Game 69, Mariners at Diamondbacks
Noesi vs Miley, 6:40 pm.
Ichiro’s been awful in June, so he gets tonight off. It will be interesting to see what the reaction is like if the Mariners put up a bunch of runs tonight, and they very well could – the temperature in Phoenix as I type this is 111 degrees, and the D’Backs park is one of the best places in baseball to hit. But, no one’s going to talk about park factors or the relationship between weather and offense tomorrow if the M’s hit with some effectiveness with Ichiro out of the line-up, especially if Casper Wells has another good night at the plate. Instead, all the talk will be about how the team doesn’t need Ichiro, and how a rebuilding team shouldn’t be bothering with a 38-year-old near the end of his career.
There is an argument to be made that Ichiro doesn’t need to play everyday on this team, but please don’t act like tonight is evidence of his offensive value one way or another. Ichiro’s not in the line-up, and the offense is probably going to do better tonight than they have lately, but the former is not going to be the cause of the latter. We’ll talk about Ichiro’s playing time in a post I’m working on for tomorrow, but all I’m asking is to not play cause-and-effect with Ichiro’s absence the team’s likely improved offensive performance tonight.
Oh, also, no DH, so Wedge had to pick one catcher from among the three. He chose Montero. Yay.
Saunders, LF
Gutierrez, CF
Seager, 3B
Montero, C
Wells, RF
Smoak, 1B
Ackley, 2B
Ryan, SS
Noesi, P
Minor League Wrap (6/11-17/12)
This is going to be the last regularly scheduled update for a while, which is to say that the others will be irregularly scheduled. I’m at a conference in western Massachusetts from this coming Sunday to the Sunday after that and seeing as how I usually write on Sundays, I have three fewer hours to work with (sort of), and will be busy throughout, there’s no telling when I’m going to have enough time set aside to draft this thing up. Also the one that would otherwise be scheduled for July 9th might be delayed too.
Since I only had three days to work with, Everett is getting their first write-up next week. I’m looking forward to attending the season opener on Wednesday! Also there’s going to be a Pulaski preview tomorrow if I get the roster in time. I hope to get the roster in time.
To the jump!
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Game 68, Giants at Mariners
Felix Hernandez vs. Madison Bumgarner, 1:10pm
Happy Fathers Day to all of my fellow dads out there. And hey, check it out: the M’s got us a Felix Hernandez start. I could nitpick and point out that this isn’t one of the old-school Felix starts, where everything was put together right out of the box, and you could just marvel at it from the first pitch. These days, Felix requires bizarre mechanical adjustments using tools I don’t have and instructions I don’t understand. But that’s the thing with Felix – even legitimate complaints start to sound entitled and churlish: it’s Fathers Day, and Felix is pitching. This is pretty damned awesome.
Madison Bumgarner’s a young lefty with a four-seam fastball in the 91-92 mph range, an occasional curve, a rare change-up and a blizzard of sliders. I can’t even pretend to know how many breaking balls are too many for young arms, but I’ll just point out that Bumgarner throws more sliders than just about any starter in baseball. He’s taken the Giants to a World Series and his career FIP’s just over 3, so it’s working for him. Maybe this is just the hapless M’s fan in me, but I see slider usage like that and I think of Clint Nageotte. Do you really need 35% sliders? Isn’t that overkill? The odd thing about his slider usage is that Bumgarner actually throws it *more* against right-handed batters. Pitch-type platoon splits be damned, he throws it nearly 40% of the time against righties, which seems like it’s a recipe for big platoon splits – and lo and behold, that’s what we see. If ever there was a day to get Casper Wells in the line-up, this is it.
Plenty of father’s day stories today, but my favorite’s this piece about Tom Wilhelmsen’s dad. We saw versions of this when Tom made the club out of spring training in 2011, but it’s a great story and it’s nice to revisit it now that Wilhelmsen’s is less a “nice story” than a “potential All-Star.” While I still think the “closer” role is overrated and leads to inefficient reliever usage patterns, the one upside is that it’s really focused a lot of attention on Wilhelmsen. As a set-up man, his emergence may not have gotten as much attention given Saunders’ year or Kyle Seager’s solid play. But now that he’s notched a few saves, a lot of people notice that he’s suddenly turned into a frighteningly good relief pitcher. That curve following that fastball is amongst the best two-pitch arsenals in the game.
Dad’s day line-up is suitably right-handed. That means no Saunders, which isn’t great, but the man deserves a day-off, and as I mentioned above, Wells really needs to be in the line-up. Ackley’s descent continues, as he’s now hitting 8th, above Brendan Ryan.
1: Ichiro (RF)
2: Gutierrez (CF)
3: Seager (3B)
4: Montero (DH)
5: Wells (LF)
6: Smoak (1B)
7: Olivo (C)
8: Ackley (2B)
9: Ryan (SS)
SP: King Felix
Game 67, Giants at Mariners
Kevin Millwood vs. Tim Lincecum, 7:10pm
So, I guess I don’t have to tell you much about tonight’s opposing starter. Obviously, it’s been a struggle for Lincecum this year, with his fastball velocity down about 2 MPH from last year and a strand rate that’s gone from around 78% for his career to 61% this year. You’d say this is the ideal time to face the two-time Cy Young Award winner, but it’s just as easy to turn that around and say that there’s probably no team in baseball Lincecum would rather face than this M’s squad.
Kevin Millwood’s groin injury wasn’t severe enough for a DL stint, so he gets the start for Seattle. We’ll see if the M’s get to use Oliver Perez, or if they still go with Furbush against lefties. Or Luetge. Seriously, how many lefty relievers do you need? This is some weird idee fixe on the part of the front office, and while it’s worked pretty well, I just… hopefully Perez pitches well enough that the M’s feel comfortable stretching out Furbush as a starter again.
In case you missed it, VIctor Sanchez made his US debut for the Everett Aquasox last night, going 6 IP and giving up just 1 R on 2H and 2 BB. Only K’d 4, but got plenty of ground balls. Sanchez is reputed to be rather polished despite his age. He was born in 1995. 1995.
The line-up:
1: Ichiro (RF)
2: Wells (LF)
3: Seager (3B)
4: Montero (C)
5: Saunders (CF)
6: Smoak (1B)
7: Ackley (2B)
8: Jaso (DH)
9: Ryan (SS)
SP: Millwood
Oliver Perez Called Up, Chih-Hsien Chiang DFA’d.
It seemed like such a good idea at the time. The Red Sox outfielder had a mediocre performance record until 2011, when he went nuts for a few months in the AA Eastern League. Even better, there seemed to be a good explanation – a dietary change helped him manage his diabetes, giving him more energy. Like so many baseball narratives based on correlation, this one doesn’t seem to have held up. The M’s designated the struggling Chiang for assignment today when they added Oliver Perez to the 40-man. Chiang was demoted from Tacoma to Jackson earlier in the year, and never got going in the M’s organization. He may pass through waivers, so he may have another chance, but things don’t look good at this point.
Oliver Perez signed a minor league deal with the M’s in the spring, after his legendarily terrible contract expired. The former Pirate once had an above-average fastball that he used to post great K rates as a starter, though to be fair, it had been years since he’d done so. More recently, a move to the bullpen with the Nats couldn’t stop his free fall, as his FB was frequently in the upper 80s, and coupled it with poor command (which was below average even when he was an all-star). This year, however, he’s shown signs of life – his fastball started getting better, hitting the mid 90s at times. He’s still walking way too many hitters, but his K rate is now nearly 30%. Against lefties, he’s been amazing, striking out 24 of the 60 he’s faced (40% Ks) and giving up only one HR. Unfortunately, another LOOGY or left-handed long reliever isn’t at all what the M’s need. Lucas Luetge and Charlie Furbush have been lights out all year, and Furbush has shown the ability to go multiple innings if needed.
Perez earned a shot, but this move has more to do with his contract than it does with the big club’s needs. Perez’s split contract meant he could opt for free agency if he hadn’t been called up to Seattle by June 15th. The M’s decided having a surplus lefty was better than losing a lefty who threw 95, and I guess that’s a fair point. To make room on the 25-man roster, Steve Delabar moved back to Tacoma after a few games with Seattle. Delabar can hopefully actually work on his breaking ball instead of bouncing back and forth, and the M’s now have the ability to make late inning games last longer than even Tony LaRussa dared dream. Oliver Perez! Another weird comeback story! LOOGYs everywhere!
Game 66, Giants at Mariners
Jason Vargas vs. Ryan Vogelsong, 7:10pm
Ryan Vogelsong’s comeback story got plenty of attention thanks to an All-Star appearance and because he was on the team featured in Showtime’s “The Franchise” documentary. The short version: after debuting with the Giants in 2000, he went to the Pirates where he sucked repeatedly and relentlessly in both the rotation and the bullpen. After getting cut in 2006, he spent three decent years in Japan, and was considering Taiwan and Korea before getting a minor league shot in the Angels organization in 2010. He was, again, pretty bad. He moved to the Phillies AAA team, and was slightly worse. Then, he caught on with the Giants’ AAA affiliate in 2011 and pitched brilliantly, came up to the majors and made an improbable run at a Cy Young award (ok, ok, he only finished 11th).
It’s the sort of thing that we’d all talk about for years if it wasn’t the undrafted Brandon Beachy’s first full year in the majors…the guy with a K/9 of over 10 in 25 starts. Closer to home, the M’s Tom Wilhelmsen made the team out of spring training months after being a bartender. Obviously scouring for retired prospects, the M’s then had Steve Delabar make his MLB debut in the same year he began as a substitute teacher. Jerome Williams re-emerged from wherever he went. 2011 was insane, and while Vogelsong’s story’s remarkable, we’d make a bigger deal out of it if we weren’t so overwhelmed with “comeback” and “underdog” stories. I scan minor league box scores a lot, and I keep waiting to run into Jesse Foppert’s name.
Vogelsong uses a low-90s four-seamer, a two-seamer and a cutter along with a curve and change. Nothing looks remarkable watching him, and nothing looks remarkable via pitch-fx. He gets a surprisingly high number of swinging strikes with his fastball, and gets called strikes with both his curve and four-seamer. You’d think this would mean he’s got great command, but his walk rates sure don’t corroborate that.
Speaking of unremarkable-looking things, the M’s send Jason Vargas, to the mound. He’s got a nice RA and a career-best K:BB ratio, but like many M’s hurlers, he’s having problems with home runs this year. He’s given up 8 in his last 6 starts (38 1/3 IP), which is positively Beavanish. He’s pitched around them, and he hasn’t had disaster starts, but he’s giving up plenty of runs, and, well, the M’s aren’t likely to win a slugfest. This would be a nice time for one of Vargas’ shutouts, and the Giants come in with a .291 wOBA against lefties. But Vargas’ has little (if any) platoon splits thanks to his change-heavy repertoire, so I’m not worried that the Giants (who have quite a few switch-hitters) may run out an almost-entirely righty line-up.
Franklin Gutierrez has reclaimed the 2nd spot in the line-up as a slumping Dustin Ackley hits 7th:
1: Ichiro (RF)
2: Gutierrez (CF)
3: Seager (3B)
4: Montero (DH)
5: Saunders (LF)
6: Smoak (1B)
7: Ackley (2B)
8: Olivo (C)
9: Ryan (SS)
SP: Vargas
Game 65, Padres at Mariners
Erasmo Ramirez vs. Edinson Volquez, 7:10pm
It wasn’t pretty in the early going, but Erasmo Ramirez got stretched out and settled into something like dominance in AAA, giving up 4 runs and 4 walks against 20 Ks in his final three starts (21 1/3 IP). More impressively, the right-hander maintained plus velocity deep into games, hitting 95 routinely in the 7th and even the 8th inning of his last start. Now he’s back with the M’s, taking Blake Beavan’s spot as the rotation’s control guy. Ramirez has pretty good stuff, but hasn’t been able to generate a lot of whiffs thus far in the bigs. The Padres weak line-up may help him with this problem, but it’ll also be interesting to see how well Ramirez keeps the ball down. He’d put up good GB% in the minors (and in his brief time in the M’s pen), but he was much closer to average in Tacoma.
Tonight also marks the 2012 debut of CF Franklin Gutierrez. The guy we once thought would be a cornerstone of the next M’s playoff contender now elicits grumbles as he moves Mike Saunders to LF. At this point it’s essentially impossible to imagine Gutierrez as a cornerstone of any team, contender or not. He’ll be 30 next year, and his body seems bound and determined to keep him off the baseball diamond (Doyle’s syndrome). A terrible hitter over the past two injury plagued seasons, Gutierrez needs to show something soon, which will be tough to do as the team manages his playing time and attempts to get Saunders and another lefty in the line-up against tough righties. This has been a real downer of a paragraph to write. Mike Saunders is better than we thought he’d be! Let’s end with that.
Opposing Erasmo is hard-throwing enigma Edinson Volquez. Sent to SD from Cincinnati, he’s used his park and an ability to miss bats to pitch around a 13% walk rate. Once you park adjust, his ERA really isn’t anything special (just as his Cincy ERAs weren’t as terrible as they seemed).
1: Ichiro (RF)
2: Ackley (2B)
3: Seager (3B)
4: Montero (C)
5: Smoak (1B)
6: Saunders (LF)
7: Jaso (DH)
9: Gutierrez (CF)
9: Kawasaki (SS)
SP: Ramirez
2012 Everett Aquasox Preview
Usually around this time of year, when I’m previewing the Aquasox, my refrain is that the draft just happened and consequently many important picks have yet to sign, therefore this roster may not be entirely representative of what the team may look like later in the season. Blah blah blah. Regardless of the signing deadline has been bumped up to July 13th, the Mariners have signed a lot of their early college-level picks anyway, which means that this roster looks pretty much like I’d expect it to down the line. It is what it is, and what it is is pretty darned good looking. It’s a young rotation, as the M’s have increasingly shied away from using recently-drafted college pitchers as starters their first year, but two of the five are quite talented and the rest are interesting if nothing else. The infield is loaded with high-round draft picks that should be capable offensively and the outfield has one talented though somewhat enigmatic hitter who could find his way into the heart of the order. I like this roster. The only weak point I see is possibly the bullpen. I’m eager to see what they can do.
For everyone’s info, there’s going to be a pre-game ceremony on the 23rd where they’re going to retire Greg Halman’s uniform number.
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Game 64, Padres at Mariners
Marquis vs Noesi, 7:10 pm.
What’s the cure for a struggling offense? Facing Jason Marquis. He’s been a disaster this year, with his ability to get ground balls his only redeeming quality at this point. His strikeout rate has fallen to a Beavan’s level, and he got hit around enough in Minnesota to earn his walking papers. The M’s should be able to put some runs on the board tonight. Well, theoretically anyway.
Gutierrez is not in the line-up tonight, but they did cut his rehab assignment short a bit, so it’s possible he was just scheduled for a day off today anyway. I’d imagine he’ll be in there tomorrow, and with the new and improved roster, it’s not a big deal that he’s not playing – Casper Wells deserves some at-bats too. This 25 man group is probably the best the Mariners have had at any point this season. We’re an Olivo-dumping away from having the near perfect roster that the organization could put together with what they have in house.
Ichiro, RF
Ackley, 2B
Seager, 3B
Montero, C
Smoak, 1B
Saunders, CF
Jaso, DH
Wells, LF
Kawasaki, SS
And Here Come the Changes
Not exactly sure why the M’s decided to make some of these obvious changes after tonight’s game instead of doing it this afternoon, but the roster shakeup that we talked about yesterday is here. According to Ryan Divish, the moves are as follows, though they won’t be announced until tomorrow.
Leaving:
Mike Carp (DL)
Stephen Pryor (DL)
Alex Liddi (Tacoma)
Blake Beavan (Tacoma)
Arriving:
Franklin Gutierrez (activated from DL)
Erasmo Ramirez (called up from Tacoma)
Obviously, with four guys going away and only two guys listed on the arrival side, there will be two other players joining the roster as well. Steve Delabar is the obvious fit to replace Pryor, since he was the one who lost his spot in the bullpen when they called Pryor up, and it’d be a minor shock if the guy coming up to replace Liddi wasn’t Casper Wells, for all the reasons we talked about yesterday. An OF rotation of Saunders/Gutierrez/Wells/Ichiro gives the team two left-handed and two right-handed outfielders, each of whom have the ability to play any of the OF positions if need be. Guti probably needs to be a part time player until he shows that he’s healthy and has his strength back, so Saunders will likely split time between center and left, with Wells picking up at-bats when Guti sits. It’s the best OF alignment the organization can run out there.
Figgins will move into the backup 3B/pinch runner role, so you’re likely going to see even less of him than you have lately, since he won’t be needed in the outfield anymore. He’ll probably play about as often as Iwakuma pitched in April. Yes, he’s still here, but more in theory than in practice.
On the pitching side, it’s pretty much straight forward – Ramirez replaces Beavan in the rotation, while Delabar replaces Pryor in the bullpen. If Delabar can stop giving up home runs, the ‘pen won’t take a hit, and Ramirez should improve the rotation simply by not being Blake Beavan. All around, these moves are pretty much a win across the board, and the team will be better tomorrow than they were today.
The next test will come in a month or so when Mike Carp’s 20 day “rehab assignment” comes to an end. Odds are his shoulder is no big deal, and the team is just using this to get around the fact that he’s out of options in order to give him a few weeks of regular playing time to see if he can get his bat straightened out. If he goes down to Tacoma and mashes, then they’ll have to figure out where he fits in the second half of the year. For now, though, this buys them some time to see whether Gutierrez can stay healthy and in the line-up, and if so, they can adjust Carp’s role accordingly.