Some Amount of Words on Nick Swisher
(Yes, I’m beating this number of words headline thing into the ground. This giant amusement park does not exactly create an environment of creativity.)
Probably the biggest thing that has happened for the Mariners today happened in Boston. Well, it happened in Nashville, but it happened with Boston at least. The Red Sox gave Shane Victorino a three year, $38 million deal to take over as their new right fielder, and have now tossed a combined $77 million at Victorino and Mike Napoli. Let’s all send Ben Cherington a box of chocolates for his off-season shopping list, and wish him luck rebuilding by stocking up on older declining players.
The main Mariner-related fallout from Victorino going to Boston is that Nick Swisher will almost certainly not be going to Boston now. The Red Sox just filled their right field position, and Napoli is likely going to get enough time at first base that it would be tough for them to fit Swisher into that mix and give everyone enough playing time to make it all work. So, you can probably scratch Boston off the list of potential landing spots for Nick Swisher.
And, if you start looking around, it’s not so easy to find teams that are looking all that interested in making a large bid for Swisher. The Yankees are only offering one year contracts. The Tigers already signed Torii Hunter. The Braves signed B.J. Upton, and are looking more for a leadoff hitter in left field than another middle-of-the-order guy. The Rangers might keep Josh Hamilton, and even if they don’t, it sounds like the backup plan might include shifting Ian Kinsler to make room for Jurickson Profar, with a move to the outfield being a logical possibility. The Dodgers outfield is full.
You can go through pretty much any list of teams that were hunting for corner outfielders before the off-season started and cross off a good chunk of them, as they’ve already either made their move or have expressed a desire to look for lower cost alternatives. So, if Swisher is looking for a significant payday, it’s looking like Seattle might be his best chance to get it.
Which, of course, gives the M’s some pretty decent leverage. If they’re not having to outbid the Yankees or another high-revenue club, then the price is not going to be anywhere near the 7/100 pricetag I floated in my off-season plan. It might not even get anywhere near the 5/85 price that Andre Ethier got from the Dodgers over the summer. And so, if things continue to break the way they’re going right now, Swisher could end up being one of the bargains of the winter, signing for a four or five year deal at an AAV not too different from what Hunter and Victorino got. Without another team in the bidding to really push the Mariners, 4/60 or 5/75 may very well be enough to get Swisher signed.
So, while I know that there’s some frustration that the winter meetings are more than halfway over and the Mariners haven’t done anything, things are actually breaking the Mariners way right now. Once Hamilton goes off the board, it may become quite clear that Swisher’s only chance for a big payday is to take what the Mariners will give him, even if his actress-wife might not love the idea of living in Seattle.
Now, of course, none of this is set in stone. It’s entirely possible that the Orioles are just faking everyone out with their “we won’t spend big” this winter claims, and are looking at Swisher to upgrade their own outfield situation. Maybe the Indians are going to sign Swisher to play right field after they trade Shin-Soo Choo. Don’t go printing up your Swisher jerseys for the Mariners just yet.
But it’s more likely that he signs with the Mariners now than it was this morning. The Red Sox exiting the bidding is a pretty big deal, and by waiting out the market, the team might get a pretty good deal on the best outfielder on the market this winter.
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31 Responses to “Some Amount of Words on Nick Swisher”
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Nice article Dave. What is your opinion about the Bourn rumors?
First: Yaaaaay Swisher. Would LOVE to see him here. It seems like a perfect fit.
Second: I too would like a Davepinion on Bourn. A team with Bourn and Swish could really be fun to watch I think. We’d have to move around some of the younger outfielders then of course too, but could be worth it.
“Maybe the Indians are going to sign Swisher to play right field after they trade Shin-Soo Choo.”
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Hahahaha! I like what you did there, Dave. I wonder how Swisher’s actress wife will like Cleveland.
Very excited to have Swisher, especially at those prices. 4/60 would be great. Prefer Swisher to Bourn, all thing beings equal, because we won’t lose value from Guti(or even Saunders) by moving them to a corner position, as would have to do if Bourn signs. Swisher also plays 1B, and his flexibility there would be huge for our current roster construction.
I agree that getting Swisher would be ideal. But I would be hesitant to pencil Guti in for more than 300 abs.
You jinxed it, Dave. Olney now reporting via twitter that the O’s met with Swisher’s agents today.
Then again, they’re all in one spot. It’s just a meeting. Will be interesting to see what happens.
Ellsbury available according to Boston Herald.
@Stats I’m having a hard time being excited about that. I don’t think he’s as good as he’s perceived and he’s got one more year on his contract.
I also want to hear some opinions on Bourn!
ZIPS is projecting Swisher at .253/.349/.434 in a neutral park next year with a 2.7 WAR
Couldn’t Swisher also just negotiate a 1 year deal and try again next off season to get a bigger deal than 4/60 ot 5/75?
Ever see Major League? Remember Rachel Phelps? Natch.
I doubt Swisher would take a 1 year deal and turn down a longer term contract. That wouldn’t be very smart on his part.
I don’t know why, but I don’t share in the Swisher-crush that most folks have here. I have no statistical analysis to prove this, but I don’t see the numbers coming to Safeco Field with him. I’m sort of just OK with this idea. On the other hand, at least he’s not from the “scrapheap” pile.
I’m all in on Swisher. He just makes so much sense on our end. And since we have so much cash available, I’d like Bourne too, just not at his current price, however.
Or Justin Upton and Swisher. But I bet Arizona is looking for way too much in return for Upton.
This just makes it that much more affordable to go get Swisher AND Hamilton, naturally.
“Ellsbury available according to Boston Herald.”
Point being?
@ bubba, “I don’t know why, but I don’t share in the Swisher-crush that most folks have here. I have no statistical analysis to prove this, but I don’t see the numbers coming to Safeco Field with him.”
201 PA @ safeco .913 OPS.
SSS sure. #2/13 ballparks w/ 100 PA.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=swishni01&year=Career&t=b
If the Mariners sign Nick Swisher and Edwin Jackson on the same day, at the same time, one can only assume Dave and Sullivan will harmonize a crescendo of primal weirdness so powerful, Peter Gammons will feel it resonating in his loins.
Mariners are interested in Ibanez.
What a joke!
I want Swisher but Ima devil’s advocate:
Clever, clever Mariner fans. The Mariners are not the only team that sees Swisher as a potential bargain. Also, because he has some positional flexibility, and the 1B market is weak, he may have more suitors that we’re anticipating.
It helps that Boston took themselves out of the market, and enlarged the market by taking a center fielder. That said, the Victorino contract might drive Swisher’s price up, given their relative values.
Enough with being cheap! Lets do this now and do it right! Sign both Swisher and Bourn and send some pitching to K.C. for Myers. The fans deserve it after putting up with the last 7 years, the Mariners will be back in the pennant race, fans are fired up and it will be fun to watch Mariner baseball again!
I must be the only one that doesn’t care about Swisher signing. Not that he wouldn’t be an improvement over what we have. I’m just not convinced he’ll produce here. I said the same of Figgins and got shouted down.
“I’m just not convinced he’ll produce here.”
I was all for signing Swisher until I read this. If Terry, with his track record, isn’t convinced, then I’m not either.
Dobbs — I saw what you did there.
@Terry
Swisher’s career line at Safeco: .287 .375 .538.
Figgins’ career line at Safeco before joining the M’s: .262 .358 .311. Worth noting his numbers in 2005 were incredibly inflated all-around.
It’s really hard to imagine Swisher falling off the same way he did. Anything’s possible, but Figgins and Swisher are two very different types of hitters.
There’s nothing that alarms me regarding his ability to produce here.
“Peter Gammons will feel it resonating in his loins.”
Peter Gammons doesn’t have any loins…
“Peter Gammons will feel it resonating in his (JG Taylor Spink Award)?”
Better?
>Couldn’t Swisher also just negotiate a 1 year deal and try again next off season to get a bigger deal than 4/60 to 5/75?
I wouldn’t see him signing a 1 year deal with Seattle in hopes to build his value. This would however let him stay in NY for another season and then potentially resign there next season to a long term deal.
Oh, I’ve looked at the numbers Steve and I agree with you. They are not the same type of hitter and there is no reason to suppose Swisher will fall off a cliff.
My opinion is based on gut feeling alone. I’m no expert, have no track record and my opinions often do not follow the herd but I put them out anyway.
I’m don’t have 25 years experience as a professional coach.hehe
Just a fan that sometimes goes against the numbers that I believe in. This is one of those times.