Do You See What a Metaphysical Can of Worms the Cactus League Is? Giants at Mariners
Brandon Maurer vs. Barry Zito, 7:05pm
What is it for, exactly? How much can you glean from watching a game in Arizona in March? I don’t hate baseball-in-Arizona – not at all. But why do we get pitchers prepared to throw in May in cold, damp Seattle by having them throw in warm, dry Arizona in March? It’s not without its advantages, of course, but this simulacrum does something to those ensnared in it. So accustomed to taking the field around mid-day, the M’s trundled on to a diamond already occupied by their own minor leaguers. Joe Saunders faced off against Tai Walker, and there were umpires and box scores and everything. Saunders doesn’t seem to be in any danger of being bumped out of the rotation, but Brandon Maurer soldiers on, simultaneously in and out of the running for rotation slot #5. Time slows down. A diminutive man is paid handsomely to continue his baseball-themed performance art in Florida, and we all applaud. Bonderman has always been at war with Garland. This is your brain on Cactus League. Any questions?
Today’s line-up:
1: Saunders, CF
2: Gutierrez, DH
3: Morales, 1B
4: Morse, LF
5: Seager, 3B
6: Bay, RF
7: Shoppach, C
8: Miller, SS
9: Franklin, 2B
SP: Brandon Maurer
Today’s game (and the rest of the Cactus League starts) will be broadcast by the M’s radio network. No more delayed starts, and no more “I guess I’ll check out the A’s broadcast crew’ situations. Tonight’s game is also on live TV, so tune in and check out the prospect who’s leapfrogged some of his more heralded teammates this spring. Last year, it was Erasmo Ramirez, and this year it’s Maurer – some of that is age and experience (both Erasmo and Maurer had been in the minors for a few years), but some of it, honestly, has to do with Hultzen and Paxton stumbling a bit. To be fair, Hultzen was brilliant in yesterday’s AAA/AA game, but that’s not the kind of game we thought he’d be pitching in this spring after looking at his AA stats. The other way to look at it is that our expectations were so, so high for the “Big Three” that it’s noteworthy when a pitcher with more experience may get to the majors sooner. Expectations aren’t a bad thing, especially when you’re a Mariners fan and need something to look forward to, but I have to remind myself that Hultzen was drafted in June of 20 freaking 11.
Joe Saunders gave up 2R on 8H with 8Ks in 6IP which I think proves my point about this whole spring training malarkey.
It’s People. The CACTUS LEAGUE IS MADE OF PEOPLE! Mariners at Athletics
Hisashi Iwakuma vs. AJ Griffin
The M’s 5th starter/last pitching roster spot continues tomorrow as Brandon Maurer gets one last shot before presumably heading over to minor league camp. If that “battle” is a bit overblown, today’s game may produce gale-force ennui. Today, it’s just Hisashi Iwakuma getting some work in opposite AJ Griffin of Oakland. I’ve written about Griffin already this spring, and while reports of Iwakuma’s stamina and recovery time are encouraging, he’s something of a known entity, and thus the only way this game would capture our attention is if something bad happens. Perhaps it’s for the best that we get no local radio broadcast and no pitch fx data today.
Your line-up:
1: Saunders, RF
2: Wells, CF
3: Ibanez DH
4: Morse, LF
5: Smoak, 1B
6: Montero, C
7: Ackley, 2B
8: Andino, SS
9: Miller, 3B
SP: Iwakuma
Why I Don’t Care Too Much About The Opening Day Roster
I spent the last week and a half or so in Phoenix, bouncing between the SABR Analytics Conference, the WBC, Cactus League match-ups, and our FanGraphs staff weekend. During those 11 days, I found myself in a number of conversations about which players were going to make the opening day roster. With one exception, my overall opinion is that it just doesn’t really matter.
On one hand, the “competition” for the final two spots in the rotation is kind of silly. There’s a pretty good case to be made that Erasmo Ramirez is the Mariners second best starting pitcher, and the idea that they might begin the year with him in Triple-A is the kind of thing that is easy to mock, especially considering the competition. The idea that a Major League team is having trouble deciding whether they are better off with Ramirez or Blake Beavan in the rotation is kind of sad. But, at the same time, when talent gaps are as large as they are between those two, bad decisions are usually temporary.
Even if the Mariners decide to go with a Beavan/Garland combo in the 4th and 5th spots in the rotation to start the year, it won’t take long before one of three things inevitably happens:
1. Either Beavan or Garland (or both) will pitch poorly and the team will start looking for a replacement, with Ramirez being the very obvious guy to get their spot.
2. A member of the starting rotation will get injured, opening the door for Ramirez to step into the role he should have been given all along.
3. Beavan and Garland will pitch better than expected, and the cost of choosing an inferior pitcher over Ramirez will be negligible.
You’re just not going to see the Mariners let those two guys throw 100 terrible innings before making the switch. They might not even get 25. If either one struggles out of the gates, they’ll be on a very short leash, and the overall effect is likely that Ramirez will cede ~20 to 30 innings to a pitcher who isn’t as good. Even if we’re very high on Ramirez and very low on Beavan and Garland, the maximum gap you can project is probably something in the range of one run per nine innings pitched. Over ~30 innings, you’re looking at less than half a win. Having the wrong starter in the rotation for April would be annoying, but it wouldn’t be catastrophic.
And that’s why I’m okay with Garland making the team, even if he’s probably not a particularly good pitcher anymore. Pitching depth is important. The Mariners don’t have much, despite the hype around “the big three/four”, and if Garland gives them even 100 useful innings this year, it’s an improvement over the alternatives. I’m less okay with Beavan getting a spot over Ramirez when there’s no real reason to prefer a guy who is just clearly worse, but again, if we’re right about the talent gap, that mistake won’t last long. A decision to choose Beavan over Ramirez might be one that signifies that the people deciding who makes the rotation might not be the right people to lead the team long term, but the actual move is likely not one that will have a major impact on the team in either the short term or the long term.
I see this year’s rotation question as not that different from last year’s 3B/LF decision. Chone Figgins and Mike Carp were both inferior players to Kyle Seager, but because of the team’s desire to squeeze whatever blood they could from that turnip, Seager found himself on the bench for opening day. That was dumb. That also lasted all of one day, as Carp’s injury in game one opened the door for Seager to become a regular and Figgins lost his job as soon as Carp got back. Even if the team picks two worse pitchers than Ramirez to start the fourth and fifth games of the season, my guess is that the alignment won’t last long, and Ramirez will be in the rotation when it becomes painfully obvious that their best team involves him starting every fifth day.
The one battle where there actually is some long term impact for the franchise is in the outfield. It’s basically a given at this point that the Mariners are going to keep Jason Bay, which will necessitate trading Casper Wells, since they’ve decided to punt a roster spot just to have Raul Ibanez serve as Mike Sweeney 2.0. In a vacuum, I don’t have a problem with giving Bay a shot to resurrect his career. If he gets a majority of his at-bats against lefties, I wouldn’t be shocked if he was a semi-useful platoon guy. He’s got a decent approach at the plate and might actually get on base enough vs LHPs to justify some playing time.
But, of course, the odds that he’s actually a better player than Wells right now are slim to none, and keeping Bay means that Wells is going to get dumped. And that’s just silly. With Franklin Gutierrez‘s continuing inability to play regularly, having extra outfielders who can handle CF is a significant advantage. Punting a guy who can play CF would be weird even if Bay was demonstrably better than Wells, which he isn’t. It’s especially weird for a team that is still building for the future, because whatever value the Mariners think Bay might bring to the team is going to be short lived, while Wells is a 28-year-old with some theoretical upside who isn’t anywhere close to free agency. One of these two make sense for a team with a brittle CF, and one of these two make sense for a young team that probably won’t contend for a playoff spot this year. That one is likely to end up on the Astros, Mets, Yankees, or some other team that recognizes that Wells is a useful role player and picks him up for a song. That’s going to be frustrating, and will make the organization worse long term.
But the pitching stuff? That probably doesn’t really matter all that much. If the M’s pick Beavan and Garland over Ramirez, it will be dumb, but probably won’t move the needle in a meaningful way. It will be more evidence that the talent evaluators in charge shouldn’t really get the benefit of the doubt anymore, but in terms of wins and losses, it’s probably not worth having any kind of extreme reaction to.
Players Remain Trapped in Cactus League They Do Not Understand: Rangers at Mariners
Blake Beavan vs. Justin Grimm, 1:05pm
Yesterday Erasmo Ramirez pitched six excellent innings, showing he could remain effective deep into games and logging the longest pitching performance of the Spring. Blake Beavan tries to match that today in a home start versus Texas. Felix Hernandez will get some innings in, but he’ll play in a minor league game so the Rangers don’t get too familiar with him, though there is the matter of him having faced the Rangers dozens of times in his career. Still, Cactus League can’t be understood using traditional logic. MLB logic is to spring training as Beethoven is to Indonesian gamelan.
Blake Beavan is clearly a step behind Jon Garland and/or Jeremy Bonderman in the race for the #5 spot (I’m going to tell myself that Erasmo has the #4 spot locked-up. I don’t believe it’s that cut and dried, but I don’t want to worry about that today.), but he’s had a very interesting spring. For the second straight season, he’s increased his arm angle, meaning he’s delivering the pitch from a more over-the-top angle and less side-arm. I’d forgotten this, but when he came up, his pitch fx-recorded release point was under 6 feet (5.6′). That’s kind of remarkable given Beavan is 6’7″ tall and starting from a mound. He moved that average release point up significantly last year (to 5.9-6′), and so far in Spring, it’s up even more – to 6.3′. That doesn’t mean that his pitches have less horizontal movement though – the way Stephen Pryor or even Felix Hernandez’s do. Instead, he’s getting more armside run on his sinker and fastball. Whether this is good, bad or indifferent remains to be seen, but Beavan wanted to change in this offseason, and thus far, it looks like he’s actually changed. His sinker always generated some groundballs, but his four-seamer was an extreme fly-ball pitch, and since it was put into play so often, Beavan was a fly-ball pitcher overall. The sample’s tiny, but Beavan’s four-seamer is getting a few more GBs thus far. It’s something to track, even if he starts the year in Tacoma.
Some good news: Franklin Gutierrez returns to the line-up today. The M’s have helpfully put Ibanez and Jason Bay in the OF corners to give Blake more motivation to stay on top of the ball and keep it down in the zone, however.
Today’s line-up:
1: Gutierrez, CF
2: Seager, 3B
3: Morales, DH
4: Ibanez, LF
5: Smoak, 1B
6: Bay, RF
7: Shoppach, C
8: Ackley, 2B
9: Andino, SS
SP: Beavan
The Cactus League Pushes Inexorably Onward: Mariners at Rockies
Erasmo Ramirez vs. Someone, 1:05pm
The subtext in Greg Johns’ story here is pretty clear – the last rotation spot seems to be a contest now between Blake Beavan and today’s starter, Erasmo Ramirez. The two reclamation projects each pitched yesterday, and this weekend it’s the M’s youngsters turn to lay claim to the #5 spot. I hope I’m wrong about this. Erasmo Ramirez has clearly – clearly – earned the rotation spot based on his work down the stretch last year, and he’s done nothing this spring to indicate that his performance was a fluke.
Might he regress? Sure. His K rate exceeded his minor league rate (not his MLE, but his raw K rate in the minors) and his walk rate dropped. But so what? Regress it and you’ve still got a very very good starter. His home run rate could increase too, but it’d still be better than Beavan’s, and it would quite likely be better than Garland’s, even if Garland’s “back” from his shoulder woes. Erasmo’s quite good, and the M’s could use a good pitcher to slot in behind Felix and Iwakuma.
So the Dutch stomped all over the M’s yesterday as old marc w favorite Wlad Balentien hit a towering 3 run HR in the first to set the tone. Jon Garland got hit hard, but he did rack up a strangely high number of strikeouts. Franklin Gutierrez is still sidelined with a leg injury, though the plan is apparently for him to return to the line-up tomorrow.
The line-up for today’s 1:05pm start:
1: Saunders, CF
2: Seager, 3B
3: Morales, 1B
4: Morse, LF
5: Montero, DH
6: Peguero, RF
7: Sucre, C
8: Franklin, 2B
9: Ryan, SS
SP: Erasmo Ramirez
Cactus League Game vs. Angels, WBC Practice vs. the Netherlands
Jeremy Bonderman vs. Tommy Hanson, 1:05pm, plus Jon Garland vs. Tom Stuifbergen
Yesterday’s cactus league game saw dark-horse rotation candidate Brandon Maurer go four shutout innings in the M’s comeback win over the Reds. Today, two more competitors for that job take the hill. Bonderman seems to be a step behind, without the great (BABIP) results Garland’s racked up, and without the trail of “Garland is throwing the ball really well” stories in the press. Thus, today’s start is a pretty big one for the ex-Tiger. There were reports he touched 93mph recently, but he’s averaged 90 in his pitch fx games this spring. Garland seems to have the inside track on the job, from reading between the lines of the stream of positive comments we’ve heard about him. If Garland’s really healthy and if his DIPS-beating stuff is tanned, rested and ready to take on the AL, I can’t worry about it too much. Brandon Maurer isn’t out of a job, and it’s not like I’m going to complain about being able to see him in Tacoma. But a team like the M’s needs to think about getting some of their prospects some experience, and Maurer’s the last one standing. Garland isn’t terribly likely to stick around when the M’s contend, but Maurer is.
That said, if one or both of the M’s reclamation projects pan out, that’s fine. I’m still not sure how they fit both on the roster, especially as Wedge said they didn’t want a long reliever. Bumping Beavan back to Tacoma is one thing, but nobody’s bumping Erasmo Ramirez (they better not, anyway). Given Joe Saunders lackluster performance thus far, they can and should keep Bonderman around as long as possible, however. The other remaining battle is, of course, for the last outfield spot. Casper Wells shook off a neck injury to return to action the other day, and he’ll be playing the Dutch in Peoria today. In that game, Wells bats third and plays CF while Jason Bay leads off again and DH’s. Nick Franklin tries to put yesterday’s defensive misadventures behind him against the Angels, but he’ll do so from the 2B position, not SS. Carlos Triunfel, who seems to have registered good reviews on his defense (largely due to his 70-75 grade arm), starts at SS.
Franklin Gutierrez hasn’t been in the line-up the past few days due to, well, you know. Thankfully, the injury is said to be quite minor, and he’s been participating in drills, just not in games. That’s great to hear, but it does follow the pattern we’ve seen pretty much every time – rest, followed by ‘it’s nothing’ statements indicating that he’ll be back in no time, followed by ‘setbacks.’ It’s just ‘tightness in his legs’ so it doesn’t seem to have any connection to the pectoral injury last year or to the IBS problems the year before so, uh, yay?
The M’s optioned Alex Liddi today, and sent John Hicks and Stefen Romero to minor league camp. Hicks opened eyes with his defense and ingratiated himself with the city of Seattle by talking about his childhood friendship with Russell Wilson, but he’s still not played AA baseball yet. Stefen Romero had a very slight chance at the roster if the M’s found him a position or if he impressed on defense. That didn’t really happen, but it’s a moot point anyway after his oblique injury. The 2 HR, 5 RBI game showed that he’s got a legitimate bat, and we may see him later on this year. Liddi played quite well for Italy, and though the Azzuri came up just short against the Dominicans the other day, both the player and the team gave a good account of themselves. Liddi homered in warm-up games against Jered Weaver, and he hit well in the early games of the WBC, but, like Romero, he wasn’t really in line for a bench spot because the only back-up infielder needs to be an up-the-middle defender. Welcome back to Tacoma, Alex.
The full line-ups:
Vs. Angels:
1: Saunders, LF
2: Franklin, 2B
3: Ibanez, DH
4: Smoak, 1B
5: Montero, C
6: Morban, RF
7: Triunfel, SS
8: Catricala, 3B
9: F. Martinez, CF
SP: Bonderman
Vs. the Kingdom of the Netherlands:
1: Bay, DH
2: Ackley, 2B
3: Wells, CF
4: Peguero, RF
5: Shoppach, C
6: Thames, LF
7: Andino, SS
8: Jacobs, 1B
9: Miller, SS
SP: Garland
Stuifbergen
Cactus League Game 19, Red at Mariners (Plus B Game vs. Cleveland)
Joe Saunders vs. Homer Bailey, 1:05pm
Ok, Saunders. The last time we saw you in Peoria you were throwing 82mph gas. Let’s see something a little more April-ready from you today. James Paxton starts the B game, and while we won’t get any velocity data, and while the results don’t matter, I’d sure like to hear that he looked like himself again.
In the cactus league game, Casper Wells gets a rare start in CF. I’m glad he’s getting an opportunity to demonstrate his utility. Carlos Triunfel moves around to 3B today for much the same reason – he’s got an outside shot at the utility infield job we’ve all assumed was Robert Andino’s. Yesterday’s homer probably helped Carlos’ cause.
Line-up vs. Cin:
1: Seager, 2B
2: Wells, CF
3: Morales, DH
4: Morse, RF
5: Smoak, 1B
6: Peguero, LF
7: Sucre, C
8: Triunfel, 3B
9: Ryan, SS
SP: Saunders
Dustin Ackley’s at 1B in the B game, with Nick Franklin at SS (Brad Miller shifts to 3B) and over-slot 2012 draft pick Timmy Lopes at 2B.
Spring Training Pitch FX Reconnaissance
It’s been said so often: spring training means nothing. Pitchers are working on arm strength, on new pitches. They’re facing high-A hitters They throw predictable sequences. You can fill in the litany.
It’s also pointed out, especially by people like me, “they’re playing in Surprise/Peoria, so we’ll get pitch fx data!” And, cowed as you are by the dogmatic assertions in the former point, you start to wonder if there’s any meaning in the latter one. I can’t really answer that for you; the customer is king and all of that crap. But I do want to take a look at what we’ve seen so far from the pitch fx systems both in the M’s home park of Peoria and in the Rangers/Royals complex in Surprise.
It’s important to remember that while we have some really cool data to look at, we don’t have the pitcher’s intention. How much that matters is sort of a personal preference thing – I can’t imagine why a pitcher would want to ‘practice’ a much worse version of his normal fastball, but as every actual pitcher would be the first to point out, *I’m a $%$ing blogger* not a pitcher. It’s an unassailable point, really. Beyond velocity, we don’t know if a pitch that someone debuts against a Padre minor leaguer indicates a new arrow in his quiver or just something he was messing around with for the lulz. Spring training’s long, and you can’t just discount the lulz factor. So herewith are some things that have caught my eye, and by my eye, I mean ‘pitch fx cameras.’ I’ve grouped them into categories that are essentially judgement-based; there’s no pitch fx algorithm for weirdness or divergence from previous pattern. We’re also not looking at the results. Once you’ve cut out most road appearances and then removed fouls/called pitches, you’re looking at something like ten pitches from which you try and deduce tendencies and the ever-elusive ‘stuff.’ No thanks. Ok, enough with the caveats: it’s mid-March, let’s look at something:
The Overachievers:
Brandon Maurer – Maurer came into the spring with a lot less hype than his 2012 Jackson Generals rotation mates, and this despite the fact that it was Maurer who was bestowed with the “Southern League Pitcher of the Year” award. It’s not really a slight on the Californian, as he shared the rotation with the M’s “Big Three” prospects for half the year, and saw the 5th spot bounce between Andrew Carraway who was brilliant in AA and Anthony Fernandez, who was very effective after Carraway moved up to Tacoma. Due to injury-plagued seasons in 2011 and 2010, Maurer was working on re-building arm strength, and he did that – garnering raves for his 91-94mph fastball and solid breaking balls and developing change.
What he’s done this spring: Maurer’s averaged nearly 95mph on his four-seam fastball, touching 97 briefly. We haven’t seen much of him, but what we’ve seen has been impressive. He’s throwing four pitches (five if you count a two-seam fastball), sustaining his velo for at least a couple of innings, and showing decent command. That’s better than his vaunted “Big Three” teammates, frankly, and it’s encouraging for M’s fans.
The Maybe-They’re-Just-Working-On-Stuff Underachievers:
James Paxton – When last we saw the Canuck, he was pitching in the Arizona Fall League, and throwing rather well. He *averaged* almost 95mph with his fastball in the AFL, touching 96 briefly in his first start and sitting 92-95 at the end of the month in Surprise. You can debate how much these starts mean – they came at the end of a full AA season, so it’s possible they represent a *conservative* estimate of his true-talent velo early or mid-way through a full season. On the other hand, he’d missed some time due to a knee injury, and knew he was throwing only 3 innings or so, so it’s possible these figures represent something more like what we’d see from a rested Paxton as a reliever. Either way, we’d learn more in spring training, right?
What he’s done this spring: Uh, yeah. Isolate 2013 data, and you’ve got a lefty averaging just under 91mph. That’s by no means disappointing in the abstract, but it was just a few months ago that he was throwing 95. Where’d that go? Again, it’s possible that he took a long break after the AFL (it would’ve been warranted) and he’s re-building arm-strength. We didn’t get pitch fx data on his last outing against Oakland…the, uh, one where he got pounded. Maybe the next time we see him he’ll be in the 93-95 region and we’ll all laugh about this, but for now, he qualifies for this list.
Joe Saunders – The veteran lefty has never been a velocity guy. Pretty much the dictionary definition of a pitch-to-contact lefty, Saunders has actually seen his velocity dip in recent years with no real impact on his stats. He threw one game in a pitch fx park in the spring of 2012, and averaged 89, touching 91 here and there.
What he’s done this spring: Oh my. The fastest pitch on the (brief) day was 85? Fastballs (here given the unintentional figleaf of ‘change-ups’) at 81-83? What’s this all about? We haven’t seen much of Saunders this spring, as he’s pitched in some road games, but then the M’s weren’t seriously evaluating him – he’s essentially penciled in as a starter. If he wants to practice his 83mph fastball, well, he’s earned that, right? I’d like to think so. I’m just trying to understand why a pitcher would throw at 80%. It’s possible he takes his off-seasons literally, and doesn’t throw much at all – maybe he uses the spring to get ready for the season. That seems odd to me, given that other pitchers don’t seem to demonstrate such a pattern, and Saunders himself was touching 91 like it was a regular MLB start back in mid-March of 2012. Maybe 2013 is totally different given the Mariners-ness of it, and maybe he was inspired watching Brian Moran, but it bears watching closely the rest of the spring.
We’ll get to see some new data on Saunders today, and we’ll hopefully hear about Paxton as well – he’s starting a “B” game against Cleveland today as well.
The Trying-Something-New Guys:
Taijuan Walker’s cutter: Walker’s always been a fastball/curveball guy, but he showed up this spring with the bones of a nice cutter – he threw one in the game against San Diego on 2/23, and then again against the Rockies in early March. Jason Parks of BP was on site for his start against Cleveland where he says he threw a pair of them. The pitch is a low-90s (92-93) fastball that’s got much less armside run than his normal fastball. Like any cutter, it’s essentially splitting the difference between a fastball and a slider, with velocity a bit like a fastball (but not quite as fast) and movement more akin to a slider (breaking away from a right-handed batter, but not as much as a slider/curve). I don’t know what Walker and the M’s plan for this pitch is in 2013, but I look forward to seeing it in Tacoma. Given the uncertainty surrounding his curveball – whether they’ll stick with the ‘new’ spike grip or let him throw it the way he did in 2012 – it might be nice to see what this new pitch does to his batted ball ratios and K rates. Or maybe he shelves it for the year and focuses on the curve and change-up. Like I said, I’m just a blogger.
Stephen Pryor’s slow curve: Stephen Pryor’s career was rather famously saved when he was moved up to AA despite stinking up the joint with High Desert. Once in the Southern League, pitching coach Lance Painter taught him a cutter/slider (I’d definitely call it a slider) and got his mechanics in order and he was on his way to Seattle in short order. His pitch fx data shows that he threw a few curves in 2012, but I certainly don’t remember any. At 80-81mph, I probably just assumed they were sliders. Today he threw two pitches that were clearly, unmistakably curves – they came in around 72mph and featured vertical break completely unlike his slider. If he had that pitch before, I haven’t seen it. If this is the same curveball he threw a few times in 2012, well, it’s quite a bit different now. I’m not sure if this is an attempt to improve his splits or just something he learned watching Tom Wilhelmsen throw, but it’s interesting. If he throws this during the season, he’d have a velocity differential of well over 20 MPH between his fastball and slow breaker. That’s not unheard of, but it’s pretty rare. Clayton Kershaw comes close to this, but there are a few relievers who have differentials over 20mph (Mitchell Boggs of the Cardinals is one) but they hardly ever throw the curve; they’ve got other, faster breaking balls, just as Pryor does.
Anything else that you’ve heard about or seen?
Cactus League Game 18, Mariners at Royals
Hisashi Iwakuma vs. Ervin Santana, 1:05pm
I’d talk about this match-up between Cactus League heavyweights, but when you get right down to it, this is practice baseball in which Jason Bay bats leadoff (again) and where Robert Andino starts. It’s not nothing, but there’s no Felix and it doesn’t involve any of the pitchers battling for the final rotation spot.
So if you’ll indulge me, I wanted to talk about this. Jeff Sullivan’s leaving Lookout Landing, and while he’ll be writing here from time to time (woohoo), I’m going through withdrawal symptoms right now and it’s the early morning the day after his announcement. For many, Jeff’s writing kept them attached to this star-crossed team, especially if you’d moved away from the Northwest, or if you had a natural aversion to emotional investments in failing enterprises. I’m too far gone for that – if you could stay a fan through the Argyros years, a decade or so of futility almost felt familiar and comfortable, like a well-worn pair of the worst hiking boots ever sold. But it would’ve been worse – immeasurably worse.
The community he created and shaped was unlike anything I’ve ever seen on the internet. I’m still stunned that hundreds of people would come to together and essentially create and enforce an ethos and mores the way they did. Sure, it wasn’t for everyone, but it was pretty close to unique and it wasn’t dependent on any cabal of commenters to keep it going – new people would step forward and maintain the same basic system. At this point, there are only a handful of people there who were commenting in Lookout Landing’s first days (and from Sullivan’s first blog, Leone for Third), but it didn’t matter. The whole thing reflected Jeff’s idea of what a baseball community could be, and very early on, he didn’t have do too much to keep it in line. People just found it, people who didn’t just want to emote or make psychological judgements about ballplayers. People who care a lot about proper grammar, evidently.
I simply can’t imagine what it was like for Jeff to do this essentially every day for nine years. I can’t imagine staying up to write game recaps with win-expectancy charts for another 8-3 loss to the Angels or whoever. I can’t imagine trying to be creative as you watch one front office implode, and then watch another stumble a bit in the face of the sky-high (maybe too high) expectations we all put on them. I can’t imagine cranking out that much content and have it remain readable and funny. People talk about how amazing it is to see something like Barry Bonds stats from 2000-2003, or Pedro Martinez’s 1999-2000 peak, or maybe Bob Gibson/Sandy Koufax’s great years in the 1960s. The analogy isn’t perfect, and I get that, but after writing a tiny bit these past few years I feel like I have a better sense of how apposite it is: Jeff Sullivan has been Koufax level for years. I’ll miss the daily dose of it, but I’m thrilled that he’ll be posting here, and I’m thrilled I can still read plenty of Sullivania at Fangraphs. Koufax was the product of a time when easing back on innings or workload was the sign of weakness. I’m really glad Jeff’s backing off before he got too burned out to do this at all anymore.
If you look at the starting line-up here, scroll down to the pitchers – the guys eligible to come in and work an inning after Iwakuma. There’s righty Dominic Leone, who pitched for Everett last year and, predictably, hasn’t made an appearance in big-league camp this year. I just…wonder what it was that caused the M’s to pluck him from the back fields today. I know it’s too much to hope he’s the third pitcher used today, but I’m going to hope for it anyway. C’mon Leone, we believe in you.
The line-up:
1: Bay, LF
2: Seager, 3B
3: Morse, 1B
4: Ibanez, DH
5: Saunders, CF (Welcome back, Michael)
6: Shoppach, C
7: Peguero, RF
8: Andino, SS
9: Triunfel, 2B
SP: Iwakuma
Cactus League Game 17: Diamondbacks at FELIX HERNANDEZ
King Felix vs. Patrick Corbin, 1:05pm
Happy Felix day. After an off day, the M’s try to regain momentum in their push for the Golden Saguaro by venting their frustrations on the gritty Arizona Diamondbacks. Felix makes his second start of the spring after looking pretty sharp against the Royals. The DBacks counter with lefty Pat Corbin who rose up through the minors and made 17 starts in the big leagues last year. Nowhere near as heralded as Tyler Skaggs (with whom he was traded in the Dan Haren deal), and with less raw stuff than Trevor Bauer, he was something of a surprise last year after dominating in AA and pitching reasonably well in the awful run environment of Reno. He uses a low-90s fastball, a good curve ball and a change-up to get an above-average number of strikeouts. Home runs have been a bit of a problem, but it’s not all a product of his home parks: he pitched much better in Arizona than on the road, and gave up only one HR in his brief time with the Aces. Instead, he’s just been prone to mistakes – he’s given up HRs on his sinker and curve, two pitches that have generated very high GB rates for him overall.
The M’s line-up:
1: Bay, RF
2: Ackley, 2B
3: Morales, 1B
4: Smoak, DH
5: Thames, LF
6: Montero, C
7: Miller, 3B
8: Morban, CF
9: Ryan, SS
SP: FELIX!