Ninth Inning Freakout Thread
Three outs to go, then we riot.
Game 119, Rays at Mariners
Felix vs Hellickson, 12:40 pm.
Happy Felix Day!
Big news in baseball is Melky Cabrera just got nailed with a 50 game suspension for failing a PED test. He’s admitted to using testosterone, and is not blaming the failed test on improper procedures or confusion about a supplement. Cabrera is also going to be a free agent in a few months, and was someone that the Mariners might have had interest in signing to improve the outfield. His price just suddenly went through the floor. It’s now a pretty interesting conversation about whether the Mariners should pursue Cabrera on a short term deal to give him a chance to re-build his image and get through a productive season without a failed test. We’ll have a post on this soon.
Today, though, it’s Felix!
Ackley, 2B
Saunders, CF
Montero, DH
Jaso, C
Seager, 3B
Smoak, 1B
Robinson, LF
Thames, RF
Ryan, SS
Game 118, Rays at Mariners
Kevin Millwood vs. Matt Moore, 7:10pm
Matt Moore’s still one of the best young pitchers in baseball, and while he hasn’t quite ascended to the Verlander/Felix/Weaver level of AL starters, he’s been excellent in the past month or so. Including his start against the M’s on July 22nd, he’s given up 3 runs in his last 25 2/3 IP, over four starts. He’s kept his walk rate in check, as that’s been a major problem for him, and he’s struck out 25 (against 7 BBs) in that stretch.
One of the possible reasons he hasn’t been able to maintain a stratospheric strikeout rate or keep his RA/9 under 4 has been his struggles against left-handed batters. Remember, Moore’s a lefty himself, and a lefty whose fastball *averages* 95 mph. He’s got a curveball that scouts have praised in the past, so on paper, he should be death on a stick against lefties. Instead, in his brief MLB career, lefties have a wOBA of .341 while he’s holding righties to a .300 mark.
This isn’t new, either. He was great against lefties in the minors, but it was righties that he completely dominated. In 2011, he struck out nearly 40% of the righties he faced, but managed to K only 23% of lefties. In the majors, he’s K’d 25% of righties but only 16% of lefties, and he’s walked more lefties as well. He’s faced righties over 3X more often than lefties in his career, but maybe that’s not the ideal split. He’s brand new, so ALL of these numbers are small samples and should be taken with a grain of salt, but MLB hitters have spoken, and to date, they agree that his change-up is way, way better than his curve-ball.
Kevin Millwood is probably as surprised as all of you that he’s still a Seattle Mariner.
The other big story of the day is that Justin Smoak’s been recalled, and will bat 6th tonight. Mike Carp’s gone on the 15-day DL with tightness in his hip. Mike Zunino’s debut with Jackson’s underway – he’s catching James Paxton, and threw out a baserunner trying to steal 2nd in the first inning of the game. His first at-bat was a hard-luck line-out to 3B.
1: Ackley (2B)
2: Robinson (LF)
3: Montero (DH)
4: Seager (3B)
5: Wells (CF)
6: Smoak (1B)
7: Olivo (C)
8: Thames (RF)
9: Ryan (SS)
SP: Millwood
Four righties in the line-up, though I presume Wells is in there just to give Mike Saunders a much-needed day off.
Go M’s!
Big Day in the M’s Minor League System
The M’s finally announced a big international signing today, a month after the July 2nd deadline. Welcome to the M’s organization, Luis Gohara! Gohara’s a Brazilian pitcher who just turned 16 – he actually wasn’t able to sign on July 2nd, as he was still 15 then. Despite his age, he’s reportedly touched 94mph over the past year, and BA had him as the 7th best international prospect this year.
In addition, today marks the first time that all three of the M’s big pitching prospects will take the hill on the same day. [Edit: Awww, it’s not to be. Anthony Fernandez has been announced as the game 2 starter, not Taijuan Walker]
Jackson’s playing a double-header against the Braves’ affiliate, and James Paxton starts game one (at 3:05pm Pacific) and Anthony Fernandez starts game two. And as JY mentioned the other day, the Generals have a new catcher in the fold, Mike Zunino, who’ll be making his AA debut. In Nashville, Danny Hultzen makes his first start since late July; it’s going to be fascinating to see if his command’s better after the long layoff. The best pitching prospect in the low minors, Everett’s Victor Sanchez, starts for Everett at Spokane.
Jesus Montero, First Baseman
Mike Carp is going on the DL with a hip issue, so the Mariners are going to have to call someone up from the minors in order to fill the gap. It will probably just be Justin Smoak, even though he hasn’t hit very well in Tacoma, since the organization isn’t exactly teeming with first base options in the high minors. In talking to Wedge about the various options, Shannon Drayer reports that Wedge was asked about using Jesus Montero at first base – his answer:
“Not yet, he’s still working on it,” he answered. “We are not going to put him out there until we feel he is ready for it.”
Montero has been taking ground balls at first base in batting practice for a while now, but this is the first public confirmation that the Mariners are working towards using him as a first baseman. The writing has been on the wall for a while, though. While Montero has caught both of the last two games, 14 of his previous 17 outings had come at DH, and the selection of Mike Zunino (and subsequent promotion to Double-A) suggests that the Mariners have already determined that Montero’s catching career is going to be short lived. Whether they intend for him to remain a part-time catcher next year or not, the reality is that his long term future is a 1B/DH, and he’s more valuable to the organization if he can play first than if he can’t.
With Carp hurt and Smoak still broken, the final six weeks of the season is the perfect time to look at Montero at first base. If he’s not ready yet, that’s fine, but they can speed up the clock and give him more serious reps at first base before games in order to get him ready to play there, and personally, I’d like to see Montero play first base for the entire month of September. That gives them a couple of weeks to get him comfortable over there, and they can patch things together with Smoak/Ackley/whoever for a little while until he’s deemed to be ready.
It’s where he’s going to end up. There is no obvious long term first baseman in the organization currently playing the position. They have an opportunity to give Montero some work at first base in a lost season, where he can get some of the learning curve out of the way and hopefully be ahead of the game, rather than starting the transition next spring.
Hopefully, the organization realizes that they have an opportunity here to get a jump start on a switch they’re going to have to make soon anyway. With Jaso around as a quality stop-gap until Zunino gets here, there’s really not much of a need to have Montero continue catching, and there is a need for a legitimate first baseman in the organization. It’s in everyone’s best interests if the transition happens sooner than later.
Game 117, Rays at Mariners
Blake Beavan vs. Alex Cobb, 7:10pm
The M’s return home to face the Tampa Bay Rays, who’ve won six in a row to take over the wild card lead from Baltimore/Anaheim/Oakland. The M’s start Blake Beavan, who’s given up 4 HRs over his last two starts. Safeco should help with that, but as Dave’s mentioned, just throwing strikes isn’t going to be enough – he’s got to throw good strikes. He’s still been better since his return from Tacoma, giving up 2 walks in 34 1/3 to go with 4 HRs and 20 Ks (but 20 runs). He could still stand to use his breaking pitches more effectively; Olivo seemed to call for a first-pitch curve nearly every time against Baltimore, but he was either behind in the count or wasn’t able to put hitters away. We’ll see if Jesus Montero has a different approach in mind.
The Rays send Alex Cobb to the hill – the guy who was hit on the shin by a line drive when he faced the M’s in July. As I talked about in that preview, he’s a sinker/splitter pitcher, who gets the most out of subpar stuff by keeping the ball on the ground and in the ballpark. He’s coming off of two excellent starts, going 7 innings and giving up 1 run in each of them – one against Oakland and the other against Toronto. His control may be getting sharper, as he’s giving up fewer walks later in the year, including just 1 in his last 21 innings.
As JY mentioned, Mike Zunino’s been called up to AA Jackson; they’ve got an off day, so look for him to make his high-minors debut tomorrow. The Rainiers broke yet another losing streak last night against Memphis behind a solid outing from Andrew Carraway – they play the Redbirds tonight as Hector Noesi gets the start. Charles Kaalekahi’s starting for Pulaski right now, and Rusty Shellhorn starts for Everett tonight at Spokane.
The line-up:
1: Ackley (1B)
2: Saunders
3: Seager (2B)
4: Jaso (DH)
5: Montero (C)
6: Robinson
7: Thames
8: Figgins (3B)
9: Ryan
SP: Beavan
Looks like Figgy’s rewarded for his two-hit day yesterday, and it looks like Carp’s still not 100% after straining his hip on Seager’s amazing play to get Mike Trout.
Minor League Wrap (8/6-12/12)
Before I get to anything else here, as I was writing the wrap last night, word came over from Pat Dillon that Zunino is going to Jackson. This might mean Marlette in Everett, or it might mean a lesser move.
Going outside to other sources, John Sickels had two features on the M’s this week, one reviewing his pre-season top 20 (Disappointments: F-Mart, Catricala, Ruffin. Enthusiasm: Romero, Pryor, Capps, Miller) and he also took at look at Pryor and Capps. Churchill also talked about Brandon Maurer, which is good, because Maurer is neato. Baseball America also ran their best tools survey in which relatively few Mariners prospects were named.
To the jump!
Read more
The Mariners Upcoming Second Base Problem
Last year, Dustin Ackley had a fantastic Major League debut, not just at the plate but also in the field, proving that the “he can’t play second base” criticisms were about two years out of date. He still showed some inexperience at times, but he clearly possessed the physical skills to handle second base, and he was improving at a rapid rate. Given that he profiled as an above average left-handed hitter, his ability to also handle second base made him a valuable asset, and the best non-Felix building block on the roster.
Obviously, things haven’t gone so well this year. He hasn’t fixed his contact issues and his power has taken a step backwards, leading to a particularly unproductive offensive season. The low power/high strikeout combination is a proven loser, and he simply has to fix the strikeout issue in order to become the hitter that everyone expected. That he hasn’t shown any improvement in this area all year is somewhat concerning. However, Ackley’s still a guy with a terrific track record, and his high contact rates suggest that his strikeout problems won’t be permanent. With Ackley, patience is the best approach. If he cuts down on the strikeouts, he’s a really good second baseman.
However, second base has suddenly become a pretty interesting position for the Mariners organizationally. In some order, the Mariners best middle infield prospects are currently:
Nick Franklin, Tacoma:
He’s still considered a shortstop prospect, but he’s actually played more games at second base this year (23) for the Rainiers than he has at shortstop (21). His range at short has always been considered fringy, and there has long been talk that second base might be his eventual home in the Major Leagues. The Mariners have used him at both spots, and while he’s still the best shortstop prospect in the system, there’s a pretty decent chance that he won’t have the range to hold down shortstop in the big leagues.
Brad Miller, Jackson:
The team’s second round pick last year, Miller was a shortstop at Clemson and has played the position exclusively since joining the Mariners. However, his pre-draft profile suggested that he might need to shift over to second base due to some defensive inconsistencies, and he’s made 34 errors in 129 games at the position this year. It’s not unusual for minor leaguers to make a lot of errors — the fields are often not in good condition, for one thing — but it’s something you see more out of 18-year-olds in A-ball than college-trained 23-year-olds in Double-A. Miller’s not a world class range guy, and the issues simply catching the balls hit to him might force a move off of short. If he can make some big improvements, he could stick at short, but second base seems like a potential landing spot for him as well.
Stefen Romero, Jackson:
One reason Miller hasn’t played a single game at second base this year — he’s been playing next to Romero for most of the season. They both started the year in High Desert and both got promoted to Jackson mid-season (but at different times), and Romero has hit his way into legitimate prospect status, leaving the position next to Miller essentially filled for most of the year. Romero was the team’s 12th round pick in 2010 and wasn’t supposed to be much of a prospect, but he just won’t stop hitting. Since getting moved out of the hitter friendly Cal League, he’s actually gotten better, mostly by hitting for even more power. 24 of his 55 hits in Jackson have gone for extra bases, and among players with at least 150 plate appearances, he’s been the second best hitter in the entire Southern League this year. Romero turns 24 in a couple of months and is a bit of a defensive question mark who might profile best in the outfield, but he hasn’t been a total disaster at second base this year. He’s kind of the new Vinnie Catricala, and it wouldn’t be shocking if he showed up to Spring Training next year and hit his way onto the team. Where he’d play isn’t really obvious, but second base would at least an option in the short term if the position were available.
Essentially, the organization has three interesting prospects who might profile as second baseman in the Majors, each of whom hit really well in Double-A this year. Franklin hasn’t hit as well in Tacoma, and Catricala’s breakthrough performance in a half season in Jackson last year should be a reminder that a couple hundred good at-bats in the Southern League aren’t enough to start rearranging your Major League roster just yet, but the team is deeper at second base than they are at any other position.
They’re also thinner in the outfield than they are at any other position. In fact, you could make a case that the Mariners should prioritize acquiring two legitimate Major League outfielders this winter, with Saunders/Wells sharing one job and the other two spots going to imports who could upgrade the offense. But, getting two good big league outfielders in one off-season isn’t the easiest thing to do, and given their depth at second base, I’d imagine that shifting Dustin Ackley back to the outfield will probably come up in conversation within the front office.
On the one hand, there’s no question that second base is the spot where Ackley will have the most long term value, as it’s just far more difficult to find a good left-handed hitting second baseman than it is to find a good left-handed hitting outfielder. When the subject of moving Ackley to the outfield to make room for Kyle Seager at second base has been raised, I’ve been adamantly against it. However, part of why I’ve been against that kind of shift is that the organization doesn’t have anyone else to play third base, and Seager is just fine there, so turning two infielders into one infielder and one outfielder wouldn’t have actually helped anything.
Now, though, the Mariners are getting close to facing a situation where they just won’t have room for everyone. Between Seattle and Tacoma, there are four regular middle infield jobs. Neither Franklin nor Miller are ready to take over at shortstop yet, and Brendan Ryan‘s glove is worth keeping around, so he’s probably the team’s starting shortstop for one more year at least. That leaves 2B in Seattle and SS/2B in Tacoma, and Ackley, Franklin, Miller, and Romero all deserve one of those three spots. Someone has to move.
The easy answer is probably to move Romero. He was a third baseman in college who most scouts thought wasn’t athletic enough to stick at the position, much less move to a middle infield spot, and he’s basically a bat-first guy who will never be a big asset with the glove no matter where he plays. Physically, he looks like a left fielder, and the fact that the position is wide open right now should give him a chance to make the team next year, or at least be in line for an early promotion if he goes to Tacoma and keeps killing it. That would allow Miller and Franklin to share SS/2B in Tacoma and Ackley to keep working at hitting big league pitching without another position change.
But, that might just be putting off the decision for another year. If Franklin and/or Miller both hit well in Tacoma next year, but either one proves that they probably can’t hack it at as a Major League shortstop, there’s nothing else to do with them while Ackley’s at second base. Miller might not be more than a good utility infielder anyway, so it’s not the end of the world if he’s the new Mark McLemore, but Franklin’s a kid with some legitimate offensive potential who can also swing the stick from the left side. And, unlike Ackley, he probably doesn’t have the speed to be an above average Major League outfielder.
In an ideal world, Romero moves to left, Franklin sticks at short, Ackley cuts down on the strikeouts and entrenches himself at second base, and Miller turns into a fantastic play everywhere guy. But the ideal is unlikely, and it’s quite possible that Franklin is more of a second baseman than a shortstop, and if you want both on the big league team, then someone’s leaving the infield. And, based on their physical skills, it probably makes more sense to move Ackley than Franklin.
And, again, if you’re talking about potentially moving two second baseman to the outfield, both of whom you think could be valuable pieces on the 2013 roster, you probably need to be aware of that before you go making big moves to acquire multiple outfielders this winter. If the organization trades for Justin Upton and then signs Melky Cabrera in an effort to jumpstart the offense, and then you realize that Romero’s a left fielder and you might need to move Ackley to make room for Nick Franklin, all of the sudden there just isn’t room for everyone.
This isn’t an argument for the Mariners to do nothing to fix their outfield problems this winter, nor is it an appeal to move Ackley because we’re all excited about the shiny new kids hitting well in the minors. Romero could pull a Catricala. Franklin could stick at short. Ackley could remember how to hit and become the player he looked like last year. But, for planning purposes, the Mariners need to at least think about what they’re going to do with all these middle infielders they’ve got knocking on the door to the big leagues. How they plan on approaching this potential logjam affects other positions, and should influence the thought process that goes into making upgrades this off-season.
You don’t skip out on trading for Justin Upton (or whatever other good big league outfielder becomes available in trade – he’s just being used as a representation of a type of acquisition) because you have Stefen Romero or Nick Franklin coming up through the system. Heck, Romero or Franklin might even be a guy that would have to be included to get that kind of deal done, which would obviously render most of this conversation moot. But, it’s not something the front office can afford to just wait to have it “work itself out”, as is usually the case in most of these deals. Unless someone gets traded, the Mariners are going to have four young players for three middle infield jobs, so a decision on someone’s future is going to have be made before the 2013 season opens. They can’t just wait and see how it all plays out. Pretty soon, the organization is going to have to decide who their second baseman of the future actually is.
Game 116, Mariners at Angels
Jason Vargas vs. Jered Weaver, 12:35
Last night was fun, but today’s match-up’s obviously a tough one for the M’s. Wedge essentially repeats last night’s lefty-heavy line-up today, with Montero in the order in place of Miguel Olivo.
1: Ackley
2: Saunders
3: Seager
4: Jaso (DH)
5: Montero (C)
6: Carp
7: Thames
8: Robinson
9: Ryan
SP: Jason Vargas
[MiLB update:]
Andrew Carraway’s starting today for Tacoma at Memphis, and Taijuan Walker goes for Jackson. Jochi Ogando takes the hill for Pulaski and Jordan Shipers started for Clinton, though his day’s done after 8 batters.
[Update 2:]
Courtesy of Westside Guy in the comments, Franklin Gutierrez has had another setback in his recovery from a concussion. He’d been nearing a rehab start or two with the Everett Aquasox, but something obviously went wrong. I can’t say this is shocking, as he’s had a few setbacks already, but while the M’s are still hopeful he can play somewhere this season, I’m wondering if it wouldn’t be best to target the winter leagues instead. Guti picked up plantar fasciitis during his rehab for another injury, and hurt his oblique after returning from IBS last season; I think it might be advisable to rule out playing this year so his rehab can proceed at a more measured pace. Forget about rushing back to try to make some arbitrary deadline, Guti. Just get healthy. If you can.
Game 115, Mariners at Angels
Hisashi Iwakuma vs. Dan Haren, 6:05pm
Hisashi Iwakuma and his excellent splitter faces off against Dan Haren and his famous cutter. Haren’s been a good-to-excellent pitcher for a decade, so it’s somewhat surprising to see him struggle the way he has in 2012. He hasn’t been awful (well, he was for a while in the early part of the season), but he’s just not the Dan Haren that the Angels traded for. His FIP currently stands at 4.27, the highest it’s been since his first half-year in the big leagues back in 2003. The biggest problem for him has been right-handed batters, who’ve hit a collective .320/.353/.511 against the right-handed Haren this year. The reverse splits aren’t a massive surprise, as he’s been harder on lefties than righties over his career – but the magnitude of them suggest something’s amiss. He did take some time off with a sore back earlier in July, and he’s been better since then, but even so, a league-averagey pitcher isn’t what the Angels expected, and it’s one reason the A’s are neck-and-neck with their richer rivals to the south.
Haren’s been declining for a little while now, as his velocity’s now solidly in the high-80s, and not the 91-92 he used to work at:
Lucky for Haren, he’s never really been a pure fastball pitcher, and his cutter’s still reasonably effective despite losing a few ticks along with every other pitch. The problem is that without average FB velocity to back it up, and with the cutter itself coming in at 85mph, it’s something of a feast or famine pitch. That is, it gets a solid number of whiffs, but it no longer gets a lot of ground balls, and as a result, some cutters get hit a very long way. That’s part of the reason Haren’s suffering from a poor HR rate.
Iwakuma knows all about a bad HR rate, but he’s pitching in what’s normally a good fly-ball pitcher’s park. Of course, it’s broiling in Southern California tonight, so the ball may fly a bit further than it normally does.
Tom Wilhelmsen’s going to rejoin the team soon following the birth of his daughter last night – congratulations to Tom and his family. That should mean we won’t see the absurdist comedy of last night’s game in which the Ms didn’t use their emergency closer (Stephen Pryor) because they weren’t in a save situation.
Line-up:
1: Ackley
2: Saunders
3: Seager
4: Jaso (DH)
5: Carp
6: Thames
7: Olivo (C)
8: Robinson
9: Ryan
SP: Iwakuma
Looks like someone doesn’t buy into Haren’s reverse splits; the M’s have seven lefties in the line-up tonight, including the switch-hitting Robinson. Go M’s!