The Byproduct of Aggressiveness
Over the weekend, the Mariners played four games against the Royals. The Royals pitching staff has the highest walk rate of any team in the American League. They also have the fifth lowest strikeout rate in the league, so overall, they’re just not very good.
The Mariners, in four games against that pitching staff, drew six walks and struck out 51 times. They struck out at least 11 times in each game of the series, becoming just the eighth team in AL history to accomplish that in four consecutive games. No AL team has ever done it in five straight games, so the M’s will go for that record tonight.
Jeff wrote about this yesterday over at Lookout Landing, and Mike touched on it here last week, but the M’s have now become the biggest collection of hacks in baseball. The only teams with worse BB/K ratios are in the NL, where they have to use pitchers several times a game, and even their marks aren’t that much worse than what the M’s are putting up.
It’s easy to attribute all the hacking to youth, and point out that the team is playing a bunch of guys with little to no Major League experience, and to some extent, that’s true – the team’s low walk rates and high strikeout rates are attributable to playing guys like Carlos Peguero, Greg Halman, and Michael Saunders for significant portions of the year. But the organization also targeted Miguel Olivo as the veteran catcher they wanted over the winter, and he has perhaps the worst plate approach of any regular player in Major League Baseball.
At this point, it’s essentially an organizational pandemic. There’s basically one guy – Dustin Ackley – in the whole organization who has a good plan when he goes up to the plate. Justin Smoak has the makings of giving them two guys, but he still chases a lot of pitches he should let pass. Beyond those two, there isn’t a discerning eye to be found anywhere.
Right now, the M’s run out 7 or 8 guys on a nightly basis whose sole focus at the plate is to swing the bat. Eric Wedge has wanted an aggressive team all year, and now he has the most aggressive group of hitters in baseball. The problem is that this approach doesn’t work. It doesn’t score runs. It gives pitchers free outs.
Plain and simple, the Mariners are now far too aggressive at the plate, just like they were during the Bavasi era. They present little challenge to the opposing pitcher not just because they lack talent, but because they lack a good game plan when they step into the batters box. Swing hard is not a recipe for success.
Getting better hitters would help, certainly. We can’t lay the blame at the coaching staff’s feet for not being able to make chicken soup out of chicken crap, but at the same time, Eric Wedge and his staff are here to teach these kids how to become good Major League hitters. And, unfortunately, there’s little to no evidence that any of them are getting better at the plate as the year goes on. No one is having better at-bats, getting into more hitters’ counts, or taking more free passes. If anything, we’re seeing the opposite. Previously patient hitters like Chone Figgins, Franklin Gutierrez, and Mike Carp have all stopped taking free passes this year. Coincidence? Maybe, maybe not.
Aggressiveness is fine in the right context. Stupidity is not. Right now, the M’s approach at the plate has crossed the line into being the latter.
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31 Responses to “The Byproduct of Aggressiveness”
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I’m beginning to think we need to stop giving Jack Z a free pass when it comes to stuff like this. Wedge is his guy, and given how forthright he is – I can’t believe Zduriencik didn’t know, going into this year, this is Wedge’s approach to the game. Plus Z went out and signed Olivo, who’s free-swinging approach this year has been pretty much in line with his past numbers.
I guess what I’m saying is – I wonder if we have been making assumptions about Zduriencik’s modus operandi that weren’t warranted. Maybe we actually have the sort of team he wanted. Sure, the team hired Blengino, and Tango is supposedly an advisor; but do they actually have seats at the table?
And Ichiro. His SO/BB is identical to Ackley’s.
The only other Mariners who have SO/BB better than the league average than the three we just named are either bench players (LRod, Gimenez), gone (Cust, Langerhans) or named Figgins.
It sure does seem like either they value aggressiveness over plate discipline, or else they thought that the current undervalued skill is power hitters who strike out a lot and never walk.
Carp is the only guy who has an arguable case that the change in approach has improved his production, simply because it seems to have actually led to an increase in another skill (power). Everyone else it has caused them to be significantly less effective hitters and made the team incredibly hard to watch.
With Carp, the change actually goes back to last year. And it does appear to be related to the power surge, although that’s not evidence that the change was necessary. Improved conditioning could increase power even with the same approach, and normally over time players with increased power will walk more because they get pitched around.
In any case, the supposed benefits of the tradeoff are notably absent elsewhere. Gutierrez’s power fell off the face of the earth (though probably more for other reasons), and it’s not like this approach could be expected to do anything for the power of guys like Figgins or Brendan Ryan, who hasn’t walked less but certainly strikes out more than he used to.
I would argue that Carp hasn’t even really seen an increase in expected future performance by changing hitter types. His performance this year includes a .363 BABIP, not even close to being sustainable going forward. Regress him more towards the norm for a slow first baseman, and he still projects as a bench player, just like he always did. He’s now just a different kind of bench player.
Seriously, Mike Carp is a bench player? What does the guy have to do to convince you otherwise, Dave? He’s pretty much been lights out in the bigs this year. How does sitting him back on the bench do anything but make your (now tried and true) position a self-fulfilling prophecy?
I couldn’t agree more. How do those numbers not impress and consider us handing the DH job to after all these failed veteran signings!?
I understand the BABIP % and yes he will come back down to Earth but how can you not like the power and line drives he is hitting. There is nothing lucky that I have seen thus far. One just has to watch and see if a player seems to be finding the holes or if a player really is putting good wood on the ball.
A BABIP of .363 by a slow first baseman is pretty much the definition of “lucky”. And note that it’s been trending downward, as expected – as have his numbers (his BABIP was well north of .400 for the first several weeks after his callup).
Nothing against Carp, I’ve enjoyed seeing his hits, especially given this team… it’s just a question of whether this production is sustainable.
Dave, I think you are wrong on this one
I think we all knew it wasn’t sustainable. He is not an MVP caliber player but he is good enough to be an everyday player opposed to a bench player. As ESPN MNF Crew like to say, “C’mon Man!”
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Please, lubin, don’t make Dave turn off comments again. We like Dave and don’t want his head to explode.
On the actual topic of aggressiveness, I wonder if it doesn’t go even higher than Z, seeing as how it seems to be an organization-wide problem that began prior to his arrival. Is there any reason to think Chuck Armstrong would involve himself at the level of pushing a free-swinging approach throughout the organization?
I agree it’s unlikely Carp will continue to hit like a cleanup candidate. But I also agree with lubin_cuban that it’s a bit too pessimistic to assume he’s a bench player. Dave made a pretty good case with the stats, but not every player can be statistically modeled perfectly. Carp could be a good 6/7 hitter.
As far as GMZ, I still think he signed Olivo out of desperation, not because he had wanted him on the team badly. Our catching situation is a disaster. As I recall, there were few good options out there. I think 2012 is the key year for Z as he will be out from under the weight of Bavasi contracts. It was not completely his team, but it is now. He has to reinvest the Silva money coming off the books wisely. He’ll only be weighed down by his own bad signings.
Is there any reason to think Chuck Armstrong would involve himself at the level of pushing a free-swinging approach throughout the organization?
John Olerud and Edgar Martinez say “Hi, remember us?”
I’ll just say that as good as Zduriencik is at eking out maximum value from trades, I’m considerably less impressed with how the managerial choices have gone the last year-plus. Wakamatsu for Wedge is a serious “deck chairs on Titanic” move as far as I can tell, from an in-game strategy perspective, and if Wedge turns all our prospects into hackers… oh, man.
Wedge is not a rookie manager and I can’t believe both him and GMZ have no design at all. Maybe in their opinion the present situation is a required step to develop all round major league hitters tomorrow. I’d grant him one more full season before making any drastic statement. I have not yet forgotten what the M’s were just one year ago – a desperate club in need to be refounded, not simply rebuilt.
It’s amazing how one month of decent hitting – mostly driven by balls falling in – can get so many people to overrate a guy.
For anyone who thinks Mike Carp has proven that he’s a Major League quality starting 1B/DH, please show me all the successful players at those positions with a BB/K ratio of 0.4 or less. Here, I’ll even help you out – here’s a list.
Carp either needs to walk more or strikeout less, because otherwise, he’s a +1 win player. I’m not saying he should be benched right now, but if you’re building a roster and you want to win, he shouldn’t be starting for you.
“Aggressiveness” is a problem if they’re swinging at baseballs that would otherwise end up as balls. (Because they can’t exactly draw a walk by not swinging at pitches in the zone…) So, are they swinging at too many pitches outside?
Not really, for the most part. Here’s the O-Swing%s for the kids. The major league average for O-Swing% is 30.5% according to Fangraphs.
Yay:
Dustin Ackley 23.30%
Justin Smoak 26.70%
Michael Saunders 27.30%
Meh, ok:
Trayvon Robinson 29.00%
Kyle Seager 30.50%
Casper Wells 31.50%
Boo:
Mike Carp 36.60%
Greg Halman 37.70%
Dear god:
Carlos Peguero 48.30%
I know, strike 3 is strike 3 whether it’s via swing-and-miss or just caught looking. But other than room for improvement with Carp and Halman, having these guys lay off pitches to get their O-Swing% down (i.e. to stop turning balls into strikes / outs) won’t make such a huge difference.
The problem is not over-aggressiveness (i.e. hitting baseballs that they shouldn’t). The problem is developing competence (i.e. hitting the baseballs that they should, for line drives and extra base hits). That part… I don’t know, you tell me what we can glean from minor league #s and partial major league seasons to date, about which players have a good approach on balls they should foul off vs. the ones that they should square up on.
To put that in context, these guys are looking up at Fernando Tatis’s career numbers.
I haven’t heard Wedge say anything about being more aggressive in months now. I think this is old hat and blaming a new problem on things in the past.
groundzero55-
This was in today’s Seattle Times article about the game :
Manager Eric Wedge, whose team struck out 51 times in the series, said it was a matter of trying to be more aggressive at the plate.
“I felt like early in the year we were really passive, and these guys are still trying to find it, but they’re up there looking to hit,” he said. “As we continue to get more experience the strikeouts are going to come down and there’s going to be more damage with those swings.”
Sorry, tried to do a link to the article but I guess I still haven’t figured out how.
Here ya go, Bg
This about sums up the team’s problem. Right now, Seager, Wells, Robinson etc. probably shouldn’t be starting either. But, when you are so bad any improvement is welcome. Carp, inflated babip or not, is still an improvement.
For one, if the likes of Seager and Carp were on the bench, what would this blog have to discuss?
That is a very depressing list, yet I can’t help but notice Mr. Morse on that same list.
Even when these guys work a 2-0 or 3-1 count they can’t cover a fastball down the middle. I have never seen so many good pitches to hit fouled off in a season.
I am not as convinced his overall performance level is unsustainable, or something close to it. It isn’t as if Carp is running a LD% that out of whack with his BABIP. Now, I think it is perfectly reasonable both those numbers will regress. The question is how much. I think he can maintain a high line drive rate.
I think there is a potential causal story that explains his LD% rate. He is a good hitter and pitchers threw him strikes and didn’t nibble. He was aggressive and put good contact on mediocre pitchers. As word gets out, pitchers will start throwing him less strikes. Can he remain aggressive on mediocre pitches while laying off balls and good pitches? If so, his LD% may fall, his BABIP will fall, and his AVG will likely fall. His OBP and value does not need to fall.
Now, I haven’t a clue if this story is backed up by facts. To be honest, I am unsure how I would even begin to verify the truthfulness of this story. But… Maybe?
Carp as a 1 WAR DH is probably the best DH in Seattle since Edgar retired. Ultimately, he probably becomes sort of like an Eric Hinske, except for the part about playing third base. Or maybe he keeps getting better and can hold down a fulltime job on a winning team. Not that that will matter any time soon.
I noticed where Mark Trumbo was on that BB/K list. It’s almost like if we had Miguel Olivo playing first base.
An optimist would point out that Carp has displayed both power and plate discipline in his career, though not simultaneously, and that at 25 years old, there is still time for him to put them together. In the minors, he was basically a 2:1 K:BB guy. Also, it’s worth pointing out that when guys begin to show legitimate power, they often then start to draw the walks as pitchers avoid throwing them strikes. Obviously, this may not work for true hackers (e.g. Peguero), but Carp does not strike me as a hacker by nature.