Dave’s 2013 Off-Season Plan
It’s that time again – every winter, I throw out some ideas for the team to pursue during the off-season, attaching names to the concepts I’m in favor of in order to illustrate the type of plan I’d like to see the team pursue. Last winter, that plan called for avoidance of the top of the free agent market, as the prices at the high end just didn’t make sense given the expected return on investment. This year, though, I think there’s actually going to be some interesting values to be found in free agency, and the plan is almost entirely based on signing free agents. It’s a reaction more to the available types of players rather than a change in philosophy, as free agency can be a useful way to acquire Major League players as long as you target the right ones. This year, I see a few guys who I think qualify as the right ones, so while others lament the lack of star power on the market, I’d suggest this is an opportunity for the team to be aggressive in spending in order to get a strong potential return.
With that said, on to the moves.
Sign OF/1B Nick Swisher to a seven year, $100 million contract.
Sign OF Melky Cabrera to a one year, $6 million (plus incentives) contract .
Sign SP Carlos Villanueva to a one year, $4 million contract.
Sign DH Travis Hafner to a one year, $3 million contract.
Re-sign SP Hisashi Iwakuma to a two year, $10 million contract.
Re-sign SP Jason Vargas to a two year, $12 million contract.
Trade 1B Mike Carp and OF Trayvon Robinson for IF Sean Rodriguez and C Chris Gimenez.
I’ll explain the thinking behind these decisions in a second, but first, a couple of tables – the top one is the projected opening day roster given this group, with the second being the line-ups that you could run out there based on this roster. Oh, and the roster has the salary breakdown information, so you can see where all the money is going. To the tables!
| Position | Player | Salary | Position | Player | Salary | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | John Jaso | $1,000,000 | SP | Felix Hernandez | $20,700,000 | |
| 1B | Justin Smoak | $550,000 | SP | Hisashi Iwakuma | $5,000,000 | |
| 2B | Dustin Ackley | $1,500,000 | SP | Jason Vargas | $6,000,000 | |
| SS | Brendan Ryan | $3,000,000 | SP | Erasmo Ramirez | $500,000 | |
| 3B | Kyle Seager | $500,000 | SP | Carlos Villanueva | $4,000,000 | |
| LF | Melky Cabrera | $6,000,000 | ||||
| CF | Michael Saunders | $1,000,000 | CL | Tom Wilhelmsen | $500,000 | |
| RF | Nick Swisher | $15,000,000 | RH | Carter Capps | $500,000 | |
| DH | Travis Hafner | $3,000,000 | LH | Charlie Furbush | $500,000 | |
| RH | Stephen Pryor | $500,000 | ||||
| C | Chris Gimenez | $500,000 | LH | Lucas Luetge | $500,000 | |
| IF | Sean Rodriguez | $1,000,000 | RH | Shawn Kelley | $1,000,000 | |
| OF | Franklin Gutierrez | $7,500,000 | RH | Blake Beavan | $500,000 | |
| OF | Casper Wells | $500,000 | ||||
| Cut | Chone Figgins | $8,000,000 | ||||
| Declined | Miguel Olivo | $750,000 | ||||
| Total | $90,000,000 |
| Vs RHB | Player | Bats | Position | Vs LHB | Player | Bats | Position | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | John Jaso | L | C | 1 | Franklin Gutierrez | R | CF | |
| 2 | Melky Cabrera | S | LF | 2 | Melky Cabrera | S | LF | |
| 3 | Nick Swisher | S | RF | 3 | Nick Swisher | S | 1B | |
| 4 | Travis Hafner | L | DH | 4 | Justin Smoak | S | DH | |
| 5 | Kyle Seager | L | 3B | 5 | Kyle Seager | L | 3B | |
| 6 | Justin Smoak | S | 1B | 6 | Michael Saunders | L | RF | |
| 7 | Michael Saunders | L | CF | 7 | Dustin Ackley | L | 2B | |
| 8 | Dustin Ackley | L | 2B | 8 | Chris Gimenez | R | C | |
| 9 | Brendan Ryan | R | SS | 9 | Brendan Ryan | R | SS | |
| Bench | Chris Gimenez | R | C | Bench | John Jaso | L | C | |
| Bench | Sean Rodriguez | R | IF | Bench | Sean Rodriguez | R | IF | |
| Bench | Franklin Gutierrez | R | OF | Bench | Casper Wells | R | OF | |
| Bench | Casper Wells | R | IF | Bench | Travis Hafner | L | DH |
Okay, now that we’ve just dumped a bunch of information on you, how about some explanations.
The Overview
The Mariners are honestly in a bit of an awkward situation. They’ve committed to building a core group through the farm system that can sustain a winner for years to come. They have some pieces in place that could — or should — be part of that core, but as a whole, they’re not quite ready to win. The organization’s future is still brighter than its present. Unfortunately, with only two years left on Felix Hernandez‘s contract and attendance that continues to trend the wrong way, the Mariners can’t keep asking fans to just wait around and watch the kids develop. The kids need help, and in some cases, the kids might need replacing. There’s enough talent on hand to win 75-80 games again next year, but they need to add about 10 wins of talent this winter to put themselves in a position to make an unexpected run at the playoffs next year. And they need to do it without throwing away the pieces that a future contender could be built around.
That’s not easy. Any team can borrow from the future to increase their odds in the present, either by trading prospects for veterans or signing players to inflated free agent contracts that harm the team’s ability to compete going forward. That kind of win-now roster construction is generally counterproductive unless a team is sure they’ve got a real shot at the playoffs and the riches that come along with a postseason appearance. The Mariners aren’t there yet. But they also can’t afford to sit on their hands and run another sub-.500 team out there while asking the fans to wait for the kids to develop. The natives are restless, attendance is down again, and Felix Hernandez‘s contract is about to come back into the spotlight. It’s time for the Mariners to put a competitive team on the field again, making this a winter where they can’t just sit back and hope things fall into place. They need to be aggressive, make smart moves, and improve the overall talent base of the organization, both for 2013 and beyond.
The Specifics
The Mariners are weak at the corner positions. This isn’t news, so it shouldn’t be any huge surprise that I’ve targeted players who fill those holes. But, I didn’t just pick Swisher, Cabrera, and Hafner out of a hat. There are reasons why I think these three specifically are the right upgrades for this roster.
Let’s start with Swisher, since that’s obviously the big move of the bunch. While 7/100 might sound aggressive for a guy is more good player than superstar, we have to remember to keep up with the changing economics of the game. I wrote about his free agent valuation on FanGraphs a few months ago, noting that he’s a better player than Andre Ethier, who just got 5/85 from the Dodgers to forego free agency this winter. While $100 million still carries a “star player” reputation, the reality is that a deal for 7/100 is only an AAV of $14 million, about 40% less than what the big ticket guys were signing for last winter. $200 million is the new $100 million, and $100 million is the new $50 million. Prices for players are going up, and so Swisher’s going to cost more than a similar player would have cost a few years ago, especially because you’re trying to buy him away from New York.
Any time you’re trying to poach a player from the Yankees, you’re unlikely to get any kind of huge bargain. If you want him to leave New York to come back to the west coast and hit in Safeco Field, you’re going to have to make it worth his while. By going longer on years than NYY may be comfortable with and giving him a bit more up front, the Mariners may be able to put an offer out there that the Yankees won’t want to match as they try to get under the luxury tax. I’d be more comfortable with 5/75 too, and maybe he’d re-sign with the Yankees for that, but I don’t think he’s coming to Seattle for 5/75. At 7/100, though, the Mariners would have a real chance to get him.
And they should want to get him. Right now, Swisher’s a perfect fit for what this team needs in a player. As a switch-hitter with power and patience, he’d give the team one of the most consistent, dependable bats in baseball, and one that gives the team the flexibility they need to keep evaluating the players already on the roster. Specifically, his ability to shift between the outfield and first base buys the team an insurance policy on Justin Smoak and Jesus Montero without forcing the team to make a potentially premature decision on either one. If either one steps up as an obvious candidate for the starting first base job in spring training, then Swisher plays right field full-time. If both continue to struggle, Swisher can step into that role, and the team’s new-found outfield depth can cover his vacated spot in right field.
And, yes, I said outfield depth. Something the Mariners haven’t had nearly enough of the last few years. They’ve bet on guys who weren’t reliable enough to be bet on and didn’t have viable alternatives in place for when things when wrong. That can’t happen again, which is why I’m also advocating that the Mariners be the team to give Melky Cabrera a chance at redemption. I know, a decent chunk of you are just going to see Melky as a steroids cheat who was terrible before he started juicing and will go right back to being now that he’s been caught. But, I don’t think there’s any evidence that the truth is that simple, or that Melky will be a worthless player going forward.
Even if we throw out his 2012 season as tainted and assume that none of his production this year was legitimate improvement at the age of 27, his career wRC+ before this year was 93, and he flashed the exact same high contact/gap power skillset that made him so productive for the Giants this year and the Royals last year. A guy who can be roughly a league average hitter in his early-20s will usually turn into an above average hitter in his late-20s, and a clean Cabrera can still be a productive offensive player. No, you don’t expect him to do anything like what he did for San Francisco this year, but he hit .305/.339/.470 for Kansas City last year and passed every drug test he took while doing it. Offensively, his skillset is pretty similar to Kyle Seager‘s, only he’s also a switch-hitter and a pretty decent baserunner who can handle both OF corners.
Melky’s suspension is going to dramatically depress his market value, though, and he’s almost certainly not going to be able to land a multi-year deal this winter. Every suitor is going to be offering a one year deal with incentives, so the Mariners will just have to make the case that their low-pressure media market is the perfect place for him to rehabilitate his image, and failing that, just outbid everyone else on the incentive package. It might take an extra $5+ million in incentives tied to playing time, but given that Melky could easily be a +2 to +3 win player at a significant position of need, the Mariners should be happy to write the extra checks if they come due. Paying those incentives would mean that Cabrera was productive and healthy, and that the contract was a positive investment for the franchise.
Of course, slotting Cabrera in one corner and Swisher in the other means that I’m only leaving one outfield spot open for Michael Saunders and Franklin Gutierrez. I’m okay with that. Both are talented enough to deserve starting jobs, but only one of them is durable enough to be given one. While it’d be great if Gutierrez got 500 plate appearances next year, the organization simply can’t plan for it, and that’s why Gutierrez begins the year as a part-time player. However, it’s a job with a path to more playing time, because of the attributes of the guy I’m bringing in to DH.
Travis Hafner is basically the DH version of Gutierrez. He had knee surgery in May and then got shut down at the end of the year due to a herniated disc in his back. He’s averaged just 300 plate appearances per year for the last five years. He’s basically a guarantee to miss time next year, and any team signing him is basically signing up for a half season of baseball. But, that half season will probably be fairly productive. When Hafner was on the field this year, he hit .228/.346/.438, posting a 118 wRC+ even while his BABIP was just .233. Old slow DH’s are prone to posting lower than average BABIPs, but Hafner’s been old and slow for a long time, and he’s never showed any propensity for low BABIPs before – in fact, he was at .332 in each of the two previous seasons. With his power and patience, even a modest BABIP regression makes him a terrific hitter, so Hafner’s got a good chance of being quite useful when he’s healthy enough to play.
And when he’s not, that simply opens up a spot for Gutierrez. Essentially, this roster has Gutierrez and Hafner in a platoon, so when Hafner is not able to play, Guti can slide into an OF spot, Swisher can move to first base, and Smoak can shift to DH. By adding a frail left-handed hitter to share a job with the frail right-handed batter already on the roster, the Mariners maximize their chances of getting production from one position without the downside of having to scramble when the inevitable injury strikes one or the other. And, if both are healthy and productive, then the team has some depth to cover for a regression from Michael Saunders or a lack of production from Melky Cabrera.
And, of course, the depth doesn’t end with Gutierrez. In fact, being aggressive enough to sign Swisher, Cabrera, and Hafner gives the team another insurance policy that you don’t even see on the roster – Jesus Montero. In the ideal scenario where Smoak keeps hitting like September Smoak and Hafner is healthy enough to start the season on the roster, Montero can head to Tacoma and begin the permanent conversion to 1B/DH. The team can let him get comfortable at first base away from the limelight of the Major Leagues, and at the same time, they can get an extra year of team control by having him spend a month or so in Triple-A. Hafner gives the team a short-term bridge to allow Montero to hang up his catcher’s glove and learn to play first base, but also gives them some additional future value by not needing to count on him as their DH to begin the year.
If Smoak flops and Montero has shown that he’s ready to play a Major League first base, then he can simply take over the position, keeping Swisher in right field. If Hafner gets hurt, Montero can replace him as the DH. If neither of those things happen, well, awesome, and also, Montero gets a few months in the minors to work on hitting right-handers and improving his approach at the plate. He’s not yet at a level where a few months in Triple-A would stunt his development, especially as he transitions out of being a catcher. Having Hafner around not only improves the offense in 2013, but potentially buys you a better Jesus Montero in the second half of the season and an additional year of control over Montero in the future.
We haven’t even yet touched on Casper Wells, who would be able to maintain the fourth OF/pinch-hitter against LHB role even in case of an injury, and wouldn’t need to be pressed into regular work if/when Gutierrez hits the DL next year. We also haven’t talked about Sean Rodriguez, who would replace Munenori Kawasaki on the roster and take over as the reserve 2B/SS/3B, providing a right-handed bat who can hit lefties and play all three positions. Rodriguez gives the team a decent enough fallback if Dustin Ackley struggles early, as well as a more potent force who can play shortstop on days when Brendan Ryan isn’t available. The Rays have the IF depth to part with him, and as an arbitration eligible guy, the team should be able to pry him away by shipping off Carp and Robinson, neither of whom have a role on this club going forward.
In that hypothetical trade, I’m also asking the Rays if we can have Chris Gimenez back, because with Olivo gone and Montero back in Tacoma, John Jaso needs a platoon partner. But he needs a specific kind of platoon partner, because acquiring a right-handed catcher who is too capable might mean that Eric Wedge again finds an excuse to bury Jaso, which is counterproductive for the organization. Jack Z needs to give his manager a back-up catcher who he won’t be tempted to use against right-handed pitching, and who can be easily discarded if Mike Zunino proves ready for the big leagues at some point during the summer. Gimenez fits the bill nicely. He’s good enough to serve as a part-time catcher against left-handed pitchers but not too good to get in Jaso’s way, and if Zunino forces his way onto the roster, Gimenez can either be DFA’d or turned into a super utility guy who can pinch-run for the catcher if need be.
The only position on the roster that lacks real depth is third base, where Sean Rodriguez probably wouldn’t be an adequate full-time replacemenet if Kyle Seager gets hurt, and there isn’t really anyone on the farm who would be able to fit the bill either. But, given that this is an organization that has been wasting plate appearances on the likes of Chone Figgins, Miguel Olivo, Carlos Peguero, Trayvon Robinson, and Munenori Kawasaki, having just one position where you might have to throw some at-bats away sounds like heaven. Having five capable outfielders for three spots, four guys who could split time at 1B/DH, and having Zunino behind Jaso at catcher provides the team with all kinds of interesting avenues to success.
If the kids don’t develop, that’s okay. If the kids do develop, there’s room for them to push their way onto the roster. This kind of plan gives the team the ability to play the young players who are producing without being forced to rely on them if they aren’t. While most of the focus on the offense’s struggles have been on the lack of elite performance at the top end, the offense can also take a big step forward by simply raising the floor on the low end. This offense tries to do both at the same time.
On the pitching side of things, the plan is a lot simpler. Offer both Jason Vargas and Hisashi Iwakuma two year deals at $5-$6 million per year, which was essentially the going rate for these types of pitchers last year. Even with the fences coming in, Safeco is likely to be somewhat pitcher friendly, and both have stated that they want to come back, so I wouldn’t expect either of these negotiations to be all that complicated. These guys aren’t going to strike it rich as free agents, and sticking around in Seattle is probably in both of their best interests.
So, with only one opening on the pitching side of things and most of the money spent on a position players, we go hunting for a #5 starter who could potentially benefit from a move to the west coast and deserves a chance to see what he can do as a starter over a full season, with the flexibility to move back to the bullpen if the experiment fails or if he’s simply displaced by one of the younger pitching prospects pushing his way into the rotation. There’s one guy on the market who fits that description to a tee – Carlos Villanueva.
In some ways, he’s basically a right-handed Jason Vargas. He throws an 88 MPH four-seam fastball up in the zone, which leads to a bit of a home run problem, and he relies on an excellent change-up to get opposing hitters out. On another hand, he’s more of a swing-and-miss guy than Vargas is, and essentially just needs to cut down on his home runs allowed to turn into a pretty good starting pitcher, so that makes him more of an Hisashi Iwakuma clone. Whether you want to think of him as Vargas-with-more-strikeouts or Iwakuma-with-fewer-groundballs, he’s just a hybrid of the two skillsets and would fit in nicely as the team’s fifth starter.
He’s not any kind of ace, but as a low-cost back-end starter, he’s a significant upgrade over the likes of Blake Beavan, who can move to the long role in the bullpen and hang around in case anyone gets hurt. And, as mentioned, Villanueva has significant experience as a reliever, so if he doesn’t hack it as a starter, the team would have another bullpen guy who can miss bats and pitch multiple innings. More depth. I hope you’re sensing a trend.
Overall, my projection suggests that this team would cost about $90 million to put together, and incentives for Melky and a few of the pitchers would probably push the budget up to $95 million or so, as they’d have to account for some of those extras kicking in. It’s definitely an increase in salary over what the team spent this year, but it’s not an absurd increase that revenues won’t be able to support, and it comes with with strong potential for a return on investment. This is a roster that probably projects out as an 80-85 win club, but is one with enough upside to make a playoff run in 2013.
And this is the kind of off-season that lets the team go to Felix with a contract extension in hand and get him to sign up for another four or five years. This is the kind of off-season that puts the team in a position to get their fans back. This is the kind of off-season that makes 2013 interesting without harming 2014 and beyond.
Yeah, maybe 7/100 is a little high for Nick Swisher. Maybe signing Melky Cabrera coming off a steroids suspension isn’t going to sell any tickets. Maybe Travis Hafner is going to spend more time on the disabled list than on the field. If you’re looking for guaranteed sure things, you’re in the wrong place. Really, you’re following the wrong sport.
There are no guarantees in baseball, especially in free agency. The best you can do is improve your odds and make sure you have contingency plans in place when things don’t go as you hoped. This roster is full of contingency plans, but also makes sure that trying to win in the present doesn’t interfere with the team’s attempt to build a core for the future. You can do both. It’s not easy, but there are pieces available that can improve the organization without requiring that they sacrifice the future to get them.
And then, in 2014, if Zunino, Montero, Franklin, Hultzen, Paxton, and Walker all have the kinds of years you’re hoping they have, you can re-make the roster with whatever players still make sense. Swisher’s the only guy you’re committing to long term, and his positional flexibility means that he’s not blocking anyone going forward. This is still a roster that is building for the future, but it’s one that could win in 2013 if enough things break right.
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185 Responses to “Dave’s 2013 Off-Season Plan”
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If Swisher is unavailable (and thats a good possibility), The same money could likely get you Youkilis and Pagan or Victorino on much shorter deals. My assumption is that one, but not both, of Ackley and Smoak will make the team out of spring training. If Ackley stays and Smoak goes to AAA, Youkilis plays 1st. If Smoak continues his September in ST, then Seager can play 2B and Youkilis can play 3rd. Pagan can play CF or LF and cover for Saunders and Guti in case of injury.
This is incorrect. The classic “old player skillset” is a player with power and walks but who, on defense, plays like a tree wearing a glove (Richie Sexson, Prince Fielder, etc.). Swisher has always been a capable defender, and offers positional flexibility to boot.
Taken in isolation, all “power and walks” means is the player isn’t considered a glove-first guy.
According to the Arizona Republic, the Diamondbacks are trying to decide between Kubel and Parra as their left-fielder next year.
Perhaps Kubel would be an interesting guy to trade for, if the Diamondbacks feel he’s expendable?
Carp was born to be a KC Royal. He’s gone.
Makes sense to me. Carp reminds me so much of Raul Ibanez when he was first making his way to the bigs, it’s not even funny. Same size, same lefty sort of sweep swing, same moderate power, and the same basic defensive limitations.
And it was in Kansas City that Ibanez found himself as a major-leaguer.
Yeah, I have to concur. Carp is ticketed for Kansas City.
Thanks for the great piece, Dave. I look forward to it every year (been reading USSM for years; used to cover games for mlb.com).
I’m curious: Obviously, you don’t have time to think through all of the possible trade scenarios that JZ may consider. But I think many of us are curious—or just me, who knows—about your backup plan if the Swisher FA route doesn’t happen.
Would it be wise to swap some of our gems (or future busts) now for youngish players who can hit (Montero 2.0, I suppose, but much better)? Or would you hang on to them in hopes that one or two turn out to be stars in 2014?
If you see a future post here, awesome. If not, I’ll just keep enjoying USSM posts anyway. Grace n’ Peace.
This is a really interesting plan. I’d love to see something like this happen.
My only qualm is giving up the draft pick for Swisher. Assuming NY gives him a qualifying offer (a safe assumption) the M’s would have to give up the #12 overall pick.
That might seem trivial since we are talking about a player who isn’t even in the system. But look at what the club has done with early round picks (rounds 1-5) since Jack et al took over:
2012: Mike Zunino, Joe DeCarlo, Edwin Diaz, Tyler Pike, Patrick Kivlehan, Chris Taylor
2011: Danny Hultzen, Brad Miller, Kevin Cron (didn’t sign) Carter Capps, John Hicks, Tyler Marlette
2010: No first pick, Taijuan Walker, Marcus Littlewood, Ryne Stanek (didn’t sign), James Paxton, Stephen Pryor
2009: Dustin Ackley, Nick Franklin, Steven Baron, Rich Poythress, Kyle Seager, James Jones, Tyler Blandford
That’s a damn good track record. The one thing the M’s are doing really really well right now is finding talent through the draft. With the #12 pick, the M’s could pick up another cornerstone player. If it was just a second rounder, no big deal. But that is a really high pick.
The new spending guidelines make this even more of an issue. With the new CBA, teams can’t just overspend on fist round talents that fall to later rounds to make up for lost picks. If we lose that pick, we also lose about half the draft budget. Last year the M’s distributed their cash wisely, signing Zunino for under slot and using that space in the budget to give overslot bonuses to prep talents later in the draft. If the M’s give up the their first rounder, they lose the most of their ability to do that. Thus, it could very likely impact several other early round picks.
Look at the list above. The M’s draft really well. Signing Swisher for 7/100 is a bit of an overpay, especially since he’d be nearly 40 at the end of the deal. But giving up a potential blue-chip talent and significantly undermining the teams draft budget is a huge price to pay. I know that draft picks are anything but a sure thing, and it’s easier to talk about losing a player who isn’t even in the system right now, but I’m hoping they can mprove the offense without forfeiting that pick. It’s a big deal.
I agree with all of this. Plus it will give me a reason to actually buy the nick swisher cover album.
http://deadspin.com/5827423/nick-swisher-has-released-a-childrens-album
*I’m hoping they can improve the offense without forfeiting that pick. It’s a big deal.*
We aren’t going to get something worth having for nothing. I think it’s a pretty long shot that a #12 pick is going to wind up more valuable than Nick Swisher.
I’m hoping they can mprove the offense without forfeiting that pick.
… and a pony?
Seriously, if we’re never going to sign a good free agent ever again because we’ll lose draft picks and signing budget, we’ve just crippled ourselves by unilaterally taking a weapon out of our arsenal.
There simply aren’t players in the system, close or far, capable of adding much offense from the traditional power positions. What this means is “settle for ~75 win seasons like the A’s did for a while waiting for things to turn up”.
That being said, if Zduriencik isn’t going to get much of a budget boost in the offseason, Swisher is a pipe dream.
“Seriously, if we’re never going to sign a good free agent ever again because we’ll lose draft picks and signing budget, we’ve just crippled ourselves by unilaterally taking a weapon out of our arsenal.”
Nice straw man argument.
I didn’t say never sign someone who will cost a pick. I’d just reserve paying that penalty for a player who is an elite guy. Swisher is good, but not an elite player. He’s a ~3 win guy going forward. The contract Dave suggests is a substantial sum of money, especially given his age and the number of years. Giving up the chance to add a premium prospect to the organization, on top of the contract, is too much in my opinion.
Think about it this way: assume Swisher was under contract with another team with the same money and years. Would you trade Taijuan Walker for him? I wouldn’t. Walker may be a year or two closer to the big leagues than whoever the M’s would get, but that’s the type of talent available in the first 10-15 picks.
There are many ways to improve the team, and many of them don’t involve punting that pick. Your argument that the M’s MUST forfeit that pick to avoid another 75 win season isn’t necessarily true.
BBR comps suggest Swisher will be done after age 34 season.
100 mil for 7 years would be special.
Looking at the standings, I’m wondering how soon we could contend realistically. Anything can happen in baseball, but we’d need to have an amazing season or have 3 teams decline significantly to contend next year.
Would you trade Taijuan Walker for him? I wouldn’t. Walker may be a year or two closer to the big leagues than whoever the M’s would get, but that’s the type of talent available in the first 10-15 picks.
And Taijuan Walker may blow out an arm or turn into David Aardsma.
The bottom line is the current 25/40 man roster isn’t going to contend in a division where you have three teams with plenty of young talent. As Dave said:
Any player who is a significant addition will either cost a draft pick or prospects in trade. They’re better off punting the #12 pick than they are punting a prospect who is already in Double-A or Triple-A.
If you don’t want to punt the draft pick or the talent, then you’re basically saying “let’s hang out with the current roster (that didn’t contend) until we have enough talent to contend”. That’s fine for the 2016 Mariners, maybe, but it’s not likely to help the 2013 Mariners contend. The A’s just spent 5 years putting together “not-horrible but not-good” rosters, because they weren’t going to spend on free agents or bulk up on salary. If you’d like other examples of how just hoping the prospects turn into a champion doesn’t always work out, look at the Cleveland “hire Chris Antonetti” Indians around 2007, and the Brewers the last few years.
Anyways, as I hinted at, I think this is academic. I don’t think the M’s will raise the budget to allow a big signing on the scale Dave suggests, if you read the tea leaves from that GMZ interview. I think this offseason is going to be maybe be a Figgins-type signing plus lots of Large Item Pickup Day, plus hoping Smoak/Ackley/Guti pan out, with an off chance of a Cliff Lee-type deal to razzle-dazzle us (but not likely). Likely this will make you happy in March, though it may disappoint us come July.
I’m joining this conversation a little late. I really enjoyed reading Dave’s post and the follow-up comments, even Orin’s.
All I can really think of to add to the thread is to point out that the Mariners, in their current incarnation, seem to be very good at selecting talent in the draft. With Tom McNamara in charge, that’s an area of organizational strength. One could argue, therefore, that the 12th pick in the draft is worth more to the M’s than it might have been in previous eras when they were less proficient in that area. I’m not saying they shouldn’t go after Swisher. On the contrary, I’m all for it. But there is that element in play that in signing a player like Swisher, they are potentially hamstringing themselves in the one organizational function that they seem to be really good at.
The only other thing is that I hope Dave gives us some updates to this plan as the offseason develops and teams start making moves and some of the players listed above find homes.
The only other thing is that I hope Dave gives us some updates to this plan as the offseason develops
Me too. Though, to be selfish about free content, one other thing I’d be interested in, is an all-out, rosterbating, completely speculative, mirror-mirror version of this post from Dave. I.e. I’d be curious to see what the nearly-all-trades version of this would be.
I know Dave’s stance is that the farm still needs development, that there isn’t enough pitching depth due to general TINSTAAPP and such, etc.
But pretend Gillick was here, or that the free agent market got poached and inflated due to Marlins-style crazypants spending. I wonder what the impact trade(s) are that could make for a good 2013 and beyond, without selling the entire farm.
There must be some way to recycle some of the outfield AAAA parts to turn into more AA potential? Perhaps peeling off one prime pitching prospect plus… Montero? Smoak?… and a reliever to turn into say a Justin Upton?
I know it may not be favorable, but would including Ackley in a deal for a 3B (Headley) and moving Seager to 2B be a smart move?
I like Ackley, but I really worry about his ability to hit major league pitching.
Should I just be more patient?
^Sell low on a multi-tool second overall draft pick, with just over a year of MLB experience? Yeah, probably not a smart move.
“If you don’t want to punt the draft pick or the talent, then you’re basically saying ‘let’s hang out with the current roster (that didn’t contend) until we have enough talent to contend’. That’s fine for the 2016 Mariners, maybe, but it’s not likely to help the 2013 Mariners contend.”
This is where you and I fundamentally disagree.
I don’t think this is a simple decision between “buy expensive free agents or accept mediocrity.”
There are lots of ways to improve the team for next year, and many of those options don’t include giving up that pick. You present this as a simple decision between two or three options: give up pick to sign top free agent; trade our best prospects; or be terrible for 3 years. I don’t buy this at all.
We picked up Cliff Lee without giving up any elite players. And look at what happened in free agency last year. Guys like Ty Willingham, Ryan Ludwick, Ryan Doumit, Carlos Beltran, Aaron Hill, Yoenis Cespedes, and Jason Kubel all were signed in free agency without their teams having to forfeit first round picks, and all were very valuable players. I don’t think this offseason is going to be much different. There are players available who could help the M’s.
It remains to be seen who will get offers from their respective teams and thus cost a draft pick. And it also remains to be seen who will be available via trade or nontendered once free agency starts. But there will be talent available that won’t cost picks. Its not a simple either/or decision like you suggest.
You present this as a simple decision between two or three options: give up pick to sign top free agent; trade our best prospects; or be terrible for 3 years.
Speaking of straw men, that’s actually not what I said. But perhaps I can repeat myself redundantly again. 😉
The current M’s roster of 2012 is roughly equivalent to the A’s roster of the last few years prior to 2012: horrible offense, decent pitching and good defense, so overall not a winning team, but not a terrible team either- the offense is a big drag on the team, but they win enough games to not be a complete trainwreck.
The biggest difference between the two boils down to Felix- if you lopped his ~$20 million off the roster, both teams would have nearly identical salaries in 2012. Essentially, what Zduriencik has done is recreate Oakland- no big name bats that would cost anything in free agency, concentrate on pitching and defense you can buy up cheap.
So, what I am arguing is this: if there are multiple paths to putting together a better 2013 team, saying “no free agents because we don’t want to punt a draft pick, no trading talent from our system because it’s so awesome” leaves you with Large Item Pickup Day from second-tier FAs or whatever roster dregs you get, or hoping you can recreate the Cliff Lee trade (which is not exactly a mortal lock, and also ignores that it didn’t actually improve the 2010 Mariners very much because of other factors: it didn’t put us into contention and Smoak/Beavan aren’t really panning out all that well, so while it was bedazzling the net impact was negligible).
Could the Mariners improve that way? Sure- this is what happened in 2009, getting guys like Branyan. But you’re precluding options- less options means a narrower path. And, like the A’s, you might be waiting for a while for your shot. Granted, there are worse things than being a 75-81 win team floating around waiting for the right combination of low-budget moves to propel your team into contention, but I don’t think it’s particularly guaranteed to work in 2013.
Dave’s proposal is, if you boil off the namedropping, “be willing to spend some money to boost payroll and sign reasonable FA contracts if it makes the 2013 team better”. I think it’s a valid approach. I also think M’s ownership is not likely to do this- attendance is still declining, and the team is likely to go cheap and hope for the best, as you’ve indicated is your preferred plan. I think it will likely yield another not-horrible, not-good team.
Because another year below .500 could be costly to goodwill in Seattle, and because it could cost this regime their jobs, ownership may feel obligated to give Z enough rope to hang himself with. Hopefully Z knows a few slip knots (to butcher the analogy) and can make some salary space into a near contender somehow.
Small sample size be damned, somehow I don’t think Nick Swisher is going to be wanted back in New York after his pitiful playoff performance. Either way, seven years of a good, but not great player’s inevitable decline? No thanks. Whoever goes down that road is going to regret it. Hopefully, that team is not the Mariners.
I’m not saying avoid high priced players. You can get very good players who won’t cost draft picks. Zach Greinke, arguably the best player available this offseason, won’t cost a pick. Melky Cabrera and Angel Pagan are both players who were better than Swisher (per WAR) but probably won’t cost a draft pick. I think there will be some good players available via trade too, especially if the ms are willing to acquire guys with substantial contracts (like the Dodgers moves at the deadline).
Jack is a smart guy. I wouldn’t be surprised to see another trade involving young players like the Montero/Pineda deal. Something lie Taijan Walker for Wil Meyers would be bold. I hope they hold on to their best prospects, but if the return is a young cost controlled player with tons of upside who fits an area of need, why not?
Again, I’m not saying the M’s should take the A’s route. But the one thing the M’s do really well is acquire talent through the draft. We have a lot of good players right now, and I think the club will improve a lot in the next year even without significant moves. The best way to build a consistent contender is to keep adding talent through the draft. Giving up the 12th overall pick isn’t the way to do that.
And returning to your comp between the M’s and A’s, the biggest difference is that we have money to retain players. The A’s are consistently trading good players for prospects because they can’t afford to keep them. We don’t have that problem. But you have to develop talent in order to retain them.
Trying to buy our way to contention in free agency might speed things up a bit, but could undermine our ability to contend in the future. Look at the Royals, Pirates, and Orioles. They tried to improve by investing heavily in second-tier free agents, and were terrible for years. Then all three focused on developing talent internally, and all three are nowinteresting. I’m not saying we should avoid free agency. I’m saying we should add talent in such a way to avoid undermining our best method for building a long-term winning team.
And returning to your comp between the M’s and A’s, the biggest difference is that we have money to retain players.
Not really- otherwise we could have signed Cliff Lee to a deal when we traded for him, right? We could have kept Beltre, right? Do you think the Mariners would have been helped having those players as part of the team?
The fact is that payroll’s been cut by about a third over the last 4-5 years, and that’s drained talent away that we couldn’t afford to keep (there is no question the M’s would be a better team with Lee and Beltre as opposed to Smoak, Beavan and a large stack of dollar bills they didn’t spend). Were it not for Felix, it would be about the same as Oakland’s. We’re now in the bottom half of MLB in payroll- and if you look, payroll is pretty strongly correlated with attendance– which is sort of Dave’s point:
The Mariners aren’t there yet. But they also can’t afford to sit on their hands and run another sub-.500 team out there while asking the fans to wait for the kids to develop. The natives are restless, attendance is down again, and Felix Hernandez‘s contract is about to come back into the spotlight. It’s time for the Mariners to put a competitive team on the field again, making this a winter where they can’t just sit back and hope things fall into place.
But anyways…
I’m not saying we should avoid free agency. I’m saying we should add talent in such a way to avoid undermining our best method for building a long-term winning team.
How is this different than:
There’s enough talent on hand to win 75-80 games again next year, but they need to add about 10 wins of talent this winter to put themselves in a position to make an unexpected run at the playoffs next year. And they need to do it without throwing away the pieces that a future contender could be built around.
I think it’s going to be difficult to add those 10 wins Dave talks about if you don’t spend money on the FA market. Sure, who wouldn’t love it if Cliff Lee falls in our lap again for busted prospects? Nobody is going to argue that getting those 10 wins through the 2013 equivalent of the JJ Putz deal would be bad. But would getting those 10 wins in 2013 be worth a draft pick in 2013, as opposed to watching a 76-86 team fritter away a year of another HOFer’s career? For me, it is. At some point, it has to be jam today, not jam yesterday and jam tomorrow.
Ok, you and I are just arguing past each other.
Listen, I’m not saying that the M’s shouldn’t spend money! They should absolutely get the payroll back up around when it was two years ago, and plan to ramp up payroll past $100 mil by 2014 or 2015 at the latest. The payroll needs to go up. Nobody is arguing that it shouldn’t.
And nobody is arguing that the team needs to wait a few more years to win. This definitely should be the year that the club at least returns to respectability. But most of that turnaround is going to come from guys already on the roster. And that isn’t an unrealistic expectation. Guys like Montero, Seager, Ackley, Saunders, and Smoak all have some upside. We can’t expect all of them to break out, but a few of them need to. Otherwise, this team isn’t going to win next year, regardless of what we do in free agency. I know that people are impatient, but that doesn’t mean you abandon the process that is already in place.
You seem to be operating on the assumption that giving up that draft pick (or gutting the farm system through trades) is 100% necessary to add those 10 wins. I’m saying that isn’t the case. I’m not saying don’t spend money. Just don’t do so in a way that costs us a VERY valuable draft pick. There are always options.
Your argument is based on an assumption that isn’t necessarily true. Jack is a smart guy. I have confidence that he can help this club without going on a drunken sailor spending spree in free agency. Giving up a valuable draft pick just for the opportunity to give a questionable contract to a non-elite player is too much, IMHO.
Guys like Montero, Seager, Ackley, Saunders, and Smoak all have some upside.
Sure. But they all also have downside risk. Smoak’s been in MLB for 1400+ plate appearances- are you really willing to bet the 2013 season that his last 100 or so plate appearances really, truly represent Smoak, especially given his occasional hot streaks before?
Montero is nothing remotely approaching a lock to be a good player anytime soon- his BB/K rates are pretty bad. Dave’s gone into detail pointing out that his comps aren’t all that good (elite hitters usually have a much better clue about the strike zone by this point in their careers- yeah, it’s early, but elite hitters are good hitters early, that’s part of what makes them elite). Sure, Montero is obviously the black swan about to have his own unique snowflake of a career because he’s wearing a compass rose on his uniform, but we’re still discussing a guy whose best position right now is DH, who isn’t actually hitting RHP any better than Willie Bloomquist hits them.
It’s also a bit dangerous to assume that players who are on a peak year (Saunders and Seager) can continue to build on that peak, as opposed to be around the level they are at, or even slide back a bit. I think the park changes will help their hitting stats without actually making them better players.
Ackley is the player who probably has the most upside of all the ones mentioned, I think, but even there it’s not a lock he’ll get a lot better than he is (and he’s not terrible right now).
I suppose I’m more conservative than you are in assessing the talent base we’re starting with. Is it better than years past? Unquestionably. I think we’ll be doing well if we end up with an additional 2-3 WAR out of that group if players you mentioned next year. OK, that leaves us 7-8 WAR short.
You seem to be operating on the assumption that giving up that draft pick (or gutting the farm system through trades) is 100% necessary to add those 10 wins.
I’m saying you shouldn’t preclude options to improve the 2013 team. Adding a reasonably priced free agent that adds wins in 2013-2015 and perhaps losing a player that is likely not to show up before 2016 as an average MLB regular is worth it. Nothing Dave has proposed does violence to the M’s ability to rebuild the organization; plenty of salary comes off the books in 2014, none of the young talent in the system is traded, if the M’s do well in 2013 there’s easily room to continue to grow payroll.
Yes, Jack is a smart guy. He also signed Chone Figgins and traded for Justin Smoak (who was a first round draft pick at around where the M’s will draft this year- so it’s pretty obvious that in an alternate universe, he could be OUR draft pick in the process of having a very mediocre career, instead of Texas’s). Talent evaluation isn’t infallible, and there are risks in both using the free agent market and in draft picks.
I have confidence that he can help this club without going on a drunken sailor spending spree in free agency.
The contracts proposed are reasonable, and spending is spending- if you’re going to pick up salary like the Dodgers did, you’re going to be picking up older players like Adrian Gonzalez.
And the problem with waiting for a deadline salary dump deal instead of signing in free agency is that you don’t get the wins guys like A-Gon give you in April-July. Do you think the Dodgers would have traded their first round draft pick if they could have gotten A-Gon for opening day instead of August 25? I bet they would have. Also, as Dave’s pointed out, the new national deals coming into play the next few years are going to likely mean less teams need to salary dump, and free agency is likely to become more expensive.
And again… I think this is academic. I think it is much more likely that payroll will stay at ~2012 levels, if not decline, and we will take a strategy much more to your liking: we’ll dive in on whatever players the $~10 million in payroll flexibility we have for 2013 lets us grab (not much- Iwakuma is probably a lot of that), hope that everyone you mentioned plus Guti pans out (which is not completely unreasonable, if probably disappointing) and Jack will hustle to try and patch the organizational holes however he can, but without spending much in the FA market. And we’ll likely have a pretty decent draft choice in 2013 and 2014, without us really taking a strong leap forward or backward from 2012.
It would be a very bad idea to make Nick Swisher the center piece of any of our off-season activities. I can almost guarantee to my fellow Mariner fans that he would be a larger bust than Jeff Cirillo and Chone Figgins combined. Do not overvalue him. To sign him to the multi-year deal described above would be, relatively speaking the worst signing in Mariner baseball history. That is saying something….
First, I must say that Dave is nothing more than a smart fan who gets off by knocking people in baseball that actually make a living off the game. But I do give Dave props for writing this. He puts this out there before the FA market has even had the smallest chance of being set. I’m sure in a month, 2 months, etc he will edit this as the market takes shape. So it’s not really fair to knock anything Dave says here when he’s just voicing his opinion at a very early stage in the game.
That said, how funny is it that ANYone can sign up to comment here, and Dave sits and argues with some of these people as if they are anymore qualified to comment on baseball than he is? Pure comedy gold.
^So, explain why you signed-up to post a comment? Do you not see how you’re a complete hypocrite regarding the statement you made?
You criticize Dave’s credentials, but you obviously don’t know what they are, or how he’s gotten to the place he’s at now. Here’s a hint… try following the links. If that’s too complicated for you, try a google search. You can always ask someone to help you if needed. Dave didn’t get selected to the BBWAA for not knowing the game. Do you even know what the BBWAA is?
As far as this post goes, you obviously don’t get it, which isn’t a surprise. If you had simply looked at last years plan, and the follow-up (which is far different than editing), you’d know what to expect this year.
Everyone involved with the posts on this site are respected for good reason. If they didn’t know what they were talking about, or didn’t have something substantial to offer, nobody would be here reading the articles or posting comments. They fact that they’ve opened the doors for all baseball fans (whom they don’t even know!) to be involved, says a lot.
Everyone’s free to post their opinions, ask questions, and debate facts. All you have to do is provide evidence to support your claims, and/or explain your reasoning. That’s not too much to ask. If you don’t like the way things operate, go away. Really, it’s that simple.
Funny you bring-up comedy gold as well. Your grammar’s certainly worth a few laughs.
Originally I signed up only to post corrections on “facts” that were being written. Strangely enough that just led to my posts being deleted and the articles being corrected.
Don’t worry man, I think any true Mariners fan knows who Dave is. I think it’s impossible to have followed the team over the years and not come across Dave. I still remember the goofy stuff he’d write in Google Groups.
I think you don’t get my post. I wasn’t criticizing Dave’s post; I defended it. I was pointing out how dumb it is to see him argue it with people on here. Even if he’s right, which in most cases here he is. I mean someone thought Melky would sign elsewhere on a 3 year incentives deal? LOL
I guess I need to provide some bad grammar to make your statement true. Them Mariners lookin’ awful good to finish in the middle of the division next year and maybe better if some of these guys on the farm do good. Happy now? Or maybe you died of laughter. My phone apologizes for autocorrecting things.
^OK, so let’s take another look at your comment.
“First, I must say that Dave is nothing more than a smart fan who gets off by knocking people in baseball that actually make a living off the game.”
You start your ‘defense’ of his post with a back-handed compliment. Maybe you didn’t intend that, but that’s the way it sounds.
“He puts this out there before the FA market has even had the smallest chance of being set. I’m sure in a month, 2 months, etc he will edit this as the market takes shape.”
How to you think that sounds?
“That said, how funny is it that ANYone can sign up to comment here, and Dave sits and argues with some of these people as if they are anymore qualified to comment on baseball than he is?”
That statement makes little sense.
If you weren’t trying to be sarcastic and insulting, I stand corrected, and apologize. But your comment didn’t sound like any kind of defense or praise. It sounded like criticism laced with sarcasm. Poor choice of wording.
What? Why not just repost everything I said? You cut out two important parts which completely change what I said. This is ridiculous. Also, this is an Internet blog. I’m not running for political office. But I also don’t need you editing what I say to turn my words around on me. Second sentence I wrote: “But I do give Dave props for writing this.” I have posted that again since you appear to be partially blind.
I wasn’t trying to be sarcastic. And I wasn’t trying to be insulting, although Dave may consider being called a “smart fan” an insult since he thinks so highly of himself. Since he’s so far above myself and every other baseball fan or coaching staff member in Seattle, surely he cares less what I think iof him, anyways.
^Adding the rest of the paragraph only makes it sound worse and it wasn’t needed for my point to be made. I didn’t manipulate anything you said.
Way to keep-up the back-handed compliments.
You win the argument! I concede almighty USSM reader! I now exit this thread in shame. Shame!
I still can’t believe Swisher signed for so little. And instead of having him play a corner OF spot, we traded away our best hitter for a worse corner OF. I’m embarassed to have be a GMZ supporter.
Interesting to look back on this now. A sound plan but unfortunately wouldn’t have put the Mariners any closer to contention than their actual path. Iwakuma was of course lights out and Swisher came in at a serviceable, if disappointing, 2.4 WAR. There is also addition by “non-addition” — not bringing in Morse, Saunders, etc. but that’s also pretty negligible. The rest is pretty much a wash. My takeaway is that building a winning team is pretty hard! I’m looking forward to Dave’s thoughts for 2014.