No Need For A Book
This probably doesn’t deserve a response, honestly, but for whatever reason, I can’t resist picking this low hanging fruit.
Years from now, if somebody can be bothered, they might write a treatise on how a franchise like the Mariners — flush with enough cash to fund payrolls in the game’s top tier for several years — could remain so mediocre for so long.
And if they get around to it, they might try reading some of the arguments against bringing in top players that permeate the Mariners blogosphere.
The rest of the piece – drivel is too strong of a word, but the right word is probably at least in that family – is your garden variety “those nerds don’t really want to win” argument. Good teams “man up” and “do what it takes” and “scratch their nuts” and all that crap. It’s bad baseball philosophy mixed with Type A machoism, and facts will not get in its way.
Over here, we deal in facts. So, let’s just set the record straight and tell whatever aspiring author is thinking about writing a book about why the Mariners have been mediocre for so long that the subject doesn’t need a book. In fact, it doesn’t even need an overly long blog post. You want to know why the Mariners have been bad for most of the last decade? It’s really easy.
November 7th, 2003 – The Seattle Mariners hired Bill Bavasi as General Manager.
January 8th, 2004 – The Seattle Mariners traded Carlos Guillen for Ramon Santiago.
November 15th, 2004 – The Seattle Mariners signed Richie Sexson to a 4 year, $50 million contract.
December 22nd, 2005 – The Seattle Mariners signed Jarrod Washburn to a 4 year, $37 million contract.
June 30th, 2006 – The Seattle Mariners traded Asdrubal Cabrera for Eduardo Perez.
July 26th, 2006 – The Seattle Mariners traded Shin-Soo Choo for Ben Broussard.
December 7th, 2006 – The Seattle Mariners traded Rafael Soriano for Horacio Ramirez.
December 18th, 2006 – The Seattle Mariners traded Chris Snelling and Emiliano Fruto for Jose Vidro.
December 20th, 2007 – The Seattle Mariners signed Carlos Silva to a four year, $48 million contract.
February 8th, 2008 – The Seattle Mariners traded Adam Jones, George Sherrill, Chris Tillman, Tony Butler, and Kam Mickolio for Erik Bedard.
For the sake of brevity, we’re skipping over other winning decisions such as signing Scott Spiezio to be the third baseman in 2004, deciding on Carl Everett to serve as the team’s DH in 2006, or bringing in Jeff Weaver to fix the rotation in 2007. These aren’t all the disastrous decisions that were made during Bavasi’s time at the helm, but they get the point across well enough.
From the winter of 2003 until the end of the 2008 season, the Mariners were the worst run baseball operations department in the sport. They did stupid thing on top of stupid thing, often justifying these bewildering moves with reasons like “he’s a clutch hitter” or “we think he’s a winner.” Talented young players were shipped off to succeed elsewhere, while the team threw money at “proven veterans” who were simply overrated by a group of people who were evaluating players the way it was done in the 1980s.
It had nothing to do with settling for mediocrity or accepting defeat. The Mariners tried to win, but they just sucked at it because the people in charge were unable to identify good players from bad ones. They threw money at free agents to try and cover up for the fact that they didn’t have enough homegrown talent on hand, often because they’d already traded away a kid who turned out to be exactly what they needed down the line. The rosters consisted of overrated, overpaid, and just downright crappy players who had jobs simply because they had experience and some athleticism.
The Mariners failures over the last 10 years have absolutely nothing to do with desire to win, commitment to doing what it takes, or any other emotional appeal that people who don’t understand how to construct winning baseball teams like to try and sell to the masses. The Mariners have spent a long time losing baseball games because they hired a bad General Manager and watched him systematically dismantle the overall organizational talent level. They lost because they thought it would be a good idea to spend big on aging mediocre talents and bet the farm on a high risk pitcher with significant red flags. They lost because they traded away good young talent for bad old talent in an effort to win in the present, and because the front office simply didn’t understand how to build a baseball team in the modern era.
The only book necessary on the failures of the Mariners over the last 10 years is a transaction log. Simply trying to paint it any other way is revisionist history, and in this case, it’s just agenda-pushing revisionist history. I guess when the facts are against you, make emotional appeals.
Don’t buy into any of that crap. Good teams win because they understand how to value player contributions on the field and figure out how to build a roster full of players who can produce beyond what they cost. Bad teams do things like sign a big name free agent to prove that they want to win to their fan bases and beat writers.
See, this is another case in which the MSM continue to rile up the “masses” of casual fans incorrectly which will make things harder on the organization when what they (incorrectly) want doesn’t happen.
No matter where you look, whether the paper, ESPN or KJR – no one cares about the numbers. All they seem to do is pander to the casual fan’s wishes.
While I would argue that we in Seattle should be a smarter bunch, we also are the same people who see an inch of snow and think the world is ending, or see rain and suddenly forget how to drive.
As much as the government (both parties IMO) has pissed me off by not representing the people, it’s beginning to piss me off more that none of the MSM here seems to even care about sabermetrics, or even take the time to learn it. Not Brock and Fark, not Calabro or Mohr, not Mitch nor Softy…
All are ignorant. And that’s a best case statement.
My question is – how do we somehow make our voices heard when the MSM won’t give us the time of day except when it suits them to promote THEIR agenda?
You want a pretty interesting article? Check out this one from Tyler Kepner of the New York Times last year.
On May 27, 2010, Kepner did a story on Shin Soo Choo. In the article, he pondered exactly how it was that the Mariners ever let Choo go. Bill Bavasi gave Kepner an interview which he used in the article. Bavasi’s comments are quite telling regarding the inner workings of the Mariners Front Office …
Source:
It’s kind of ironic actually. From the minute Bill Bavasi was hired in November of 2003, it’s clear that ownership recognized that its big name stars were getting old and saw the cliff coming. Fearing the inevitable drop-off in attendance and revenue, they ordered him to “win now” and forget about plans for rebuilding. Forsaking efforts to truly boost the farm system, Bavasi exchanged young upcoming talent for established veteran leadership, filling the rosters chock full of experienced high priced mercenaries. The result was also inevitable – too much money being paid out for guys who were not living up to the contracts they’d signed.
It’s interesting how these initial fears by ownership of losing revenue led to overspending and closing off the one sure pipeline for maintaining financial sanity and long term success – the farm system. When they finally recognized the error of their ways, the owners then moved to compensate by restricting payroll in order to protect the bottom line of investors … which led to decreased production on the field, lower attendance for games, and lower overall revenue. Talk about a self-fulfilling prophecy. And given the resources this club has(or maybe now had) at its fingertips — all so unnecessary.
Here’s what I don’t get… so many of our former players go elsewhere and star. Casey Kotchman .217 as a Mariner, .306 in TB. Adrian Beltre .265 with 8 HR to .321 with 28 HR in BOS and .296 with 32 HR in TEX. Also look at Mike Morse in Washington .303 with 31 HR last year. These are just the guys off the top of my head and it seems to happen year after year. Obviously we have had some talent, but can’t make it produce in Seattle – is it the coaching or the clubhouse? Yes, the park has something to do with it, but not enough to make an all-star into a minor leaguer. Beltre hit well enough when he came back to Seattle.
I have an idea… why not create a deck of cards, with all the Bavasi moves printed on them? You could rank them based on screw-ups, ace being the highest/worst (ie: Ace of spades, the Bedard deal. Ace of hearts, the Silva signing, etc). You could add a little humor to them, so it’s a full deck of nothing but negativity. This would be easier than a book quick to the point(s).
All the proceeds could go towards a charity, or payroll!
It took me quite a while, but I finally dumped Baker this weekend. Both on Facebook and from my bookmarks. I always felt it was good to read a different angle on a topic, even if I didn’t agree with that angle. It’s good to keep a broad perspective. The other thing for me is I’m not that smart about baseball analysis. Which is why I like to read this blog, Baker and others.
That was until Baker started writing on his Facebook about topics I am quite familiar with and knowledgeable in. I realized how closed-minded he is to opposing view points. I realized just how much objectivity he lacks in a topic he knows nothing about. I realized how he can not overcome his built in biases and ignores the facts that are presented to him. How he would even refuse to research those facts before making a judgement on the topic.
That got me wondering: If he’s that type of person, how can he write an objective article about baseball? I know people have their opinions, and that is fine. I know opinions are subjective. But if your opinion is based on biases and an inability to be objective about a topic your opinion becomes uneducated, uninformed and meaningless. At least to me. I’m looking for baseball analysis (and even baseball opinions) that are based on objective reasoning. Baker doesn’t have that. I see that now.
Sorry it took me so long to understand why the USSM dumped his link from your blog. I’ve dumped all of mine now too.
*humor so it’s not a full deck of negativity
Well said, Dave.
If I may defend Bavasi a little bit:
Carlos Guillen: Bavasi was under order to trade him (ownership was upset with Guillen for a DUI, IIRC). And nobody expected him to become as good as he became.
Asdrubal Cabrera: Seemed blocked by a certain Yuniesky Betancourt.
Shin-So Choo: Nobody expected him to post a season with an OBP of .400. When he was traded, people thought he wouldn’t be more than a fourth outfielder.
^ He was runnin’ the ship and the moves proved bad. Excuses are limited. You could argue further that he had poor talent evaluation skills. Dumping guys in the farm because you’re sure that an unproven player will pan-out, isn’t wise at all.
My idea was more of joke anyway;)
I’ve been wondering why you dropped Geoff from your links section. I finally get it.
I unfriended him as well. I heart Larry Stone.
If I may defend Bavasi a little bit:
Carlos Guillen: Bavasi was under order to trade him (ownership was upset with Guillen for a DUI, IIRC). And nobody expected him to become as good as he became.
Shin-So Choo: Nobody expected him to post a season with an OBP of .400. When he was traded, people thought he wouldn’t be more than a fourth outfielder.
this speaks volumes.
I consciously avoid the continuous stream of garbage Baker writes, and it pains me that I even have to see reference to it here. Can’t we just agree that he’s a mental midget with more ego than brains and leave it at that?
“We were on strict orders when I got there that we were not going to tolerate any five-year plans,” said Bavasi, now a special assistant with the Cincinnati Reds. “They felt that five-year plans usually turn into seven- or eight-year plans, and it’s true. That made sense — just keep getting better — but that also brought with it different pressures.”
Everyone kind of skipped over this little tid-bit. What if that’s the same thinking JackZ is having or being forced to have? I realize most of the people here at USSM are against dropping money on Fielder but other than this site, everything is leading that way.
So, DAVE. What if the M’s do sign Fielder? Where do we go from there?
I have an idea. I think we have enough people here to have a voice. So I say whenever the MSM talks about signing Fielder or any such other move, we flood the call lines saying why it’s a bad idea. Chances are they’ll stop taking our calls, but in the meantime we’ll slam the hosts for making such a suggestion.
Just one guy’s opinion here, of course, but – it’d be nice if people could make their points without resorting to insults and name-calling.
It is so very, very hard to get people to see the M’s in any realistic fashion.
It is very difficult to get a lot people to accurately view what a mess almost the entire organization was top to bottom after the 2008 season. They can’t see considerable progress made since and how the W/L totals of the team of the last couple years are not the true measure of these advancements.
They were not your usual 101 loss team with a lot of youthful fallback set to arrive shortly.
If people are in denial about the source of the problem they are highly unlikely to acccept the solutions. So Zduriencik is judged like he took over the M’s after 1999 like Gillick instead of taking on the 2008 disaster.
Zduriencik has had to deal with more than just filling some roster spots here and there.
They should make reasonable moves to upgrade and move forwards. I believe Zdureincik is always open to doing just that. And I am not using reasonable as a catch word for cheap, just whatever constitutes a good move at this juncture.
Nobody likes (or should like) going back and looking at the spilled milk of the Bavasi era.
But for some to understand where we are and where we are going it sure seems necessary even at this point so far removed from that era.
I am pretty sure most here would always prefer to look forwards.
Dave,
Your list of horrible transactions from the Bavasi regime is pretty close to spot on, but I have to (still) disagree that the Vidro deal belongs in that discussion. I know he was a favorite here, but by then Snelling was a shell of his former self, and Fruto has never amounted to anything important. For one season, Vidro hit pretty well. His OPS in 2007 was .775. Of ALL the Mariners in 2011, only Mike Carp and Alex Liddi had an OPS higher than that. I know Vidro has been a whipping boy here for a number of years, but in retrospect, that trade wasn’t so bad.
The Vidro trade was bad because we paid him $16M.
Wouldn’t .775OPS be below average for an DH?
Also–Jack Z please do something interesting soon! I just watched 100 laps of NASCAR and I feel dumber.
Ok and in 2008 he had an OPS of .612 and we paid him $8.5M
No, he had a wRC+ of 110.
Mariners traded two interesting pieces for Jose Vidro (Prince Fielder body type; Chone Figgins plate approach) and had to pay a total of $12 Million extra for him over two years (Nationals gave $4 million total for compensation).
Jose Vidro was kind enough to provide us with -0.3 WAR during his time here.
Those pieces the team gave up didn’t pan out, yet we still lost that trade. In retrospect, the trade is still terrible.
I wouldn’t trust Geoff Baker to pump my gas, much less make recommendations about MLB players.
Of course, as long as he stays in a medium that no one reads any longer, writing for a right-wing rag, we’ll all be safe.
you’re joking, right? As a conservative, i assure you, the Times is not right wing. It’s quite liberal.Not as much as the Stranger or the Weekly or the NY Times, but definately not conservative. ….neither is Geoff.
Not so much political talk, please. The measurement tools are quite a bit worse than what you can find in baseball (or even Baker’s blog).
Since the only job of a DH is to hit, a league average DH has a higher offensive output than the overall league average.
In 2007 the league average wRC+ from the DH position was 112. At 110 wRC+ Vidro was a bit below league average as a DH in 2007.
That 110 wRC+ in 2007 was also the highest that Vidro posted since 2003. The acquisition of Vidro to serve as DH kind of typified everything that was screwed up about the Mariners in the Bavasi years.
What really bothered me about the Baker piece (which I’ll admit I read after Dave’s) was that it sounded so much like a letter to editor or reply to a blog post. It seemed so typical fan and so devoid of rational analysis. It was really weird.
This response to Baker has been a long time coming…and it’s hard to imagine how the takedown could have been more surgical, or more complete.
Thanks, Dave.
Hello all…
SoZ in Seoul, South Korea here. Word is on Yahoo! that Mariners OF Greg Halman was stabbed to death Monday in Rotterdam.
His 22-year-old brother is being held on suspicion of the stabbing.
You all might get more word before I do…but if I hear anything else, I will post it in the most appropriate post I can find.
24 is too young to go, and those circumstances are just lousy. Prayers to the Halman family.
There’s no word yet from espn.com, mlb.com, or cnnsi.com, but it’s on Bloomberg. What a waste if this is confirmed…I echo Zavaras.
Reuters and ESPN now have the story, just as Zavaras described it. No other detail.
Wow, what a sad turn of events for a promising young guy. RIP Greg…
my heart goes out to Greg Halman’s family and friends.
All the posters ripping on Jack for Figgins? Nobody I know was against that signing. Sure, it went bad quickly but really? Figgins was, on paper, a good move that many of us thought would work to make us better.
Figgins was not the groan inducer that Aurilia, Silva, Everett and others were. Sorry, it didn’t work but that doesn’t mean Jack should be buried for it. Every GM has a signing that goes south. For Bavasi that was the majority of them.
Looking at Figgins numbers in Anaheim, I thought it would work here. It didn’t so hopefully management moves him and learns. At least Jack and company employ Saber principles when making decisions.
Good article Dave. I agree 100% with your stance on this.
As for Jack’s signings? Many low risk, high reward gambles that sometimes worked, other times didn’t. One fact, they didn’t tie us down with the kind of long term pain that Bavasi left us with.
My thoughts and prayers are with the Halman family.
I haven’t seen an answer to my post, so I think it got lost… Here it is again…
Here’s what I don’t get… so many of our former players go elsewhere and star. Casey Kotchman .217 as a Mariner, .306 in TB. Adrian Beltre .265 with 8 HR to .321 with 28 HR in BOS and .296 with 32 HR in TEX. Also look at Mike Morse in Washington .303 with 31 HR last year. These are just the guys off the top of my head and it seems to happen year after year. Obviously we have had some talent, but can’t make it produce in Seattle – is it the coaching or the clubhouse? Yes, the park has something to do with it, but not enough to make an all-star into a minor leaguer. Beltre hit well enough when he came back to Seattle as a Red Sock.
@Marinersince77:
It’s a perception issue. There are a lot of former Ms players who left and didn’t get any better. Here’s a somewhat outdated list:
WHY DO THEY ALWAYS GET BETTER
Regarding the players you mention:
Kotchman’s improvement is mostly driven by batting average on balls in play. Beltre went from the worst homefield for a right-handed pull-hitter to two that fit his particular skillset. Mike Morse figured something out and reached his prime age.
If the problem is that the mainstream media is ignoring, misrepresenting, and misunderstanding what people in the sabermetrics community are saying, then I don’t think the solution is ignoring, misrepresenting, and misunderstanding what the people in the mainstream media are saying. Geoff Baker said absolutely nothing about scratching anyone’s nuts anywhere in this piece. I recognize this is hyperbole, but at the same time it doesn’t address what that article was actually about.
I am in no way disputing the facts that you present in this article, but these facts don’t directly refute the main point of that article.
The heat transfer coefficient of a turkey is 19.252 W/m^2K is a fact. Doesn’t mean I can’t buy a 25 lb. turkey instead of a 10 lb. turkey.
Maybe Baker is blowing hot air but what IS happening is the pieces that you would normally grab instead are slowly disappearing ( Doumit, Sizemore, Snyder etc). So the question comes up IF Dr Z is NOT going after someone like Fielder then why is he letting potential good fits leave the market????I realize he may not have much choice as some of these players may have made up their mind quickly but based on what they have been getting for contracts, I dont see them as extravagant choices. Also, the arguement that Fielder will/might flame out by the time the Mariners have a team good enough to contend seems bogus. A balance on a team MUST be reached or you end up with the 2002/2003 Mariners where everyone is getting old at the same time and no MLB ready replacements are available. I would love to see a team of 25 year olds play together for 10 years but that wont happen either. As their salaries go up the team cant afford them and they get traded. Striking a balance plus putting in a core (four or five above average offensive players and at least two top starters) is where the Mariners will be until more money is freed up. Fielder is a good investment IF the Mariners accept the risk and put his salary into the budget above and beyond the 93-94 million. Looking where the CBA put the Mariners, a budget less than 115 million is probably not going to do very well anyway. Really even without accepting the need to bump up the money for a Fielder, this team needs to bump it up so their mistakes with Figgins and to some extent overpayment on Ichiro this year can be compensated for rather than waiting ANOTHER year for more money to be freed up.
(Sigh)….might be worthwhile to point out that Jack Z’s record after 3 years is only 3 wins better than Bavasi’s after his first three years and that to tie Bavasi’s record after 4 years, the Mariners will need to win 85 games in 2012 because the terrible Bavasi achieved 88 wins in his fourth year. Since it all comes down to wins and losses, it would be nice if, for once, the same critical analysis was applied to Jack Z.