Mariners Swap Jason Vargas for Kendrys Morales
Sometimes, there’s a trade that makes so much sense in retrospect, you wonder why we didn’t all see it coming. This is one of those trades.
With the signing of Josh Hamilton, the Angels had too many position players, and one had to go. They still needed another pitcher, though, since the back of their rotation was kind of terrible, and they wanted an innings-eater who would just give them reliable starts and take away the potential for disaster. From that sense, trading Kendrys Morales for Jason Vargas makaes perfect sense for the Angels.
For the Mariners, Morales isn’t quite as perfect of a fit, since he doesn’t play the outfield, and they really need an outfielder. But, since they’re apparently not in the market for Nick Swisher, they also needed someone who could handle 1B/DH responsibilities, so that the team didn’t have to depend on Justin Smoak and Jesus Montero hitting again next year. With Morales in the mix, those two are now kind of fighting for one full-time job, though if the team uses Montero as a catcher against lefties, they can end up splitting 800 plate appearances instead of 600.
Both Morales and Vargas are useful pieces with some obvious flaws. We know Vargas’ flaws, so let’s talk about Morales. He’s a switch-hitter with some power, but he’s also too aggressive at the plate and has a pretty lengthy injury history. He missed most of 2010 and all of 2011 after breaking his leg in a home plate celebration (against the M’s), and then he wasn’t as good in his return last year as he was before he got hurt. His contact rate was a career low and his swing percentage was a career high, which are likely related, so Morales only posted a .320 on base percentage. His power makes him a useful hitter, but he’s more good-than-great at the plate, and as a first baseman, that makes him something like an average player overall.
Of course, the Mariners can get a lot better by replacing “horrible” with “average”, and Morales gives them the ability to run out a lot less “horrible” next year. If 1B/DH is a job share between Smoak, Montero, and Morales, they might even get decent production out of those two spots, and this still gives them the flexibility to let Smoak and Montero try and live up to their potential. Rather than flushing one of them down the drain, this gives the team more options. That’s good.
The problem is that swapping an average pitcher for an average hitter doesn’t really make the team any better, because they don’t have an average pitcher just hanging out waiting to step into Jason Vargas’ shoes. They already needed a starting pitcher to replace Blake Beavan, and now they need one to replace Vargas too. Since it’s already late December, a lot of the interesting starters are already off the board, so moving Vargas increases the chances the team goes into 2013 with a guy like Beavan or Paxton as one of the starting five, and there’s no reason to think that either of them are likely to be any good next year. So, the M’s upgraded at 1B/DH by about the same amount that they downgraded as SP.
They have better SP prospects than 1B/DH prospects, and it’s probably easier to sign an SP to play in Safeco than to sign a hitter to play in Safeco, so it’s a trade worth making. Plus, this will hopefully calm the legion of fans who don’t understand that there’s more to winning baseball than home runs, so that’s a nice side benefit. I think this is a nice little deal for the Mariners, but I’m not sure it actually makes them better just yet. It gives them a better chance to improve, if they go sign a pitcher to replace Vargas, but if they just hand Beavan a rotation spot, then this is probably a neutral trade from a wins perspective.
In the long term, this trade probably doesn’t matter too terribly much. If Morales has a great year, he might not be worth re-signing as a free agent next year, since his skillset is usually overvalued in free agency. If doesn’t have a great year, the Mariners might not want him back. I wouldn’t be shocked if this turned into a one year rental. But Vargas was probably a one year rental too, so, yeah.
This helps the Angels more than it helps the Mariners, but it probably helps the Mariners a bit too. Especially if they go sign a couple of starting pitchers. Let’s hope they do that too.
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64 Responses to “Mariners Swap Jason Vargas for Kendrys Morales”
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I was just saying the same thing you and others already said, shortbus.
And my iPad keeps wanting to autocorrect your username to “short us”.
Maybe we can corner the DH market and make another deal when our record is 45-59 for another prospect. Another horrific trade, at least it will be fun seeing Vargas get doused with champagne in October.
Plus, Morales may end up netting a compensation pick after this season as well.
Is this true? I remember hearing the new CBA prohibits newly traded rentals from netting their new teams compensation picks.
Or was that only if they are traded mid season??
The Angels have replaced Grienke and Morales with Vargas and Hamilton. Are they better or worse?
Probably something like a push overall but they’re spending 33+ next year on those two players for the privilege of not improving.
I like this trade. Morales was miscast with the Angels. He’s not a Scioscia type player. His worst suit is his baserunning and Scioscia doesn’t exactly play to a player’s strengths. As long as Wedge isn’t asking Morales to stretch a double into a triple or “test” the OFers arm on a regular basis much of Morales’ weaknesses could be mitigated.
That’s only if traded during the season.
Actually they replace Greinke, Morales and Hunter with Vargas and Hamilton. Not much of an upgrade if you ask me.
Angels also lost Haren, Santana, and Walden and got Tommy Hansen, Joe Blanton, and Sean Burnett. They are still good, but I wouldn’t necessarily say better than last year.
I’ve been wondering.. am I the only one that thinks the Angels are crazy for playing Bourjos in center over Trout?
You people really don’t know shit, do you?
Anyway…
You think THAT’S crazy, check out who their regular left fielder was last year. Bourjos is probably a better CFer than Trout, but it’s not by a huge margin. Trout is going to be awesome regardless of which OF position he’s playing.
“Steve – you have to give up something to get something and as you go on to mention SP’ing seems easier for the M’s to get.”
Yeah, no kidding, but aiding a division rival to do so? Think the Angels are threatened with Morales being in a Mariners uniform?
I really don’t have a problem with this trade but I’m really stumped trying to figure Z out this offseason….I guess we are just hoping that Morales and Bay can rekindle 2009……who else is available that was good in 09???
LOL at the people questioning if the Angels are better. Their pen is a world better and the guys they dumped, Haren, Santana, Izturis, Hawkins, Walden, were all horrible for them last year. Hunter had a great season but its not often that players coming off a career year at age 37 repeat their performances so yes.. Hamilton is a huge upgrade. Grienke is their big loss but he was only there for two months.
Why can’t we just be happy we got better instead of trying to pretend the Angels arent better than they were.
Morales posted a 120 OPS last year, he doesn’t need to repeat his 2009, he’s already the best full time bat on the roster.
We’re still talking about Jason Vargas, right?
Look, as much as this was a lateral move for the Mariners, it was a lateral move for the Angels. They don’t get better losing Morales and gaining Vargas. You could argue they also receive the benefit of not having Trumbo in the outfield, but the Mariners also benefit by not having Vargas’ effectiveness reduced by SafeCo’s new dimensions. It’s a wash, really.
Of the two players, tho, Morales has the better chance of being an above league average player. Vargas would have to drastically change in order to be more valuable than history has shown; Morales just has to be healthy.
Because Vargas with a halo is the apocalypse, or something.
Because they aren’t? Hamilton is an upgrade over Hunter, but only by a couple of wins (unless he goes berserk on the league again); they lose a couple for Morales and get a couple back for Vargas; and lose Greinke and Haren and gain Hunter and Blanton.
Assuming everything would go as predicted, the team is just about the same as it was last season in terms of wins.
“Look, as much as this was a lateral move for the Mariners, it was a lateral move for the Angels. They don’t get better losing Morales and gaining Vargas.”
Yeah, you missed the point. Seattle doesn’t have a surplus of ML-ready arms to replace Vargas. The Angels have plenty of options with bats, so no, they don’t offset.
“Vargas would have to drastically change in order to be more valuable than history has shown”
You mean, like what his splits show at Angels Stadium? He’s been great there.
You may not be that big on Vargas, but he’s put up good numbers at Safeco AND Angels Stadium. This move addressed their one need, while we still remain short. That was the added point about the Morales not threatening the Angels being in a Mariners uniform. It will take more than Morales.
“Hamilton is an upgrade over Hunter, but only by a couple of wins (unless he goes berserk on the league again)”
Yeah, try looking at the WAR for Hunter and Hamilton again. Hunter was worth more last year.