Combatting Emotion With Facts, Part II
Dave · December 13, 2012 at 4:38 pm · Filed Under Mariners
(See part one of this series for a brief explanation of the point of these posts. Or read it just because Fact One is fun.)
Fact Number Two:
Last off-season, the Angels spent a combined total of $330 million to sign Albert Pujols, C.J. Wilson, and LaTroy Hawkins. The Rangers spent $116 million to sign Yu Darvish and Joe Nathan.
The Oakland Athletics are the reigning American League West Champions.
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19 Responses to “Combatting Emotion With Facts, Part II”
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Sample size: 1 division in 1 year
MD, are you implying that while year 1 of the Angels megaspend may have been a failure, those players are going to start to grow into their contracts?
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I’m implying that small sample sizes are usually thrown out or derided on more SABR-leaning sites like these, and yet Dave is using a similarly small sample to prove his point.
162 games seems like a reasonably large sample size to determine which teams are better than others. You can’t just say “1 is a small sample size” when it is a full year of 162 games, just like you can’t say that we lack the sample size to prove that Randy Johnson was a great pitcher because he only pitched for 1 career.
The point Dave was making is that you can’t just say ‘this team spent more money, so they are better’ because there are too many other factors in play.
Is a 162 game season a small sample?
But the point is actually being missed. The title says it all, “Combatting Emotion with Facts.” The facts are that the Mariners are in no worse position than they were yesterday and they have a small but measurable chance of doing well this year.
The point though is not really being addressed. Regardless of those facts….the fans are emotionally pissed. You’re not gonna fix that quickly with facts. You fix that with action and/or results.
It’s gonna take some time to talk folks in off the ledge. And it’s gonna take some action by the Mariners to make it last.
ThanatosK on December 13th, 2012 4:51 pm
The facts are that the Mariners are in no worse position than they were yesterday and they have a small but measurable chance of doing well this year.
That’s not the only way to state the facts. The fact is that the Mariners are in no better position than they were yesterday, which is last place in the AL West for the third consecutive year.
I’m not sure signing Hamilton would be the answer to that, but the Mariners have done nothing so far this offseason. I’m positive that’s not the answer.
Another fun fact:
The A’s were 7th in MLB in HR’s and the Giants were 8th in MLB in payroll, so obviously they aren’t bad things to have around.
Yeah, that is my point.
There is no salary cap, look at the Giants and Barry Zito, you can win with bad contracts but unless you are willing to take some gambles the Mariners are going to continue to be a non factor.
But the point is actually being missed. The title says it all, āCombatting Emotion with Facts.ā
No man, you’re the one who is missing the point. Re-read MD’s post again:
“small sample sizes are usually thrown out or derided on more SABR-leaning sites like these, and yet Dave is using a similarly small sample to prove his point.”
Countering going on 10 years of failure by citing one season’s results is not trotting out a fact to counter an emotion. It’s cherry-picking stats to try to ignore some obvious truths about the failings of this franchise.
Here’s another trope that gets trotted out in sabr circles: “judge the process, not the results”. You can’t say that time and again about other teams’ moves, or about things Z and Chuck and Howie have tried, and then point to the Angels and Rangers’ moves this past offseason as a failure, or the Angels getting a premium player this offseason.
Unless you’d like to line up for us how exactly going out and getting the best hitter on the planet and the best pitcher in free agency, in 2011, was somehow a flawed process on the part of the Angels.
Yes, but the A’s have Billy Beane who has proven he can find diamonds in the rough…the Mariners have yet to prove that.
“Countering going on 10 years of failure by citing one seasonās results is not trotting out a fact to counter an emotion. Itās cherry-picking stats to try to ignore some obvious truths about the failings of this franchise.
Hereās another trope that gets trotted out in sabr circles: ājudge the process, not the resultsā. You canāt say that time and again about other teamsā moves, or about things Z and Chuck and Howie have tried, and then point to the Angels and Rangersā moves this past offseason as a failure, or the Angels getting a premium player this offseason.”
Someone here gets it. And if 162 games is a large enough sample size, how about the 648 games in which Jack Z has compiled a worse won loss record than Bavasi? Why do Chuck and Howie still have jobs??
Mariners35: I’ll explain how the Angels 2011 offseason was bad process. They locked up a hitter whose plate discipline was declining by agreeing to pay him like an elite player through age 42. That’s fucking awful process. Just because you land a good player does not mean you have good process; likewise, signing a mediocre player for cheap is not necessarily bad process. You’re bashing the “trope” while missing the point entirely.
Dave: are you saying that because a team fails in its efforts for one particulsr season, that invalidates the attempt to improve by signing big free agents?
Why would any FA clearly close to the end of his career like Hamilton want to sign with an unproven rebuilding team, no matter how much the money? Why would any young FA power hitter who wants to have the stats to sign a second big FA contract want to play in a pitcher friendly park with a power suppressing climate for half the season? WE ARE NOT A DESTINATION FOR POWER HITTING FA’S! no matter what we pay, at this moment in time. We need high average guys who play fundamental baseball, pair them up with a power arm pitching staff led by Felix and we will contend. This year will be the year we see three or four guys make the jump that Seager (and to a lesser extent, Sanders) made and I am counting on Smoak and Ackley being two of them. On fact about fans is they return a lot faster than they leave. Once the winning starts, even without overpaid FA’s, the turnstyles will be humming again!
“And if 162 games is a large enough sample size, how about the 648 games in which Jack Z has compiled a worse won loss record than Bavasi?”
Because Jack Z totally inherited a good system from Bavasi. Why would the team be better when rebuilding than it was when it was piddling away assets for overpriced (in dollars or prospects), mediocre talent (Bedard, Silva, Washburn, Perez and Broussard, Bautista)? Please tell me. And if you can figure that out (and good luck), I’m sure small market GMs will listen. But yeah, please outline your plan and prove that it would work/would’ve worked, and back it up with numbers.
Wanna talk about bad processes?
The Mariners want to keep a healthy bottom line by cutting corners and nickel and diming. The Angels want to keep a healthy bottom line so they go out and sign a declining star to an elite player contract and then have a player to sell to FOX as the centerpiece of a 3 billion dollar TV deal that nets them in excess of 150 million for the next 17 years.
Man those Angels are really stupid.
> And if 162 games is a large enough sample size, how about the 648 games
> in which Jack Z has compiled a worse won loss record than Bavasi? Why
> do Chuck and Howie still have jobs??
Uh, because Bavasi inherited a good team and gutted it, while Zduriencik inherited a terrible team? Maybe Z would have a better record with the Ms if he’d come into the job with Shin-soo Choo, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Adam Jones on his roster?
Is this even a serious question?