A Quick Note On Wins Versus The Central
When you’re looking at any kind of statistic, the context always matters. It’s why we talk about things like park effects, changing league norms, and number of opportunities where a player had the platoon advantage. The environment around you has an impact on your results, and when you’re trying to use results to project future performance, you have to account for those variables.
So, when the Mariners go 25-13 since the all-star break, it’s necessary to point out that those 38 games include seven wins against the Royals and three wins each against the Twins and Indians. Since the All-Star break, the Mariners are 13-1 against the AL Central, and 12-12 against the AL West/East. There’s no question that the team’s recent winning streaks have been influenced by the amount of games they’ve played against bad AL Central teams.
But, adjusting for context doesn’t mean you just throw out the positive results against weaker opponents. After all, everyone gets to play the AL Central at different times of the year, and not everyone goes 13-1 against them over a month’s worth of baseball. So, in the interest of putting these recent victories in their proper context, here is each AL team’s record against AL Central opponents this year:
Seattle: 22-12
Detroit: 26-17
Baltimore: 20-14
Boston: 21-15
Texas: 18-15
New York: 17-15
Chicago: 25-22
Toronto: 18-15
Oakland: 18-16
Anaheim: 16-17
Minnesota: 23-24
Tampa Bay: 13-17
Kansas City: 20-24
Cleveland: 20-27
It should not be surprising that the Tigers have fared well against the Central, as they get the most games against their division rivals and — most importantly — they don’t have to play themselves. While KC, Minnesota, and Cleveland’s match-ups include games against Justin Verlander, Miguel Cabrera, and Prince Fielder, the Tigers don’t have to play intra-squad games and instead get to beat up on the weaker vessels.
But, notice that even with that advantage, no team has performed better against the AL Central than the Mariners. The Mariners are 10 games over .500 against that division – the Rangers, Yankees, White Sox, and A’s are a combined 11 games over .500 against the Central. The Rays are four games under .500 against the Central. The Angels are a game under .500 against the Central.
Put simply, the Mariners just beat the brains out of three teams that are not good baseball teams, but no other AL team has exploited those three to the same effect. Even if we just limit the records to vs CLE/MIN/KC, it doesn’t make much of a difference.
SEA: 16-6
DET: 19-13
CHW: 21-15
NYY: 9-5
TEX: 8-6
BAL: 14-10
TB: 11-9
OAK: 13-11
LAA: 13-11
Every team in the playoff race (and no, I don’t count the Mariners among those teams) in the AL has a winning record against MIN/CLE/KC, but no team is even close to the Mariners mark against them.
So, yeah, the quality of competition lately hasn’t been very good. But, no, the way in which the Mariners just ran through the weaklings of the American League is not normal. And a big part of being a legitimately good team is beating legitimately bad teams.
Remember how we said the Mariners are 13-1 against these three clubs since the All-Star break and 12-12 against everyone else? Well, in this case, everyone else is Tampa Bay (six games), New York (six games), Texas (three games), Anaheim (three games), Baltimore (three games), and Toronto (three games). In other words, the Mariners held their own against five of the better teams in the American League and (and one mediocre team), and then destroyed the bad teams they played.
That’s exactly the Yankees do most every year. Last year, when they 97-65 and won the AL East, they went 25-27 against the other four 90 win teams in the AL (TB, BOS, DET, and TEX) and 72-38 against everyone else.
The reality is that no one really runs over other good teams. Whenever you see a team on a prolonged winning streak, odds are really good that there were some bad opponents involved. Winning records are produced by holding your own against quality competition and then beating up on inferior clubs. And that’s exactly what the Mariners have done since the All-Star break.
Comments
32 Responses to “A Quick Note On Wins Versus The Central”
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.
Here is to hoping that they continue that while playing the White Sox. It would be really nice to see that since it has seemed like they have the M’s number in the last couple of years.
Yeah, it’s another sign that the team is improving – they are regularly beating the bad teams right now. We’ve had plenty of examples, in past seasons, where the Mariners were the bad team everyone else beat up on. In those years, even the bad teams gave the Mariners trouble. Remember how depressing that was?
But the caveat is – it was also this very same 2012 season when we were all complaining about the Mariners making mediocre pitchers look like Cy Young. So while the evidence is there that the team is continuing to develop and get better, there’s also evidence they’ve got a ways to go yet – certainly in terms of consistency, anyway.
Thanks for the breath of fresh air, Dave. I am enjoying how excited the M’s blogosphere is about our recent success, but I’m seeing so much about how we are potential wild card contenders. As much as I wish it were true, I’m more than content to just enjoy seeing my favorite team play good baseball for a while.
Seeing you say that you don’t consider us contenders is a much-needed reality check for me. Maybe next year! This year’s goal is still .500 baseball.
One sure sign that the M’s are on the upswing is the increased number of USSM posts Dave has put up in the last two weeks. Thanks, and keep up the good work. Your insights are much appreciated.
That actually has more to do with the fact that the trade deadline is over and we hired Jeff to write at FanGraphs, so I’m not carrying the load as much over there as I was a month ago.
@thinkfull, your last comment requires one small emendation:
“Maybe next year! This year’s goal is still [s].500 baseball[s] to be one game better than the Angels.”
Whatever the reason is behind the recent uptick in USSM articles – I always enjoy reading them. Thank you (and Jay, and Marc, and Mike) for your work here.
In the past 30 days, the Ms have put up
83 wRC+ batting: good for 29th place
4.03 FIP: good for 14th place
44.0 UZR good for 1st place
So for the past month or so the batting hasn’t been that great, pitching is averageish while the fielding has been awesome at least by UZR.
Oh, and thanks to Derek too – he’s posted a few times despite “retiring”.
Your numbers are just wrong. Actual numbers over last 30 days:
wRC+: 90 (20th in MLB)
FIP-: 87 (2nd in MLB)
UZR: N/A (don’t have splits for UZR)
The offense has been below average, the pitching has been excellent, and the fielding has probably been very good, given the .266 BABIP the pitchers have allowed.
This is basically the model the M’s have been trying to build for several years – great pitching and defense, average-ish offense. It works when those things actually all happen. It doesn’t work when the offense is horrific and the pitching and defense are just okay, like the past couple of years.
Dave, I saw that Matthew wrote about the 2013 payroll over at LL today. I was wondering if you’re going to do something similar? I’d like to hear your thoughts about payroll going into next season, whether or not they should raise it and a couple of free agents that they should look to acquire.
I fully agree with the guys about the uptick in articles. It is greatly appreciated, I thank you very much! I really enjoy all of the analyzing of the M’s
I wanted to compare these as winning percentages, and figured I’d share the output. Really struck me. Here are both sets of numbers/records.
Seattle: 22-12 .647
Detroit: 26-17 .605
Baltimore: 20-14 .588
Boston: 21-15 .583
Texas: 18-15 .545
New York: 17-15 .531
Chicago: 25-22 .532
Toronto: 18-15 .545
Oakland: 18-16 .529
Anaheim: 16-17 .485
Minnesota: 23-24 .489
Tampa Bay: 13-17 .433
Kansas City: 20-24 .455
Cleveland: 20-27 .426
SEA: 16-6 .727
DET: 19-13 .594
CHW: 21-15 .583
NYY: 9-5 .643
TEX: 8-6 .571
BAL: 14-10 .583
TB: 11-9 .550
OAK: 13-11 .542
LAA: 13-11 .542
Here’s the key question – Is this performance since the break an aberration, or something we might reasonably expect going forward?
Well, it’s encouraging that we went 9-11 before the break against the Central and 13-1 since. It beats the other way around. You want to see improvement and while there will be some regression, it’s good to see. I hope it continues!
Age-related development and decline are not events that happen in steps during the off-season; Players age continually through the season. So, as a general rule, I think it’s reasonable to expect that a team\ dominated by younger players would tend to show relative improvement vis a vis other teams during the course of a season. I’m encouraged by evidence that this might be occurring with the Mariners this season.
The thing that I want to see from the Mariners the rest of the season is consistent play like what we have been seeing a bit more of lately. This team still has gaps in the lineup but by showing that their is talent here, and that we may be a lot closer than people thought could be the thing that GMZ needs to bring in better pieces this off season. I’m still not a big fan of spending 200 million for a player but the Mariners should have the ability to bring in some reasonably priced upgrades in a few spots and help this team become a contender.
Almost makes you wish for a split season like MLB had back during the strike-shortened ’81 campaign. We could (possibly) win the 2nd half!
No, doesn’t really make anyone wish for that. Player strikes suck no matter what–just ask the ’94 Expos and the ghost of Butch Henry.
At this point I would be okay with the minor league way of determining playoff team with one team getting a playoff spot in the first half and a team getting a spot in the second half. The M’s would be looking good right now.
Hmm I checked the numbers again (I got them from Fangraphs). My mistake was assuming that the splits (Last 30 days) don’t change if you click from Batting to Pitching.
It resets to Full Season if you go from Batting to Pitching etc.
There’s a stat called Fld in batting. I assume that stands for Fielding but I couldn’t find mention of it in the Glossary. There’s splits available for that .
A win is a win and when you count them all up at season’s end it doesn’t matter who you beat.
Dave makes the valid point that even if the Mariners have beat up on bad teams, no one else, none of the best teams in baseball, have done as well. That is something not to be ignored.
Transient Gadfly:
They are both fine- and achievable- goals!
A win is a win and when you count them all up at season’s end it doesn’t matter who you beat.
Dave makes the valid point that even if the Mariners have beat up on bad teams, no one else, none of the best teams in baseball, have done as well. That is something not to be ignored.
Yup. You make hay here, it all counts in the standings.
And I think it’s a separate point that the Ms were .500 against good teams. Mark of a competitive team, doncha think?
On my way home I had the radio on 710 tonight and there was a guy on there “breaking down” the stats from the streak. The part I heard was almost exactly the same as your first paragraph. I heard that first, but looking at the time stamp, Dave was first with the info.
One major difference though, the other “analyst” grouped Toronto with Minny, the Indians and KC, so that M’s came out 7-11 against the good teams, confirming his stance that the M’s are not good, and that this is not progress and that we should not get excited about this.
Once I heard who it was I changed the station…
Yeah, his premise recently seems to be, “they’re not winning the way I said they needed to win, so it doesn’t count”.
The other thing to bear in mind is that there has been real roster turnover, and lineup turnover, since the beginning of the season. Ichiro is gone, Figgins is entirely benched and Olivo is a part-time player. Seager is a regular, Robinson and Thames are in the outfield and Jaso makes regular appearances behind the plate. Noesi is down, League is gone, Delabar is gone. This is not the same team that was doing all the losing.
Does that mean these kids are the second coming of 1995? Heck no. But to compare April to August is not to compare the identical team in two months.
This is perhaps not the right post to pose this question…but just in case. And forgive me if the answer has been said ad nauseum and somehow it got by me:
But will we ever see the return of The Future Forty?
The farm is in THE most intriguing state I’ve ever seen it in, and perhaps the most talent-laden I can ever remember us being. I would LOVE Dave’s- or Marc W’s or anyone else at USSMariner’s- take on it.
I’ll second the Future Forty request.
Personally .500 is still my goal and expectation now for this season to be a success. With another off-season to reload 90 wins next year seems a reasonable goal.
This series against the White Sox should be very informative as to the M’s current true talent level.
This series against the White Sox should be very informative as to the M’s current true talent level.
Or just a garden-variety shellacking that doesn’t tell you anything either way. The M’s are 1-5 against the White Sox this season. While they don’t face Sale this weekend, they also don’t present Felix.
If the M’s finish the season series against the White Sox 1-8, or 2-7, that doesn’t really tell you anything different about Dave’s basic premise above.
Then again, again, the M’s are 5-1 against the Tigers. The Tigers have a pretty good shot at locking up the 2nd WC by fending off the likely AL Central champs and feeding on 3 teams that are way out of the race, while the other WC contenders have a direct shot at each other. Would be nice if the M’s figured out a way to have the White Sox’s number this weekend the way they figured out the Tigers…
“a big part of being a legitimately good team is beating legitimately bad teams.”
Totally agree. This is one of those points that is so obvious in retrospect but rarely recognized. We will know the Mariner’s are truly playoff contenders when they routinely beat up on most of the other AL West teams and hold their own against the best non-Ms team(s).
Are you guys hearing this possible Dodgers/Red Sox trade? Wow.. Crawford, Gonzalez, Beckett and Punto might all be headed to LA in a giant blockbuster of salary relief and aging players.
Are you guys hearing this possible Dodgers/Red Sox trade? Wow.. Crawford, Gonzalez, Beckett and Punto might all be headed to LA in a giant blockbuster of salary relief and aging players.
Jesus Christ, talk about pulling all the stops on a division title. Makes all the sense in the world for Boston, though. They have to blow that foundation up and start again.
So who knows the combo to the Dodgers money-printing shop??