The 50-man roster for the next two years
There’s been increasing talk about Jack Zduriencik’s future and whether his job will be on the line next season. At this point, we don’t know what the organization will really be shooting for in 2012, or what kind of budget they’ll be shooting with. The 17-game losing streak suggests that a lot more work is needed, while the respectable performance otherwise suggests that the team is tantalizingly close. Another way to look at things is to evaluate what Zduriencik has built (or rebuilt) and see how solid it looks, and after the trade deadline is a good opportunity for that.
Whether or not he gets five years to carry out his plan (not that it was meant to be a “five-year plan”), obviously it will take that long to see how some of the pickups in these deals mature. So I thought it would be good to consider the picture for the next two years, which includes some important transitional questions that a GM would need to anticipate and plan for. What follows is a sense of who’s currently in the organization and might play a significant role over that time frame. It’s not exactly a depth chart for each position, more a collection of who could end up helping fill different spots.
Since we’re talking about the future, the roster building is provisional and incomplete, of course. Only a couple spots are really solidly locked down, and more deals and signings will be needed to plug holes and upgrade positions, starting this winter. Part of this exercise is seeing what’s left if, say, you give up a particular player your trading partner really wants. Not everyone on the list will be part of the picture, as guys go away or get replaced. Some of the prospects would still need to make significant strides and their progress is uncertain, but there’s at least a scenario in which they might contribute.
Right Field
Ichiro: This position is no longer one we can realistically consider to be locked up long-term. Presumably Ichiro will hold onto it for the last year of his contract, but that only gets us to the beginnings of uncertainty. Will his performance recover, over the final months of this season or next year? Will ownership or fan sentiment require an extension even if he doesn’t recover, or at a price that isn’t warranted if he does? Will he decide to return to Japan to close out his career, like Sasaki and Johjima?
Game 114, Mariners at Rangers
Furbush vs. Harrison, 5:05pm.
*UPDATE* Shannon Drayer reports that Brendan Ryan’s going on the 15 day DL, and he’ll be replaced by Luis Rodriguez.
The M’s head to a sweltering Arlington for three games against the first-place Rangers in what’s shaping up to be a rather interesting series – at least, it’s as interesting as it can be considering the M’s are in last place and Felix isn’t pitching.
Charlie Furbush makes his second start for the M’s tonight, coming off a very encouraging start against the A’s in Safeco. Granted, facing the A’s in Safeco is a great training-wheels start, and about as far removed as facing the Rangers in Arlington as you can get without involving the AL East powers. But he missed a lot of bats in his 62 pitches and showed an arsenal that has some real promise.
The first thing you notice about Furbush is that his arm angle and velocity should help him get left-handed hitters out. The angle coupled with a deceptive (though complicated) delivery make it hard to pick up the ball, and then his fastball comes in a bit faster than advertised. Furbush is generally credited with a FB in the 88-91 range, and if you look at pitch fx charts at Fangraphs or Texasleaguers, that’s what you’ll see. But take a look at the fourth graph here: Furbush’s two-seam fastball/sinker is essentially split into two groups – one averaging around 91 mph, and another mixed in with “sliders” at around 83 MPH. The problem is that the pitch fx algorithm doesn’t know what Furbush throws, as he just debuted this year. Thus, the algorithm is missing the fact that Furbush throws a change-up. Pitch fx gurus Mike Fast (of Baseball Prospectus) and Josh Smolow (of The Hardball Times) put him at 16 change-ups out of his 62 pitches in the Oakland start.
This is not only good news in that it can help him get right-handers out, it also means his sinker/two-seam velocity isn’t 88.9, it’s 91. That doesn’t sound like much, but it should give him more margin for error. That’s important, because Furbush still struggles against righties and he’s going to need to develop this pitch if he wants to be more than a fringe starter (Furbush gave up 40 HRs in his MiLB career – 35 of them to righties). But the tools are there; he’s not another lefty soft-tosser that the M’s have trotted out in a futile attempt to find another Jamie Moyer. I’m not expecting great things from a guy with a HR problem facing Texas in Arlington, but I’m intrigued by Furbush’s potential long term.
Today’s line-up features Jack Wilson at SS and in the 2nd spot in the line-up as Brendan Ryan continues to nurse a sore shoulder (*see update above*). I have no problem with Wilson playing; he’s a good defensive back-up. But must he take Ryan’s line-up spot just because it’s Ryan who got hurt? If Ackley takes a day off, would they bat Kennedy (or Wilson) 3rd, because hey, our #3 hitter’s got the day off?
Today’s line-up:
1: Ichiro
2: Wilson
3: Ackley
4: Carp (1B)
5: Olivo
6: Wells (DH)
7: Kennedy (3B)
8: Gutierrez
9: Robinson
Other weekend news bullets:
* Trayvon Robinson debuted, and showed the skills you would expect. Great pieces by Jeff Sullivan before and after the series against the Angels.
* The M’s outscored the Angels 6-4, but lost the series two games to one. The Rainiers split a 4-gamer with Albuquerque in which they were outscored by the Isotopes 39-35. The Rainiers have now scored an even 750 runs this season in 116 games; the Mariners have scored 374 in 113. This isn’t a different level, this is an entirely different sport. Note: the Rainiers put up 12 in their win at Round Rock last night, so the results against the Isotopes aren’t purely park-effect driven. Erasmo Ramirez gave up 6 runs in 5 innings, which should count as a quality start in the PCL.
* In prospect news, while the national attention focused on Stephen Strasburg’s return for the Hagerstown Suns, James Paxton‘s racking up strikeouts and moving up the rankings of the top lefties in the minors. Kevin Goldstein makes the point here ($). While many had Paxton on their radar, few people had him in the M’s top 10 lists pre-season. This isn’t a big oversight – he held out a long time and the reports on his velocity in the indie leagues weren’t exactly reassuring. The breakout seasons from Paxton and Walker are probably the best development in the minor leagues this year, and Paxton could make an impact next season. Another reason why it was easier for Zduriencik to deal Doug Fister, I suppose.
* Rockies reliever Juan Nicasio fractured his neck after being struck by a line drive off the bat of Ian Desmond. Certainly one of the more horrific on-field injuries in recent years, and it comes about four years after minor league coach Mike Coolbaugh died after being struck by a line-drive. Doctors give Nicasio a decent chance to play again, as he didn’t sustain damage to his spinal cord – the fracture occurred on the C1 vertebrae.
* Buster Olney discussed WAR, and the Fangraphs leaderboard on twitter yesterday which occasioned some interesting discussion of the positional adjustments in the metric as well as some snark about Olney as he poked around the new metric. Predictably, Dave Cameron offers the former in a good piece here. There’s a lot of concern about the use of UZR in WAR, though of course you can get a UZR-free WAR over at B-Ref if you want. The point is that it’s best to use the same measuring stick for everyone. WAR is just attempting to frame the debate in a systematic way – that a SS hitting 20 HRs is *different* from a 1B hitting 20 HRs, and that defensive excellence can make a so-so hitter a valuable player. We all know these things, but it’s still valuable to lay out the assumptions before hand (a SS is X runs more valuable than a LF, for example). If people have misgivings about one or more components of WAR, they’re free to ditch them and substitute them with something else. WAR is a process for attempting to summarize a player’s value; it is not a “number.” I know some people lament the fact that there are so many different versions of it – from Baseball-reference’s rWAR to Fangraphs’ fWAR to Baseball Prospectus’ WARP. Putting aside any mathematical issues, (which’d be over my head anyway) I actually like the different iterations. Let’s see the impact of tweaking an assumption here or there, that can sharpen our understanding and maybe point out areas to research. But just make sure you apply the tweak to everyone; putting your thumb on the scale isn’t “tweaking” an experiment.
Minor League Wrap (8/1-7/11)
Good news, everyone, Moniker Madness is on and the M’s have a couple of representatives this year in perennial underachiever Jetsy Extrano (who will likely inexplicably lose to Kipp Schultz in the first round) and Forrest Snow. Moniker Madness is dumb because the player with the most interesting name almost never wins. The past four winners have been Houston Summers, Will Startup, Dusty Napoleon (okay, that one’s all right), and Rowdy Hardy, who somehow beat out SEQUOYAH STONECIPHER in the quarterfinals. It’s dumb.
To the jump!
Read more
Game 113, Mariners at Angels
Happy Felix Day! It’s amazing how much better Felix day feels when the team looks capable of scoring a few runs and hasn’t just lost 10+ games in a row. Felix deserves so much better than he’s got this year, and it’s just nice to see him get a start behind a line-up that’s pretty much MLB quality.
The M’s face Ervin Santana who’s coming off a no-hitter against Cleveland, and is enjoying his best season since 2008. He doesn’t have much of a platoon split, so Casper Wells is back in the line-up in RF (Ichiro gets another DH appearance). I might’ve started Trayvon Robinson in CF to give Guti a day off, but if the M’s really wanted to rest Ichiro’s legs, then I understand the idea behind the line-up. Carp’s at 1B again, which is preferable to Kennedy at 1B for any number of reasons. Brendan Ryan’s out again after being scratched just before the game yesterday. Now would be a good time for a line drive or two, Kyle Seager. I know there’s a big talent gap between AAA and MLB, but this is ridiculous – it’s still baseball, Kyle.
1: Ichiro (DH)
2: Wilson
3: Ackley
4: Carp
5: Wells (RF)
6: Bard
7: Gutierrez
8: Robinson
9: Seager
Game 112, Mariners at Angels
Beavan vs. Chatwood, 6:05 pm (Note the early start time)
In a battle of rookie starters, Tyler Chatwood faces the M’s for the first time. He’s got a decent ERA, and a solid FIP (especially for a 5th starter), but his peripherals suggest he’s been a bit lucky. He’s given up 60 free passes and racked up 60 strikeouts. He’s not an extreme ground-baller, but his lack of command hasn’t hurt him thus far. While he hasn’t been absurdly lucky in his strand rate or BABIP, I’d be worried about a K:BB ratio like Chatwood’s going forward. He’s got good velocity, but I don’t see a real weapon in his arsenal; his contact rate makes Doug Fister’s looks like King Felix’s in comparison. I fully expect him to dominate despite all of the above, because this is still an M’s/Angels game.
Chatwood was sent down to the minors over the all-star break to get some work in and he faced Tacoma – but the only M’s hitter he faced in that start was Mike Carp. He walked 5 in just three innings and ended up taking the loss.
Trayvon Robinson is rewarded for his amazing catch last night with another start in LF, and with a righty on the hill, that means Casper Wells starts on the bench.
1: Ichiro
2: Ryan
3: Ackley
4: Carp (DH)
5: Kennedy (1b)
6: Olivo
7: Gutierrez
8: Seager (3B)
9: Robinson
Game 111, Mariners at Angels
Vargas vs. Weaver, 7:05pm
Hmmm….well, good luck Trayvon.
Line-up:
1: Ichiro
2: Ryan
3: Ackley
4: Carp
5: Kennedy
6: Olivo
7: Wells (DH)
8: Gutierrrez (CF)
9: Robinson (LF)
Dave On Brock And Salk Today
10 am pacific time, 710 am on the radio dial. Or listen online. Or don’t. I’m just offering options.
Greg Halman Optioned to AAA, Trayvon Robinson Called Up
That didn’t take long. Trayvon Robinson’s been in the Mariner organization for all of three games, going 1-9 with 3 walks and 4 Ks, but according to Ryan Divish, he’ll join the Mariners in Anaheim. Greg Halman’s hot streak after his call-up seems like it happened years ago, if it happened at all. His 3 strikeout game yesterday didn’t help dissuade people that he didn’t belong in MLB. Even the Halman fans (and I still want to believe) would agree that he should be in AAA and playing, and not waiting around in Seattle for spot starts against lefties. The Halman detractors will simply point out that he struck out in 32 of his 91 plate appearances, and drew 2 walks.
Robinson’s gunning for the PCL strikeout lead himself, so the M’s are not swapping Halman for a fundamentally different kind of hitter. Still, he’s a switch hitter who can play CF and give Gutierrez a break, or play LF against lefties or in the late innings. I’m really curious to see what Robinson can do in MLB, as he’s another guy that might struggle for a while against quality right-handers like Jered Weaver (why have the M’s brought two guys up from AAA *just* in time to face Jered Weaver?). The big difference between Robinson and Halman is that, at least in the minors, Robinson’s shown the ability to take a walk. Welcome, Trayvon.
The ten day period following Jack Cust’s DFA was up Mike Snow points out that the 10 days weren’t up, so this wasn’t the M’s releasing Cust because they had to – they did so because they could. Would waiting another few days matter? Probably not, so he’s been released.
Dave’s Latest At 710sports.com
Hey all,
Thanks again for all the support over the last few weeks. I’m feeling a lot better and am slowly building my work schedule back up, so I resumed my writing for the 710sports.com blog today, doing a piece on reliever inconsistency and why the M’s should have traded Brandon League.
This isn’t a knock on Brandon League specifically, but on relievers in general. Here are the top 10 relief pitchers in baseball by ERA in 2010, and then their corresponding 2011 ERAs:
1. Hong-Chih Kuo, 1.20; 12.46
2. Joaquin Benoit, 1.34; 4.50
3. Andrew Bailey, 1.47; 2.20 (but only 22 IP due to injury)
4. Chris Perez, 1.71; 3.11
5. Rafael Soriano, 1.73; 4.76 (and only 17 IP due to injury)
6. Mike Adams, 1.76; 1.29
7. Joakim Soria, 1.78; 4.14
8. Brian Wilson, 1.81; 2.88
9. Mariano Rivera, 1.80, 1.74
10. Heath Bell, 1.93; 2.23
I’ll be on with the guys tomorrow to discuss the post and talk about the team. When we have a time, I’ll post it here.
Game 110, Athletics at Mariners
12:40pm, Charlie Furbush vs. Gio Gonzalez
Yes, the last game thread was game 108, and this is game 110. The Mariners 2011 season no longer moves in a linear, martial fashion, and is now an avant garde performance art piece. Games are played almost immediately after one another in short, staccato bursts of activity, then, just as quickly, the empty drone of airliner engines. Nothing more until the evening of August 5th. The Mariners play with these negative spaces with a riotous jumble of their roster – who is this Charlie Furbush? Did Aaron Laffey ever really leave? Kyle Seager is simultaneously here and there.
Furbush makes his first start for the M’s and his third start overall this season. As we saw in his M’s debut, he’s beset by command issues that have led to a home run problem and a high walk rate. These same issues used to plague Gio Gonzalez, the A’s starter today. Gonzalez was a highly-rated pitcher in the White Sox system (he was a top 100 prospect after a stellar 2005), but his HRs spiked after he moved to AA (and the Phillies organization). He also struggled with free passes, which pushed his RA higher than his K rate would predict.
Gonzalez always had the reputation of a “real” prospect following his 2005 breakout season, and his velocity and breaking balls (curve/slider) were seen as MLB quality. Furbush….wasn’t. He had average velocity and got K’s with a deceptive motion and not actual stuff. But while Gonzalez clearly has better velocity (and well above average velo from the left side), the gap isn’t huge. Furbush averaged about 91mph in his starts for Detroit, and Gonzalez averages about 93. While Gonzalez’s velocity increased since his first call-up, the real difference has been a drop in his HR rate, at least in part driven by an increase in his ground-ball rate. That’s something Furbush should focus on in the off-season.
Justin Smoak’s off tonight after he hurt his thumb/hand fielding a grounder in last night’s game, but the M’s aren’t going with Adam Kennedy at first. Instead, they’re using Mike Carp. Here’s to Wedge for making hitting ability a priority.
1: Ichiro (DH)
2: Ryan
3: Ackley
4: Carp (1B)
5: Wells (RF)
6: Gutierrez
7: Bard
8: Wilson (3B)
9: Halman (LF