Game, er, 124 – Mariners at Rays
Furbush vs. Hellickson, 4:10pm
(Please note: the Seahawks preseason game preempts the M’s on 710AM radio, so if you’re looking for the game, head to 770AM instead)
So, uh, THIS is game 124 I think. And again, the M’s face a solid young righthander who throws in the low 90s. Hellickson and Wade Davis were both highly regarded, but while Hell Boy’s tRA/FIP aren’t much to write home about, Hellickson’s probably surpassed Davis at this point.
The difference is that Hellickson has a legitimate plus pitch in his arsenal – the change-up – that Davis doesn’t. As a result, Hellickson’s able to get more strikeouts (though not as many as I would’ve thought) and thus keep his strand rate a bit higher. Hellickson throws his curve about 1/3 of the time, and gets whiffs on over 20% of them – that’s over 1/3 of all swings on his change. That sort of stuff has his change-up’s value up with teammate James Shields or Ricky Romero in the Fangraphs leaderboard. No, it’s not as good as Felix’s or Hamels’, but it’s up there.
You’d think this would help Hellickson stay out of trouble against lefties, but he’s run FIP/xFIPs in the 5s against lefties in his brief career. Oddly for a pitch with good arm-side run, Hellickson uses his change-up more often against *righties* and he’s generated more whiffs against righties than lefties. His big problem against lefties has been control. Hellickson had great walk rates in the minors, but they’ve been quite pedestrian this year, and he’s given up about as many free passes to lefties as he’s struck out. He hasn’t shown command problems against the M’s, of course, walking only 2 in 14 1/3 solid innings in 2 starts against Seattle (both walks came against lefties).
Like Charlie Furbush, Hellickson’s a fly ball guy, so he’s going to need to keep Carp/Wily Mo/Ackley in the ballpark. I’d love to see Pena attack the catwalks at Tropicana, but I fear Hellickson’s change might make this a poor match-up.
Wedge put together a lefty-heavy line-up today, as Dustin Ackley’s back after his day off:
1: Ichiro
2: Gutierrez
3: Ackley
4: Carp
5: Olivo
6: Rodriguez
7: Pena
8: Seager
9: Robinson
* Brendan Ryan came off the DL as Jack Wilson went on it, but Rodriguez gets his second consecutive start at SS (Rodriguez got the start, but Seager’s at SS tonight after Rodriguez took a pitch off his elbow in his first AB).
* Nick Franklin went 3-4 with a triple in his return to AA.
* Tacoma got swept at home by Omaha, and now head to first-place Reno for a big series – Mike Curto talks about it here. They’ve got a lot of ground to make up in 17 games, so they really need to win/sweep this series.
* Today’s a big sports day in Seattle, with the M’s game, the sole Seahawks preseason game and a Sounders match all competing for eyeballs.
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I really don’t have much to add….
I posted this on yesterday’s game thread, but don’t know how many go back and read those. So I thought I would put it here too.
The Yankees claimed Laffey off waivers. They claimed him yesterday, so they have until tomorrow to finish the deal. A big wish is we could get one of the AA catchers they have but I doubt it. Jack do your work, and bring us something good.
I was wondering if anyone has heard if they have made this final, and who they got?
I’m hoping that Geoff Baker is included in the deal with Laffey. We’ll even eat Baker’s salary.
“• Manager Eric Wedge said Casper Wells’ absence from Saturday’s lineup is not related to his injured nose. Wells is just getting a day off to make room for Wily Mo Pena.” – http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110820&content_id=23476784
This is the reason why the @UpstateBaller, Casper Wells not starting tonight for the #Mariners, instead of the strikeout machine Willy Mo Pena Ackley, Carp, Wells, should be your 2-3-4 hitters in the lineup. Bad lineup Wedge.
MLB.com is usually known better as Pravda. 🙂
Also, putting together line-ups at this point in the season is usually done with a fifth of Jose Cuervo and a dartboard.
Cust is looking for a new job, that last one did not last long.
Cust was signed just last week and had a .250/348/.500 line in 23 Triple-A plate appearances. The Phillies are known to be looking for a left-handed bench bat, though Cust’s lack of pinch-hitting success made him a less-than-ideal fit for the role. This is the veteran slugger’s second release in the month after being cut loose by the Mariners on August 4.
Henry that wold be nice, I just do not read him much, not worth the time.
Nice job by Furbush there. Two K’s, albeit to two poor hitters. But they were RHs, and he showed a well-located FB. He’s kept the ball down, but that didn’t deter Longoria.
I’m still really encouraged by Furbush. The FB’s well better than advertised, but his breaking stuff’s not getting many whiffs.
So….remember last year when we had a catcher who couldn’t catch? Sure am glad the M’s took care of THAT problem.
It certainly seems like the Rays are exploiting a scouting report the way they’re running on Olivo.
That’s two runs in the past two games that they pretty much stole. Jennings would’ve scored anyway, but it’s gotta be disheartening when you give up a cheap single and watch the guy standing on 3rd a couple of pitches later.
This is a depressing debacle by the Mariners. The more I see of Miguel Olivo’s horrendous defense behind the plate, the more I see his signing by the Mariners as a huge mistake by the franchise. I would rather have Josh Bard as our starting catcher. Emphasis on catching the ball, since Olivo fails to do so frequently. But, that was known as a weakness.
Who is the Mariners best catching prospect in the minors?
I feel confident about going into next year with 2 positions in the field, and 2 spots in the starting rotation.
So, just 11 spots that could use an upgrade.
He didn’t cost much, considering.
And we don’t have much in the minors. Josh Bard is still in the organization, which should give you an idea how good the catching depth is at lower levels.
On Friday ESPN didn’t even bother putting together highlights of the Toronto-Seattle game.
“Seattle Mariners Baseball: Don’t even bother!”
It seems like that 17 game streak took the life from Kennedy.
He’s costing the Mariners games with his horrendous defense, and all or nothing offense. The number one attribute you want for your catcher is good defense. Offense is a bonus. Olivo is not the answer for the Mariners behind the plate, and without question it was clearly a bad signing by the franchise.
If you’re going to base the vast majority of your value on one skill you’re going to end up with Dave Valle hitting .097.
Olivo isn’t the answer, yes. But good free agent catchers generally don’t exist. Look at the 2012 free agent catcher list. Olivo sucks, but like so many things, it’s all relative.
This organization has been through about a half dozen catcher since Kenji left/stopped hitting. And they’ve all sucked.
Miguel Olivo is a 0.6 WAR player. Nothing special. About league average.
Josh Bard is a -0.3 WAR player. A minor leaguer who happens to be playing for an MLB team.
Olivo is still leading this team in HR, and is likely to finish the season with the most on the team.
But, yes, his defense sucks. If he does cost us some more games, we get a higher draft pick, and might be able to pick up a good catcher. So look at it that way!
Best catching “prospect” is Adam Moore. 😀
When he’s healthy, he’s been pretty bad. Whenever he starts hitting well, that’s usually a clue he’ll be going down with a major injury soon.
(Do I sound bitter?)
Really, I’d love to see Moore stick behind the plate and finally develop that “can’t miss” potential he was supposed to have. A catcher that’s had several knee surgeries, though, might be someone you take the “under” on if someone offers you some sort of over/under bet.
The Sounders won the day, by far. Fantastic win in the 100-degree heat over Dallas, the team that was just ahead of them in the standings. Sounders now in sole possession of second place in the Western Conference. Also, the storm had a gutty one-point win tonight.
On the otherhand, the Mariners and Seahawks should send each other thank you cards for both being so universally awful. Neither has to worry about poaching the other’s fans.