy… 4th in doubles… 2nd in triples… 3rd in walks… 1st in steals (19 ahead of the next closest Mariner)…
How is that guy a problem on this team?
Not trying to be snarky, I just really don’t understand how Ichiro not being one of the best players in all of baseball for a single year makes him NOT someone you want on your team at all?
Not just to the 7th, but through the 7th.
Some fans wouldn’t be complaining about Ichiro this season if he hadn’t been so great all these previous seasons. Sad.
UnderTheClouds-
And I think pitching is gonna get even more hit and miss (literally)… A few weeks from now I’m betting we’re gonna see a BUNCH of young arms called up when rosters expand. I remember Vargas hitting a wall last year, too. So maybe they pull him back a little bit on innings too. Pineda will probably be replaced by a rotisserie of young guys.
It’s just that time of year.
I would put Casper in right myself. If you want to keep holding on till the bitter end thats fine. Lots of fans seem to enjoy watching players that obviously are not producing much anymore.
See the post were Ichiro ranks last in just about dead last in everything this year.
I guess watching Griffey wasn’t enough for us we need to watch Ichiro’s precipitous decline for two years before we believe it as well.
But I have no problem with giving Ichiro a day off once a week for the remainder of the season. And still could be used as a pinch hitter on those days.
So who else can play RF right now is the question? Knock on wood, but if Ichiro had to go on the DL tomorrow, what are the options?
On the bright side… Good to see us put up 7 runs… And seven games in a row with 9 or more hits. So that’s a positive going into tomorrow…
(Also loved that, over the weekend, we were the first team since early June to win a series against the AL offense leading mighty Red Sox)
I like watching this current team, even when they lose… That’s a big change, in my eyes.
Nate-
I think everyone was realistically hoping that last year was a fluke for Ichiro… And yeah, now we know he’s in a decline…
But until there’s a magic body scanner that tells us “this player has peaked– his next two years will see him decline” it’s a little unrealistic to expect teams to just cut/trade a player after his last “career average” year, when you don’t know what year that is until the years AFTER it actually happen and show the decline…
On a team that starts Milton Bradley in LF, Jack Cust at DH, and Jack Wilson at 2B (like we started the season), we have no business even discussing whether Ichiro should be put out of his (our?) misery and turned into glue.
Realistically, he probably has a smaller role next season– if we’re brave enough to do that to his fanbase… But he definitely deserves to play out his contract (and possibly his career) in 2012. Even if we drastically improve this team over the offseason, the numbers he’s putting up this year will not be worse than Brendan Ryan, Franklin Gutierrez, Miguel Olivo, and likely a couple others… So there’s definitely room on the roster for him.
(But maybe I’m just being selfish? *that was a little tongue in cheek humor*)
Something tells me a guy could make a LOT of $$$’s starting an entirely new Mariners blog this offseason devoted to discussions of whether Ichiro should remain a Mariner or not… Whenever you open the site it starts playing the classic opening chords of The Clash’s “Should I Stay or Should I Go”…
And it costs $1 to post a comment.
Dave Cameron should start it anonymously and I bet it could pay for his entire medical bills.
I hear you. The Fister and Bedard trades marked the end of starting pitching consistency. I’ve been pleasantly surprised by both Furbush and, especially, Beavan. Vargas’ fade last season is why I’m hoping he doesn’t repeat it this season. Wedge made the comment that they want to keep Pineda going into early-September so that he has some experience going late into the season for next season. We’ll see how things go.
Regarding Ichiro, does his declining batting average and speed mean that he should try to be more selective, perhaps get on base more via walks? Is there more the team can do for him to be more productive as he declines? People talk about the power he displays during batting practice, but I’m not buying it–I think he’d hit more home runs now if he could, but I guess people are referring to him changing his swing and potentially sacrificing a lot of hits? I’ve avoiding taking a stand on his situation because I don’t know enough about how great players successfully adjust to declining productivity. I think he and the organization are going to have an interesting off-season. Of all the questions hanging over the M’s, this might be the most important one.
USSM comments threads are so dire these days.
I think the M’s need Ichiro still, the fact is he is the face of the team, regardless of how much more valuable Felix is. MrZDevotee made the good point he makes his salary back in merch, and as long as he does that and there isn’t a player better waiting in the wings I have no problem with him playing. But with the emergence of Casper Wells and Ichiro’s decline in the field, I have to wonder if next year Ichiro should move to DH. With Trayvon being able to play center for Guti and Casper I would imagine could play either corner, we should be able to keep those four in the lineup everyday with a rotating DH predominantly played by Suzuki. My Question is what the fan base would think if our icon wasn’t in right field every night. I can’t imagine the merch sales would go down just because he couldn’t play the field, as that wasn’t the case for Griffey, but it is something to think about.
And what to do with Carp? Feels like he deserves a shot at the team next year, but I feel like we are lacking a position for him, unless he can learn to field at third base in the next six months.
He has also played more games than anyone else in the lineup – so how many hits he has is somewhat moot. If Ackley had been called up and theoretically hit as he has been from the very beginning, his numbers would destroy Ichiro’s in almost every category. Ichiro is no longer the best hitter on this team. I’m not sure if I side with the “needs to go” argument, but he isn’t worth 20 million in payroll. Period.
See above. He isn’t worth 20 million. And that hurts the team. It doesn’t matter if he brings in 100 million in merch – that money does not translate to payroll. The M’s have made money almost every year and payroll has shrunk. The two are not relative. Blame ownership instead of Ichiro for that, but the fact remains.
I think people are getting a little caught up in the youth movement. In any case, he is under contract for next year anyway. This subject will be a lot more interesting and valid next season.
Huzzah, I completely agree. And I know I’m not the only one who is really not all that interested in Ichiro anymore. If I had to choose a Mariner to be the reason I buy my ticket, Ichiro probably isn’t even in the top 5 anymore. His increasing number of swinging strike threes has really not helped.
Chances are, it’s not just some fluke year that players have all the time…he’s just plain getting old and everybody shows their age eventually. It’s just like Griffey. As far as I’m concerned, second greatest M of all time, and at the end, he was DONE. And we all saw it.
Not really. He’s under contract and not tradeable. The 2012 offseason will be far more important. I daresay the 3B/C situations are still a bigger issue.
Assuming Carp can sustain the success he is showing this season, you would really prefer Ichiro to DH? I think it’s a fallacy to assume he will start hitting for power just because he isn’t playing the outfield. Would he be a DH batting leadoff?
GroundZero-
I agree that his current performance doesn’t warrant $20 million a year, but MLB contracts are such a tricky, sticky subject– and they’re basically a payment for PAST performance in most instances (Albert Pujols is about to make a boatload of money and whoever pays that is NOT going to be thinking “his best years are ahead of him” when they’re signing those checks)…
The problem isn’t Ichiro, so much as the problem is baseball’s ridiculous “every year is guaranteed” contract system. EVERYONE ends up overpaying their superstars the final years– that’s basically how you get guys to sign, by adding those last years to a contract. That’s also why we always hear about free agents and how talks have “broken down” over the player wanting a 6 year deal, and the team wanting to offer 4. EVERY big contract goes through that sticking point.
I disagree however that the money Ichiro brings to the ownership has no impact on payroll… To put it into perspective for folks like you and me, if we’re in the market for a new TV, how much we earn and the amount of disposable income we have has a BIG impact on whether we decide to buy a 42″ Plasma for $500-600, or decide this is the year we ‘go for it’ and buy that new “Platinum” 60″ 3D LCD for $3500…
There’s no telling how low our payroll would be if we DIDN’T have Ichiro on our roster– but almost certainly less than it is with him on the team.
But he HAS been on the team…and payroll has decreased. We’ve already gone over the payroll/ownership dilemma on here and no real answers came of it.
I don’t think the two are directly related – if Ichiro decided to go back to Japan in 2012, the team ownership wouldn’t say “hey, we are just going to pocket that 20 million to make up for lost merch revenue instead of it opening up free agent opportunities.”
I also daresay a successful season would result in more merch being sold than any one player (at least any player currently on the Mariners).
My prediction – Ichiro plays out 2012 in Seattle for better or worse. If his decline continues, he retires. If he rebounds, the team signs him to successive 1yr incentive-laden contracts until he completely falls off the table due to age.
I don’t think he would ever agree to be a 4th OF.
Merchandise sales are split equally between all teams.
Ichiro has one year left on his contract. He has been the best player this franchise has known…
Junior is the best player in franchise history.