Combatting Emotion With Facts, Part III
(Here is part one and part two)
Fact Number Three:
In 1998, the Mariners decided not to re-sign Randy Johnson, trading him mid-summer for three prospects. They were criticized for not doing what it takes to keep star players in Seattle.
In 1999, Ken Griffey Jr asked for a trade. He was tired of losing and decided he’d rather finish his career in Cincinnati. The Mariners were criticized for not doing what it takes to keep star players in Seattle.
In 2000, Alex Rodriguez became a free agent, and chose to sign with the division rival Texas Rangers. The Mariners were criticized for not doing what it takes to keep star players in Seattle.
The 1998 Mariners won 76 games with Johnson, Griffey, and Rodriguez. The 1999 Mariners won 79 games with Griffey and Rodriguez. The 2000 Mariners won 91 games with Rodriguez. The 2001 Mariners won 116 games without any of them.
This is what that pattern looks like in column form.
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@opiate82
Please tell me you’re joking, especially about Pence.
“Baker and his followers seem to want Seattle to overpay for talent, even though overpaying for talent (Sexson, Broussard, Perez, Bedard, Spiezio, Aurilia) is what got Seattle into this mess in the first place.”
– Winner for best post of the last couple hours…it is odd how we are always just supposed to ignore that the Mariners went down the route of overspending on players because it happened sooooo long ago (over four years ago!!!)
PS…yes I agree that this looks more and more like Geoff Baker’s blog…pretty sad.
I think Baker has turned his comments off and his rabid mob got lost here on their way to run the M’s out of town / lynch the front office.
Eponymous-
I agree with your points… I’m just voicing frustration with folks who think all we have to do is just decide to spend lots more money, and the best players show up in Mariners uniforms saying “let’s win this”. And if it doesn’t happen, somebody in the Mariner’s office is at fault.
Not that simple. (Which I know you already know, just sayin’ it out loud)
And just trying to “wet finger” out some fuses on the many anger bombs going off.
Sorry.
We all want better players. Reality just isn’t cooperating with the idea at the moment.
And at this point, with my wife’s school flying its flag at half mast, to honor the lives lost in Connecticut today, I’m letting go of thinking this is high on the list of important things going on in life at the moment.
Did they really “overpay” for Sexson, Spiezio, and Aurilia? It was just money, right? We didn’t give up players for them. At least it seemed that when Bavasi signed Sexson the Ms were actively trying to get better, and as for the other two, well, they took flyers on guys who were past their primes and they didn’t work out. And all three of them actually earned more the year before they played for the Ms, and Sexson actually had two pretty good years before he fell of the cliff. I don’t think I’d call what the Ms did with those three overpaying.
But for Broussard, Perez, and Bedard, absolutely, I couldn’t agree more. They gave away WAY too much. And that’s why I’m not in favor of trading away the prospects. I’m impressed with the prospects and, given the trading track record Jack Z. has sown, I’m not so sure I trust him to trade them.
Again, looking at the pre-Z history, there’s no real historical reason not to pay for a free agent hitter like Swisher, if they could get a four-year deal done.
And eponymous, I still prefer Swisher over Bourn.
Dave, you’re keeping me from plastering myself on the ceiling. But only by the slimmest margin. I appreciate the analysis, but it hurts to see good teams doing something (anything!) to make themselves better while our crappy team stands pat.
I make my season ticket decisions in real time based upon the information at hand. The mean I see the currently constituted Mariners regressing toward is ugly at best. Thus my financial enthusiasm is leading me toward other entertainment investments. I wish it were otherwise. I really do.
Help me, brother!
So yeah, I’m curious to hear what people disagree with about Z’s comments today (from the official Mariner website):
“Could I have made a trade (already)? Of course. But taking on cost and getting a player with less years of control and giving up your very strong assets, that’s fine if it makes a lot of sense. As I’ve said all along, I’m willing to trade apple for orange if it makes us better. But I’m not willing to trade two apples for one orange, and that’s what we’ve been seeing.”
“I know people are anxious and you can get to a point where you feel you have to do something,” he said, “but you only have to do something if it’s the right thing from a baseball standpoint. You can’t do something that just looks good in the newspaper the next morning. It has to be sound and fair value for fair value.
“I’ll do that any time of the day,” he said. “I think we’ve shown that, but dealing with someone who wants to ‘win’ a deal with you, that’s not an avenue I want to go down. I want a deal that helps both of us and is fair. I’m not going to be held up by giving away what I’d consider strong assets when we’re in the middle of this whole building process and can see the light at the end of the tunnel. To abandon that now would be foolish.”
He also talks about being “out in front” of the Hamilton negotiations, and surprised where he ultimately signed. He states directly that he was impressed by the front office’s support, and said that ownership stepped up and were aggressive with their offer (rumored to be, with options/incentives, up to 6 years/$150 million).
If true, we outbid the Angels, and lost.
And just like the Angels, we would have made him only the 3rd MLB player ever to average $25+ million a year.
There’s our cheap, non-committed front office, for ya.
>The Dreeze
Sorry, I just browsed through the comments, and the majority of comments seemed to be disagreeing with Dave with no facts or basis, just pure emotion/hate.
The returns from the Johnson trade were pretty epic, and the money saved helped to build the 2001 juggernaught.
http://sodomojo.com/2012/07/29/kings-cost-a-lot/
@Don
Ever heard of splits? Try looking at Swisher’s.
“Did they really “overpay” for Sexson, Spiezio, and Aurilia? It was just money, right?”
– Ya…spending a bunch of money on players meaning they have to play instead of another player (since your resources are tied to that player) isn’t relevant at all…
People act as if there are an unlimited amount of positions out there so it doesn’t matter if you have some filled by bad players.
Gar wrote: “To turn to your point above, then: in my opinion we are not yet in a position to *know* whether this front office is comparable to the teams you mentioned. Yes, Z and his crew have presided over four seasons, three of them huge disappointments (though with notable win-total increases every year since the cratering of 2010). But before the Rays, As, and Twins became what they did, remember that each of them suffered through multiple years of horrible or sub-par performance at the beginning of the regimes that ultimately built them into consistent winners, and the Ms current front office arguably started farther from the goal line than any of those organizations when the “good” GMs took them over.”
I think this is a good point. While yes, I am frustrated and am disappointed by the progress so far, and thought both Smoak and Montero were low for what we gave up, Z does deserve more of a chance than he’s had so far. It would be nice if he had some resources to work with, but point noted that yes, we don’t “know” if Z can do the job yet or not.
stevemotivateir: Please tell me you’re joking, especially about Pence.
Look at what Pence did once he became a Giant. Other than some ra-ra speeches, he contributed virtually nothing to their World Series run.
So, rumor has it that legalizing pot was the reason Hamilton didn’t come to Seattle– it was just too much of a temptation.
(Of course, the rumor was started just now… by me.)
The Mariners still had Edgar Martinez, Jay Buhner, Ichiro and Bret Boone providing plenty of offense.
Pitching and timely hitting win a World Series title. But plenty of hitting and timely pitching are just as good.
@opiate82
If you can set-up a Bay-for-Pence swap, I’m sure you’d find no resistance from anyone here.
“The front office isn’t just cheap. It’s also stubborn, dishonest (intellectually), inept, and just plain stupid when it comes to baseball acumen. Stop pretending they’re doing us all a favor by owning a franchise.”
Truer words were never spoken.
Posey – Zunino
Belt – Montero
Scutaro – Ackley
Crawford – Ryan
Sandavol – ?
Pence – Bay (do you really even want a Pence?)
Pegan – Gutierrez
Blanco – Wells
Cain – Hernandez
Lincecum – Walker
Vogelsong – Hultzen
Bumgarner – Paxton
Zito – (Shouldn’t be hard to find a Zito)
Bullpens – More or less equal
You would have to be using opiates to believe these are equal comparisons. “Bullpens – more or less equal”?? Have you ever seen any San Francisco Giants games?
“- Team stealthily cuts payroll. Fans bitch.”
You forgot the “team stealthily increases season ticket prices while simultaneously stealthily cutting payroll” part of this equation. I’ve got co-workers who have been season ticket holders for 10+ years in a pool. I’ve never seen the level of vitriol directed at the Mariners as I have this offseason because of the way they handled their price increase combined with their seeming willingness to stand pat and do nothing. Several members of the pool have bailed, and the rest are probably out after this year.
It’s one thing to go young, spend less, and try to build with kids. It’s another thing entirely to jack up prices and treat your best customers like shit when you do that. I don’t know what the right answer is when it comes to spending $ on free agents. But it’s pretty obvious that the M’s are burning bridges with a lot of people who have spent a lot of money on this team for a long time. That’s not a good sign, and that’s something they had better start to fix.
So yeah, I’m curious to hear what people disagree with about Z’s comments today (from the official Mariner website):
It’s not so much “disagree”, it’s “here comes the spin as to why Jason Bay is our team’s headline acquisition coming into spring training, if it ends up that way”.
Also, it appears the light at the end of the tunnel is an oncoming train of “your organization is such a joke other teams can lowball your bid and still sign your targeted free agents- they don’t even want your money now”, if you take the interpretation of what the front office is saying seriously.
Saying “well, we’ll win as many games we can games the RIGHT way, with our kids and developing the team, and we’ll wait for another shot in
2011201220132014″ has gotten old with a fan base that hasn’t had a meaningful game in September for a decade- not just “no playoffs”, but “no pennant race”, either. Right now, a lot of the fanbase is in a mood similar to this about the excuses of “we’re trying and we’re doing things the right way”- they don’t care about the excuses, they just want to get it done. (I have to wonder at what point “third place is you’re fired” comes in- though in this case it’s fourth, isn’t it?)You forgot the “team stealthily increases season ticket prices while simultaneously stealthily cutting payroll” part of this equation. I
Yeah, they’ve been doing that for a while, with “premium games” and so on.
Oh noes! The sky is falling! The team failed to give an aging outfielder with a crappy swinging strike rate a 5th year! Whatever shall we do! I mean besides not bemoan the fact that we have another Chone Figgins situation in 3 years! Not signing this guy is “burning bridges”! That makes 100% sense in my world, trust me on this one!
The real point here is, while a guy like Albert Pujols can basically replace anyone, anywhere and be a plus player, the same is not necessarily the case for Hamilton, and the fact is that the Mariners are still not really at a point where they can say “okay, we have holes here, here, and here that need to be plugged”. I think we can reasonably expect to have to get a corner OF because there doesn’t seem to be a lot of that in the system and the better hitting prospects – I’m thinking of Nick Franklin and Stefen Romero in particular – don’t really project to the corner OF slots. I’d even go so far as to say that I think the team should assume it’ll need to fill both corner OF slots – the chances of Gutierrez lasting a whole season, let alone be a guy the M’s can rely on in the future, strikes me as wishful thinking.
Still, it’s not a completely gone-for thing that the team must have a Josh Hamilton quality player. If, for instance, Justin Smoak gets on track (I’m not optimistic there either but it could happen), Jesus Montero could hit well enough to justify being a full-time DH (I’m a lot more optimistic about that), and Vinnie Catricala could play into a corner OF slot. Suddenly, you’ve got one spot available, and that probably for a guy who is rangy enough afield that he could either be the starting CF or at least spell Condor a game or two a week at the position.
Either way, when people look at the team and think “2014” they’re not thinking “2014 unless the M’s make a REAL SPLASH in free agency”, they’re thinking “by next offseason the team really should know what it has and what it doesn’t have”. The only justification I can see for giving Hamilton all that money is that you’re paying him for what he can do now and maybe next year (even then, I don’t think he’s a 5 win player anymore, but anyway). How on Earth would this be a good move for Seattle?
Love these posts, Dave. They are an awesome reality check.
Only disagreement — Junior did not leave because he was tired of losing. His decision was not baseball-related.
It’s not the amount of money the M’s spend, it’s the moves the M’s make. The A’s started 8 different guys at 1B and 5 at catcher, 3 or 4 at SS until someone won the job. We basically started Smoak with no one really pushing him. No competition at SS with the M’s. Ackley didn’t have a good year, no one on his heels. We carry nobody back-ups, making for lack of competition. I feel our lack of depth with experienced major leaguers gives the younger players too much comfort. I know the kids have to play in order to see what you got, but at the same time they need to produce. Get some experienced depth in this place. I say get the best players we can get and let the best man win the job, no matter the position. Need another good starter or two also.
Um yeah. Nice article but it seems to miss out on key points. The Mariner team without any of them had some very good players. When the M’s tied the most-wins in a season, I believe they used a rotation that were playing above their heads and a lineup that contributed.
Today’s Mariners are a mess. We are still feeling the hurt of the Bavasi era. Keeping him for so long only made the M’s a bigger joke.
Sadly, the Mariners have been a nightmare over the last few years. There are signs things might get better but there is no certainty. I’ve been a fan since 1989 and I cannot remember a time where I had less interest in the team. 🙁
Still, it’s not a completely gone-for thing that the team must have a Josh Hamilton quality player. If, for instance, Justin Smoak gets on track (I’m not optimistic there either but it could happen), Jesus Montero could hit well enough to justify being a full-time DH (I’m a lot more optimistic about that), and Vinnie Catricala could play into a corner OF slot.
The problem is that Catricala was pretty bad last year in AAA (so promoting him is about the same as promoting Peguero, and likely to work out the same way), Montero is nowhere near a lock to be very good real soon, and Smoak has a history of failure.
A strategy that doesn’t try and add talent when and where there’s some pretty obvious organizational holes, that tries to pass off Jason Bay as a significant signing… well, let’s just say this is why the M’s have been pathetic on offense and at the gate. People are sick of reclamation projects and kids who don’t work out.
Either way, when people look at the team and think “2014? they’re not thinking “2014 unless the M’s make a REAL SPLASH in free agency”, they’re thinking “by next offseason the team really should know what it has and what it doesn’t have”.
In 2014, the M’s will have Felix on the last year of his deal, unless he gets extended before then. And let’s say the M’s go through 2013 with a bad offense, OK enough pitching, some good kids, some bad kids, and 78ish wins, (so maybe a little bit of progress on last year) but nowhere near contention. In other words, it’s November-December 2013 and we are once again looking at holes at 1B/DH and corner positions and a team that made Seattle collectively yawn.
Wouldn’t we have already known we had those problems in 2013?
So I guess your answer is “wins by upgrading at 1B/DH in 2013 are too expensive, let’s keep plodding ahead and let the farm system produce”.
I think you should be able to see why this isn’t a very attractive option. It may be more attractive than a dumb trade, but it’s not like Jack’s won a lot of those lately like he won the Putz deal.
Since 2008 the salaries in MLB have gone up by 10%. In contrast, the Mariners payroll in 2012 decreased by 28%. Adjusted for the salary increase, this amounts to $44.5M less in payroll. In contrast, the Angels payroll has increased by 27%, the Rangers by 78.5% and the A’s by 10%.
Over that same time attendance has decreased as the product on the field has been poor. It has lagged to the point where getting free agents to sign in Seattle is difficult, at best. Is Z trying his best? Yes, I am sure he is. The problem was not the poor signings. Every team has them. Ask the Giants about Zito. The problem is the lack of continued investment in the team, and commitment in terms of investment to be competitive. I’m sure we’ll invest next year when Figgins and Guti come off the books!
The other opinion on this thread was we have great young players in our farm system. The first wave of top 10 prospects in MLB already hit the big club. Smoak has been a disaster, Ackley, disappointing, and Montero, OK. Maybe they will get better, maybe they won’t. But I doubt that any of them are going to be superstars. So to think that the next wave of prospects is going to change the face of the team is possible, but far from a sure thing. Kinda like free agency, a risk. At least Hamilton and other free agents have proven their worth over time. I especially like the comments related to age at the end of the contract. That’s kinda what it is when players hit the free agent market. They’ve gone through the years of club control and established themselves. What age group do you think you will get in free agency?
I’ll also be mildly (though not hugely) disappointed if the Mariners don’t bag *someone* at outfield, just because like I said it is a pretty obvious place to upgrade. That being said, I’m very happy that someone isn’t Josh Hamilton, and I’m ecstatic that that someone who isn’t Josh Hamilton isn’t signing for 5 years and $125M. The past 2 years he’s been worth 4-4.5 WAR, which indicates that there’s a much better than even chance that you’re already overpaying for him in year 1. The way these contracts work, you expect to overpay for a guy in later years but in return when you actually sign the guy you either get a discount or at the very least you pay for his actual value.
On the one hand, he did a horrible job in CF last year for the Rangers and the Angels aren’t going to repeat that mistake, so there’s one potential reason why he might actually be worth the first year of the contract. On the other hand, he did nothing after June and his swinging strike rates have been ballooning for a few years now and have now reached Miguel Olivo stages. Could he continue to be very productive with that trend continuing? Sure, but I don’t think you should count on it.
That being said, I would like to see Nick Swisher or Michael Bourn come here. Actually, to the last guy I think he could be a potential steal even as the Geoff Bakers and Seattle sports talk guys whinge about the team not getting a “proven RBI guy”. If you add Bourn hoping he can man Death Valley with a healthy Gutierrez, that’s an optimistic goal but just as likely he’d wind up being the regular CF as Guti misses 3/4 of the season again, or just isn’t effective when he does play.
But the bottom line is: in the specific case of Josh Hamilton, no thank you. This isn’t a “I don’t think the M’s should spend money this offseason” post, this is a “I don’t think the M’s should spend money on Josh Hamilton” post.
That being said, I would like to see Nick Swisher or Michael Bourn come here. Actually, to the last guy I think he could be a potential steal even as the Geoff Bakers and Seattle sports talk guys whinge about the team not getting a “proven RBI guy”
Actually…
http://blogs.seattletimes.com/mariners/2012/12/13/who-who-who-whos-left-for-mariners-now-that-josh-hamilton-is-off-the-table/
Baker is pretty positive about Bourn. I think he undersells Swisher a bit (given that Swisher could swing to 1B), but it’s clear that Baker isn’t OMG DINGERS11!!!!!!11
Dave, all good points. No preemptive panicking.
But if the Mariners end up achieving nothing more than Jason Bay, legitimate frustration will be warranted.
Regardless what Dave has said about keeping our motions in check, it is really difficult for me as a fan to rationalize paying increasing ticket prices (yes the ticket prices are again going up this year) for the type of product that the Mariners are running out there. If they want my money, I want their money spent.
Z- I want Swisher and one of Bourn/Laroche/Other big bat signed by the start of spring training. Make it happen… The same lame excuses are getting old.
Swisher meeting with Cleveland today. Apparently, he and Ichiro weren’t close on the Yankees.
If the M’s were going to shell out $25 mil a year for Hamilton why not try and sign BOTH Swisher and Bourn for around that yearly figure?
Bourn/Swisher/Saunders or Guti OF would be very good defensively. Offense goes way up with those two players in the fold.
Maybe we then deal Guti to fill a need elsewhere. Or clear Guti’s salary to fit those two players.
Of move Guti and sign Swisher/Bourn/Edwin Jackson. All three of those players make the M’s a ton better now and fit long-term as well.
Goes with the idea of spreading the money around versus putting all the eggs in one basket.
There really seems to be no reason why the Mariners wouldn’t have the money to spend it on two big players. Like I said, I am getting sick of the same lame excuses. Us fans do not need a yes man from the GM position. We need a GM who is not afraid to step up and make the decision needed to field a competetive team. Another year of inept offense is going to drive me into Mariner fandom hiding.