Game 143, Mariners at Blue Jays
Millwood vs Romero, 4:05 pm.
The last time the M’s faced Ricky Romero, Wedge rolled out a lefty heavy line-up, because Romero’s the odd LHP with a significant reverse platoon split; it was perhaps the most forward thinking thing Wedge has done all year. Romero actually pitched decently that night, though, so he’s scaling back a bit tonight, starting Olivo behind the plate and Robinson over Thames, which moves Saunders to RF for the night. He’s still starting the three regular left-handed everyday guys and Carp at first base, so it’s not totally abandoning the left-on-left match-up that Romero is so bad at, but it would have been nice to see Jaso in the line-up again.
Ackley, 2B
Gutierrez, CF
Seager, 3B
Montero, DH
Saunders, CF
Olivo, C
Carp, 1B
Robinson, LF
Ryan, SS
A Couple of Quick Notes on Free Agency
Yesterday, I published a piece over at FanGraphs that looked at the relationship in 2012 between opening day payroll and team winning percentage. This year, it’s at its lowest levels since the days of collusion, there is more parity in baseball this year (related to team salary, at least) than there has been in 20+ years. There are more teams currently in playoff position in the bottom half of team payroll than in the top half. The top five teams in winning percentage all rank outside the top five in opening day spending, and only one of the top five by winning percentage even ranks in the top 15 of spending.
So, yeah. This isn’t a normal year, and this probably isn’t the start of any kind of trend, but the data is pretty clear – you simply cannot make a judgment about a team’s ability to contend by looking at how much money they spend on their roster. The ROI on additional spending above league average this year was next to nothing. In general, teams that attempted to contend through lavish free agent spending fell on their faces, and teams that made smart investments on undervalued players are doing very well. The lesson, as always – there’s a right way and a wrong way to build a baseball team. Throwing a lot of money at the biggest names in free agency is the wrong way. Anyone who tells you differently is simply ignoring the facts.
But, of course, that doesn’t mean that teams shouldn’t spend money in free agency. They just need to spend it on the right players. Last year, I advocated for trading for Joey Votto, or if that wasn’t possible, signing guys like Edwin Jackson and trading for a guy like Angel Pagan. The Reds, Nationals, and Giants have reaped the rewards of making those smart moves this year. The team has room in the budget to make some upgrades this winter, and they should absolutely use it. The main question is always “who should they spend it on?”
I’ll be rolling out my usual Off-Season Plan post here in a few weeks, but if you’re interested in perusing the various options, we’ve also created a pretty great tool for you to use – the 2012 Free Agent Custom Leaderboard. From this page, you can filter and sort to your hearts content, looking at all the various options that will likely be available for purchase this winter, and because it’s a sweet FanGraphs Custom Leaderboard, you can filter by age, ranges of years, position, for certain minimum performances, or pretty much anything else you want to do.
When you click through that link, one thing will probably stand out immediately – there is an absurdly deep crop of available outfielders this winter. Of the top 13 position players in 2012 WAR set to hit the market, 10 of them are OFs. Teams looking for a CF can pick between Michael Bourn, B.J. Upton, Angel Pagan, or Shane Victorino, or teams more looking for a bat in the outfield can aim for Josh Hamilton, Nick Swisher, Melky Cabrera, Jonny Gomes, Ryan Ludwick, Cody Ross, or Torii Hunter. And this doesn’t even include potential trade targets such as Justin Upton, Shin-Soo Choo, or Jacoby Ellsbury.
Put simply, this is the deepest group of available outfielders we’ve seen in years, and the idea that this is a bad market to be a buyer doesn’t apply to teams looking for help in the outfield. You know, like the Mariners. In fact, given their organizational weaknesses and the types of players available, this is perhaps the best kind of free agent market the Mariners could hope for. They’ll have a ton of options available to pursue, many of whom should come at reasonable prices, and won’t have the kind of leverage to be able to say they don’t want to play in Seattle. The Mariners need at least one outfielder, and this free agent class is overflowing with outfielders, several of whom would be great fits for the team.
Don’t buy into this notion that the Mariners missed their opportunity to spend when Prince Fielder went to Detroit. There are better options available this winter, and the team has a great opportunity to be rewarded for their patience. With some smart off-season maneuvering, there’s no reason that the team can’t get a larger upgrade by spending a fraction of the money this winter than they would have gotten from throwing a huge sum of money at Fielder last winter.
Game 142, Mariners at Blue Jays
Ramirez vs Morrow, 4:05 pm.
Erasmo Ramirez makes his first start since late June. The plan is apparently to have him get a few more starts before the end of the season, but the team isn’t going with a strict rotation of pitchers, so it’s hard to know when those will be. My guess is that a good outing tonight probably makes it more likely that Ramirez pitches again sooner rather than later.
Ackley, 2B
Gutierrez, CF
Seager, 3B
Jaso, DH
Montero, C
Saunders, LF
Thames, RF
Carp, 1B
Ryan, SS
Let’s Talk About Mike Zunino
When the Mariners drafted Mike Zunino back in June, it was considered to be the right pick mostly because it was the safe pick. Zunino was touted as a high floor prospect with minimal risks – he projected as a legitimate catcher with some power, and his work ethic suggested he might be able to get to the Majors pretty quickly. There were questions about his offensive upside, though. Would he hit for average? Was the power going to be more than just good for the position? The lack of any one prominent tool kept scouts from being too effusive in their praise, and so he ended up being cast as a good, safe, low-risk selection.
Then he signed his pro contract and was assigned to Everett, where he showed himself to be the best hitter in the Northwest League by a mile, posting a ridiculous 235 wRC+ in his time there. But, it was short season ball for a guy who had three years of SEC experience, and Everett’s a pretty nice place to hit, and his overall line was inflated by a .413 BABIP, and it was just 133 plate appearances. It was a great performance, but there were enough caveats there to keep the enthusiasm in check.
Then, the Mariners promoted him to Double-A Jackson to finish the season. Including the first four games of the playoffs, he’s put up a 204 wRC+ in 75 trips to the plate – the only other player to hit better in the Southern League this year was a 24-year-old outfielder who was repeating the level, and needed a .471 BABIP to do it. Now, it’s getting harder to come up with caveats. At 21-years-old, he’s actually younger than most of his competition at this level, and very few college players can go straight to Double-A and dominate within months of being drafted. Jackson’s not a huge hitter’s park. His BABIP has mostly normalized, and now sits at a not-totally-crazy .336. Compared to his Everett numbers, his strikeout rate is actually down and his power is up, meaning that while the wRC+ might not be quite as high, he’s probably hit better in Jackson than he did in Everett.
There’s still the sample size issue, as Zunino’s professional career still spans just 200 plate appearances, but there’s some evidence now to suggest that Zunino was just underrated in the draft. And with every passing day where he destroys quality pitching in Double-A, the talk about whether Zunino could actually break camp with the Mariners next year gets a little bit louder.
That’s still a longshot at best. For one, the Mariners don’t really need to rush Zunino, given that John Jaso has shown enough this year to justify a larger role in 2013, and the team could use the start of next year to evaluate whether Jaso can be the everyday catcher against right-handed pitching. If he can, that’s a pretty nice asset to have, even with Zunino is breathing down his neck. This isn’t a scenario where the Mariners have a huge gaping hole that needs to be patched. Jaso has earned an extended look behind the plate, and gathering more information about his abilities as a regular catcher is in the organization’s best interests.
Beyond that, there’s also the fact that putting Zunino on the opening day roster next spring would essentially be unprecedented. If we give Zunino credit for approximately 100 plate appearances in the Arizona Fall League, he’ll go into next spring with about 300 professional PAs under his belt. For reference, Buster Posey, Matt Wieters, and Yasmani Grandal — the three best college catching prospects to come out of the draft in recent years — all got ~700 minor league plate appearances before they were called up.
To find a catcher who was drafted out of college and got to the Majors with essentially a half season of pro experience, you have to go back to Thurman Munson in 1969. The Yankees took him with the fourth overall pick out of Kent State in 1968, then had him finish the season in Double-A, where he was the league’s best hitter. Due to military commitments related to the Vietnam War, he only got 115 plate appearances in Triple-A during the first four month of the season before the Yankees called him up in August. He played sparingly and eventually was sent back down to rejoin Triple-A Syracuse for their playoff run and didn’t grab a regular job with New York until 1970, when he posted a +5.4 WAR season and was the Rookie of the Year.
In terms of pro experience, Munson didn’t have much more than Zunino will have next spring when he was named the Yankees starting catcher, but we’re talking one example from 40 years ago, and Munson didn’t even grab the job the spring after getting drafted. Guys just don’t go from catching in the College World Series one summer to starting in the big leagues the next spring.
In reality, it makes sense for Zunino to begin the 2013 season in Tacoma. The organization can give him more time to develop, let him face another level of advanced pitching, delay his free agency by a year, and give John Jaso a real shot to show what he can do as a regular catcher simply by not pushing Zunino in a historically unique way. If he destroys the PCL for the first few months of 2013, then the team can start to make plans to open up the catching job for him. Besides, as we saw with Danny Hultzen this year, a high draft position and supposed polish from playing college ball doesn’t mean that a guy has nothing to learn in Triple-A. A few months in Tacoma for Zunino is in everyone’s best interests.
But, the reality is that Zunino has forced himself into the team’s 2013 plans. Rather than spending money on a better Miguel Olivo replacement to share time with Jaso behind the plate, the team is probably better off getting a more traditional back-up catcher who can be easily discarded if Zunino forces his way onto the roster by next summer. Zunino’s ascent has basically ended any need to continue with the “Jesus Montero is a catcher” charade, and the club can move forward with him as either a first baseman or designated hitter next year. And, while Montero, Dustin Ackley, and Justin Smoak are reminders that prospect status and offensive performance in the minors doesn’t always translate to immediate big league success, the bar for quality offense from a catcher isn’t all that high, and Zunino’s overall package of skills suggests that he’s probably going to be a pretty good Major League player pretty soon.
Zunino is worth getting excited about. If I had to bet, I would put money on him taking the team’s starting catching job at some point next year, and being an above average Major League catcher by 2014. For me, Zunino is the organization’s best prospect, a better blend of risk and reward than any of the pitching prospects and easily projecting as the best position player on the farm. He’s a better prospect than Justin Smoak ever was, and he’s destroying anything Dustin Ackley ever did in the minors. It’s still early, and more exposure to higher level pitching could shine a spotlight on issues we’re not currently aware of, but it’s hard to find too many flaws with Zunino right now. The defensive skills to stay behind the plate are there. The work ethic is there. The power is there. The plate discipline and contact skills appear to be better than advertised.
Don’t count on Mike Zunino breaking camp with the Mariners next spring. That’s likely too aggressive, and the organization doesn’t have to push him. But given what he’s done in Everett and is doing in Jackson, don’t be surprised if Zunino turns out to be better than that high floor/moderate ceiling “safe pick” we were told the team was getting back in June. Right now, Zunino looks like a potential star in the making.
Game 139, Athletics at Mariners
King Felix vs. AJ Griffin, 7:10pm
The A’s arrive at a crucial time in their season, as their out-of-nowhere playoff chances ha been weakened recently by a three-game sweep by the Angels and the loss (due to a horrific injury) of their best starting pitcher*. According to Baseball Prospectus’ playoff odds report, their playoff chances have dropped over 15% in the past week, and have dropped below 50%. Things aren’t quite as dire at CoolStandings, but the combination of the Rangers righting their ship and Orioles doing whatever it is that the Orioles are doing means first that the A’s don’t have much of a shot at the division and second that the Wild Card race is going to be tough. They’ve got a tough schedule to play the rest of the way, and their wild-card rivals have advantages like “playing in the AL Central” or “money” or both. But the A’s remain, somehow, in a good position. How’d they get to this point?
In a recent interview, A’s Assistant GM David Forst talked about his club’s 2012 season as being a “perfect storm.” This makes those of us who saw them as a near-certain last-place team feel better, but it’s quite remarkable the degree to which the A’s have had a signature success to point to from basically every segment of the enterprise. The trades of Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill signalled a rebuild, but their pro scouting department was able to find good value in players like Tommy Milone and Jarrod Parker. A trade that received a bit less attention – closer Andrew Bailey and 4th OF Ryan Sweeney for Josh Reddick and prospects – may have been the most important. An offense that looked to require a career year from Coco Crisp to avoid 2010 Mariners-level impotence now has a guy who’s put up 4.2 WAR and is closing in on 30 HRs. To back that up, the amateur scouting department came out of nowhere to give Cuban Yoenis Cespedes an unthinkable-for-the-A’s amount of money, and have watched as the OF has put up a .280/.348/.491 line in a tough place to hit. The A’s offense is by no means good, but without these two guys – both of whom weren’t on the payroll in early 2012 – the A’s really may have been as bad as recent M’s offenses. Finally, a player development system (that has watched Chris Carter, Michael Taylor, Landon Powell, Josh Donaldson, Adrian Cardenas, Michael Choice, Grant Green and more stall out) helped bring two unknown, late-round draft picks to the major leagues: Dan Straily and tonight’s starter, AJ Griffin.
Griffin was drafted in the 13th round of the 2010 draft, out of the University of San Diego. He signed quickly enough to get several appearances that year in the low-minors as a reliever. Moved to the rotation in 2011, he laid waste to multiple levels before tiring in AA. This year, the Texas League proved to be no challenge, and after ten good starts in AAA, he was up with the A’s, where he now stands with a 4-0 record and a gaudy RA. If it wasn’t for Dan Straily’s story – a 24th rounder who led the minors in strikeouts before moving up to Oakland – Griffin may be the best “who is that?” prospect story of the year.
So did he gain velocity in pro ball? Does he throw 95 with movement? Well, no. Like Tigers prospect Drew Smyly, Griffin gets the most out of a slightly overhand delivery that gives his 89-91mph fastball a lot of vertical movement. His FB simply doesn’t drop the way others do, and hitters seem to have had problems with that, and so like a lot of similar pitchers, from Smyly this year to Josh Collmenter last year, Griffin’s transition to the majors has been pretty smooth. He also has a slider/cutter/slutter pitch that he throws to righties, a change-up that he reserves almost exclusively for lefties, and a big, slow curve-ball that he uses as a put-away pitch when he’s ahead. He gets a good number of grounders with his breaking/offspeed stuff, but his fastball’s a fly-ball pitch. On the other hand, it also generates an above-average number of pop-ups. Watching him face Brendan Ryan might be a bit frustrating.
The combination of his fastball and what I can only guess is a very good change-up is his interesting platoon splits. So far in the majors, lefties have only a .209 wOBA against him, compared to righties .237 (his BABIP so far has been absurdly low). The sample’s small, of course, but it essentially matches what he did in AAA – he dominated lefties and battled righties to a draw. In fairness, his splits were more traditional in 2011, but his career numbers are still slightly better against lefties. If there was one pitcher where you wouldn’t use a strict platoon approach when facing, that would be Scott Feldman. But if you had a SECOND choice, it might be Griffin. Don’t be afraid to use Casper Wells, M’s!
Felix may have extra motivation after his last, frustrating inning against the Angels. He’s familiar with the A’s, and he’s in his home park, so here’s hoping for a return to royal form. The line-up behind him includes Luis Jimenez, who’s making his first MLB start after 13 years in everything from the affiliated minors, to Japan, to a semi-pro league near his home town. Congratulations, Luis.
1: Ackley
2: Gutierrez
3: Seager
4: Jaso (C)
5: Saunders
6: Smoak
7: Thames
8: Jimenez (DH)
9: Ryan
SP: King Felix
That’s a pretty lefty-heavy line-up right there, though it’s good to see Gutierrez back in the line-up for however long he’s able to go.
*: Get well soon, Brandon McCarthy – the funniest athlete on twitter, and one of the most engaging, thoughtful and insightful pitchers in baseball.
Too Much of the Same Thing
Not counting Carlos Peguero — because, actual presence on the roster or not, he’s not a Major League player — the Mariners currently have five outfielders on their big league roster: Michael Saunders, Franklin Gutierrez, Casper Wells, Trayvon Robinson, and Eric Thames. On one hand, it’s a balanced bunch, as there’s two left-handed hitters, two right-handed hitters, and a switch-hitter. On the other hand, there’s not much balance at all, because the team has only two types of players in the OF, just with multiple versions of each.
Here’s the 2010-2012 core stats for the five active outfielders on the roster.
| Name | PA | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casper Wells | 599 | 7% | 27% | 0.188 | 0.307 |
| Eric Thames | 658 | 6% | 24% | 0.180 | 0.312 |
| Michael Saunders | 965 | 8% | 26% | 0.145 | 0.271 |
| Trayvon Robinson | 272 | 7% | 32% | 0.121 | 0.327 |
| Franklin Gutierrez | 1053 | 7% | 20% | 0.100 | 0.287 |
Wells, Thames, and Saunders are all basically the same type of hitter – low contact guys who don’t many walks and thus need to hit for significant power to justify their spot in the line-up. They’re always going to be low-OBP players because of their approach at the plate and their problems putting the bat on the ball. Saunders and Wells are better versions of this player type because they can hold down center field and play all three OF spots, while Thames lack of range and moderate offensive abilities make him more of a bench guy.
Then, on the other end of the offensive spectrum, you have Gutierrez and Robinson, who have to compensate for their lack of power by doing other things. Guti obviously plays incredible defense, so he’s got value on those rare days when he can actually stay on the field. Robinson is essentially Guti without defense and with even worse contact rates, which is why I don’t buy him as a Major League player. He doesn’t hit well enough to be a starter and he can only play left field because of his absurdly weak arm, so he doesn’t really fit in as a fourth outfielder either. While I get that he’s the flavor of the week, he’s also the worst player of the bunch, and not someone that should be in the organization’s future plans.
Realistically, the only one of these guys you can look at as an everyday guy going forward is Saunders, and even he’s a bit of a fringe starter. Wells and Thames are both decent enough platoon options, and you could probably get away with platooning them in right field next year if you had center and left locked up with players you could count on, but the Mariners don’t have that. Gutierrez remains a complete wild card, as they simply cannot count on him being able to play on any given day. From a talent standpoint, he’s still the team’s best OF, but from a health standpoint, he’s simply too unreliable to depend on. So, if you build out a roster that includes Gutierrez as one of your OFs, you need to have three other capable starting OFs around him. And, if you’re already carrying Saunders, Thames, and Wells, you only have two spots covered despite taking up three roster spots.
So, in reality, the Mariners are either going to have to carry five full-time outfielders next year, or they’re going to have dispense with one of the job-sharing situations and bring in a full-time player who can play everyday. If, for instance, the team brought in a full time corner outfielder, a three-way rotation of Saunders, Gutierrez, and Wells sharing two jobs is workable, as long as the organization can convince Eric Wedge to stop benching Wells every time he goes into a slump anyway.
And, really, it’d be nice if the new guy wasn’t cut from these same two cloths that the organization has been trying to carve an outfield out of. The team has run through a ton of low contact guys in the last few years, and hopefully by now is realizing that these kinds of players have too many flaws to be everyday starters. Likewise, if you’re going to get a low-power outfielder, he better either be able to play really good defense at all three outfield spots and be durable enough to play everyday.
Right now, the Mariners have five outfielders, three of whom are best utilized as role players and one of whom probably doesn’t even have the skills to pull that off. That kind of roster construction isn’t going to work next year. If you’re penciling Michael Saunders into one job — no matter what spot it is, really — and Franklin Gutierrez in for a roster spot in some form, then the only way to put together a good outfield in 2013 is to bring in a full-time, everyday, guy who can play all nine innings no matter who the other pitcher is.
That means that the organization is going to have to make some calls on these guys this winter. With any luck, someone else will want to hope Trayvon Robinson either finds some power or is interested in using him to test out a new bionic arm replacement, and they can ship him off for something useful, as he doesn’t really fit into any kind of need the team has for 2013. The remaining four could fit on the roster as long as the team acquired another full-time outfielder to hold down one spot and Thames was also utilized as a reserve 1B/DH type, allowing him to provide a little more depth than simply serving as another part-time OF.
Right now, though, the pieces don’t fit. Guti’s contract and talent make it worth giving him one more chance to try and stay healthy, but you can’t go into 2013 with Saunders in one spot, Guti in another, and then Thames/Wells/Robinson fighting over one the remaining spot. There’s just not a productive enough player in the group to make that work, and the team would be surrendering too much value in giving three roster spots to guys who come with so much risk.
There’s going to be a lot of focus on the M’s getting “a big bat” this winter. In reality, their biggest need is actually just for one good everyday outfielder. If they can find a +3 win OF who can play 150+ games next year, that will free the team up to take risks on Saunders and Gutierrez. Without that guy, though, this current group of outfielders just doesn’t work.
Game 138, Red Sox at Mariners
Kevin Millwood vs. Aaron Cook, 7:10pm
This is not a match-up anyone’s marked their calendar to watch. Millwood’s been a steady presence in the rotation, and his results have been mediocre to good- he’s already over 2 WAR using FIP, and even going by RA/9, he’s at about 1 win, which isn’t bad for a cheap #5 starter. But given his lack of a future with the club and his so-so stuff, he’s not a guy who commands attention.
Aaron Cook’s stuff is worse, and since shutting out the M’s on 2 hits in late June, he’s thrown 54 sub-replacement level innings for the Red Sox, with an RA near 7, and 11 walks and 9 HRs against 9 Ks. He was a great story for everyone but M’s fans in July; from his recall on 6/24 through 7/21 (selective endpoints alert!), he threw 33 1/3 bizarrely effective innings, including a K rate that often threatened to go negative. He struck out a grand total of 3 batters in that stretch, with 2 of them coming in the shutout in Safeco. Dave tweeted this last night about Blake Beavan, but it’s even more true of Cook: “Pitch to contact always sounds like such a good plan until you see what contact can look like.” Remember that Aaron Cook’s K rate is *one-third of Beavan’s.*
I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Aaron Cook commands a modicum of attention at this point. It was a little over one year ago that I wrote this about Anthony Vasquez, and how he had the opportunity to finish a season with more HRs allowed than strikeouts. As it turned out, he ended the year with 13 of each – saving him from becoming the first Mariner since Glenn Abbott and the first pitcher with more HRs than Ks with a minimum of 10 HRs allowed since the early 1930s. Part of this was clearly just the tiny sample – perhaps because of his extreme gopheritis, Vasquez didn’t get 30 innings with the M’s in 2011. So imagine my surprise that in the very next season , Aaron Cook is making a serious run at history here. The way he’s gotten to this point is completely different to Vasquez; he’s been far stingier with the HR, but his absurd – literally, there’s no other response to a K% under 4% than laughter – K rate means his strikeouts and HRs are just about even. What’s more, he’s allowed 12 walks, which means he’s got a shot at ending a year with something like 80 innings pitched in which he gives up more HRs AND WALKS than strikeouts. This is remarkable. Cook’s monomaniacal approach makes up in fascination what it lacks in artistry or beauty.
Today’s line-up features only one of the two M’s to strike out against Cook in June: Jesus Montero. Of course, Montero’s been a far better hitter since the break, so here’s hoping he gets the HR to bring Cook’s HRs/Ks into equilibrium. For reference, Chone Figgins was the other Mariner batter to K against Cook, which is about as perfect a summation of Figgins’ 2012 season as you can get.
1: Ackley
2: Robinson
3: Seager
4: Jaso (C)
5: Montero (DH)
6: Thames
7: Carp
8: Wells
9: Ryan
SP: Kevin Millwood
In the minors, Victor Sanchez got roughed up last night, and the Aquasox are a game away from elimination.
Brandon Maurer was named the Southern League’s most outstanding pitcher of 2012, which is amazing given his competition included James Paxton, Danny Hultzen, Trevor Bauer, Tyler Skaggs, Taijuan Walker and even some pitchers who didn’t play for Jackson or Mobile. The former 23rd-round pick went 9-2 with a FIP just over 3. Paxton and Walker were close in innings-pitched, but Walker ended the regular season with a FIP over 4, and Paxton’s was a bit higher than Maurer’s as well.
The SL playoffs start tomorrow, and as of right now, the rotation will go Paxton, Gilheeney, Walker, Fernandez, Garrison. Bold move, Jackson: so overconfident that you don’t even give the most outstanding pitcher a start in the playoff series? I hope Maurer can slot in for someone during the series, but that’s the rotation the Generals have announced.
Clinton begins their playoff series in the Midwest League this evening, where they host the Beloit Snappers. Right-hander Robert Shore starts tonight against uberprospect Miguel Sano and Beloit.
On the other end of the spectrum, Danny Hultzen ended his season on a sour note, with another 5 walks against Fresno back on Monday. In his last three starts of the year, Hultzen went 7 1/3 innings, and gave up 12 runs on 10 hits and a ghastly 14 walks. 14! In all, he walked 43 batters in his 48 2/3 AAA innings, which produced a FIP of 4.29 despite a good strikeout rate. He was probably the most confounding prospect I’ve seen. He clearly had stretches of his AA self – great command, very good change-up, better than average velocity – but they were punctuated with total lapses in control. This was not a case of a guy missing his spots, or giving up one walk most innings. He either set down the side with ease, or he walked three in a row. The suddenness of these lapses, and the suddenness with which they disappeared, was like nothing I’ve seen. I’m no scout, but I couldn’t discern anything in his mechanics that would explain it. There was some chatter in late August that he might get called up to make a start or two with the M’s this month, and as a result, the M’s started increasing his pitch counts after dropping them in late July. And then, with a lot of the M’s brass watching (including Tom McNamara, who’s hopefully identified a mechanical flaw or two), he walked four and gave up four runs in 2/3 of an inning against Las Vegas. Thus, the feel-good story is Luis Jimenez and not how the M’s #2 draft pick ‘solved’ his issues and made his MLB debut.
Game 137, Red Sox at Mariners
Blake Beavan vs. Jon Lester, 7:10pm
Puyallup native Jon Lester’s season is a microcosm for the Sox’ agonizing 2012 campaign. He came into 2012 looking to compete for a Cy Young after a somewhat disappointing 2011, just as the Red Sox attempted to put the misery of the last day of 2011 (and the departure of their manager and GM) behind them. While Lester’s FIP/xFIP have been relatively consistent, a drop in Ks and an increase in HRs have left him with an ERA that produces a below-replacement level rWAR. I’m not going to suggest that you look at the ERA and ignore the FIP, but it’s troubling that his K rate has dropped so markedly – he was over 26% for two full years, and now he’s down at 19.6%. This, coupled with a six-start run that was jaw-droppingly bad, has led to some speculation that he’s pitching hurt.
He’s quieted that talk with two brilliant outings in mid-August, but his last two starts have been a mixed bag. Lester’s K rates are down for lefties and righties, but they’ve fallen fast against right-handers. In his great 2009-2010 seasons, he fanned a roughly equal percentage of lefties and righties (around 26%), as he had a great change-up to go with his curve ball. He’s fanning less lefties, but his K rate to righties has plummeted to 18%. While a lot of attention’s focused on his cutter usage, his fastball and change aren’t working the way they once did to right-handers.
The M’s counter with Blake Beavan, who can only imagine what a 19% K% in the majors might be like, not to mention having everyone wonder if you’re OK because you’re only striking out 7 per 9.
Dave told you all about the 7 players the M’s added from the Tacoma roster, but an 8th Rainier will be at the game tonight too – Catcher Guillermo Quiroz was traded to Boston and will presumably be in uniform for tonight’s game. The M’s appeared to like his pitch-calling, but there was obviously no space for him on an M’s team that’s already carrying three catchers.
The line-up is about as righty-heavy as it could be, save for swapping Liddi in for Seager. The good side is that Casper Wells gets the start in his first game back from AAA, and the down side is that Olivo catches. In this game, against this pitcher, I think you could make a case that starting Olivo isn’t the worst move, but life’s too short to debate things like that for long given that neither of these teams is going anywhere this year. The Red Sox are going nowhere this year. That’s amazing, and the source of rich, nourishing schadenfreude.
1: Ackley
2: Gutierrez
3: Seager
4: Montero (DH)
5: Smoak
6: Olivo (C)
7: Robinson
8: Wells
9: Ryan
SP: Beavan
Victor Sanchez pitches for Everett tonight in the Northwest League playoffs. If you’re in the north end, or if you want to see an interesting young pitcher, go see the AquaSox game tonight.
M’s Add Seven More From Tacoma
The Mariners completed their September call-ups today, adding seven more guys to the roster, including a couple of surprises. There were four that were obvious, as they were all up with the big team for significant stretches earlier in the year: Mike Carp, Casper Wells, Shawn Kelley, and Alex Liddi. Hector Noesi was slightly less obvious, since he wasn’t very good down in Tacoma after they optioned him, but he does give them another arm to serve as a long man in case of a blowout or extra inning game, so even if he doesn’t pitch much, bringing him back makes some sense.
The two surprises are Carlos Triunfel, who had another lousy year and has lost most of his prospect status at this point, and Luis Jimenez, who is 30-years-old and never really had any to begin with.
Triunfel has some natural talent but hasn’t improved one bit in the last five years, leaving him as a guy who gets significantly less from his tools than he should. I guess with Munenori Kawasaki as the only backup SS on the roster, they see Triunfel providing some depth there, and he was already on the 40-man, so might as well call him up, but he shouldn’t play much if it all, and he isn’t really deserving of the call. In fact, I’d expect him to be removed from the 40-man this winter when the organization needs some roster spots for new additions, so this may be his only month in Seattle when all is said and done.
Jimenez is the exact opposite story, as he has all the athletic ability of Bill the Beerman, and approximately the same kind of physique to boot. Jimenez is a well traveled minor league lifer, and while he was decent for the Rainiers, he didn’t exactly destroy the PCL in the way that makes you think that maybe there’s something that scouts have missed. He’s the definition of a AAAA player, and since he wasn’t on the 40 man roster, I’m a bit surprised the team is calling him up.
However, the cost of adding him wasn’t all that significant, as they DFA’d Johermyn Chavez to clear a spot for Jimenez on the roster. Chavez was the other guy in the Brandon Morrow-Brandon League Challenge Trade that was ill-advised at the time and doesn’t look any better now, and he’s not a Major League player that the organization is going to miss, if anyone actually wants to claim him on waivers. In all likelihood, Chavez will clear and the end result will be no different for the team. Jimenez will probably be a fan favorite simply due to his size and the possibility that he could run into a fastball and hit it really far, but he’s not someone you should be penciling into the organization’s future. He’ll almost certainly be removed from the 40 man after the season ends, and this will be his one cup of coffee in the Majors that he’ll tell his grandkids about someday. It’s a good story, and hooray for him getting that chance to live the life of a big leaguer, but in terms of his future with the organization, keep your expectations low.
Minor League Wrap (8/27-9/3/12)
This is the final wrap of the year and also the last wrap I intend to do. As others before me, I have discovered that sports blogging as a hobby and grad school aren’t really reconcilable. I could conceivably stagger it out to another couple of years, but from my own standpoint, I’d rather bail before the extent of my half-assery becomes apparent and instead devote my five months of writing energy to, I don’t know, writing. I regard this largely as typing. Lots of typing. Anyway, I’ll still be around the Mariners internet scene and presumably will throw out an article every now and then, but my contributions will be without set timetable or specific definition.
Let’s have a links run, shall we? You didn’t hear about the Arizona Fall League rosters here because I posted that at Lookout Landing and don’t have anything additional to add. John Sickels decided to add to his Mariners focus by determining that IF Dan Paolini was worth writing about. The Baseball America notebook that focuses on the Mariners spotlighted something new to me, in that it talked about RHRP Matt Brazis who retired twenty-nine in a row at some point during this season. Usually they only talk about things I’ve long since been familiar with, so this is fun! Also at BA, Victor Sanchez made the last Prospect Hot Sheet of the year , with Hultzen as not-so hot, and RF Gabriel Guerrero as a helium watch, and there’s news that we’ve signed left-handed hitting Dominican third baseman Leurys Vargas for $400k. They talk about his bat speed and power as being selling points. This may or may not be the last you hear of him.
There are also league honors being announced. For example, the Southern League Postseason All-Star Team gives us a lot to think about, like Jesus Sucre being the catcher pick and Brandon Maurer being the right-handed starter selection, which can only mean that they don’t accept partial seasons oh wait Carter Capps is the reliever. Welp. The equivalent California League Post-Season All-Star Roster not only has Hicks at catcher, Landry in the outfield, Proscia as utility (whaaaat), and Elias as one of the pitchers, but has Grifol as Manager of the Year and Roy Howell as coach of the year. And they offer a Rookie of the Year Award? How many good players repeat the Cal League? The Northwest League roster featured a number of Aquasox, like Kivlehan at third AND as the league’s MVP, Zunino at catcher, and Ard as both first baseman and designated hitter which means he’s twice the prospect he once was, or two identical halves of the same prospect, or nothing has changed but it’s a nice honor. Boise has a player who is hitting .356/.435/.490, but as it turns out, no one likes him. On the Appalachian League roster, the picks were obviously C Tyler Marlette and OF Dario Pizzano. I also heard that CF Jesus Ugueto was the MVP of the VSL, but it’s only four teams now and he’s been around for four years, so any excitement you have is probably unwarranted.
And playoffs? Jackson starts a series against Chattanooga on Thursday, High Desert gets a bye until the wild cards resolve, which is Saturday I think, Clinton gets to start their series against Beloit on Wednesday, and Everett lost on Monday against Vancouver after they got one-hit. It continues, in Everett, tonight and hopefully tomorrow.
To the jump!
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