Game 137, Red Sox at Mariners

marc w · September 4, 2012 at 5:10 pm · Filed Under Mariners 

Blake Beavan vs. Jon Lester, 7:10pm

Puyallup native Jon Lester’s season is a microcosm for the Sox’ agonizing 2012 campaign. He came into 2012 looking to compete for a Cy Young after a somewhat disappointing 2011, just as the Red Sox attempted to put the misery of the last day of 2011 (and the departure of their manager and GM) behind them. While Lester’s FIP/xFIP have been relatively consistent, a drop in Ks and an increase in HRs have left him with an ERA that produces a below-replacement level rWAR. I’m not going to suggest that you look at the ERA and ignore the FIP, but it’s troubling that his K rate has dropped so markedly – he was over 26% for two full years, and now he’s down at 19.6%. This, coupled with a six-start run that was jaw-droppingly bad, has led to some speculation that he’s pitching hurt.

He’s quieted that talk with two brilliant outings in mid-August, but his last two starts have been a mixed bag. Lester’s K rates are down for lefties and righties, but they’ve fallen fast against right-handers. In his great 2009-2010 seasons, he fanned a roughly equal percentage of lefties and righties (around 26%), as he had a great change-up to go with his curve ball. He’s fanning less lefties, but his K rate to righties has plummeted to 18%. While a lot of attention’s focused on his cutter usage, his fastball and change aren’t working the way they once did to right-handers.

The M’s counter with Blake Beavan, who can only imagine what a 19% K% in the majors might be like, not to mention having everyone wonder if you’re OK because you’re only striking out 7 per 9.

Dave told you all about the 7 players the M’s added from the Tacoma roster, but an 8th Rainier will be at the game tonight too – Catcher Guillermo Quiroz was traded to Boston and will presumably be in uniform for tonight’s game. The M’s appeared to like his pitch-calling, but there was obviously no space for him on an M’s team that’s already carrying three catchers.

The line-up is about as righty-heavy as it could be, save for swapping Liddi in for Seager. The good side is that Casper Wells gets the start in his first game back from AAA, and the down side is that Olivo catches. In this game, against this pitcher, I think you could make a case that starting Olivo isn’t the worst move, but life’s too short to debate things like that for long given that neither of these teams is going anywhere this year. The Red Sox are going nowhere this year. That’s amazing, and the source of rich, nourishing schadenfreude.

1: Ackley
2: Gutierrez
3: Seager
4: Montero (DH)
5: Smoak
6: Olivo (C)
7: Robinson
8: Wells
9: Ryan
SP: Beavan

Victor Sanchez pitches for Everett tonight in the Northwest League playoffs. If you’re in the north end, or if you want to see an interesting young pitcher, go see the AquaSox game tonight.

Comments

100 Responses to “Game 137, Red Sox at Mariners”

  1. Westside guy on September 4th, 2012 9:08 pm

    Okay, now it’s a double-Beavan.

  2. Breadbaker on September 4th, 2012 9:08 pm

    Definitely early season classic Beavan.

  3. californiamariner on September 4th, 2012 9:10 pm

    He’s so Beavan

  4. stevemotivateir on September 4th, 2012 9:15 pm

    This is what happens to pitchers who have issues missing bats.

  5. Westside guy on September 4th, 2012 9:17 pm

    New shows to be pitched for the coming season…

    That’s So Beavan (Disney Channel)

    Leave It To Beavan (ABC Family)

    oh oh

    Beavan and Butthead (Comedy Central)

  6. Westside guy on September 4th, 2012 9:29 pm

    It’ll be interesting to see what the Mariners do with Capps next year. Will they put him back in AAA for a while, or will they use him in the bullpen with the big club right away?

  7. stevemotivateir on September 4th, 2012 9:31 pm

    Or will they package him for a slugger?

  8. Westside guy on September 4th, 2012 9:33 pm

    True – they do have a lot of young arms available.

  9. stevemotivateir on September 4th, 2012 9:36 pm

    I wouldn’t be surprised at all if we saw Capps and Paxton as part of a deal for a bat.

  10. Westside guy on September 4th, 2012 9:36 pm

    I really don’t think giving drivers the ability to buy movie tickets from their dash is a good idea.

    (commercial that just played)

  11. Westside guy on September 4th, 2012 9:39 pm

    Ackley, also taking advantage of the not-Angels in the outfield!

  12. Westside guy on September 4th, 2012 9:44 pm

    Come on Jesus!

  13. stevemotivateir on September 4th, 2012 9:45 pm

    Nice job by both Ackley and Seager.

  14. stevemotivateir on September 4th, 2012 9:51 pm

    Way to strand the runners.

  15. californiamariner on September 4th, 2012 9:52 pm

    Westside guy,
    Law and Order: Special Beavan Unit

    Breaking Beavan

    So You Think You Can Beavan.

    I know the original shows don’t sound anything like Beavan like yours did, but when you put the meaning of “Beavan” in there its funny. At least to me lol.

  16. jephdood on September 4th, 2012 9:53 pm

    Soooo… who’s gonna be our 1B next year? Cuz Smoak sure as hell ain’t it.

  17. californiamariner on September 4th, 2012 9:56 pm

    Amen to no more Smoak!

  18. vetted_coach on September 4th, 2012 9:57 pm

    Anyone who can explain why Justin Smoak hits 5th should apply immediately to replace Mike Blowers as Mr. Muppet on the broadcast crew. Shame on any analyst who sits silently by, watching Thames’ totally bush effort at a bunt. Earn your money, Blow!

  19. msfanmike on September 4th, 2012 9:58 pm

    Smoak is awesome.

  20. Westside guy on September 4th, 2012 9:58 pm

    Hehe CM…

    “Breaking Beavan” was pretty good actually.

  21. californiamariner on September 4th, 2012 9:59 pm

    “Anyone who can explain why Justin Smoak hits 5th should apply immediately to replace Mike Blowers ”

    Are you saying Smoak deserves to hit 5th? I’m confused.

  22. Westside guy on September 4th, 2012 10:00 pm

    Oh yeah, Mike Carp – the third member of the Tight Groin Trio.

  23. msfanmike on September 4th, 2012 10:04 pm

    I would have rather seen Carp, Jiminez or Jaso hit in the high leverage situation. Either Liddi if Boston had countered with a LHP. Smoak has been given enough rope to hang multiple busted prospects.

    Shut. Smoak. Down.

  24. msfanmike on September 4th, 2012 10:04 pm

    I would have rather seen Carp, Jiminez or Jaso hit in the high leverage situation. Either Liddi if Boston had countered with a LHP. Smoak has been given enough rope to hang multiple busted prospects.

    Shut. Smoak. Down.

  25. Breadbaker on September 4th, 2012 10:09 pm

    That was pathetic.

  26. Westside guy on September 4th, 2012 10:09 pm

    Okay, the outfield for the ninth inning just got interesting.

    And by interesting I mean really bad.

  27. Westside guy on September 4th, 2012 10:12 pm

    Why let Smoak hit, but then sub in Carp for Wells?

  28. Jordan on September 4th, 2012 10:13 pm

    I love that Carp hits for Wells but not Smoak. I wish I could know what Wedge was ‘thinking.’ I don’t think it matters much how the off season plays out if Wedge is still in the dugout to handle player evaluations and fill out the lineup cards.

  29. Westside guy on September 4th, 2012 10:14 pm

    Plus Carp is recovering from a tight groin, AND they claimed they were going to protect his shoulder and not put him in the outfield again this year.

    So unless they do another substitution, this just just bizarre on several levels.

    Oh, okay – I still don’t get letting Smoak bat, but they did run Figgy out there instead of Carp. So *slightly* less bizarre than I thought. But still…

  30. msfanmike on September 4th, 2012 10:18 pm

    It makes no sense, Westy/Jordan. Wedge is outdoing himself tonight.

  31. jordan on September 4th, 2012 10:19 pm

    It kills me that these managers are still bunting in these situations. Just giving up easy outs.

  32. Westside guy on September 4th, 2012 10:20 pm

    Maybe Wedge is trying to impress Bobby Valentine.

  33. jordan on September 4th, 2012 10:22 pm

    I’m not sure how accurate the movie moneyball is but maybe Z needs to go Billy Beane on Wedges ass.

  34. msfanmike on September 4th, 2012 10:25 pm

    Z should copy Beane in more ways than one.

  35. Westside guy on September 4th, 2012 10:26 pm

    Is there a rule that says the catcher has to be right behind the plate when the pitcher releases the ball? I’m wondering why, when they’re intentionally walking someone, the catcher always starts behind the plate and dashes out there rather than just standing out there in the first place.

    They’re certainly not trying to deceive anyone.

  36. Jordan on September 4th, 2012 10:29 pm

    Jimenez gets lessons from Smoak.

  37. californiamariner on September 4th, 2012 10:30 pm

    Lets see some 9th inning magic!

  38. msfanmike on September 4th, 2012 10:33 pm

    There is such a thing as the “catchers box” and a catcher can be called for a balk if he leaves it prior to the pitcher releasing the ball.

    They leave the “box” early all the time and it is never called, but there is a reason why they do what they do. Since you asked.

  39. Westside guy on September 4th, 2012 10:34 pm

    THAMES!

  40. Westside guy on September 4th, 2012 10:35 pm

    Thanks Mike – I didn’t know the catcher could balk!

  41. Westside guy on September 4th, 2012 10:36 pm

    Crappy “lefty strike zone”.

  42. Westside guy on September 4th, 2012 10:37 pm

    Crap.

  43. jephdood on September 4th, 2012 10:38 pm

    That umpire has shit in his eyes.

  44. msfanmike on September 4th, 2012 10:40 pm

    This game had a definite 2011 feel to it.

    Tomorrow is another day.

  45. jephdood on September 4th, 2012 10:44 pm

    Can’t wait for the poser a-hole bandwagon SAWX fans to get the hell out of our ballpark. Sounds like the M’s are playing at Fenway West and I DO. NOT. LIKE.

  46. Westside guy on September 4th, 2012 10:47 pm

    You don’t like the Faux-Sox fans, jephdood?

  47. msfanmike on September 4th, 2012 10:49 pm

    It’s actually the pitcher that gets charged with the “balk” for throwing a pitch when the catcher is out of the box, but it is known as a “catchers balk”.

    It’s so obscure that the catchers box chalk outline isn’t put out onto the field. Occasionally you might see the box lined in chalk for a high school game. Nobody knows what the hell it is, but it will pop into view every now and then.

  48. jordan on September 5th, 2012 2:21 pm

    Wow, I’ve played baseball my whole life up through high school and watched and followed it closely and I never knew anything about the catchers box. Interesting.

  49. Westside guy on September 5th, 2012 2:26 pm

    Yeah, after Mike talked about it I went and browsed through the official rules. They’re very specific about the catcher’s box and the catcher having to be in there – it’s funny how it never gets talked about! We hear about the batter’s box all the time…

  50. msfanmike on September 5th, 2012 2:41 pm

    The catchers box is impossibly narrow. Probably why it has been “unofficially” eliminated from consciousness.

    It is the width of the inside edge of each batters box – extending straight back. A lot of catchers set up outside of it – when trying to get their pitcher to miss ‘away.’

    If someone ever calls a catchers balk, I would be stunned … but it is a thing.

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