M’s Expected To Sign Hong-Chih Kuo
According to Jayson Stark, other teams that have expressed interest in signing LH reliever Hong-Chih Kuo have been notified that he’s joining the Mariners instead. The M’s are usually pretty slow to announce stuff like this – Jack Z talked about Kevin Millwood as part of the rotation plans on the Montero-Pineda conference call, even though that signing wasn’t announced until the next day – but I’d expect this to become official at some point in the next few days. It will almost certainly be a minor league contract with an invite to spring training and a bunch of incentives tied to innings pitched if he makes the big league roster.
In terms of what he could provide, no one’s a bigger question mark in the sport. In 2010, he was probably the best reliever in baseball – last year, he was one of the worst. He has a long history of arm problems, including having Tommy John surgery twice, and again lost his ability to throw strikes during the first half of last season – he had initially missed three months in the 2009 season with the same inability to throw the ball over the plate. On May 11th of last year, he was placed on the DL with “anxiety disorder”, and during one rehab stint in Arizona, he “once misfired a pitch during a bullpen session and hit a trainer in the neck. The trainer was walking across an adjacent practice field.”
He showed signs of overcoming the issues during the second half of last season, however, and during the final two months of the season, he only walked seven batters in 14 innings – a big improvement over the 16 walks in 13 innings in the first four months of the year. That would be encouraging, except there’s also the small matter of his velocity disappearing down the stretch. In 2010, Kuo regularly sat at 95 and reached the upper-90s with his fastball, but he ended the year topping out at 93. If he figured out how to throw strikes by simply throwing the ball softer, that might not be as positive as if he regained his prior form.
So, you name the red flag and it’s probably raised with Kuo. He’s forgotten how to throw strikes twice. He’s had five surgeries, including major arm problems twice. His velocity was down at the end of the year. Of course, there’s also the upside – he’s come back from the yips before, he finished the year without any reported arm problems, and there’s that 2010 season that is pretty tantalizing sitting on his resume.
If Kuo comes to camp throwing 95 and putting the ball over the plate, he’ll make this team, and could potentially be the best reliever in the bullpen. If he’s throwing 92 or hitting trainers on other fields, then the M’s will likely have just agreed to pick up the tab for further rehab of a pitcher who isn’t quite right. It could easily go either way, or be a mixture of both. Kuo might be worthless, or he might be amazing. Good luck trying to figure out which result the team should expect.
But, this is why NRIs were invented. The M’s basically just bought a lottery ticket, and if it pays off, they’ll come out with a greatly improved bullpen. If it doesn’t, well, it didn’t really cost them much to begin with.
Update: Dylan Hernandez reports that the deal is done, but is actually a one year Major League contract. So, Kuo will go right on the 40 man roster, and unless he implodes in spring training, he’s going to make the club.
On Clubhouse Confidential
I’m back on CC today, and Jack Z will also be a guest on the show. It airs on MLB Network at 2:30 and then replays throughout the night.
M’s Sign Carlos Guillen
Hey, look, the Mariners weren’t done after all! Okay, so, this doesn’t really count, and this deal has been in the works and kicking around the rumor mill for a while. Today, the M’s announced that they’ve signed Carlos Guillen to a minor league contract with an invite to spring training.
From 2004 (the year the Mariners traded him for Ramon Santiago…) to 2008, Guillen was one of the better players in baseball. He hit .308/.377/.493, good for a 127 wRC+, while spending most of his time at shortstop, though he also played some third, some first, and even a few games in left field. He made a lot of contact, hit for power, drew some walks, ran the bases, and was a pretty terrific all-around infielder. He was never a great glove guy, but he wouldn’t kill you defensively either, and all told, he was worth +19.4 WAR over those five seasons, an average of nearly +4 wins per season.
Then his body broke down. In 2009, he missed two months with shoulder problems and was limited to just 322 plate appearances, where his offense was okay but significantly down from prior seasons. He played mostly left field and DH, and he was a liability in the field that his bat didn’t really make up for.
In 2010, the Tigers tried him at second base, but he missed a month with a hamstring issue, a few weeks with a strained calf, and then finished the year on the DL after having microfracture surgery on his knee. He only got 275 plate appearances that year and was basically the same guy as the year before.
He started last year on the DL while still recovering from surgery and didn’t play in the big leagues until July. He managed to last for about a month before a sore wrist landed him on the DL, and then he ended the season unable to play due to another calf strain. During the month that he did play, he was lousy.
Over the last three years, Guillen has accumulated about 700 PA and been worth +0.2 WAR, landing on the DL four different times for four different injuries. He turned 36 in September. You can probably figure out about what you should expect him to be able to give the 2012 Mariners.
So, why’s he coming to camp? As we’ve talked about, the team needs some third base depth, and Guillen is essentially going to give them an alternative option for the roster spot currently held by Chone Figgins. It’s pretty likely that the M’s would move Figgins if anyone wanted to pick up even a moderate amount of his remaining contract, and having Guillen around means that they would have someone to platoon with Seager at third base if they dumped Figgins before the season starts.
Guillen’s an insurance policy – a guy who could fill a part-time bench role if someone gets hurt in spring training or they make a trade. As it stands now, he wouldn’t make the club, but there’s time for that to change. Bringing Guillen to camp gives the team the ability to make a move with Figgins if they want to without having to scramble to fill his roster spot by making a trade or pushing a kid up from Tacoma prematurely. Unlike with Millwood, who is probably going to make the team, Guillen probably can’t win a job in spring training. He’s going to need someone else to get out of the way if he’s going to make this club. That guy is almost certainly Figgins, but given that the team is only carrying four outfielders (including Mike Carp) right now, Figgins versatility is almost certainly more helpful to the team than Guillen’s potential for a little more offense from the platoon third baseman.