Game 114, Mariners at Angels
King Felix vs. Ervin Santana, 7:05pm
The M’s start Felix, and the Angels start their most frustrating, least effective pitcher of 2012. I know that the M’s were just swept in Baltimore by the likes of Zach Britton and Steve Johnson, but this is a winnable game. So go win it, M’s.
1: Ackley
2: Saunders
3: Montero (DH)
4: Jaso (C)
5: Seager
6: Carp
7: Wells
8: Thames
9: Ryan
SP: El Rey
Felix’s Velocity Is Back
Hey, remember early in the year when I was worried about Felix’s missing velocity? Yeah, about that… you can stop worrying now.
No, it’s not just because Felix has been ridiculously awesome the last few months, putting to rest any questions of whether he can succeed without a 95 MPH fastball. Given how good his change-up, curveball, and slider are, we were already pretty sure that was true. Instead, it’s because over the last month or so, Felix’s fastball has returned, and there’s not much difference between what he’s throwing now versus what he was throwing at the end of last year.
I know that graph isn’t the easy thing in the world to read, given that it goes all the way back to ’07, but focus on the right hand side of the image. You can see a big dip in maximum velocity at the beginning of the year, back when Felix was topping out at 92-93 and only hitting 94 on good days. Well, look at the max velocity in the last month or so – consistently hitting 95.
On June 1st, Felix averaged 92.0 MPH with his fastball for the first time all season. He then repeated that velocity (or beat it) in nine of his next 11 starts, and he’s been sitting at 93 for the last month. That is right in line with what he was throwing in the second half of 2011, and the upwards trend is comforting, especially as he carries another large workload this year.
Mid-20s Felix doesn’t throw as hard as early-20s Felix, and velocity isn’t central to Felix’s success, but I feel a little better about things with him throwing 95 again. Not that he ever really gave us reason to be worried, but if you had any lingering concern about where his fastball went, you can probably put those to bed. It’s back, and so is ridiculously dominant Felix.
Game 113, Mariners at Orioles
Kevin Millwood vs. Steve Johnson, 4:05pm
The less said about yesterday’s game the better, but I will say that Zach Britton wasn’t good. The O’s evidently agreed, and sent him down to AAA after the game. The only other thing to say has been said by Jeff Sullivan here: Mark Reynolds’ swing against Oliver Perez last night was funny, and you should watch it again and again.
The Orioles begin play today 4.5 games back of the Yankees in the AL East – ahead of the Rays, Jays and Red Sox. They’re a game back of Detroit for the first wild card, but they’re tied with Oakland for wild card #2. They’re very clearly in the playoff picture, and have a (very) outside shot at a pennant this year. It’s with that in mind that I’d like to draw your attention to the fact that the Orioles have used Chris Tillman (career rWAR of 0.3), Zach Britton (-0.8) and Steve Johnson (0) in this series. I’m not going to sit here and feel superior to the Orioles, who are *in a playoff race* and have already taken the series. But imagine what it must be like to be in a race and see your team trot out replacement level pitchers three days in a row. Luckily for us, we don’t even have to imagine what it feels like to lose to replacement level pitchers – it’s something of a hobby.*
The O’s pitching stats aren’t that bad, but that’s largely due to pitchers who aren’t healthy anymore. Jason Hammel was the clear ace of the staff after coming over in the mmph Jeremy Guthrie trade hahahahahaha, but he’s recovering from knee surgery. Wei-Yin Chen’s made the most starts, and he’s been very solid, but his xFIP’s a lot closer to Jason Vargas’ than it is to Felix’s. Jake Arrieta’s been unlucky and bad, and Tommy Hunter’s been every bit as bad as his ERA, but even Hunter’s hurting. And that brings us to today’s starter, Steve Johnson. A minor league vet, Johnson will be making his second MLB appearance today; his first came after Hammel went on the DL and today’s comes when Hunter couldn’t take the ball.
He’s got an over the top 90-92 (touching 93) fastball with absolutely no sink, and a very odd change-up that seems impervious to sink as well. As you can imagine, he’s not exactly a ground ball pitcher. It’s not easy to check GB% leaders in the minors, and minor league batted ball classification is probably trickier/more problematic than MLB classification, but I don’t remember the last time I saw a GB% as low as Johnson’s. The guy is Blake Beavan,** plus more walks. Ok, ok, he gets more K’s too, but he’s not a strikeout pitcher. He’s a pitch to contact guy, and that contact is almost always in the air. Sometimes, they’re pop-ups, but often, they’re line-drives. Because his fastball has almost no tail, he shouldn’t have huge platoon splits, but who knows – there’s just not much to go on with this guy.
The line-up is very left-handed today against the right-handed Johnson.
1: Ackley
2: Saunders
3: Montero (DH)
4: Jaso (C)
5: Seager
6: Carp
7: Robinson (LF)
8: Thames (RF)
9: Kawasaki
SP: Millwood
* – “Yes, we dabble in Waechtering. Waechtering? Oh, it’s like this combination of baseball and dance; sort of like capoeira with a bat. The first rule of Waechtering is that you never tell the pitcher that you’re Waechtering.”
** – Right down to the fact that they both got hammered in their first exposure to AAA, then came back and had a decent bounce-back in year two.
Game 112, Mariners at Orioles
Blake Beavan vs. Zach Britton, 4:05pm
Zach Britton’s season RA/ERA is 8.35. In his last two starts, he’s pitched 8 1/3 IP and given up 13 runs on 13 hits, 6 walks and 5 Ks. He’s pitched 18 terrible innings, and will probably lose his rotation spot with a poor performance tonight. It’s all gone wrong for the pitcher that started 2011 so strong, just missing out on an all-star bid. He was clearly out-pitching his peripherals in the first half last season, but his second half looked like a gambler’s fallacy version of regression – instead of regressing to the mean, he had equal and opposite luck. Of course, there was also a physical problem as well: shoulder stiffness that landed him on the DL in August.
This spring the shoulder was still sore. Instead of breaking camp with Baltimore, he went to AA and then AAA where he’s been solid, but considerably worse than he had been before. He made his debut with the Birds in mid-July and has one quality start in four tries. His velocity’s right where it was in 2011, but he’s not fooling hitters.
His primary pitch is a sinking two-seamer, but he had a good slider and change as well. The slider generated a lot of whiffs and helped him attack lefty hitters, whereas the change was a good weapon for whiffs as well as weak contact against right-handers. He’s throwing the same pitches this year, and his two-seamer’s getting just as many grounders, but poor command has put him in hitters’ counts, and he’s been awful in such situations.
Since his return from Tacoma, Blake Beavan has pitched 28 1/3 IP, struck out 18 hitters and given up only 1 walk (and 2 HBPs). He hasn’t been great, but this version of Beavan could be serviceable, as his FIP in that stretch is essentially right at 3.0. Today he faces a line-up with plenty of power, but with just as much swing-and-miss. He needs to expand the zone and get hitters to chase sliders off the plate, which is something he’s struggled to do in his career.
The line-up:
1: Ackley
2: Robinson (LF)
3: Saunders
4: Montero (DH)
5: Seager
6: Wells (RF)
7: Carp
8: Olivo (C)
9: Kawasaki
SP: Beavan
James Paxton takes the hill for Jackson tonight. Tai Walker was solid yesterday, giving up a run in 4 IP, but you can probably expect a few more short starts from him as the M’s ease back on his innings-pitched and total pitches. He threw 75 yesterday, which may be his limit going forward. The Rainiers still haven’t used Danny Hultzen since his turn was skipped last Thursday, but I’d imagine he’ll be on a pitch limit too. Paxton’s been so good recently that I find myself hoping for a late-season call-up to AAA. He’s thrown fewer innings thanks to his DL trip, and I’d want to see if he has any of the command problems that have bedeviled Hultzen.
The Indians DFA’d ex-Mariner Jose Lopez today, while ex-Mariner Garrett Olson was called up by the Mets – he’s pitched 4 innings in MLB since the M’s cut ties with him.
As Jason Churchill reported, the M’s signed right-hander Matt Anderson as a free agent this week, and have assigned him to the Arizona League. He’d been pitching in a wood-bat collegiate league in California where he apparently showed better velocity than he had during the regular season. The more well-known Cape Cod league’s wrapping up now, as some of the better collegiate players position themselves for next year’s draft. Lefty Sean Manaea‘s been a break-out star, striking out 85 (to only 7 walks) in 51 2/3 IP, running a 1.22 ERA, and reportedly touching 98mph. Sitting 3rd in the league strikeout table is UW product Austin Voth, with 52 in 35 2/3 IP; he’s had two games of 11 Ks in 6 innings. His RA and K:BB stats are down thanks to a poor start in one game, but his experience on the Cape should set him up well next season. Voth had a disappointing season for UW, and could be another player who’s used a wood-bat league to prove that they’d be more useful in pro ball than their college stats would suggest – Forrest Snow is the poster boy for this.
Bullet Points for 8/7
Several unrelated factoids for your delectation this Tuesday. None is worthy of a post on its own, but the combined power of several unrelated notes can… well, it looks better on the screen.
1: I know, I know: I jinxed the M’s with my game preview last night. I’m still stunned that Chris Tillman was able to slice through the M’s line-up despite having demonstrably worse stuff than when he faced them in July. I didn’t mind the M’s looking lost against a guy throwing 95+ with a great curve ball, but last night, Tillman dared the M’s to hit his 90-92 fastball, and the M’s politely declined. To be fair to Tillman, he was able to halt his velocity decline, and he hit his highest velocity of the game on his final pitch – a 94 mph fastball that Munenori Kawasaki hit for a single.
Tillman has now faced the M’s three times in his career, and is 3-0 with an ERA under 1. He’s held the M’s to a slugging percentage of .173 and an OPS of .381. Against *every other team,* Tillman’s 9-16 with an ERA over 5.5. He’s given up a slugging percentage of .492, and an OPS of .856. Against everyone else, batters average out to something like Shin-Soo Choo, Adrian Beltre or Joe Mauer. The M’s, collectively, have hit a bit worse than Clayton Kershaw.
There’ve been quite a few “Mariner Killers” down the years, from Rafael Palmeiro to Vlad Guerrero – but these have generally been great players who were just a bit better against Seattle. I asked on twitter and I’ll here: can you think of another replacement-level (or close to it) player that’s been this good against the M’s? If you grew up in the 80s, you might think of Mike Gallego, the Tacoma Tigers/Oakland A’s stalwart who seemed to come up with big hits against the M’s – but while he hit better against the M’s, it wasn’t anywhere near the kind of disparity we see with Tillman. Graham MacAree brought up Jeff Mathis, but he’s got similar splits to Gallego – noticeably better against Seattle, but not even the M’s have made him look like a good hitter. Rodrigo Lopez comes to mind for his six-game run in 2005-06 in which he went 5-1 with an ERA of about 2 (in previous seasons, the M’s knocked him around, as you’d expect). Do you all remember any terrible players that’ve played like all-stars against the M’s?
2: One of the great names in the M’s system, and all of minor league baseball for that matter, is no more. No, Forrest Snow didn’t change his name or anything – I mean Rashynol Michel is gone. For a blog with an analytical bent, you just can’t help but root for a guy named Rashynol, as irrational as that may be. Michel’s an outfielder from Curacao who’s been with the M’s AZL affiliate in Peoria. He hasn’t done a whole lot, as he’s put up .515 OPS as a 19 year old in his first US action. Perhaps in an effort to jump start his season, he’s now listed as “Raysheron Michel” which is still quite a good name, but that doesn’t quite get the stathead blood pumping. Curacao’s putting out some amazing ballplayers these days, and some even better names. Jurickson Profar manages both, but while Michel can’t match Profar’s tools, I think he’s got the edge in name. I’ll be on the look out for another saber-leaning prospect (we’ve had a Joba, so a Woba can’t be out of the question, and if we’ve had a Billy Sample, I’m holding out for one of his descendents nicknamed ‘Tiny’). Until then, I’ll always have old box scores where the “Rashynol” moniker lives on.
3: Larry Stone argues that the time has come for the M’s to DFA Chone Figgins. This isn’t the sort of post that can inspire a good debate, with each side making a good case for their point of view, but it’s good to see. The M’s wanted to rebuild his value in order to induce some sucker team to take on a portion of his remaining salary. That plainly hasn’t worked, and the team’s reluctant to use him and he’s been awful when they’ve done so. I think they gave this particularly experiment too much time as it stands, but they just need to pull the plug and move on.
Stone notes correctly that there’s really no one in Tacoma (or Jackson) who’s a natural fit to replace him, but he’s also quite right that just about any young prospect deserves the at-bats more than Figgins. Alex Liddi and Vinnie Catricala have suffered through sub-par seasons in Tacoma, but they’re at least going to be around next year. Erasmo Ramirez is going to need a 25-man spot when he’s brought back up soon (he was on a rehab assignment, but the M’s optioned him to give him a bit more time), and Franklin Gutierrez will need one when he’s recovered from his concussion.
Of the options Stone lists, I’m somewhat partial to Darren Ford, the right-handed CF the M’s got from the Giants organization this spring. Dave thought he might come up last month, but the team went with Trayvon Robinson instead, as Robinson was already on the 40-man. DFA’ing Figgins obviously opens up a 40-man spot, so it might be a good time to reward Ford for his solid (if brief) season. Ford is a better CF than Robinson (by a lot) and perhaps Wells (Ford covers more ground, but Wells’ arm keeps things close), is a good baserunner and has some contact skills that might play a bit with Seattle. He’d be somewhat superfluous if Gutierrez was healthy, but Gutierrez isn’t healthy. In any event, what’s *really* superfluous is having Chone Figgins around playing two or three times a month.
4: The stories about the M’s amazing road offense have died down, as they currently sport a 95 wRC+ on the road. That’s not bad, and it’s a far cry better than their home splits, but it shows that they’re still below average. There were a lot of stories about the M’s leading the league in runs scored on the road, but that was always driven by the fact that they’d played more road games than any other team, and now that other teams have caught up (and now that games in Arlington make up a smaller fraction of their total), the M’s have settled into the lower tier of road offenses. Again, there’s still a major gap between home and road, and something’s clearly depressed offense at Safeco this year, but Safeco didn’t destroy an above-average offense.
Game 111, Mariners at Orioles
Jason Vargas vs. Chris Tillman, 4:05pm
Chris Tillman’s difficult to figure out. The second piece in the Erik Bedard trade (or maybe the co-#1 piece), Tillman’s raw stuff had scouts drooling, and while his performance record didn’t quite match up to the stuff, he’d been at High Desert for much of it. Moving up to AA in the Orioles system, Tillman put it all together and became one of the game’s best pitching prospects. He was just as solid in AAA, and moved up to the Orioles mid way through 2009.
Like many young hurlers, Tillman got lit up in his first taste of MLB. His stuff was good, but he wasn’t sitting in the mid-90s like he had in 2007-8. His curve was good, but it wasn’t getting swinging strikes like it should (under 9% of curves went for whiffs in 2009 – that’s Blake-Beavan-in-2011 territory). He was a fastball/curve pitcher who didn’t throw a two-seamer and gave up a ton of fly balls and wasn’t missing bats; predictably, he gave up too many long balls, and he started 2010 back in the minors.
When he returned, he was a different pitcher, and that doesn’t mean he’d corrected the flaws in his game. He started out averaging 91-92 with his fastball, but this was down to the high 80s after July. His K rate continued to decline, and he suddenly couldn’t find the strikezone – he finished 2010 with an even K:BB ratio, and his HR rate was *still* terrible. It’s not often that you say that a pitcher with lots of HRs allowed and an RA over 6 got lucky, but Tillman benefitted from a low BABIP that year; this was the only thing that went right for him.
He started 2011 with the Orioles, but struggled again and was sent down a few times. He had a tantalizing boost in velocity after returning from one stint in AAA, but it didn’t last long, and the Orioles gave up after he gave up 6 runs in less than 3 innings to the punchless White Sox. At this point, Tillman was another object lesson in the high failure rate of pitching prospects, a possible waiver wire claim for some team that thought they could ‘fix’ him, or a guy who might benefit from playing in Japan or Korea for a year or two. As it was, the Orioles kept him and after a solid start to 2012 in the minors, he made his debut with the Orioles in early July against the M’s.
You probably remember what happened there – he averaged 95mph with his fastball and showed off a power cutter at 93. The curve had bite, and his change-up wasn’t bad. All told, he carved up the M’s on his way to 8 1/3 IP of shutout ball with 7 Ks and only 2 walks. Here was the Ryan Vogelsong of 2012, the guy who everyone had given up on who finally breaks through after resurrecting his early form. Made for a great story, unless you’re an M’s fan who’s still pissed off about the Bedard trade.
Unfortunately, it may not last. Tillman touched 95 in his second start, but his average dropped a bit. With every subsequent start, it’s dropped more. He hasn’t hit 95 in quite a while, and the average is back in the low-90s. Now that’s better than the 88-89 he was at for much of 2010-11, but it makes it look much less likely that he can sustain the stuff he showed against the M’s a month ago.
The M’s send out a pretty standard line-up against a right-hander like Tillman – Jaso’s back behind the plate and Mike Carp returns to the line-up at 1B. Brendan Ryan’s still out, so the lefty Kawasaki plays SS.
1: Ackley
2: Saunders (CF)
3: Montero (DH)
4: Jaso (C)
5: Seager
6: Carp
7: Wells (LF)
8: Thames (RF)
9: Kawasaki
SP: Vargas
Larry Stone notes that Tony Gwynn Jr. was DFA’d by Milwaukee today, and wonders if Zduriencik wouldn’t bring in a guy he drafted. Dave Cameron points out that there’s not a lot of room for him, particularly with Thames in the squad, but you never know. Zduriencik’s shown some loyalty to guys he drafted for the Brewers, which you can’t really fault when it produces the occasional Tom Wilhelmsen. I’m doubtful Gwynn would be a fit here, no matter who the M’s scouting director is, but I wouldn’t bet any money against it.
The Rainiers are at Cheney tonight taking on the New Orleans Zephyrs. Steve Garrison starts for Tacoma. Not the best of match-ups, prospect wise, but if you’re in the area, just look outside. AA Jackson faces the Tennessee Smokies, as the M’s top prospect Taijuan Walker goes for the Generals. He had one of his worst starts against the Smokies a few weeks back, but he’s psyched up after watching the US Women’s team’s amazing Olympic semi-final against Canada, so I think he’ll be fine tonight. Everett’s in town tonight too, so if you’re in the north end, I’d go see Mike Zunino in balmy 70s-80s temperatures.
Minor League Wrap (7/30-8/5/12)
This week featured a game that lasted twenty-three innings, a cycle, ten walks by a single hitter who didn’t even take hitter of the week honors, an instance of a helicopter being used to help dry out an outfield after a deluge the previous day, and the official release of RHP Chris Reitsma, who had been unofficially retired and on the restricted list since April of 2008. But the most fascinating thing to happen this week? Jandy Sena didn’t have to take a flight anywhere, nor did Andrew Kittredge! I never expected that to happen!
To the jump!
Read more
Game 110, Mariners at Yankees
Hisashi Iwakuma vs. Freddie Garcia, 10:05am
Iwakuma’s taken hold of his rotation spot, and is suddenly one of the more interesting stories for the M’s. The right-hander signed a one year contract, and for three months, it looked like he might head back to Japan or perhaps move to the bullpen in 2013. After a 13 strikeout game against Toronto, he’s now got 23 Ks to 7 walks in his last three starts after struggling with his command in his first few outings as a starter. He doesn’t seem to have made any major changes, though he’s throwing his slow curve a lot less and his slider a lot more. I’m still not convinced his slider’s a great pitch in isolation, but pitching is all about context – his slider has virtually identical vertical movement to his split-finger pitch, but it has the opposite horizontal movement. Not only does the slider give him a breaking ball to attack righties with (so he won’t have Delabar-esque reverse splits), but it could conceivably help his splitter by delaying the hitters’ reaction/recognition time. This isn’t some miracle pitch or anything – Derek Jeter drilled an Iwakuma slider out of Safeco leading off a couple of weeks ago, but it’s clear that something’s changed for Iwakuma, and I think his pitch mix may be part of the story.
The Yankees had their streak of 21 consecutive home games with at least one HR snapped yesterday, and Iwakuma’s not the type of pitcher who limits HRs, so the M’s are going to need to score some runs. They got to Garcia early in Seattle, but the left-handed bats should keep the pressure on and not let Garcia settle in the way they did in Seattle.
The injury to Brendan Ryan necessitates a jury-rigged line-up today with Kawasaki at short and Seager moving to 3B to accommodate Chone Figgins. That’s not ideal, but the M’s are about as lefty-heavy as they’re capable of.
Line-up:
1: Ackley (1B)
2: Saunders (CF)
3: Montero (C)
4: Jaso (DH)
5: Seager (2B)
6: Thames (RF)
7: Robinson (LF)
8: Kawasaki (SS)
9: Figgins (3B)
SP: Iwakuma
Go M’s!
Game 109, Mariners at Yankees
Happy Felix Day! Hernandez vs. Kuroda, 10:05.
2B-L Ackley
CF-L Saunders
DH-R Montero
C-L Jaso
3B-L Seager
LF-R Wells
1B-L Carp
RF-L Thames
SS-R Ryan
It’s not a huge deal, but it’s curious to have Wells in left and Thames in right. Conventional wisdom is to put the better defender in right, or especially the guy with the better arm, which in this case is Wells. However, which corner outfield position should emphasize defense can often depend on how the park you’re in plays as well. For another curious thing, Wells is hitting higher in the order than Thames, despite Thames being the guy with the platoon advantage, but that’s probably mostly Eric Wedge’s managing style of using guys conservatively when he isn’t familiar with them yet.
Game 108, Mariners at Yankees
Kevin Millwood vs. CC Sabathia, 4:05pm
The M’s take the field tonight fighting for their 8th consecutive win overall and their 7th consecutive win against a lefty starter. CC Sabathia’s not throwing 95+ fastballs anymore, but he’s still a very effective pitcher – Fangraphs credits him with 3 WAR so far in 2012 while bbref gives him 2. One slight change he’s made in recent years is that he’s throwing his slider a lot more against right-handed batters. He still throws his change-up, but he throws the slider slightly more. Against lefties, he’s got an almost Josh Kinney-esque pattern of 52% sliders to 48% fastballs. This hasn’t really changed his platoon splits in any meaningful way – while they bounce around from year to year, he’s neither vulnerable against righties nor dominant against them.
Casper Wells gets a start in CF with Mike Saunders held out due to leg stiffness. That means that Eric Thames gets a start against a tough lefty; his MLB splits aren’t all that pretty, but it’s worth noting that Thames has all of 123 plate appearances against southpaws in his career. Of course, he had huge splits in his MiLB career too, so being labeling him/using him as a platoon player isn’t something the Blue Jays did out of spite.
1: Ackley
2: Wells (CF)
3: Seager
4: Montero (DH)
5: Carp
6: Olivo (c)
7: Thames (RF)
8: Robinson (LF)
9: Ryan
SP: Millwood
Victor Sanchez takes the hill for Everett tonight as the AquaSox host Salem-Keizer – that’s pretty obviously the most noteworthy game in the system tonight. Or at least, it would be if it weren’t for the fact that the Pulaski Mariners are battling the Princeton Rays in the 23rd inning right now. The game began last night and was suspended after 18 innings. Over an hour into the game today, and still no one’s scored.
The Rainiers are in action this evening at Cheney Stadium as Hector Noesi attempts to get his ERA back under 10. Yesterday’s loss to Oklahoma City marked the first time the Rainiers skipped Danny Hultzen’s spot in the rotation, using Andrew Carraway instead.
In Jackson, Matt Fox makes his second start since his rehab ended (notable that he went to AA instead of rejoining the Rainiers; Fox did not exactly light up the PCL this season).