Time to Send Justin Smoak Down
Mike Carp‘s rehab assignment ends today, as there’s a 20 day limit and Carp is out of options. The team must activate him from the DL or designate him for assignment, and they almost certainly don’t want to do that. So, expect Carp to join the Mariners at Safeco today, which means someone from the roster has to go to Tacoma. Carlos Peguero belongs there, but don’t be surprised if it’s Justin Smoak making the trip south instead.
A month ago, I wrote that I was ready to give up on the idea of Justin Smoak as a core part of the team’s future, and start exploring alternatives at first base. Since I hit publish on that post, Smoak has hit .128/.200/.244 in 85 plate appearances, with his slugging percentage only getting over .200 because he faced a stretch of Triple-A pitchers in Kansas City last week. Smoak is completely and utterly lost at the plate right now, and his season line has sunk to .191/.255/.323, which grades out as the second worst offensive performance of any full time player in baseball this season. For comparison, Justin Smoak’s wRC+ (60) is essentially the same as Brendan Ryan‘s (59), and only one of those two provide any defensive value.
It’s time to send Justin Smoak to Tacoma. If he’s fixable, having him get embarrassed by big league pitchers on a nightly basis isn’t helping anything, and he’s a massive liability in the line-up right now. With Carp coming off the DL, the team has the opportunity to make the switch, and they should take advantage of it. Maybe a 6 week stint in Tacoma will help him get back on track. Maybe he’ll continue to be exposed as a guy without as much offensive talent as everyone thought he had. Regardless, the organization needs to use those six weeks to see whether or not he can respond to a change of venue and a chance to hit minor league pitching again.
This was Justin Smoak’s make or break year. He couldn’t have possibly performed any worse. At this point, the team should send him to Triple-A, give his job to Mike Carp (and, I’d still like to see Jesus Montero get some opportunities at first base, which is his future position anyway), and go from there. Smoak is broken. Keeping him on the roster isn’t helping anyone.
Minor League Wrap (7/16-22/12)
Late in the week, there was a video making its rounds on the internet of a classic meeting of stoppable force and immovable object. In this case, immovable object was D’Backs catcher Styrker Trahan, and stoppable force? That was Mariners second-round pick Joe DeCarlo. Go look at it. I don’t know what to say. Yikes, perhaps.
If you missed it earlier in the week, I also did a guest article on Lookout Landing of the 2012 Mariners Pre-Draft Prospects as the Moons of Jupiter, which might mark the first and only time I’ve made a prospect list and haven’t hated every second of it.
To the jump!
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Game 97, Mariners at Rays
Blake Beavan vs. Matt Moore, 10:40am
Today’s alliterative pitching match-up presents what may be the biggest gap in terms of pure stuff in all of major league baseball. “Stuff” isn’t as easy to pin down as velocity, so this is somewhat subjective, but Matt Moore came into the year ranked right with (and in some cases ahead of) prospects like Mike Trout and Bryce Harper. After waltzing through the minors, he came up and looked amazing in a few starts down the stretch, and the Rays then signed him to what looked like a team-friendly contract extension. This year, Moore was supposed to take his place along side the Weavers, Verlanders and King Felixes of the AL.
It hasn’t happened, and thus despite the mismatch in terms of velocity/movement, the M’s have a decent shot. Moore’s biggest problem this season has been control/command. He’s walked 55 in just under 105 innings, and he’s given up some HRs, as befits a guy with a sub-40% ground ball rate. This isn’t to say that he’s a disappointment – he’s still a left-hander throwing 95+, with ridiculous movement on his fastball, a good change-up and a big breaking curve ball. Still, the M’s can get some baserunners if they’re patient.
Today’s line-up’s a little strange, perhaps reflecting the 14-inning game and the fact that this is getaway day. Casper Wells leads off, and Montero moves up to the #3 spot. Miguel Olivo bats clean-up, Dustin Ackley gets a day off, and Chone Figgins is in the line-up again.
1: Wells
2: Ichiro
3: Montero (H)
4: Olivo (C)
5: Seager (2B)
6: Smoak
7: Saunders
8: Figgins (3B)
9: Ryan
SP: Beavan
The Rainiers play two today in Colorado Springs; send positive thoughts to Mike Curto who’s got to run quite a gauntlet before calling the Yankees series.
Game 96, Mariners at Rays
Jason Vargas vs. Alex Cobb, 4:10pm
After a tough loss last night, the M’s face the Rays and right-hander Alex Cobb this afternoon. Jason Vargas looks to avoid extending his lead in HRs allowed; he’s built quite a lead over Hector Noesi and five other pitchers tied 5 HRs back. He’s also trying to escape a 13th consecutive start with at least one HR allowed – he’s given up 20 in his current 12-start streak. Since his disaster start in Arizona, Vargas has been tough, though. He’s 2-0 with 22 strikeouts and 8 walks in 29 2/3 IP over 4 starts.
Alex Cobb’s a splitter-throwing GB machine who forced his way up to the big leagues last year (before uberprospect Matt Moore) with a brilliant run for AAA Durham. He mixes a four-seam and two-seam fastball at around 90-92, a rarely used slider, a curve ball and a splitter-change that he’ll use as much as 33-40% of his pitches. Gameday classes it as a change, but Brooksbaseball calls it a splitter, and this picture would seem to lend credence to that categorization. The pitch is a tick slower, but has very similar movement to Hisashi Iwakuma’s. In all, I think Cobb and Iwakuma are pretty good comps – similar velo (though Iwakuma may throw a bit harder), good ground ball rates, solid K numbers, so-so command. So how does Cobb get away with tiny HR rates while Iwakuma’s running 20%+ HR/FB rates? I don’t know, but if I was the M’s, I’d be trying to find out.
Today’s line-up:
1: Ackley
2: Ichiro
3: Wells (LF)
4: Jaso (C)
5: Seager
6: Saunders
7: Smoak
8: Peguero (DH)
9: Kawasaki (SS)
SP: Vargas
The Jackson Generals have a doubleheader today, with James Paxton pitching game 1 and Anthony Fernandez going in game 2. Game 1’s half over, but you can tune in to MiLB gameday audio here. Paxton’s given up 1 run through 4 IP with 3 Ks and no walks. He’d pointed to his knee problem as a contributor to his command problems early in the year, and he may have been right: he’s given up just 3 walks in his 18 1/3 IP since coming off the DL (against 19 Ks).
South African pitching prospect Dylan Unsworth pitched the Everett Aqua Sox to the first-half division title last night in the Northwest League. He had ridiculous K:BB ratios is the Arizona League, but that didn’t quite carry over when he moved up to Pulaski. Another blow for the reliability of complex-league stats? Maybe not – he’s not walked anyone in his last two starts, striking out 14 in 13 innings.
GO M’S!
Game 95, Mariners at Rays
Hisashi Iwakuma vs. James Shields, 4:10pm
Hisashi Iwakuma’s two recent starts haven’t been awful (especially not compared with Hector Noesi’s two recent AAA starts), but they’re somewhat concerning. The sterling K:BB ratio hasn’t translated to the rotation, and there’s still the manner of his ugly HR rate. His xFIP is better looking, though it’s still not exactly good. That said, given the problems Noesi’s had and the injury to Erasmo Ramirez, I’m glad Iwakuma’s getting the chance to show what he can do. He doesn’t have a whole lot of time to showcase that he’s worth a longer term deal in MLB, so let’s hope he starts making that case tonight.
Opposing him is James Shields, the change-up specialist who’s been an extremely valuable member of the Rays rotation for a while now. His brilliant 2011 campaign was blighted only by three encounters with the dregs of the AL West – two starts against Seattle in which he gave up 15 runs total, and one against the A’s in which he gave up 10 (in 4 IP!). He seems to be throwing a tick faster than he did last season, up closer to 93 than 92. He throws his change-up around a third of the time; he throws it roughly the same amount to lefties and righties. That’s actually a hallmark of his – he throws the same pitches in the same percentages to everyone. And hitters respond in kind: over his career, he’s now got a 3.91 FIP against lefties, and a 3.91 FIP against righties. Of course, if you use xFIP, then it’s 3.64 and…3.64.
These dead-even splits are anomalous, as we’d expect a pitcher to have a platoon advantage against same-handed hitters. That he doesn’t shows you how effective a good change-up can be in evening the playing field. It also shows you that, while it’s hard to complain about a guy worth nearly 5 fWAR last year, a slider/curveball would make a lot of sense. He’s toyed with a slider in the past, but it doesn’t seem to have stuck. He’s always had something of a HR problem, so hopefully the M’s can continue driving pitches the way they did in Kansas City. And while James Shields is hardly Jonathan Sanchez, the M’s managed to hit SIX HRs off of Shields last year. The 2011 M’s, in total, hit something like 9 HRs. I’m not a big fan of the style of analysis that says that the M’s “own” this guy or that “they’re in his head” but I would love some additional data to build questionable narratives on.
Speaking of Jonathan Sanchez, the countdown to the deadline began in earnest today when Sanchez was traded to Colorado for Jeremy Guthrie. Two of the worst (possibly THE two worst) starting pitchers in baseball in 2012 were traded for each other. I’m not sure I’ve seen something like this before. Both joined new teams this offseason, and both had been MLB regulars for many years. Sanchez always had a nice K rate going for him, and Guthrie was going to Colorado, but both were generally speaking seen as good candidates to put up league average numbers. Not great, and they’d get there in different ways, but average. In both cases, the players they were traded for simply went nuts and putting up video game numbers. Melky Cabrera is still hitting .357, and has already amassed 3.5 WAR (excluding defense). Jason Hammel went to Baltimore, and put up 2.8 WAR before going down with knee surgery (not arm related!). Meanwhile, Sanchez and Guthrie both have FIP’s over 6.
What a perfect move to get the uncomfortable reminder about how each team got “fleeced” in the results-based, hindsight-enabled view of each team’s fanbase. What a perfect chance at a salvaging something, however unlikely, from these disastrous trades. I really hope it works out. Having just seen Sanchez, and given the ZIP code Sanchez is moving to, I have a whole lot of doubts. But it’d be fun.
Any good parallels out there? By WAR, it’s not the trade of the two worst players – Pedro Feliz was traded a few years back, and had run up -2 WAR all by himself that year (the return in that deal, David Carpenter, was himself traded today in the 10-player swap between the Astros and Blue Jays). But that deal was rather typical of one team just jettisoning a bad veteran for a minor league lottery ticket. I’ve seen awful players traded for “cash considerations” or what have you.
The one precedent many M’s fans will think of is the Carlos Silva-for-Milton Bradley trade before the 2010 season. However, in that case, while Silva had stunk up the joint in Seattle, he’d only pitched in 30 innings in 2009. Meanwhile, while Bradley was hated in Chicago, he wasn’t an *awful* player in 2009 – a disappointment, sure. Overpaid? Yeah, perhaps. But he was a league-average hitter in 2009, so while both sides felt nothing but relief at the time of the trade (like the Guthrie/Sanchez swap), it’s not an apples to apples comparison.
So, my takeaways from this dumpster-diving trade:
1: Fans and teams still occasionally overrate the “safety” of veteran players. That is, they believe veteran performance is less variable than those crazy rookies; the orbit around true-talent is much tighter. As we learned from both Carlos Silva AND Milton Bradley, that’s not always true.
2: Teams don’t do this enough. It really helps that you had two guys in virtually identical situations for similar lengths of time, but I’m a bit surprised that teams don’t trade bigger-named flops for other bigger-named flops. I know, I know: it sucks to buy high and then look to sell low, but are we done with Figgins yet? Please?
Oh yeah: the line-up:
1: Ackley
2: Ichiro
3: Wells (CF)
4: Jaso (DH)
5: Montero (C)
6: Seager
7: Smoak
8: Peguero (LF)
9: Ryan
SP: Iwakuma
Rainiers Game Thread
I’ll admit it. This isn’t the most exciting of all AAA ball games. Hultzen pitched last night, and today it’s Hector Noesi (who was awful in his PCL debut). There are bright spots; Mike Carp’s still rehabbing, and Alex Liddi’s working on his contact skills and is one of the very few who didn’t play in last night’s 18-inning pitcher’s duel. No, Nick Franklin isn’t in the game. Wait, come back!
A AAA ballgame beats whatever else you were going to listen to/watch. So fire up MiLB gameday audio or MiLB.tv and check it out. The great Mike Curto’s on the call, getting the pipes ready for his 2012 M’s debut in a few days. It’s a gorgeous night, and we’ve got that Felix afterglow feeling.
1: Darren Ford (CF)
2: Luis Rodriguez (2B)
3: Mike Carp (1B)
4: Luis Jimenez (DH)
5: Alex Liddi (LF)
6: Trayvon Robinson (RF?)
7: Vinnie Catricala (3B)
8: Carlos Triunfel (SS)
9: Guillermo Quiroz (C)
SP: Hector Noesi
Gametime 7:05
Game 94, Mariners at Royals
Felix Hernandez vs. Will Smith, 11:10am
Happy Felix Day! The temperature’s supposed to hit 108 today in Kansas City, so I’m hoping our illustrious king’s well hydrated. The M’s are looking for a 3-1 series win, which isn’t exactly a playoff berth, but it’s the kind of meager little prize that’s within the 2012 team’s grasp. So grasp it, guys.
Opposing the M’s is another of Kansas City’s young hurlers, lefty Will Smith. Pitching, and left-handed pitching in particular, was a strength of their system in recent years. Danny Duffy, John Lamb, Mike Montgomery, Chris Dwyer – they had projectable lefty starters coming out of their ears. So why have the M’s faced Ryan Verdugo and Will Smith? Because the Royals have struggled to develop these talented pitchers, and they’ve struggled to keep them healthy. M’s fans have been through this, but the Royals have lost Lamb and Duffy to Tommy John surgery, while Dwyer and Montgomery have faltered badly in the high minors. Thus, it’s been up to guys who they’ve acquired in trade – like Verdugo (Giants) and Smith (Angels) to fill in, at least temporarily.
Smith has a 91-92 mph fastball and a slider-curve-slurve breaking ball group around 78-80mph. It’s not a bad pitch, especially against lefties, but he’s not a strike-out pitcher – he’s more of a Bruce Chen type: a guy who’ll get a few K’s, but is otherwise content to pitch to fly-ball contact. Like Chen, Smith doesn’t walk too many, though his very small-sample MLB stats show he may not be able to maintain his solid MiLB walk rates. In any event, this would be the time to load up on right-handed hitters, which…Jaso, huh? This’d be a perfect day for an Ichiro day-off, though I understand the Gutierrez injury makes that tough. In the minors from 2011-12, Smith had a K/9 of 8.55 against lefties with a BB/9 of only 1.67. Against righties? 5.47 and 2.79.
In another sign that the M’s battering Royals pitching has officially driven the Royals crazy, the team signed retired catcher Jason Kendall to a minor league contract, and he’ll report to AA and play tomorrow. The Rainiers drove Ryan Divish crazy last night by playing an 18 inning game, that ended on a walk-off HR from Scott Savastano. The winning pitcher? Scott Savastano. Divish’s laments at his luck in covering the game eventually became more intriguing than the game itself, at least until he reached his daily tweet limit (I had no idea such things existed). Obscured by the bad at-bats and decent relief work by both teams was the very good start by Danny Hultzen. He went 6 innings, giving up 1 run on a HR, and walked 2. He threw a wild pitch with a runner on 3rd, but catcher Brandon Bantz threw out the runner at the plate – apparently Danny Hultzen blocked the plate expertly, which, you know, good for you, but please don’t do that again. Dan Straily’s dominant start was spoiled when he was left in one batter too long – Darren Ford doubled to lead off the 9th and later scored on a sac-fly to send the game into extras.
Victor Sanchez and reliever Grady Wood, both of whom had been excellent up until yesterday, got blasted in last night’s loss to Salem-Keizer. Disappointing. Wander Marte lost for Pulaski, but I’m pleased to announced the Clinton Lumberkings defeated Stalin (Gerson) last night 4-1. All eyes are on the Arizona League today as Cubs prospect Jorge Soler (a Cuban defector who drew a big, but not quite Cespedes-sized bonus) makes his US debut against the AZL Mariners. Hector Noesi starts for Tacoma as the Rainiers try to keep within 9 innings. They’ve gone 13 and 18 in back-to-back nights. Forrest Snow starts for Jackson today.
1: Ackley
2: Ichiro
3: Wells
4: Montero (DH)
5: Seager
6: Smoak
7: Jaso (C)
8: Saunders
9: Ryan
SP: King Felix
Game 93, Mariners at Royals
Kevin Millwood vs. Bruce Chen, 5:10pm
Ooookay. Reading blogger complaints about having nothing to write about is one of the few things that rate lower by most people’s internal interest scales than reading about mid-season regular season baseball games between the M’s and Royals, but indulge me here. The M’s and Royals are both officially out of the playoff race, and yet neither are as all-out terrible as Colorado or Houston – thus, they’re merely on the periphery of the race for the #1 pick. Both teams are in the midst of rebuilding projects, and both have graduated some lauded prospects to the big club, and both have still more prospects in the minors that give fans a modicum of hope. They’re bad at present, but hope to be contending in 2014-15.
This game’s starters are both 35+ journeymen who signed short free agent deals for relatively small amounts of money (not small to you or me, of course). Chen signed a 2 year, $9m deal and Millwood’s 1 year deal cost only $1m. It’s not like the rebuilding process stops just because these two are the starting pitchers. Dustin Ackley still gets to hit, and Jesus Montero still gets to catc, ok, no, he doesn’t, but he still gets to hit too. But if this feels a “filler” game, that’s because it is.
Now, if I’m a Kansas City fan, I might object and say that after two days of the under-30 new kids, I’m ready for some basic competence, even if that competence comes from a 35 year old Panamanian junkballer. That’s fine; we’ve had similar games when watching Kevin Millwood seemed preferable (emotionally at least) to watching another Noesi implosion. Chen and Millwood may help the younger members of the rotation by giving them pointers, or just being available to answer questions, and while I appreciate that, that’s not the role they’re going to be performing tonight. Bench coach Robby Thompson and hitting coach Chris Chambliss fulfill similar roles, in theory, for the hitters, but they’re not actually going to play.
The M’s have a chance to sweep the Royals, and the M’s are sending out a perfectly good pitcher against a hittable opponent in a good offensive environment (100+ degrees!). I shouldn’t get so hung up on this, especially since it’s not as if the team could force Erasmo back out there or decide that now, today, after his injury scare last night, is the time to move Charlie Furbush back to the rotation. There aren’t many options, and it’s *good* to have vets to fill in. But tonight in Tacoma, Danny Hultzen faces off against this year’s best out-of-nowhere prospect, Dan Straily of Sacramento/Oakland. I’d be lying if I said I’m glad ROOT’s televising the game in KC.
(Seriously: go to Tacoma tonight.)
The big story in baseball today was the first ever “Competitive Balance Lottery” in which the teams with the lowest revenue are eligible for/receive an extra draft pick. These are special draft picks, in that they can be traded (unlike the other draft picks which affect competitive balance but which are totally NOT “Competitive Balance Lottery” picks). Today’s opponent got the very first pick, the first six of which will be at the end of the first round, where the compensation picks used to go (the last six come following the second round). Pittsburgh got pick #2, followed by the Arizona Diamondbacks at #3. The Diamondbacks, who won the NL West going away, and who play in a large media market (bigger than St. Louis, Miami, Twin Cities, and our own Seattle/Tacoma). Seattle’s made a bit too much money to be considered for Competitive Balance, so struggling teams like the Reds, Tigers and Brewers will get the picks instead. St. Louis was eligible, but didn’t receive a pick. Like many wags out there, I think the idea is somewhat laudable but the execution’s somewhat insane. As with revenue sharing, they’ve never really figured out how to avoid rewarding teams for sitting back and collecting luxury tax revenue instead of actually attempting to compete. I like the fact that this attempts to addresses balance on the field, and not just by giving owners more money, but this doesn’t seem like a way to change the behavior of a miserly owner (that the Tigers are included here is a separate issue). Anyway, all of this is patently more interesting than tonight’s game. However, tonight’s game is better than whatever else is on TV, so let’s go M’s.
Charlie Furbush went on the 15-day DL with a strained [edit: triceps, not forearm] so Steve Delabar was recalled about a day after his latest demotion. Option years are…eventful.
1: Ackley
2: Ichiro
3: Wells
4: Montero (C)
5: Smoak
6: Seager
7: Olivo (DH)
8: Saunders
9: Ryan
9:
SP: Kevin Millwood
Ichiro
Sorry for not writing here much for the last couple of weeks, but our 11 day trip to the Northwest was a much needed break, and my wife and I enjoyed just getting away for a while. Thanks to Seattle and Victoria for the fantastic weather while we were in town, and to Felix for being amazing on Saturday night. I’ve been playing catchup for the last few days since getting back to the oppressive heat and humidity of the east coast, but figured it’s probably time to talk about Ichiro again.
Yesterday, Jay Buhner made it clear what he thinks about the team giving Ichiro a multi-year extension, using language that might get him uninvited from spring training next year. And, over at FanGraphs, Michael Barr tackled the idea of honoring Ichiro by not letting him create more unpleasant memories beyond this season. While Ichiro has always been somewhat of a polarizing figure, it appears to me that there’s something of a consensus forming among those who follow this team closely – no one really wants Ichiro back next year.
And yes, I’m in that group too. I’ve defended Ichiro for years against unfounded criticisms about his skillset, his personality, and attitudes that are more about cultural differences than anything else, but it’s impossible to ignore the reality that Ichiro just isn’t a very good player anymore. He showed some signs of life early in the season, but he’s been an absolute disaster for the last couple of months, and even his speed and defense don’t offset the nothing offensive player he’s become.
Even giving him full credit for his defense, Ichiro’s at +1.8 WAR over 1,119 plate appearances in the last two seasons, which makes him about as valuable as Willie Bloomquist. In fact, there’s not a lot of differences between Ichiro and Willie anymore, and based on overall ability to contribute to a contender, they’re about equally useful. If you were building a contender with no regards to ego or salary, you might be fine with having both as part-time guys, but if you’re a rebuilding team, you’re looking for something else entirely. From a performance perspective, the Mariners should be no more interested in giving Ichiro a starting job next year than they would be giving one to Bloomquist.
Ichiro had a great career in Seattle. As Jack said the other day, he is a franchise icon. But, the reality is that he has nothing left to offer the Mariners, and the organization shouldn’t be a charity for players who want to keep on playing well past the time when they’re useful on-field performers. The team already went through the painful end with Ken Griffey Jr in 2010, and should not be in any kind of hurry to repeat that situation.
Yes, there are dynamics in play with the ownership and Ichiro’s desire to hit some milestones in America, such as getting to 3,000 hits. It’s probably not as easy as just telling him thanks for the great years and moving on. But, regardless of the politics, that’s exactly what the Mariners need to do. They don’t employ Edgar Martinez, Jay Buhner, or Dan Wilson in an on-field capacity anymore, because while they’re beloved franchise heros, they aren’t capable of helping the team win. The organization needs to begin to view Ichiro in that same light.
If he wants to keep playing in the US, tell him you’ll have no hard feelings watching him in another uniform, and wish him luck getting to play for a contender. If he wants to go back to Japan and finish his career there, have a huge party that celebrates Ichiro’s accomplishments as a Mariner and puts the spotlight back on his productive years as a vital cog on some really good teams. But if he wants to open 2013 as a member of the Mariners 25 man roster, the answer should be “I’m sorry, but that opportunity isn’t available.”
Ichiro was a great player, but at this point in his career, it’s time for the organization to begin to look for his replacement. They have to do what’s in the best interests of the Mariners. And in this case, those interests are best served by concluding his career in Seattle in 2012.
Game 92, Mariners at Royals
Blake Beavan vs. Ryan Verdugo, 5:10pm
The M’s faced the primary return in the Melky Cabrera trade yesterday, and today they get the prospect the Giants threw in: left-hander Ryan Verdugo. Verdugo’s MLB debut tonight may come against the team he grew up watching, as he attended high school in Lake Stevens and pitched for Skagit Valley College before transferring to LSU. The Giants drafted him twice; once out of Skagit Valley and then got him to sign after a year in Baton Rouge, and then packaged him with Jonathan Sanchez to get Melky Cabrera last winter.
There’s very little to go on pitch fx wise, but he pitched in the 2010 Arizona Fall League and made an appearance or two this spring training in the Royals’ pitch fx-equipped park. It would appear he’s primarily a fastball/slider guy, with a fastball in the 90-91mph range, a slider with sharp vertical break around 80-82 and a change-up with arm-side run. The lefty seems to have almost no horizontal movement on his four-seam fastball, so he may have a somewhat deceptive over-the-top delivery, sort of like Tigers lefty Drew Smyly.
He’s spent most of his MiLB career with the Giants as a reliever, piling up impressive strike-out totals – through 2010, he struck out 193 hitters in 135 total innings (including the AFL). Unfortunately, his control wasn’t great, so he walked 75 over that time frame as well. The Giants decided to move him to the rotation in 2011, and at AA Richmond, he maintained his high K/high BB ways over the course of 130 innings. With the Royals in AAA, the K rate’s down a bit, and he’s had some HR troubles, though this is partially a matter of league/park factors (being a fly-baller in the PCL is hazardous to one’s FIP). His platoon splits are noticeable, but nothing eye-popping; given his fastball’s movement, I wouldn’t expect much in the way of splits, so it may be a case where his slider’s far more advanced than his change-up.
Blake Beavan’s been called up from Tacoma to make this start, with Steve Delabar making the very familiar journey down to Tacoma. The right-hander made six starts after his mid-June demotion, and Beavaned his way to a 4-0 record with a sub-3 ERA. He didn’t suddenly get a putaway pitch or gain velocity – in fact he’s become even more of a pitch-to-contact guy. His MLB K rate in 2011/12 was absurdly low, but in AAA this year, it’s even lower: an absurd 9.4%. Predictably, the advanced metrics are about as high on him as Dave Cameron. I think the M’s have an opportunity to Aaron Cook the Royals tonight – remember how frustrated we all were (and Eric Wedge was) after the Aaron Cook shutout in which the Red Sox hurler K’d 2 and threw something like three dozen pitches to get through 9 innings? Well, those remain the *only strikeouts Cook’s recorded this year*. If there’s anyone capable of doing the improbable things that Cook’s doing, it’s an extreme ground-ball guy. But Beavan isn’t far behind. I bear no ill-will towards the Royals or their fans, but I really hope there’s a lot of “How could we make it so easy for…THAT guy?” chatter tonight in the midwest.
The line-up:
1: Ackley
2: Ichiro
3: Wells
4: Montero (DH)
5: Smoak
6: Seager
7: Olivo (C)
8: Saunders
9: Ryan
SP: Beavan
It’s mid-July and it’s injury-assisted, but the M’s seem to have found a fairly stable line-up. Jaso plays occasionally against righties, and Montero/Olivo swap the C/DH duties, but there haven’t been too many surprises recently.