Rangers Win Darvish Posting
You’ve probably heard by now, but the Rangers won the bidding for Yu Darvish, putting up $51.7 million to just barely edge out what Boston paid for the rights to Daisuke Matsuzaka back in 2006. They now have a month to negotiate with Darvish on a contract, and given their interest level and his desire to pitch in the US, it’s extremely likely that a deal will get done. While it’s not a guarantee, Darvish will likely join the Rangers next year.
I know this is going to ignite even more of the “we have to respond!” panic that came up when the Angels signed Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson. I know the natural sentiment is to see what Texas and Anaheim are doing and feel like the Mariners are doomed unless they play the same game. I just ask that instead of panicking, you look at baseball history and realize that one player just doesn’t make that big of a difference.
The Mariners aren’t screwed any more so now than they were when they traded Ken Griffey Jr in 2000 or watched Alex Rodriguez leave for Texas in 2001. History is absolutely littered with teams who made big off-season splashes, were anointed champions during the winter, and then got hit in the face with the reality that baseball is a team sport full of unexpected variation. Last winter, the Red Sox were the team that landed two superstars and added them to an already stacked roster, and yet, they failed to make the playoffs. The Phillies added Cliff Lee to build an all-time great rotation and got bounced in the first round of the playoffs. The White Sox spent $119 million on players last winter, and after a complete disaster, they’re now in rebuilding mode and selling off talent left and right.
The Angels and Rangers are quality opponents, and the Mariners are going to have to improve their roster to keep up with those two teams. That reality doesn’t call for panic, though – it requires a steady, non-emotional hand that sees the bigger picture and realizes that the Mariners need to simply concentrate on adding to the talent level in the organization. We can have a reasonable conversation about the most effective ways to do that, but there’s no reason to freak out and think that the moves that Texas and Anaheim have made this winter means that the Mariners future is bleak unless they overreact and (sign Fielder, raise the payroll, trade Felix, insert other emotional reactions here).
The AL West is full of good organizations. Those good organizations are going to continue to compete for talent and push each other for the division title. This is true today, and it was true a month ago. As long as the Mariners keep their eyes on the prize, they’ll be fine. Don’t freak out.
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The Rays say “hello”.
Actually, I’m not sure we should jump on a $130 million/10 year deal for Prince Fielder.
How much WAR do we think Prince will produce over the life of that contract? He’s not the type to age well, so even if he has 3-4 outstanding seasons (e.g. 5+ WAR), you still might be talking about less than 30 WAR total over the contract life, or even closer to 25. Given that, a $130MM/10 contract would work out to paying close to the current average free agent rate for WAR ($5MM/WAR) over the contract life. Investing that much at that high a rate over 10 years doesn’t thrill me, especially compared with how much WAR Jack could buy with the money if spent in other ways. For example, wouldn’t the team be much better off if they purchased 65 WAR for $130MM, at a price of $2MM/WAR?
Westside guy sez:
On the contrary – if we could get him for 10 years and 130 million, per your post… I’d say we should jump on it. 😀 But I’m guessing you meant 230 million.
Why not? Don’t we want a smarter fanbase?
[dude, stop it]
You’re right that teams making a big splash in the offseason doesn’t alsways work out. But an already good team adding talent to get better probably will The Rangers and Angels are already significantly better than the Mariners and have improved their team. The Mariners have done little to nothing and may have even fallen back a little from last year. How that plays with the fan base will have a very large impact on how their overall plan developes. If the fans desert them in droves, like I predict, it’s going to be a disaster for years to come.
At the risk of repeating what has already been said; this off season has been all but horrible for the Ms. not because of what other teams are doing and nut because they aren’t making a big splash, but because they seem to be standing pat! We are well on our way to another 90 loss season and who can get excited about that? I am disappointed in zduriencik because it seems that he isn’t willing to take any risks this season…everyone else had seemingly gotten better while the Ms sit on their hands. I’m not advocating a fielder signing or Felix trade. But they absolutely need to improve their roster at the regular positions. They should be all over Beltran in my opinion.
The funny thing is, I don’t listen to sports radio at all. I’m getting this information from the Twitter list mariners-writers, which I subscribe to and is curated by…Dave.
I have been a Mariner’s fan and a baseball fan for years and years. Obviously, we have seen the good and the bad during that time with the Mariners. This last year and now this offseason are a little different for some reason though and I have a hard time putting my finger on it.
I can tell you this, I am not freaking out. I am losing interest very quickly though. Last year was the first year I haven’t gone to a Mariners game in a very long time. Good or bad year didn’t matter. I used to hit the Diamond Club, get groups together for opening day, etc, etc. Not last year though. And right now, it looks like not this year either. I just can’t see myself spending the money and time on something that just isn’t fun or entertaining anymore.
Just my two cents for the “average fan’s” point of view.
I know this does not pertain to this thread, and I apologize ahead of time. However, Jon Heyman tweeted that the Mariners have in fact offered Fielder a contract. Not that it really means anything, as everyone pretty much assumed they would extend an offer eventually. Just thought I would get it out there.
The Rangers may have gone after Darvish, but they didn’t win in 2010 and 2011 via that route. Their payroll in 2011 was similar to the Mariners payroll, but much less in 2010 and the several years before.
They will have to spend to maintain what they have, but they didn’t spend big to get there.
60 days, dude, there’s still 60 days.
http://tinyurl.com/ST2012clock
Ok, maybe my frustration was showing in my former post. I have a question that just came to my mind.
Why should we care about the financial health of our favorite club and keep payroll down when the Rangers can go through bankruptcy, switch ownership and then come out with an even larger payroll in the following years?
I know some people will face_palm at this question but I just need it spelled out for me I think.
I guess the reality is that the Mariners franchise is financially smart and to think that they would haphazardly spend money to try to win would be outside the Mariners reality. Look, I answered my own question!
Do we really know this? Is there any objective data where our farm system is on the scale of Great-Good-Fair-Poor-Terrible?
I have not heard about any really can’t-miss all-stud position players coming up. Some promising pitching maybe but nobody with a bat worth mentioning.
Seriously, I would love to know if our farm system is really good or just not as bad as it used to be.
Potential TV deal renewal in 2015 changes everything.
Build around cheap pitching. I didn’t understand it until now but it makes perfect sense – arbitration cost for our players now become moot because of the potential TV deal. Long-term contracts are less constraining when you don’t have arbitration raises to worry about.
With cheap pitching, you can afford to spend $70M on offense. Ackley, Smoak, Franklin are locks; Carp, Wells, Seager are potentials. That leaves $70M for 3-6 spots, depending on how many potentials make it. Even with Fielder, at worst you’re left with $45M for 5 spots. If just one OFer works out, and we punt 3B to Seager, that’s $45M for a Catcher and 2 OFers. Good Catchers and OFers hit the FA market like candy for the next 2 years. It’s like the perfect storm.
The plan is working. Most of us can’t see it. The goal is to contend in 2014 at the latest, for the 2015 ratings/attendance boost. No wonder we have no contracts after the 2013 season besides Felix – that’s the last off-season before it’s too late. Patience. Build around young pitching. And we’ll contend.
Vinny Catricala and Guillermo Pimentel say hi.
Their bats are very worth mentioning. There are others, too.
And “can’t-miss studs” miss all the time. Trust the owner of 17 Ruben Rivera rookie cards on this one.
A bit of a tangent, but related with regard to big-name signings… it was interesting to hear Mike Blowers on this week’s “Hot Stove League” state that despite the moves Anaheim has already made, he isn’t a believer in signing guys like Fielder and Pujols to these absurdly long expensive contracts.
I agree with the “stay the course” approach to building this team. But if we are now 3 or 4 years of away from competing, then why the hell is Jack Z so reluctant to trade Felix. He would bring back a significant haul of top notch prospects. I see absolutely no point in keeping him around if we have zero chance of competing anytime soon. It is not fair to keep him around for the fan base. Jack Z must know something that no one else does. Something along the lines of Felix telling him that regardless of the stature of the team in 2015, he wants to be a Mariner for his entire career. It seems highly unlikely, but it is the only reason I can think of that would explain Jack Z’s reluctance to trade him.
“Also, a moment of silence for Darvish’s career possibly getting cut short by Nolan Ryan overworking him.”
Um, not to be picky or anything, but Japanese pitchers regularly take on much larger workloads in terms of overall volume per year worked than do pitchers in American pro-baseball. 300 pitch “throw days” between starts, among other things, are commonplace in Japanese pitcher preparation. Next to which the typical workload of MLB and MiLB pitchers pale in comparison.
FWIW, this has been a major source of contention between Daisuke Matsuzaka and the BoSox and Daisuke claims that his injury woes are associated with decreased workload the BoSox demanded of him relative to how he prepared in Japan.
So no, I do not think Ryan’s attitudes toward pitcher work volume are going to cut Darvish’s career short.
Ackley, Smoak, Franklin are locks
I wouldn’t argue with Ackley being someone with strong long-term potential based on his play so far, but if someone with nearly 1000 plate appearances in MLB consisting of well-below average play, and someone with less than 100 appearances in AA (and A ball performance in 2010 that’s good but not ZOMG DESTROYING THE LEAGUE) are your idea of “locks” we need to start thinking about signing to long term deals once the Fox contract gets renegotiated three or four years from now, you need to switch your brand of Kool-Aid from teal.
Let’s see Smoak actually be league-average for a complete year, and let’s see Nick Franklin have a very impressive season in the high minors before we start penciling them in for the 2015 All-Star game.
The plan is working. Most of us can’t see it. The goal is to contend in 2014 at the latest, for the 2015 ratings/attendance boost.
If that’s the plan, it’s a lousy plan. Why?
I give you the 2007 Cleveland Indians. Great management team (you might remember USSM having a banner asking for us to hire their assistant GM back in the day). A talent core of Victor Martinez, Cliff Lee, CC Sabathia, Grady Sizemore. Eric Wedge as the manager. 96 win season. A division with some pretty questionable competition that likes to make questionable decisions. They’d gone through some low years before, and built up talent.
And what happened?
2009: 81-81 (16 games out in July, incidentally)
2009: 65-97
2010: 69-93
2011: 80-82
I think this really illustrates the fallacy of “if we have a smart GM and a plan to rebuild the talent base with kids from the farm and smart trades, success is guaranteed”. (If you want more evidence of this, Billy Beane says “Hi, welcome to my last 5 or so years”.)
The simple fact is we don’t know the future, and the further away we try to project from the here and now to the future, the less we know about how players will develop, which ones will run into roadblocks, get injured, how the market for talent (and the team’s opportunities in that market) will change, what have you- even stupid random luck (it’s perfectly possible to have an 85-90 win true talent team win 75 just on dumb bad luck). This is why Glorious Five Year Plans need to stay dead and buried with the Soviet Union. There shouldn’t be a plan for 2014-2015, because it depends on so many things we don’t know yet that it’s a fool’s errand to plan for it.
Larry Bernandez probably has a lot to do with it. As Ichiro approaches the end of his career, keeping Felix gives a centerpiece to the marketing efforts of this team to the “casual” fans.
Let’s just hope the Rangers sign Darvish to a 4-5 year, $65-$80 million deal, and hope he pitches like Richie Sexson hit. Pujols can do the same. Suddenly the Mariners would have a chance with a couple above average pickups.
“Jack Z must know something that no one else does.”
After hearing Jack Z downplay rumors of an offer to Prince Fielder, and his very careful wording of “when the time comes we’ll make the moves necessary” I think Z probably HAS the ability to get more payroll when he needs it, but that he is absolutely following a plan and timeline, and waiting for the right moment to go to ownership for a bump in the budget. I say this because I fully believe when he was interviewing to be the GM here he would have brought up payroll and its limitations. I think he wants to win and be seen as a successful GM so I’m pretty sure his LONG TERM plan is not to penny pinch and buy used-up free agents every year.
But I also think he absolutely believes now is NOT the time yet, as he most likely is waiting for there to be talent from within the farm system to build around more expensive free agents.
To borrow a metaphor from my 4 year old and his Wii Mario Karts marathons, if you use the mushroom speed boosts (free agent acquisitions) at the right time you can make up huge ground and pass a bunch of the other karts on your way to the finish line, and a victory (or at least close). BUT! If you start from too far behind, and use your mushrooms too early, you only make it up to about the middle of the pack and finish in 5th or 6th place, and pretty much wasted your time using the mushrooms, unless you’re happy with a middle of the pack finish.
I think Z is waiting to unlock some faster cars and characters (prospects who make the bigs) first before he starts using up mushrooms and racing for the checkered flag.
(Z kinda looks like King Boo, by the way.)
Update:
Here’s one I wouldn’t have minded landing…
“The Orioles have officially signed Endy Chavez to a one-year, $1.5MM major league deal.”
For that money, with the numbers he put up in Texas (.301/.323/.426), he’d be a great reserve/insurance CF/LF/pinch runner/defensive sub (for Carp) option.
If JackZ’s plan is to “stay the course” or build around cheap pitching or wait until 2014 to make his major free agent acquisitions, why not say so?
I’d rather be conditioned for patience than trying to deal with his close-to-the-vest non-disclosures.
And I don’t see any competitive advantage lost by being more open about not being competitive in the market. The fanbase is going to be more displeased with dashed hopes than a dose of reality.
He’s been preaching patience and “stay the course” all off-season. You need to listen to some interviews and read his quotes.
We don’t need to wait until 2014 to make an acquisition though, that’s the point people miss. We can get Fielder, and have it be useful to our long-term plan. That’s why Z made an offer. Just realize if we miss out, we have other options. The goal is 2014 – but that doesn’t mean punt 2012/2013.
Using the Mario Kart analogy – Lap 1 is 2012, Lap 2 is 2013, and Lap 3 is 2014. The better we finish Lap 1/2, the more likely it is we finish Lap 3 on top. But in the long-run, the only thing that matters is that we finish 1st after Lap 3. Because if we don’t, Z loses his job, Felix leaves for NY, and we don’t get the big TV contract we need to keep up with TEX/LAA, OAK’s new stadium/city, and HOU’s new owners. So just keep in mind we don’t need to be 1st during Lap 1/2; we just need to be good enough so that when Lap 3 comes, we can pull out all our tricks to get that 1st place.
Also, be very careful if Bowser is right behind you as you’re approaching the finish line.
While I’m more for building than blind spending, in order to aquire the talent (mushrooms, turtle shells, banana peels, and the occasional ligtning bolt) you need fans and steady revenue (questions blocks) in order to continue to aquire that talent.
In Mario Kart, the question blocks always respawn instantaneously. In MLB, you need to tend to them so they don’t dissapear.
I don’t want our question blocks to dissapear. Then winning the race will become all but impossible.
Logan Morrison probably should avoid playing in Seattle. Heh.
Been beating this thread drum for awhile now. No wonder I never post on here anymore.
SexyMarinersFan
You’ll find that forum discussions here have a very organic flow to them. What starts as a discussion on Joey Votto will often become a discussion on TV ratings or the King’s Court or a Hultzen/Walker comparrison.
I present to you a challenge. Rather than post on your disappointment over the lack of change in subject, engage yourself in inspiring a new discussin. It’s really quite easy on this site. It’s a big reason why I come here.
Fine. I wouldn’t sign Fielder for more than 7 years at $180. If Boras wants more, I pull out and look elsewhere.
Wait for a trade to develop or make an offer to someone for a really good utility guy(like McLemore used to be). Maybe League or Vargas gets us that piece.
I think we should develop Pineda more before we even start to discuss trading him, unless it’s for a big time high upside bat like a Justin Smoak. Start the rest of the rotation out with Vargas, Beavan, and Hultzen.
The M’s could move Furbush back to the bullpen to team up with Sherrill. Then you’ve got League, Kelley, Ruffin, and Wilhelmson to fill out the remaining spots.
If we trade Pineda, I’d hope to get a Stanton or Posey or Heyward, though I understand we’d probably have to add to get them. If he develops he might be able to net one of them on his own.
Either way, I agree; I almost think we’d be “selling low” on him after this season. He’s somewhat fresh off an arm injury, and doesn’t seem to quite have the intangibles that come with a little experience.
Having a rotation of Felix, Pineda, Hultzen, Paxton, and Walker could be one for the ages though, should everything work out (fingers crossed).
Right.. just like having a rotation with Ryan Anderson, Gil Meche, Sam Hays, Rafael Soriano, Rhett Johnson and every other hyped pitching prospect to ever flash great tools and put up numbers was penciled in for that mega rotation of the future.
I find it amazing that we always seem to have all these great sure fire pitching prospects and yet outside of Felix and now Pineda we have nothing to really show for it. The funny part is that a guy like Doug Fister was dismissed and yet he produced fairly well..
In the meantime, the Angels, Athletics and Rangers have all seemingly been able to produce useful pitchers and gotten more out of them at the MLB level without as much of the hype.
Are those other teams getting more out of less because they are coaching them better or is it a case of those teams teaching them what they need to do to to get out MLB instead of MiLB players?
Sure injuries play into it but they do for every team and there is a reason why many people believe there is no such thing as a pitching prospect.
It’s great we have all this pitching talent, it’s great because we need it, we need as many prospects as possible in order to survive the attrition rates.
Maybe more importantly, its stupid for us to WAIT on these guys and their potential greatness and ignore the fact that those other teams are likely grooming their own prospects and if history is any indication, they will do a better job of giving them a supporting cast and coaching them in order to succeed.
I agree we need to go with these kids and to invest in the future through the farm but I think its complete folly to pretend that we exist in a vacuum. The are two teams in the division that have been able to produce talent and are now willing to spend to aument what they do not have. We have three teams in the division with what appears to be very good front offices and developmental staffs. If the A’s have taught us anything its that as smart as they are they cannot completely overcome their financial restrictions, at least not for very long.
At the end of the day this team needs to commit to more than just the farm system. This is likely a bad year to do it, and next offseason’s FA crop is even uglier but maybe its time to use some these potential “stars” for someone else’s future FA in order to bring that MLB ready talent to Seattle now.
I think Jack Z is a smart guy. I just think that Billy Beane, Jon Daneils and Jerry Dipoto are also all very smart. And as much as people want to lie to themselves and say that the Rangers and especially the Angels are picking up salaries that will cripple them the reality is those teams DO have the money and future wiggle room to make mistakes.
Everyon can talk about us being the Rays west, you’ll have to forgive me for not wanting to have to wait for ten last place finishes in order to finally reach that lofty goal.
At some point, when it makes sense and its the right player, this team needs to ante up. Does anyone really believe they will?
Plim-
You’re comparing apples to oranges (Z’s farm system to Bavasi’s), and actually refuting your own point with your examples…
The Angels and Rangers have good, reliable farm systems, and good management… That’s why their pitching is actually being useful.
Up until Z took over, the M’s farm system was awful. And depleted of useful pieces. The fact that you bought into the hype of some of those pitchers, doesn’t mean they were actually supposed to be good. Whereas Hultzen, Paxton and Walker ARE ACTUALLY believed by most scouts in all of MLB to be above average pitching prospects. They’re all on most “Top prospects” lists…
As far as Ryan Anderson (20-27, 4.04 in minors), Gil Meche (33-43, 4.10 era in minors), and Sam Hays (3-5, 5.68 era), I don’t remember any of those guys ever putting up elite numbers in the minors that would have led me to believe they could be part of the potentially best rotation in baseball (Anderson never put up ANY numbers really). Rafael Soriano has been a serviceable pitcher, and Rhett Johnson doesn’t merit mention– so I left them out.
The bottom line is that most people in baseball believe it takes up to 5 years to replenish an empty farm system, and start seeing those developed players begin to reach the bigs and contribute. Impatience, strong as it may be in the M’s case, does not warrant giving up on that plan of attack for some other method– when other methods have proven to be less successful over the long term (the 90’s Indians, early 00’s Rangers, mid-00’s Mariners all say “hi”).
You CAN NOT win consistently without an effective farm system. You just can’t do it. Even the Yankees and Red Sox, with upwards of $200 million payrolls, depend on farm system products to win. You can buy some wins short term by overspending, but (unless you’re the Yankees/Red Sox) without quality players for low $$$’s filling out the rest of the roster, you’re wasting money, and not getting over the hump.
If you believe Z is a smart guy, let his players in his farm system start to contribute, and believe what he says that “when the time is right” he’ll pony up and add the pieces that are going to push us to the top. FIRST we have to get to the middle of the pack, before we can try to leap frog to the top with a few key pickups.
It will bring us back to contention. Believe it. Producing our own quality players is NEVER going to hinder our ability to win. And this management has a history of finding and developing talented players (see: the ever awful Milwaukee Brewers as now being contenders). Z is NOT going to attempt a different method, so if fan’s/management can’t be patient and see this through, then the fact is we’ll be firing and hiring new management in the next year or two– and starting all over again, with someone new, and ANOTHER 3-5 year plan. And that would be the OPPOSITE of expediting the process, which seems to be what you’re hoping for.
EVERYBODY wishes it was easy, and all it took was ambition and desire. But if that’s all it took to be winners- EVERY TEAM in MLB could contend whenever they wanted to, every year.
I just got a cheese log for Xmas!
I just created a new buzzword!
Masturbakertion:
1) obsessive focus upon the franchise value of the Seattle Mariners and missapplied economic/financial principles as justification for any argument that overvalues chemistry, powerbats, “proven” over true talent, and dramatic forays into the free agent market based upon estimated franchise value often framed in an ad hominem attack on sabermetrics and the blogosphere in transparent attempts to bait in an effort to drive traffic to a site and for other selfserving reasons especially if it evokes the notion of journalistic integrity or implies the lack thereof in writers who do not possess a degree in journalism.