Mike Carp –> Boston
The M’s had until Thursday to work out a deal for recently DFA’d 1B/LF Mike Carp, and they seemed to be taking their time because multiple teams were interested. Milwaukee’s rash of injuries made them a potential buyer, and Toronto looked likely given that they’re a contender with real problems at 1B. Tampa might have been interesting, Houston’s still just trying to accumulate warm bodies, and Boston had been interested in Carp for months. This morning, the M’s finally selected the highest bidder, and in return for sending Carp to the Red Sox the M’s get… a PTBNL or cash, according to Ken Rosenthal.
Sure, we don’t yet know who the PTBNL is, as that is the definition of the acronym PTBNL, but the ‘or cash’ thing really sets your sights lower. I obviously wasn’t a party to these negotiations, but it’s odd that the M’s weren’t able to get more for Carp – either by packaging him with Shawn Kelley or just on his own. Interest from multiple teams doesn’t mean *strong* interest from multiple teams and all, but it’s nearly impossible to argue that Carp’s designation didn’t affect his value. A team who wants Carp could, theoretically, offer little and hold firm, knowing that the M’s would lose him for nothing in a matter of days. Obviously, interest from more than one team – especially a team that doesn’t have an early waiver claim – should ameliorate that, but it’s hard to see evidence that it did in this case.
Boston gets a left-handed hitter without extreme platoon splits and projections in the 1-1.5 WAR range for 2013. The Red Sox have a LF who’s easily worse defensively than Carp, and a 1B/DH with a degenerative hip condition, so Carp figures to get some playing time.
Why not plan ahead and trade these guys before killing their value?
I was never as sold on Carp as a lot of you are, but – I wish him success in Boston. He seems like a good guy.
There are certainly worse places for a defensively challenged left fielder to land.
With multiple suitors supposedly interested, it’s curious that Boston was able to leverage us intoa bag of balls for Carp. I know a player on waivers puts his team in a very low leverage position to begin with, but this “haul” or lack thereof suggests the ‘other interested teams’ weren’t actually interested at all if it was going to cost them anything of value whatsoever.
This is probably one of those situations where Seattle gets to pick from a short list of options if Carp makes the Red Sox out of Spring Training. If he doesn’t make the club, Seattle probably gets the cash compensation.
I’d expect Carp to make the club and the return will likely be mildly interesting.
What a waste.
If he is healthy, Carp makes the club, and could put up big numbers in Fenway. I don’t blame Z for dealing Carp and Kelley…but so far the return is not impressive.
A waste of what? Was he that valuable than any thing less than top return is a waste? He wasn’t going anywhere on our roster, let him go, wish him luck, and move on.
Carp clearly didn’t have a spot on the roster, so the trade was inevitable. I think a lot of us are just surprised that the M’s weren’t able to capitalize on the interest so many reported.
This is an interesting data point in the cost to a player’s trade value a DFA is. Shawn Kelley was another.
Prediction: Carp produces at least 1 WAR more value than Smoak in 2013.
I wouldn’t call it a waste yet. Like wsm said, cash is usually a contingency in these deals – if the PTBN proves to be damaged goods while the M’s perform their due diligence, if Carp is injured or fails to make the roster, etc.
Bottom line is Carp isn’t very good. Regardless what you think about the guys on the roster, Carp wasn’t going to be one of them. Nothing to cry over. Wish him well and hope that the Ms get something useful in return. It’s not like they were trading a good player and are getting burned in a deal.
Packaging Carp and Kelley was never realistic. Not only does it depend on finding a trading partner whose needs coincidentally match up with both players’ skills, it also requires the other team to be in a position to create not just one but two open 40-man slots, which basically eliminates every team in the league at this time of year.
That’s true, Mike. No team has open 40-man spots at this point, but given injuries and the amount of roster churn going on (Scott Cousins or Sandy Rosario getting picked up and dropped almost weekly), it’s not entirely crazy. Just unlikely. No team has an open spot, but every team has a few spots that they’d open up if the right opportunity presented itself.
I would prefer to have Carp than Bay or Ibanez. At least Carp still has some potential.
Bay and Ibanez still have potential also. Potential to land on the DL.
But I guess that veteran intangible leadership clubhouse presence thing is a factor.
The team could have not signed Ibanez, kept Carp and, there you go, cash considerations in savings.
But whatever, not a big deal. Good for Mike to go to a place where he might some playing time.
I would take Carp over Ibanez or Bay from a talent standpoint and age standpoint (veteran leadership factors not included). I have a feeling Carp will be a solid playera and the M’s may regret punting him for basically nothing.
djw said:
“Prediction: Carp produces at least 1 WAR more value than Smoak in 2013.”
[Bongo] I’d go further. I’d predict that Carp ends up making the Red Sox roster out of spring training and that he spends at least 3 years on the team – during which he outproduces Smoak by at least 5 WAR. During that time, he will be in contention for selection to the All-Star team at least once.
Well, this doesn’t sound like a very good deal. I just hope Carp isn’t a Mike Morse case. Maybe we can pay a much higher price to have Mike return to Seattle in a couple of years!
Geoff Baker reports that the M’s are deciding between four low-level, “non-premium” players in the Boston system.
Toronto has real problems at 1B. Did Edwin get suspended/injured? What did I miss?
Maybe one of the four ‘low end prospects’ Boston has offered is the shining piece of “quartz in the rough” we’ve been searching for…
Adam Lind had more games at 1B than Encarnacion, who was primarily a DH. Still, not the best choice, given that they’ve got David Cooper in the wings.
Sorry to see Carp go, but he only had brief periods of production. If one of Boston’s low level players can push one of ours up the minors, then it’s worth it.
At least Carp will get some more playing time in Beantown.
“Prediction: Carp produces at least 1 WAR more value than Smoak in 2013.”
If Smoak had gone the other way, he’d probably produce more WAR than Carp would here. All else being equal, it’s simply easier to hit in Fenway, and it’s even more apparent with power hitters like Carp and, theoretically, Smoak.
WAR factors in park factors, therefore the effect of park is essentially moot.
But Carp fits in Boston, for sure.
And now it is Smoak’s job. But at least 1B/DH isn’t the hardest position to fill.
1B is Smoak’s job as much as 3B was Figgins’ job last year. That is, it’s his job until it isn’t. My prediction is that Morales becomes our everyday First Baseman by June, Morse and Ibanez get a lot of ABs at DH, and that Smoak spends time in Tacoma once again.
If Smoak had gone the other way, he’d probably produce more WAR than Carp would here. All else being equal, it’s simply easier to hit in Fenway, and it’s even more apparent with power hitters like Carp and, theoretically, Smoak.
Like any worthwhile statistic that purports to measure offensive value, WAR accounts for park effects. If you want to argue that current park effect methodology doesn’t accurately adjust for hitters in Fenway, you are free to do so, but it’s your burden of proof.
Makes me wonder, in a case like this where the return for a player is going to be minimal anyway, if the M’s base their final trading decision on what team would give the soon-to-be-former Mariner the best opportunity?
It would be nice to think they do.
One of the important elements in Carp’s situation is that he is out of options; whatever team acquires him must also clear space on their 40-man roster to add him, and if he doesn’t make the 25-man active roster he has to go through waivers once again before he can be assigned to a minor league team.
Since at this stage of the season all teams have filled their rosters, it isn’t simply a matter of a team adding talent when acquiring Carp; they must also figure on removing someone from their eventual 25-man roster if they are going to keep Carp.
That greatly limits the value for Carp. It’s not solely a question of what WAR Carp might bring; you also need to deduct that WAR from whomever Carp might bump off that team’s 25-man roster.
Steve’s got it there; Carp’s biggest problem is his lack of options.
It does confound me that Carp didn’t bring a better offer. Even thought DFA = must trade or lose, multiple teams interested should bring a reasonable return.
Since at this stage of the season all teams have filled their rosters, it isn’t simply a matter of a team adding talent when acquiring Carp; they must also figure on removing someone from their eventual 25-man roster if they are going to keep Carp.
This is why I don’t understand why they didn’t trade him sooner. Keeping him on the active roster seemed to be roughly plan E or F; hardly seems hanging on to him until mid-February is worth it. (Of course, they’d have been smarter to just give him Ibanez’s roster spot and re-purpose the 2.5 million dollars, but whatever).
I think it’s the MO of most front offices to horde and preserve their depth at all costs until they absolutely must let go. If they try to trade Carp in November, then Ibanez has a snowblower accident in February and Morales cuts his finger making a sandwich, and suddenly you are reaching into AA or the waiver wire to fill your major league roster.
The other thing is that most teams probably view Carp as they type of player that can be acquired or replaced rather easily on an as-needed basis. Four years of control is great, but no options, below average defensive profile on the wrong side of the defensive spectrum, and frankly, spotty offensive production for a 1B/LF.
I mean, even the Red Sox are trying to allocate their resources efficiently. They have a pile of players who will compete with Carp in spring training (Nava, Sweeney, Overbay), all of who bring strengths and weaknesses to the table. There is a greater than 0% chance that Carp doesn’t make the cut, if they really like what they see out of Overbay at 1B, or want someone who can cover CF in a pinch (Sweeney), or prefer a switch hitter with stronger OBP-skills (Nava).
They’ll probably get a decent lottery ticket from A-ball, and what’s so wrong about that really.
And there is flaw in thinking that a combo deal with Kelley would have yielded superior talent. Most ML rosters don’t have 2 open spaces, much less 1. You would have had to find a team that needed 2 fringe players, a reliever and a 1B/LF. Kelley would have had no room whatsoever on the Red Sox, for example. You would have got $0.25 on the dollar if you tried to include him in the deal. So perhaps the best way to maximize the value was to approach each player separately as a trade chip.
Players with Carp’s profile are also pretty easily found – there’s no shortage of power hitting, defensively challenged 1b/DH types hanging out in AAA ball every season, hoping for a call-up. Carp is probably rated a tick or two higher than that, so he was able to generate a bit of value in trade.
But even without the roster squeeze he didn’t have much value. If the Mariners had tried to trade him earlier in the season the most they would have gotten back was someone comparable at a different position, and then the team would be looking at the same roster squeeze, just at a different position.
Players with Carp’s profile are also pretty easily found – there’s no shortage of power hitting, defensively challenged 1b/DH types hanging out in AAA ball every season, hoping for a call-up. Carp is probably rated a tick or two higher than that, so he was able to generate a bit of value in trade.
But even without the roster squeeze he didn’t have much value.
Exactly that. AAAA 1B types that profile as below-average 1B/DHs that would profile to 1ish WAR are not particularly hard to find (unless you’re not a very good GM). Neither are decent bullpen arms, for that matter. So neither Carp nor Kelley was going to bring a lot back, even added together. A couple of marginal, mildly interesting prospects to add to the farm system for depth sounds about right.
What would you trade to acquire Mike Carp? Would you trade Walker? Of course not. And neither will Boston or anyone else. Walker is a Mariner product they can’t. But they aren’t going to give a similar talent either. Z realized this and saw the offers he was getting. So realizing the limited possible return, what else *could* be gained?
With no superstar going to be received, perhaps they tried to send Carp somewhere he had the best chance for success and happiness. This could positively impact how other free agents look at the Mariners as a possible destination. That can’t hurt.