Game 8, Mariners at Rangers
Vargas vs Holland, 11:05 am.
So, today’s line-up is a little weird. It’s a day-game-after-night situation, so it’s not unusual to see some of the reserves play, but Wedge is also taking advantage of the fact that the team is facing a left-handed starter to get a couple of little used right-handed bats in the line-up today. So, if you’ve been wanting to see more of Casper Wells (as I have) and Alex Liddi (okay, not so much), then today is your day.
To make room for those two in the line-up, Saunders and Ackley take a seat, with Figgins moving to center and Seager shifting to second. Also, Olivo’s back in there at catcher, but against an LHP, they don’t really have a better option. Even after Jaso’s two hits last night, there’s no real value in having him in the line-up today – Holland would tear him up.
Figgins, CF
Liddi, 3B
Ichiro, RF
Smoak, 1B
Montero, DH
Seager, 2B
Olivo, C
Wells, LF
Ryan, SS
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91 Responses to “Game 8, Mariners at Rangers”
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The Mariners announcer love fest for Michael Young gets really old.
Whoa there, pardner. Who said anything about “writing off” Jaso? I’m saying that as long as the Mariners have him anyway, I don’t see any particular reason not to put him in the lineup. Also, you’re just not correct with not being above replacement level with the bat; per fangraphs (and the comment upthread), he was worth about a win above replacement. Whether he was basically replacement level overall depends on how much you value catcher defense (which, in fairness, may be more than we’ve previously believed).
Re: Jaso being a possible longer-term solution as a backup C to Montero if Montero sticks, sure, but starting him more this year won’t really help that along any. My point here isn’t so much that the team is massively better off with Olivo behind the plate or anything, it’s that it’s something of a push and really not a big thing we should be getting ourselves worked up over. Starting the #2 catcher at DH and batting him 9th, on the other hand…
“Not a big thing we should be getting ourselves worked up over.”
Respectfully disagree, Johnny. Watching Olivo bat is pretty much the biggest thing to complain about with this lineup, other than watching him catch (I still ignore Figgins in all conversations).
Olivo is pretty good at throwing out baserunners, sure. But catching and hitting are two pretty influential parts of the game.
Watching someone else take his at bats, and block breaking balls in the dirt, is a pleasure simply in the “subtraction” aspect of it.
My thoughts, anyways.
Holland looking a bit less Cy Young-like this inning.
Poor pengüins, Texas is awful even for us, humans…
I think this is why Billy Beane works out during Athletics games. I agree that he’s frustrating to watch, and it’s additionally MASSIVELY frustrating to watch the seeming inability of the team to find a guy to play catcher who can actually, you know, catch the baseball (who was the last guy the M’s had who fit that? Dan Wilson? Kenji I guess was okay at blocking balls but ISTR him having the knock of not handling the pitching staff well, which is its own source of frustration). However, on that higher, “where will the team be in 2 years” level, which really is the level we need to be thinking about with this team, watching him flail at pitches a foot out of the strike zone and do his best Rob Johnson impression behind the plate doesn’t really do anything for this team one way or the other at this point.
Sure, though, from an aesthetic level I’d kind of like to see the team just cut Olivo outright and try Moore one last time and/or Quiroz. Maybe that will still happen (okay, I doubt it).
wow, terry of t, my family were dodgers fans ‘before’ but i did get to see Seaver pitch like 100 times
Lots of question marks on this team for next season. Will they resign Suzuki? Is Smoak the answer at first? Can Guti come back? What about left and third? Will our young pitchers be ready? Olivo is hard to watch but he’s what they are going with for the time being and his only one spot in our every day lineup. I chose not to complain about him. Would I like to see someone else? Sure.
I got to say that the camera shots of the Texas fans the last few days after not made me yearn for a move to Texas. Those two guys today in the wrestling (?) masks are just creepy.
SEAGER!!
Seeger!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Seager is for real!!!!
So… I think I need to buy a Seager jersey.
That’s been a long drought.
I’m loving Seager. Can we keep him? Lol and Olivo strikes out. Perfect
Kind of a high strike call there!
Johnny, I guess I’m not following your reasoning. What is your argument for why the Mariners should play Olivo when they have better, younger alternatives? You’ve written a lot of words but I can’t figure out what your reason is, beyond a kind of “**** it, why not?” If Olivo were only starting against lefties, fine, but what on earth would be the rational reason to start him over Jaso against an RHP, unless Jaso needs a day off and Montero isn’t catching?
Uh, Rizz – the pitch tracker indicates that was a marginal strike, not “way up and in”.
Johnny-
I think the biggest tell-tale moment of our recent catchers’ inefficiencies was when the announcers yesterday went out of their way to praise Montero for blocking a breaking ball in the dirt– like they’d never seen that before. When, really, that’s what ANY catcher at the pro level should be able to do with his eyes closed.
Like I argued for after the Pineda trade, I don’t see why Montero can’t get the majority of the catching appearances, when he gets traded to maybe the only team in baseball where it’s NOT really a downgrade to stick him back there frequently.
Using, basically, your same rationale for why it’s okay for Olivo to play the majority of time.
(Olivo watches strike 3 as I type… Maybe a ball, but still, excellent timing…)
(Olivo example B– he’s on cue– dropping Little League bunt pop-ups)
Nice that we’re talking about Olive Oyl as he strikes out, then drops a bunt pop-up.
#freejaso
Erasmo! The Eraser… (maybe next time…)
we just can’t erase Kinsler!
Not exactly a great job by Erasmo
Ugh, not sure Erasmo Ramirez was the right bullpen choice, here. Trailing by 1 run in the seventh with 2 outs and a man on third, shouldn’t you use one of your best relievers?
I don’t disagree with the general idea of putting Montero at catcher every day. I mean, I can see the argument against it – if you force him to concentrate on too many things at once it might make his development as a hitter stall, and the one thing the M’s desperately need out of him is his bat – but overall, yeah, I agree that if I were the manager of this team I’d be putting him out there as a catcher day after day to see if he can turn into an adequate backstop.
The issue here though is that for whatever reason the deal there isn’t to play Montero and have Jaso back up or not, it’s whether to have Olivo play the majority of games at the position or whether to have Jaso do the same. Right now, I’m cool with Olivo doing so. If he suddenly turns into a pumpkin (I mean, more than he already has) they can cut him and then use Jaso, whereas if they cut Olivo now and Jaso suddenly can’t hit, they can’t bring him back… and, okay, replace him with a guy like Quiroz or Adam Moore who would cost the team at most one win. It’s definitely not a big deal the other way either.
Otherwise, I’m not sure what’s scarier… that this team has a combined OBP of .293 going into this game, or that a .293 OBP is apparently good for 8th best in the AL.
Man, however unreasonable Wedge’s (non-)use of Wells has been… he’s not helping his own case.
it’s whether to have Olivo play the majority of games at the position or whether to have Jaso do the same
Agreed. I’m happy to table the Montero @C question. I’m OK with the statement that the M’s have decided to start Montero at C for X games this year, and I’m not going to question X. We’re talking about the other 162-X games.
Right now, I’m cool with Olivo doing so. If he suddenly turns into a pumpkin (I mean, more than he already has) they can cut him and then use Jaso, whereas if they cut Olivo now and Jaso suddenly can’t hit, they can’t bring him back
You still haven’t given any reasons for playing the worse player–worse on offense and defense, terrible on fundamentals which we’re supposed to be inculcating on a young team–against right handed pitchers. I don’t care if the Mariners cut Olivo or just start him once a week, but having him as the regular starter against RHP when an obviously better and younger player the organization went out and got this off-season rots away on the bench is indefensible. You’ve repeated a number of times that you’re “OK” with this decision, but you still haven’t given any actual reasons for that (“it’s not a big deal either way” isn’t a reason). You seem to have stopped denying that he’s worse than Jaso (against RHP) and he’s less likely to have a future with the team than Jaso. So why play him when the platoon advantage isn’t there? I’m honestly confused as to your reasoning.
Jaso wOBA last year was .288, his WAR was 0.3. Olivo’s was .273 and 0.1. Yes, Jaso’s better but not by enough to worry about.
Perhaps after Olivo’s play today, and the glowing praise of Olivo’s leadership by Wedge (see Shannon’s blog…), the followup blog post here can be “It’s Still Time For Miguel Olivo To Be Accountable”.
Early signs are that the veteran fascination is nowhere near the inmates-running-the-asylum of say a few years ago, but still there are some places where it seems this organization is still way too in love with veterany goodness, grit and intangibles, at the expense of putting more talented players out on the field every day.
terryoftacoma – Apples and oranges, man, that wOBA was over 89 games. Olivo played 130.
RHP on the mound, runner at second, potentially last out of the game, tying run on deck… and Wedge stays with Olivo instead of the higher OBP, lefty batting Jaso. Hell’s bells…. Wedge is really lucky that that worked.
Well, that worked.
“In your face!” – Miggy
lol
hooray Olivo! I take it all back. (most of it)
Welp. Oh well. Nice to see the M’s actually *in* these games, for the most part, this series.
Urg. At this point I want Olivo to not hit, so we have a better chance of him not playing.
Jaso wOBA last year was .288, his WAR was 0.3. Olivo’s was .273 and 0.1. Yes, Jaso’s better but not by enough to worry about.
But looking at one year WAR without looking at the underlying skill set is deeply misleading. Projection systems, which take into account longer trajectories, BABIP luck, age, etc, show a much bigger likely future gap between them. Looking only at the projection systems used by fangraphs, Jaso ranges from 312 to 330: Olivo from 276 to 301. That’s a big difference, even without taking into account the defensive difference. And, of course, it gets even wider when we limit it to RHP. Over the course of his career, Olivo has a 50 point wOBA platoon split. Jaso also has a substantial platoon split in the other direction. You’re giving up a lot of offense and a fair amount of defense for no reason when you start Jaso over Olivo against an RHP. Horrific defense aside, it’s probably worth starting Olivo against LHP since your stuck paying his salary anyway, but starting him against a righty is just nuts, especially when there’s a moderately attractive option available.
Zero walks. Zero!
The good news is there will probably be fewer games where the Mariners end up with zero walks than the number of times they will be shutout during the season.
Then again, that might not necessarily be good news at all.
I did not expect the Mariners to win more than 1 game in Texas, and “being in” every game is ceratinly better than not, but there are no moral victories in pro sports.
Yesterday’s late inning comeback was something to build from. That game should help the attitude muscle moving forward, but today’s lineup suggested some “thank you’s for being here prior to tomorrow’s release;” or it suggested a minor willingness to not be afraid to throw away a game. Beating the good teams early in the season is more likely than beating them later. They tend to keep rising to the top as the season wears on, while bad teams ….. well, we already know how the past 2 seasons turned out.
MsFan-
It’s still early, so I’m willing to err towards optimism…
Derek Holland only averaged 2 walks a game last season, in 32 starts, so getting zero against a team like Seattle isn’t a stretch.
Plus, I totally agree about beating good teams early, but I also take heart in the fact that two of the losses were by 3 runs total. And we’re talking about arguably the best team in the American League. Plus, including the 4 hit 1-0 loss, we had 33 hits in the series. 8+ hits a game,on average. So hey- progress. Crooked little baby steps.
. Horrific defense aside, it’s probably worth starting Olivo against LHP since your stuck paying his salary anyway, but starting him against a righty is just nuts, especially when there’s a moderately attractive option available.
An option that may, I would add, have some upside. If Jaso can get back to his 2010 performance at the plate (and there is no certainty, but has to be a possibility) then the M’s could be set at catcher next season.