Fun Fact of the Day
Opposing batters when John Jaso is catching for the Mariners: .191/.263/.326
Opposing batters when Jesus Montero is catching for the Mariners: .220/.293/.348
Opposing batters when Miguel Olivo is catching for the Mariners: .248/.307/.409
Percentage of total PAs caught by John Jaso when Felix Hernandez was pitching: 0.0%
Percentage of total PAs caught by Jesus Montero when Felix Hernandez was pitching: 10.3%
Percentage of total PAs caught by Miguel Olivo when Felix Hernandez was pitching: 21.4%
Remember all those comments you heard about how the pitching staff was going to really miss Miguel Olivo’s veteran leadership and game calling skills? Notice how you’re not hearing any of those comments right now?
In reality, none of those numbers prove anything. It’s all just small sample and biased selection data that has no real predictive value. There are way too many problems with looking at split-by-catcher data for it to have much value even over large samples, and over a a few weeks, these numbers are entirely worthless. Don’t use the numbers above to claim that Jaso or Montero are better game-callers than Olivo.
However, the reality continues to be that there is absolutely no evidence that the team’s pitching has suffered in any way from Olivo’s absence. Despite all the talk about his presence behind the plate and how guys like Montero and Jaso couldn’t be trusted to handle a staff, the pitchers have performed just as well without Olivo in the mix over the last 10 games. Even though the gap in handling a staff between Olivo and Montero/Jaso was supposedly so large that Montero couldn’t be trusted to catch more than once per week and Jaso could never be trusted to don the gear, removing Olivo from the catching position hasn’t had any adverse effects on the team’s run prevention.
Proving something doesn’t exist is extremely hard, and I’m not one who believes that there’s no variation between catchers in their ability to impact a pitcher’s performance. That said, if you want me to believe that you have an invisible dragon in your back yard, you better be prepared to at least show me footprints or something that he burned to a crisp for you. If there is no evidence of a thing’s existence, and then we take that thing away and see no change in its surroundings, the best conclusion we can draw is either that the thing does not exist or that its existence has a minimal effect at best.
I have no doubt that the Mariners really like Miguel Olivo as a teammate. However, respect for your teammates doesn’t win games, outscoring your opponents does.
And all this time I thought you were a proponent of Miguel Olivo…
So from those two sets of stats, you’ve clearly demonstrated that Felix Hernandez makes the catchers he throws to worse.
Just kidding! I love statistics! ^_^
I do think Olivo is a terrible plague but I guess I’m just young enough that I grew up caring about OBP a little too much, and I haven’t really given as much thought to the defensive side of things.
It feels like such a long time since the Mariners played a lineup that consisted only of best-available players at each position. “Best-available” is always going to be debated by any team’s fan base, of course, but season after season, it seems like there’s always at least one glaringly under-performing veteran getting starts because of “veteran leadership” and other supposed attributes that “don’t show up in the box scores.” And then the resulting box scores don’t work out in the M’s favor…
I want to say it’ll be interesting to see what happens when Olivo returns, but… I feel like “It’ll be totally unsurprising to see what happens when Olivo returns” is more accurate.
In last night’s game John Jaso did a fantastic job of framing some pitches from Vargas. Pitches that Olivo normally gives up on and drops his glove.
Additionally, it seems to me that there are a lot less passed balls, but that is totally a guess based on the games I’ve watched in the last two weeks.
The Olivo plan should involve him sitting on the bench, hoping that a LHP comes up for face Jason late in the game, or on a Sunday afternoon game, as a starter.
But sadly, I think he’s still on this team as Montero gets used as a DH.
Jaso’s BA-against is easily explainable.
Right now, he’s hitting .300/.341/.525. The opposing teams are just too incredulous. When one of their players comes to bat, he tries to pay attention to the pitcher, but he can’t help but talk to Jaso.
“Dude! They were keeping you on the bench full time just for late-inning PH duty? Seriously? SERIOUSLY? Are you kidding me? You really haven’t caught until a few games ago? No way, you’re b**sh****g me! No manager is that stupid, dude!”
Dave (or anyone), any opinion on how Montero has looked behind the plate? Should we be any more optimistic that he can catch a reasonable amount of games back there?
(continuing Westy’s parody):
Jaso: “I don’t want to talk about it…” (pulls a flask from his shin guard, quick swig)
STRIKE THREE!!! (Jaso wings the ball around the infield…)
Jaso (glaring at Wedge): “Next!”
LOVE it. Thanks for the laughs!!
There really is a place for scouting in modern baseball’s landscape…for example, using no statistical or otherwise objective and empirical analysis whatsoever, I was able to tell that Jaso is a better hitter and catcher than Olivo just by watching a few Rays games last year in which Jaso either started behind the plate and played well or came in to pinch-hit late and was a critical part of a winning rally. Magic!
“That said, if you want me to believe that you have an invisible dragon in your back yard, you better be prepared to at least show me footprints or something that he burned to a crisp for you.”
Take that Jeff Sullivan.
Jaso, just looks like a hitter at the plate. Montero, really doesn’t ‘appear’ to strike fear while standing in the box, but wow, he can really play.
Olivo, just another man in the box.
Jaso, really nice to see him not swing at bad pitches.
Montero, ditto, ok, maybe like all other players, they make mistakes and swing while being fooled.
Olivo, doesn’t have to be fooled to swing like he was fooled.
Olivio, probably back in the lineup, veteran.
But really folks, Jaso and Montero have been great. I really wish we could stick to those two and NEVER give Olivo another chance, NEVER, EVER.
I love the Montero/Jaso combo. Olivo OUT please.
Between his hitting and his remarkable ability to stifle opposing offenses, John Jaso should be on the All-Star team!
there is absolutely no evidence that the team’s pitching has suffered in any way from Olivo’s absence
Well, Millwood and Montero seemed to have some trouble getting on the same page a couple games ago. But really, a) Millwood’s veterany goodness should have helped smooth that out to begin with, and b) one pitcher in one game does not a good sample make.
respect for your teammates doesn’t win games, outscoring your opponents does.
Very well said. Someone needs to print that on one of the player’s sets of contact lenses, so that Wedge can read it the next time he looks in their eyes.
Olivo is bad at hitting a baseball. Olivo is bad at deciding which baseballs to try and hit. Olivo is bad at catching a baseball. Olivo is bad at blocking a baseball. I am willing to extrapolate this to believe that Olivo is bad at everything in baseball. And I’m happy to believe that.
Miguel the Invisible Dragon. I like it. Somehow it fits.
Okay, bear with me…
If we nickname Eric Wedge “Pete” (maybe a middle name, family nickname?) then we get the perfect fit of calling Olivo “Pete’s Dragon” (a classic imaginary friend from many of our childhoods, and Eric Wedge’s “imaginary good baseball player friend”)…
So from now on…
Eric Wedge = Pete Wedge
Miguel Olivo = Pete’s Dragon
Go M’s!
“Remember all those comments you heard about how the pitching staff was going to really miss Miguel Olivo’s veteran leadership and game calling skills?”
Hahahahahahahaha. Ahhh… That was good. I like that. People actually thinking Miguel Olivo somehow makes a positive impact on a team. Yeah.
With the youth of Montero and Jaso not even being a free agent until 2016, are we seeing the end of Adam Moore as a “potential” catcher for the Mariners????
Havent heard any updates on Moore or for that matter Gutierrez in quite awhile. Has either made any progress in the last couple weeks???/
“Percentage of total PAs caught by John Jaso when Felix Hernandez was pitching: 0.0%
Percentage of total PAs caught by Jesus Montero when Felix Hernandez was pitching: 10.3%
Percentage of total PAs caught by Miguel Olivo when Felix Hernandez was pitching: 21.4%”
Shouldn’t those percentages add up to 100%, or am I just missing something? I don’t know how to access this data to check it.
Nope. Those are the percent of total plate appearances. What that means is that Felix has thrown something like 31% of the M’s total PAs. (Really? Felix has thrown a third of the M’s pitches? That’s questionable, but I could be persuaded.)
from the ap story concerning Franklin:
Wedge also said center fielder Franklin Gutierrez is being sat down for a few days after plantar fasciitis in his foot flared up. Gutierrez is fully recovered from the pectoral injury that landed him on the disabled list to start the season. But the foot problems have slowed his recovery. He is in Seattle being examined by the Mariners’ training staff.
No, Felix has thrown probably something like 12-14% of the team’s pitches. You’d have to add up their pitches and divided.
There’s definitely division involved.
Although I’m skeptical about the part where Olivo actually caught those balls.
No, he’s saying that 0% of the batters faced while Jaso was catching were faced by Felix, 10.3% of Montero’s batters, and 21.4% of Olivo’s.
When you discount Montero’s and Olivo’s percentages based on their relative times behind the dish, you add up to the 16.8% of the batters the Mariners have seen so far that Felix has actually faced (204 out of 1215).
There’s no way of getting the percent of opponent PAs thrown by Felix from that data without looking up the percent of PAs caught by each catcher, which is probably easy enough to do if you really want to find out. The math shouldn’t be all that difficult for smart people like us.
What are the chances that each of Olivo, Montero, and Jaso revert back to their previous roles once Olivo is back and healthy? You would think that Jaso’s performance has to count for something, but I also don’t want that limiting Montero’s ABs, which is unlikely anyway.
Both Baker and Drayer have mentioned the value the team feels Olivo has as a mentor to Montero. Now it would be easy for us to make jokes about how poorly Olivo performs at some things and how that should make him ineligible to be a mentor. But I think for anyone who has ever had a job doing something in an organization that has employed people before they hired you, that should make a lot of sense. I don’t expect he will be DFA’d this year, though a trade could be a possibility.
When he does come back, I wouldn’t be surprised if Jaso moves to first and Smoak gets sent back to AAA. It’s obvious Wedge has some respect for Jaso as a hitter. Whether that is new or he had some other reason for benching him early on is hard to say. It would make sense to limit the catching duties to the mentor and the mentee with the competent but not mentoring catcher seeing the least time. By make sense, I’m talking about in the context of people who have jobs, not the context of increasing the chances of winning each game.
I would really like to see Jaso more. That guy has shown he can hit and catch.